GOP fail: Moore leads McConnell and Trump’s Strange 51-32 in AL

· August 21, 2017  
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Donald Trump shakes hands with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky., during a ceremony in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington | Carolyn Kaster | AP Images


Just how badly are voters starving for true conservative change embodied through a man whose character they can proudly support? Well, according to the latest poll, Judge Roy Moore is leading a sitting senator (who has the support of the president) by 20 points headed into the Sept. 26 runoff.

Last Tuesday, Roy Moore edged out Senator Luther Strange 39 percent to 33 percent in the GOP primary. However, landing the top spot in the first round doesn’t always guarantee a win in the runoff. That is why the latest poll from JMC Analytics is so earthshattering. The poll conducted several days after the primary shows Judge Moore leading Strange 51-32 percent, with 17 percent remaining undedicated.

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For Strange not to have gained a single point with the 28 percent of the other candidates from Round 1 now up for grabs is astounding, especially given that the judge has now hit the 50 percent mark. Moore is leading by 51-26 among those who voted for the “also-rans” and has particularly consolidated the support of Mo Brooks in the congressman’s home base of Huntsville.  

Strange’s woes are exacerbated by the fact that 68 percent of the Alabama GOP electorate identifies as evangelical Christian, easily enough to conceivably give Moore an impenetrable majority in the runoff. Moore is leading by 30 points among evangelicals, while Strange is only ahead by three points among the minority of non-evangelical voters.

Moore’s support is so broad that he even leads Strange in Mobile and Birmingham, while crushing him in the rural areas. Amazingly, contrary to public perception, Moore’s strongest support comes from voters younger than 54. He’s leading by 50 points among voters younger than 35 and by 46 points among voters aged 35-54.  

What is even more revealing is that Trump’s endorsement of Strange has fallen flat on Alabama voters, even though they overwhelmingly supported the president — both in the presidential primary and general election. 

Only 25 percent of voters said Trump’s endorsement made them more likely to vote for Strange, while 51 percent said it made no difference and 23 percent said it made them less likely to support him.

This demonstrates that any advantage of Trump’s endorsement is already baked into Luther’s 32 percent in this latest JMC Analytics poll, and that any further involvement from the president is meaningless.

What did influence the respondents in this poll? When voters were asked about McConnell’s support for Strange, 45 percent said it made them less likely to support him, while only 10 percent said they were more likely to vote for him with the support of the party leader.

Therein lies the need for a new party.

What does it tell you when 4.5 times as many people view the endorsement of the Senate leader as a negative than a positive … in that party’s own primary? Yet, rather than learning from this experience, Republicans will continue to circumvent the base. Whereas Democrats harness the power of their base to promote their agenda, Republicans circumvent their base so they can promote the other side’s agenda.

That is the Republican Party’s loss. Now it’s time to return the favor and begin electing candidates that have zero allegiance to the party and its donors and are committed to forging a new path. It’s what the voters want.

Editor’s note: Daniel Horowitz has endorsed Roy Moore in the Senate election in Alabama.  

Author: Daniel Horowitz

Daniel Horowitz is a senior editor of Conservative Review. Follow him on Twitter @RMConservative.