Inside The Brand New Ballot-Chasing Operation That Helped Republicans Flip The Senate
Sentinel proved to be a difference maker in electing Trump and helping Republicans decisively take back the Senate.Sentinel proved to be a difference maker in electing Trump and helping Republicans decisively take back the Senate.Republican Bernie Moreno Takes Down Democrat Incumbent Sherrod Brown In Crucial Ohio Senate Race
Republicans flipped another seat in the race for Senate after Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno defeated incumbent Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown6 Senate seats Republicans can flip to take back the majority
Less than a week from Election Day, six crucial Senate seats remain within striking distance for Republicans.
Republicans are currently in the minority, holding 49 seats, while Democrats and Independents combined hold the remaining 51 seats. While Republicans would have to flip only two seats to win back the majority, there are several pickup opportunities for the GOP.
Despite his previous double-digit wins, Casey's polling advantage has plummeted to just a few points, which is a good sign for his Republican challenger.
The two most likely seats Republicans are looking to secure are in Montana and West Virginia. West Virginia's Senate seat is an open race between Republican Gov. Jim Justice and Democratic candidate Glenn Elliott. The candidates are running to replace Independent Sen. Joe Manchin after he announced his retirement in November 2023.
Cook Political Report has rated the Senate race in West Virginia as "solid Republican," which is reflected in the massive polling advantage Justice boasts over Elliott. In addition to the Mountain State, Republicans are enjoying some rosy poll numbers farther west.
In Montana, Republican candidate Tim Sheehy has pulled Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, who has previously won his seat by narrow margins. Recent polls put the three-term Democratic Senator at a substantial polling deficit, and Cook Political Report rated the seat "lean Republican."
Although the race is closer than the one in West Virginia, the tide has turned in Sheehy's favor, and Tester is taking notice. Tester's campaign has repeatedly labeled him "bipartisan" and has even held off from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, making him the only Democratic Senator to do so. Tester's decision to distance himself from his party is reflective of Sheehy's momentum in the red state.
While winning Montana and West Virginia would be enough for Republicans to flip the Senate, there are four more seats rated "toss-ups" that the GOP could secure.
In Michigan, Republican candidate Mike Rogers and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin are going head-to-head in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Although Slotkin initially had a several point polling advantage, Rogers has narrowed her lead and even surpassed the Democrat in some polls.
Another key race Republicans have managed to tighten is in Ohio, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown is battling GOP candidate Bernie Moreno. Although Brown has won all three of his terms by a substantial margin, Moreno has chipped away and even pulled ahead of the incumbent's increasingly narrow polling advantage.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey is facing a similar challenge from Republican candidate Dave McCormick. Casey first won in 2006 by a significant margin and easily held onto his seat for two more terms. Despite his previous double-digit wins, Casey's polling advantage has plummeted to just a few points, which is a good sign for his Republican challenger.
Further east in Wisconsin, Republican candidate Eric Hovde has gained ground against Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Like other races along the Rust Belt, Baldwin's initial polling advantage has rapidly diminished as Election Day approaches. Although the race remains tight, Republicans remain optimistic.
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Can Republicans take back the Senate? Dem strategist reveals Midwest may be the key.
Republican Senate candidates may have a leg up going into November thanks to former President Donald Trump's down-ballot momentum.
The most likely pickup opportunity for the GOP lies in Montana, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is lagging an average of seven points behind his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, according to RealClearPolling. Other Senate polls across the Blue Wall states are closer, but the Republican Party's policy priorities are tightening races that have historically been layups for the Democratic Party.
“These voters just feel a greater degree of cultural synergy with the Trump-Vance ticket, and it’s having a downwind effect," Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told Blaze News.
"These Senate candidates are in a region of the country where economic concerns such as inflation and cost of living remain paramount," Foxwell told Blaze News. "Voters simply invested a greater degree of trust in Donald Trump's perspective towards the economy, and I think we're seeing that reflected in the Senate races."
Democratic Senate candidates in the Rust Belt, such as incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, are all polling just a few points ahead of their respective Republican challengers.
Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde of Wisconsin closed in on Baldwin's nearly seven-point advantage from August to just three points in October, despite the fact that she won her seat by 5.6 points in 2012 and 10.8 points in 2018.
In the Michigan race to replace Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Republican candidate Mike Rogers slimmed Slotkin's advantage from five points in August to less than three points in October. At the same time, Stabenow won her seat by 20.8 points in 2012 and 6.5 points in 2018.
Similarly, Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania shrank Casey's eight-point lead in August to just three points in October. In contrast, Casey won his seat by 17.3 points in 2006, 9.1 points in 2012, and 13.1 points in 2018.
The Ohio Senate race reflects the same trend, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown currently scraping by with just a 2.6-point average lead over GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Previously, the three-term senator won his seat by 12.3 points in 2006, by 5.2 points in 2012, and by 6.8 points in 2018.
These polling trends across the Rust Belt and the Midwest are a reflection of a shift toward Trump but, more importantly, away from Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic policies.
“The fact of the matter is that presidential administrations get the credit when things are going well, and they shoulder the blame when things aren’t," Foxwell continued. "So when voters, not only in the Rust Belt but anywhere in the country, go to the grocery store and see the price of milk and eggs, not to mention gasoline, continue to go up, they’re going to hold the current White House occupant accountable.”
The economy ranks as the top priority, with 28% of Midwestern likely voters saying it is the most important issue in deciding their vote in November, according to the New York Times/Siena poll from Oct. 8. At the same time, 47% of Midwestern likely voters trust Trump to handle the issue they think is most important, while 45% said the same for Harris.
“This election is to be based upon economics," Foxwell told Blaze News. "Victory is going to go to the candidates, be it at the presidential level or in the Senate races, who are able to make the case they represent the straightest, most correct line to economic recovery and prosperity."
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