Yesterday I outlined why Fox News’ Alabama Senate poll of registered voters was useless in determining the state of the race to replace Jeff Sessions. Today, a poll of 3,000 likely voters in the race shows Judge Roy Moore leading Democrat Doug Jones by double digits.
As I explained yesterday, a poll of likely voters is a more accurate representation of any race compared to registered voters. Especially a race that is now less than 60 days before the Dec. 12 special election.
The Raycom News Network poll shows Moore with a commanding 51-40 percent lead over Jones, with 9 percent undecided.
Jonathan Gray of Strategy Research, the firm that conducted the poll for Raycom, outlined the challenges facing the Democrat Jones.
“I think the challenge for the Jones campaign is bigger than what these numbers show,” Gray said. “Even if he were able to close the gap, how do you turn out Democrats in a state that hasn’t had a viable Democratic Party in almost a dozen years?”
The Fox News poll earlier in the week was quickly seized upon by both progressive and establishment Republicans who are hoping for a Moore loss. This is especially true of The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol, who has been relentless in his attacks on Moore.
3. Moore’s defeat wouldn’t deprive GOP of Senate majority.
So why should Republican senators, donors, etc, support Moore?
A: They shouldn’t.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 18, 2017
Kristol and his ilk are not going to be happy with this polling. Conservatives, on the other hand, are.
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Robert Eno is the director of research for Conservative Review. He is a conservative from deep blue Massachusetts but now lives in Greenville, SC.