Now that we're post-Labor Day, the real 2018 election push is underway...here's a primer thread for those who want real instead of partisan tribalism these final 60 days.
1) No, the polls were not wrong in 2016. In fact, the RCP national average almost nailed the final popular vote. Plus, most of the battleground state polls were within MOE. The polls performed pretty well in 2016.
2) Who got it way wrong in 2016 were election forecasters that predicted what the polling data meant. Largely, they assumed Hillary's organizational edge would win these MOE states like Obama did in 2012. Except she was far more disliked than Obama.
3) Now, that doesn't mean the polls are gospel in 2018. Mid-term elections are lower turnout elections, which can make them tougher to forecast because last minute voter energy can amp or diminish a lower turnout sample more so than a larger one.
4) Also, generic congressional ballot polling cannot take into account the balkanization of the electorate. The electorate is more balkanized than even polarized. Meaning there are so many places, even in a wave year, neither side can win no matter what.
5) So, for me as an analyst, for now I'm putting a 3-5 point handicap into generic congressional ballot polling to account for that balkanization. I may learn in November that wasn't enough, or too much. We'll see. Speaking of we'll see...
6) All the economic factors are in the GOP's favor this fall. But all the presidential indicators favor the Democrats. We're also seeing huge Dem turnout surges, especially in low turnout state legislative special elections. However...
...aside from the Alabama race with a problematic candidate, we haven't seen the major road wins (or political flips) heading into this cycle the GOP pulled off leading up to the 2010 cycle, for example. Which is why our official election 2018 motto is...
..."whoever's dumbest last loses." Meaning both sides are so balkanized, they're a powder keg waiting to be set off by the stupidest on the other. Right now, unless Republicans engage in some real policy fights its base cares about, they're going to be the dumbest last.
Everyone voting on Russian Collusion theories, and Trump is Hitler on the Left is already baked into the formula. Everybody voting on Fake News, NFL kneelers, and don't impeach Trump on the Right is as well.
So this election is going to be decided from here by people who largely loathe both sides to some degree, and just want to know what's in it for them. The GOP has a good case to make to these voters, if they'll make it. So far, they seem hesitant to do so.
And the president wondering why folks aren't talking about 4.2% economic growth as he clowns and embarrasses himself on social media daily, is obviously tripping over his own phallus as well.
7) This is still a winnable election for the GOP, if they're willing to do what it takes to win it. Here's what they need: stop trying to insulate yourself from Trump backlash, and push more of Trump's policies.
They cannot insulate themselves from Trump backlash. It won't go away, and POTUS feeds it regularly anyway. But right now they're getting all the backlash and little of the benefit.
The president is energizing the Democrat base, while the Republicans are depressing their own. That is the self-fulfilling making of a wave. And a wave we will see this fall unless Republicans do something next 60 days to make their case to voters.
But given how far Left the Democrats are, voters are likely to give the GOP every chance to make their case to the very end. Which is why I think we'd be wise to wait until the end to start making predictions.
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