Depending on how their respective candidates shape up and whose voters they can shake loose, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's entry into the Arizona Senate race could prove dicey for Democrats and Republicans alike.

Sinema nominally left the Democratic Party late last year, declaring her "independence from the broken partisan system in Washington." She continues to caucus with Democrats, contributing to their edge in the Senate. Her term ends on Jan. 3, 2025.

While Sinema has yet to formally announce she is running in the 2024 election, her team has been mulling over possible ways for her to win as an independent. The calculus appears to involve drawing more votes away from Republicans than Democrats; however, her candidacy might nevertheless split loyalties and complicate matters on the left as well.

Her political team suggested in a roadmap to victory obtained by NBC News in September that she can keep her seat by attracting 10% to 20% of Democrats, 60% to 70% of independents, and 25% to 35% of Republicans.

"If the parties nominate extremists, as expected, Kyrsten will win a majority of IND, at least a third of REP and a percentage of DEM voters — making her the first Independent to win a three-way statewide race in American history," says the document.

The situation for Republicans

Former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb are presently the two big names in the Republican field.

Lamb, an ally of former President Donald Trump, has served as sheriff of Pinal County since 2017. He refused to enforce Arizona's stay-at-home order in 2020 and stressed in his announcement video he would "stand up to the woke left," "secure our border and support our law enforcement," reported the New York Times.

Lake, whom the Hill indicated is most likely to win the GOP nomination in the battle for Sinema's seat, is undergoing something of a rebrand in an apparent effort to win over moderates and some Biden supporters.

She told a crowd of thousands last week, "I don't think you're a threat to democracy. You are a citizen just like me. ... And I know you're struggling as well. We're all struggling — there's not a gas pump out there for Republicans and one for Democrats."

Politico indicated that the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee — which has not ruled out endorsing Lake — hopes she will focus on the future and not on past elections.

A GOP operative told The Hill she's doing just that: "focusing on the main thing and sprinting toward victory."

Lake brought in over 1.2 million votes in her race against Gov. Katie Hobbs in 2022, which she ultimately lost by 0.7 points. It's left to be seen whether her sprint will move the needle on that support.

A recent survey from the Republican firm National Research Inc. put Lake ahead of both Democratic challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego and Sinema in a three-way contest.

The survey had Lake in the lead with 37 points, Gallego in second with 33 points, and Sinema trailing at a distance with 19 points.

According to a poll earlier this month from the Democrat-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, Lake would alternatively receive 43% in a match up against Gallego, and the Democrat would in turn net 48%.

The pollsters also indicated in a three-way race with Gallego and Lake, Sinema would come third with 15%, whereas the Democrat and Republican would land 41% and 36% respectively.

The situation for Democrats

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats in Washington are expected to throw their weight behind Gallego. However, there are concerns about what impact a nasty challenge might have on their narrow majority.

After all, even though she is an independent, Sinema's support in the Senate will remain valuable throughout the election season and up until that time she either resumes office in 2025 or is replaced.

"I 100 percent think it's not clear because she's an incumbent," a senior Democratic strategist told The Hill. "She caucuses with the Democrats. She might not be a Democrat anymore, but she does caucus with us. I mean, so in that way, there's an incumbency there. And to the extent that she hasn't given any indication that she would stop caucusing with us, I think it puts us in a bind."

If Sinema clears the signature threshold to qualify for the ballot, then Democrats are "gonna have to make calculated decisions on how that's going to impact any legislation or deals they're gonna have to negotiate with," Matt Grodsky, former communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party, told The Hill.

"I would imagine that privately they’ll be throwing their support where they can in Democrat Ruben Gallego’s direction, because I just don’t think that their constituencies are gonna be supportive of them doing anything else," added Grodsky.

While the Democrats' concerns presently appear to be less about losing votes to Sinema and more about losing her vote in the Senate, Fred Solop, a former Northern Arizona University political science professor, told US News that her ability to make inroads with voters of either stripe should not be discounted out of hand. After all, she has yet to announce her bid for re-election and has not begun to spend any money on the race.

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