Sen. Sinema poised to complicate Arizona Senate race for Republicans and Democrats alike



Depending on how their respective candidates shape up and whose voters they can shake loose, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's entry into the Arizona Senate race could prove dicey for Democrats and Republicans alike.

Sinema nominally left the Democratic Party late last year, declaring her "independence from the broken partisan system in Washington." She continues to caucus with Democrats, contributing to their edge in the Senate. Her term ends on Jan. 3, 2025.

While Sinema has yet to formally announce she is running in the 2024 election, her team has been mulling over possible ways for her to win as an independent. The calculus appears to involve drawing more votes away from Republicans than Democrats; however, her candidacy might nevertheless split loyalties and complicate matters on the left as well.

Her political team suggested in a roadmap to victory obtained by NBC News in September that she can keep her seat by attracting 10% to 20% of Democrats, 60% to 70% of independents, and 25% to 35% of Republicans.

"If the parties nominate extremists, as expected, Kyrsten will win a majority of IND, at least a third of REP and a percentage of DEM voters — making her the first Independent to win a three-way statewide race in American history," says the document.

The situation for Republicans

Former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb are presently the two big names in the Republican field.

Lamb, an ally of former President Donald Trump, has served as sheriff of Pinal County since 2017. He refused to enforce Arizona's stay-at-home order in 2020 and stressed in his announcement video he would "stand up to the woke left," "secure our border and support our law enforcement," reported the New York Times.

Lake, whom the Hill indicated is most likely to win the GOP nomination in the battle for Sinema's seat, is undergoing something of a rebrand in an apparent effort to win over moderates and some Biden supporters.

She told a crowd of thousands last week, "I don't think you're a threat to democracy. You are a citizen just like me. ... And I know you're struggling as well. We're all struggling — there's not a gas pump out there for Republicans and one for Democrats."

Politico indicated that the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — which has not ruled out endorsing Lake — hopes she will focus on the future and not on past elections.

A GOP operative told The Hill she's doing just that: "focusing on the main thing and sprinting toward victory."

Lake brought in over 1.2 million votes in her race against Gov. Katie Hobbs in 2022, which she ultimately lost by 0.7 points. It's left to be seen whether her sprint will move the needle on that support.

A recent survey from the Republican firm National Research Inc. put Lake ahead of both Democratic challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego and Sinema in a three-way contest.

The survey had Lake in the lead with 37 points, Gallego in second with 33 points, and Sinema trailing at a distance with 19 points.

According to a poll earlier this month from the Democrat-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, Lake would alternatively receive 43% in a match up against Gallego, and the Democrat would in turn net 48%.

The pollsters also indicated in a three-way race with Gallego and Lake, Sinema would come third with 15%, whereas the Democrat and Republican would land 41% and 36% respectively.

The situation for Democrats

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats in Washington are expected to throw their weight behind Gallego. However, there are concerns about what impact a nasty challenge might have on their narrow majority.

After all, even though she is an independent, Sinema's support in the Senate will remain valuable throughout the election season and up until that time she either resumes office in 2025 or is replaced.

"I 100 percent think it's not clear because she's an incumbent," a senior Democratic strategist told The Hill. "She caucuses with the Democrats. She might not be a Democrat anymore, but she does caucus with us. I mean, so in that way, there's an incumbency there. And to the extent that she hasn't given any indication that she would stop caucusing with us, I think it puts us in a bind."

If Sinema clears the signature threshold to qualify for the ballot, then Democrats are "gonna have to make calculated decisions on how that's going to impact any legislation or deals they're gonna have to negotiate with," Matt Grodsky, former communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party, told The Hill.

"I would imagine that privately they’ll be throwing their support where they can in Democrat Ruben Gallego’s direction, because I just don’t think that their constituencies are gonna be supportive of them doing anything else," added Grodsky.

While the Democrats' concerns presently appear to be less about losing votes to Sinema and more about losing her vote in the Senate, Fred Solop, a former Northern Arizona University political science professor, told US News that her ability to make inroads with voters of either stripe should not be discounted out of hand. After all, she has yet to announce her bid for re-election and has not begun to spend any money on the race.

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Sen. Sinema, DHS Sec. Mayorkas clash over ending of Title 42 amid massive, ongoing border surge

Sen. Sinema, DHS Sec. Mayorkas clash over ending of Title 42 amid massive, ongoing border surge



Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and independent Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema expressed radically different views on the ending of Title 42 on "Face the Nation" Sunday.

"Title 42 goes away on Thursday, and everyone here in Arizona knows we are not prepared. The Biden administration had two years to prepare for this and did not do so. And our state is going to bear the brunt and migrants will be in crisis as soon as next week," said Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in an interview with moderator Margaret Brennan that aired Sunday morning.

Sinema's interview was recorded Friday at at the McCain's Institute's Sedona Forum.

"Well, I respectfully disagree with the Senator and the governor. Number one, we are prepared ... Number two, we have a migration information center that is specifically set up to communicate with state and local officials," said DHS Sec. Mayorkas in a separate interview with Brennan that also aired Sunday.

When Brennan pushed back on Mayorkas, noting Democrats control the Senate, the DHS Secretary blamed an immigration system "that hasn't been fixed since the 90s."

When Brennan pressed further, saying it seemed as if Democrats had "conceded to Republicans" on immigration, Mayorkas responded by lauding the immigration systems of Canada and Spain and saying it was "incredibly sad" the United States cannot match them.

Mayorkas told Brennan that preparation for the ending of Title 42 has been underway for a year and a half. He described its end as a "regional challenge" requiring a "regional response."

The DHS Secretary emphasized that the agency has "never been resourced appropriately."

Processing centers in Colombia and Guatemala are not set up yet, Brennan noted. Mayorkas said it "should be a matter of weeks" for the one furthest along, Colombia's, to become operational.

Mayorkas appeared to brush off statements from Sinema and Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs (D) about DHS failing to share information on numbers of migrants, processing times, bus transportation availability, and funds for emergency shelters.

Saturday, Sen. Sinema retweeted an op-ed in AZ Central saying the Biden Administration isn't doing enough to protect Arizona's border.

"The Administration should follow my and @RepCiscomani’s lead: put politics aside and secure the border," she wrote.

\u201cThe Administration should follow my and @RepCiscomani\u2019s lead: put politics aside and secure the border. \ud83d\udc47\nhttps://t.co/GB9zAnjnAc\u201d
— Kyrsten Sinema (@Kyrsten Sinema) 1683403967

Title 42, a policy enacted during the Trump administration, deterred illegal immigration by expelling migrants to their home countries based on the COVID-19 risks. Title 42 ends Thursday.

Watch CBS News moderator Margaret Brennan's full interview with DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas below.



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'What I believe is right for my state ... for the country': Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is leaving Democratic Party



Republicans may have missed an opportunity to pick up a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia this week, but Democrats will soon be missing a senator.

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has announced that she is leaving the Democratic Party, driven out by "extreme voices" driving the party "toward the fringes."

Rather than caucus with Republicans, Sinema, who started out with the Green Party, is registering as an independent — a move that will not bereave Democrats of their majority, but may nevertheless change certain dynamics in the Senate.

A Senate shake-up

Sinema posted a video to Twitter on Friday, noting that she has "joined the growing numbers of Arizonans who reject party politics by declaring my independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent."

\u201cIn a natural extension of my service since I was first elected to Congress, I have joined the growing numbers of Arizonans who reject party politics by declaring my independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent. 1/3\u201d
— Kyrsten Sinema (@Kyrsten Sinema) 1670583683

The prospective independent penned an op-ed in the Arizona Republic, saying, "There’s a disconnect between what everyday Americans want and deserve from our politics, and what political parties are offering."

"Everyday Americans are increasingly left behind by national parties’ rigid partisanship, which has hardened in recent years," wrote Sinema.

The senator suggested that both parties have failed to demonstrate "much tolerance for diversity of thought" and that "payback against the opposition party has replaced thoughtful legislating."

A liberal by any other name

After Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) won Tuesday's runoff election, the Democrats imagined they'd have 51 seats against Republicans' 49 in the Senate, plus Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote. Now, at least on paper, they're back down to 50.

Despite the ostensible power change, it may not prove too destabilizing for the Democrats.

Sinema, elected to the U.S. House in 2012 and the Senate in 2018, intimated in her op-ed that this change is cosmetic, suggesting that her work in the Senate won't be altered and that her "service to Arizona remains the same."

Along the same lines, Sinema told Politico, "Nothing will change about my values or my behavior."

"I don’t anticipate that anything will change about the Senate structure," she said, adding that she intends "to show up to work, do the same work that I always do. I just intend to show up to work as an independent.”

Sinema also intends to continue in her present committee assignments.

"I keep my eye focused on what I’m doing right now. And registering as an independent is what I believe is right for my state. It’s right for me. I think it’s right for the country," she said.

It is presently unclear whether Sinema will caucus with Democrats like independent Sens. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Angus King (Maine), reported The Hill.

Despite dropping the Democratic Party, Sinema made sure to reiterate her support for abortion, illegal so-called "Dreamers," and LGBT activism in her Arizona Republic piece.

After clarifying that she would maintain her liberal bona fides, Sinema noted also that she will prioritize securing the southern border.

In response to the news, one White House official told CNN that Sinema's departure "doesn't change much" besides the senator's own reelection calculations.

“We’ve worked with her effectively on a lot of major legislation from CHIPS to the bipartisan infrastructure law,” the unnamed official said, adding that the Biden White House has “every reason to expect that will continue."

Politico reported that Sinema, up for reelection in 2024, will now avoid a primary challenge from Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), but may ultimately face a "chaotic" general-election fight against both Republican and Democrat challengers.

The 46-year-old's current term ends on Jan. 3, 2025.

Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema says the Biden 'Administration's extension of public health emergency authorities proves the need to delay lifting Title 42'



Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is continuing to push back against the Biden administration's plan to terminate a Title 42 order.

"Following the Administration’s decision to extend the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency and federal transportation mask mandate, Sinema continued her calls for the Administration to also delay lifting the Title 42 Public Health Order until prepared with a firm, workable plan to protect Arizona communities and migrants," a press release noted.

The Administration\u2019s extension of public health emergency authorities proves the need to delay lifting Title 42. We\u2019re pushing for transparency and accountability to secure the border and ensure the health and safety of AZ communities and migrants.https://www.sinema.senate.gov/sinema-administrations-extension-public-health-emergency-proves-need-delay-lifting-title-42-protect\u00a0\u2026
— Kyrsten Sinema (@Kyrsten Sinema) 1649951675

The Biden administration extended a public health emergency related to COVID-19 for an additional 90 days, according to the New York Times.

Additionally, a requirement to wear face masks on public transportation is being extended through May 3.

"The Administration’s extension of public health emergency authorities proves the need to delay lifting Title 42 to protect the health and safety of Arizona communities and migrants," Sinema said, according to the press release.

Politicians on both sides of the political aisle have expressed concern about the plan to nix the Title 42 order — the termination of the order is set to take effect on May 23.

In a statement earlier this month, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia warned against making such a move, noting that the U.S. is already facing a flood of migrants along its southern border.

"Title 42 has been an essential tool in combatting the spread of COVID-19 and controlling the influx of migrants at our southern border. We are already facing an unprecedented increase in migrants this year, and that will only get worse if the Administration ends the Title 42 policy. We are nowhere near prepared to deal with that influx. Until we have comprehensive, bipartisan immigration reform that commits to securing our borders and providing a pathway to citizenship for qualified immigrants, Title 42 must stay in place," Manchin said in the statement.

Border security is a matter of public safety — U.S. Customs and Border Protection press releases are replete with examples of authorities catching previously convicted sex offenders.

"Joe Biden’s reckless border policies have allowed more than 2 million foreigners to enter our country illegally via the southern border," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said, according to a press release from earlier this month. "Revoking Title 42 authority will supercharge the already skyrocketing flow of illegal aliens, increasing drug, human, and sex trafficking. Biden is failing miserably to faithfully execute the law and is violating his oath of office."

Kyrsten Sinema obliterates all hope for Democrats to end the filibuster this year



Arizona Democrat Sen. Kyrsten Sinema on Thursday drove the final nail into the coffin of Democratic ambitions to overhaul U.S. elections this year, declaring in a memorable speech that she will not now, or ever, vote with her party to end the Senate's 60-vote filibuster requirement.

Restating her commitment to supporting the three-fifths vote requirement to end debate and pass legislation, the Democrat accused both her own party and Republicans of equally contributing to "spiraling division" that prevents Congress from debate and compromise.

"These deepening divisions hurt our ability to work together. ... Americans across the country know this. They see it every day, not only on social media and cable news, but at their jobs and around dinner tables," Sinema said. "We are divided. It is more likely today that we look at other Americans who have different views and see the other or even see them as enemies instead of as fellow countrymen and women who share our core values."

Sinema Delivers Senate Floor Remarks on Voting Rights, America's Divisions, and the U.S. Senatehttps://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1DXGyDMLQzNKM\u00a0\u2026
— Kyrsten Sinema (@Kyrsten Sinema) 1642093980

While the progressive senator said she supports two Democratic bills that would overhaul U.S. elections and overwrite Republican-backed state election integrity laws, she reaffirmed that she "will not support separate actions that worsen the underlying disease of division" by changing the Senate's rules for a temporary partisan advantage.

"There's no need for me to restate my long-standing support for the 60-vote threshold to pass legislation. There's no need for me to restate its role in protecting our country from wild reversals of federal policy," Sinema said. "This week's harried discussions about Senate rules are but a poor substitute for what I believe could have and should have been a thoughtful public debate at any time over the past year."

Continuing, she said, "But what is the legislative filibuster, other than a tool that requires new federal policy to be broadly supported by senators, representing the broader cross-section of Americans? ... Demands to eliminate this threshold from whichever party holds the fleeting majority amount to a group of people separated on two sides of a canyon, shouting that solution to their colleagues."

The immediate political ramifications of this speech are that President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) can no longer pretend an upcoming vote to end the filibuster and pass the so-called Freedom to Vote Act will matter. With continued Republican opposition to that bill and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and without Sinema's support to end the filibuster, the bills are dead in a 50-50 Senate, and there is nothing Democrats can do about it.

Adding insult to the injury to Schumer's plans, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) told reporters Sinema's speech was "very good, excellent."

“I think it’s the points that I’ve been making for an awful long time and she has too,” he said, according to CNN.

At least two Senate Democrats won't budge on the filibuster, and there are likely more with the same position who have remained quiet to avoid upsetting their voters.