Horowitz: Data from India continues to blow up the ‘Delta’ fear narrative



Rather than proving the need to sow more panic, fear, and control over people, the story from India — the source of the "Delta" variant — continues to refute every current premise of COVID fascism.

The prevailing narrative from Fauci, Walensky, and company is that Delta is more serious than anything before, and even though vaccines are even less effective against it, its spread proves the need to vaccinate even more people. Unless we do that, we must return to the very effective lockdowns and masks. In reality, India's experience proves the opposite true; namely:

  1. Delta is largely an attenuated version, with a much lower fatality rate, that for most people is akin to a cold.
  2. Masks failed to stop the spread there.
  3. The country has come close to the herd immunity threshold with just 3% vaccinated.
  4. Most people are now getting cold-like symptoms from Delta, but to the extent countries hit by Delta suffered some deaths and serious illness, they could have been avoided not with vaccines and masks, but with early and preventive treatment like ivermectin.

In other words, our government is learning all the wrong lessons from India, and now Israel and the U.K. Let's unpack what we know occurred in India and now in some of the other countries experiencing a surge in cases of the Indian "Delta" variant.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) recently conducted a fourth nationwide serological test and found that 67.6% of those over 6 years old in June and July had antibodies, including 85% of health care workers. This is a sharp increase from the 24.1% level detected during the December-January study. What we can conclude definitively is that strict mask-wearing (especially among health care workers) failed to stop the spread one bit. Yet now they have achieved herd immunity and burned out the virus with just 3% vaccination (now up to 6%) with roughly one-sixth the death rate of the U.S. and the U.K. and less than one-half that of Israel.

Immediately, naysayers will suggest that somehow India is vastly undercounting the deaths because it is a shabby third-world country. However, if we are to suggest that, it would mean that so much of the data from so many other countries we use for studies must be ignored. Also, it's true that India is poor in some areas, but it is highly developed and has a very strong bureaucracy and administrative state throughout. There might be undercounting, but the notion that it can account for that wide a gap between India and the U.S./U.K. was always unlikely.

However, now that the Delta has spread to other countries like Israel and the U.K., we need not speculate who is right about India's death rate. The fact that Israel and the U.K. have so many Delta cases yet so few deaths relative to the winter spread of the original strain demonstrates that Delta is likely much weaker and India's numbers are probably close to accurate. Remember, most of India's spread, unlike in the West, occurred with Delta, long after the ancestral strain that hit the West was gone. If it really was the bloodbath some are suggesting (a tenfold undercount of deaths, in their estimation), why is the data from the U.K. showing just the opposite?

The latest data from the U.K. show that the case fatality rate for the Delta is just 0.2%, much less than the others. And we need not speculate with generalized studies. The raw data shows that since May 1, there have been approximately 1,300 deaths in the U.K. out of roughly 1.1 million confirmed cases. But those are confirmed cases. The likely infection fatality rate is much lower because now more than ever, people are avoiding testing, and the U.K. media has been reporting for weeks that the symptoms of the Delta for most people appear more like a cold.

The Guardian reports that based on data from the app-based Zoe COVID symptom study, the symptoms being reported are mainly headaches and runny nose. "People might think they've just got some sort of seasonal cold, and they still go out to parties … we think this is fueling a lot of the problem," said Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, who is leading the work on the reporting app.

The U.K. media are trying to panic people about spreading a cold, but in fact, they are reporting good news! This virus has attenuated for most people to the point that they can't even distinguish it from a cold, much less a flu. Thus, the fact that India achieved most of its immunity throughout the spread of the Delta variant actually lends a lot of credence to the fatality rate of one-sixth of that of the U.S. and the U.K., which experienced most of its deaths from the ancestral strain.

If you look at any chart from Scotland, which is now mainly over the curve, there is a complete decoupling of deaths from cases.

It looks like the Delta wave is rolling over in Scotland, with deaths nicely contained.The UK cannot be far behin… https://t.co/Jy0HlYrqz4

— Covid19Crusher (@Covid19Crusher) 1626813556.0

The same thing is being observed in Israel, which is slightly behind the curve. The country has had just 20 deaths so far in July, but again, 15 of them were of vaccinated individuals.

However, to the extent that there are cases, and the relatively rare serious cases, the vaccines have proven to be a bust in preventing them. The Western countries are relying on an exponentially higher vaccination rate than India with a much lower seroprevalence rate from infection. It's simply not working. According to Israel's Ministry of Health, the Pfizer vaccine efficacy against infection dropped 42% since the start of the inoculation drive in Israel, and efficacy against severe illness has dropped 60% among those vaccinated early on. Ditto for the United Kingdom.

Scottish data indicate those 60+yo who are vaxed are trending towards testing C19 positive & being hospitalized at… https://t.co/LGed7H8dXV

— Andrew Bostom, MD, MS (@andrewbostom) 1626890920.0

In fact, in Israel, the case rates track almost perfectly with the percentage of those vaccinated stratified by age range.

We have more data!It is now clearer than ever:*Pfizer vaccine has completely FAILED to prevent the spread.*Hence… https://t.co/GmLcySd5qH

— Ran Israeli (@RanIsraeli) 1626862961.0

Thus, the experience from India and the Delta variant teaches us the exact opposite of what the panic-mongers are pushing. Natural immunity, not vaccination, is king. Which explains the dichotomy between India and countries like Gibraltar. In Gibraltar, nearly every adult in the tiny country has been vaccinated, yet it has the third-highest per capita rate of infection in the world.

Gibraltar fully vaccinated every eligible citizen by April. Now 2.5 months later, they have the 3rd highest per ca… https://t.co/jEdIxG6dS6

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) 1626538049.0


Gibraltar's government provides vax status for all recent covid cases. I aggregated the data for residents and have… https://t.co/ipmtmzmNPu

— Teddy Petrou (@TedPetrou) 1626561122.0


Widespread immunity also likely explains why the current wave of Delta infections rapidly declined (only 2% of the… https://t.co/RxcdhjTdHR

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) 1626814594.0

The same trend appears to be playing out in Cyprus:

Cyprus currently has the most Covid cases per capita on Earth yet, before the most recent wave began, they had alre… https://t.co/GHEojcsGW2

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) 1626385071.0

In general, there is zero correlation between vaccination rates and better outcomes, and in fact, many Latin American countries with the highest vaccination rates have recently had high infection rates, and many eastern European countries with lower vaccination rates had many fewer cases than their vaccine-obsessed western European counterparts. Here in the U.S., San Francisco, which had a low infection rate until recently, has seen an explosion in cases, despite a 70% vaccination rate.

In the last month Covid cases up 800% in San Francisco. Hospitalizations up 300%Damn all of those rural white un… https://t.co/vuaYdLth6A

— Mommar (@MisterCommodity) 1626891444.0

At the same time, as I chronicled last month in great detail, even within India, the states that used ivermectin to treat COVID experienced a much sharper and quicker drop in cases in May. Imagine if the Western world used ivermectin and many other treatment options pre-emptively and prescribed them at every testing station. That is how you flatten a curve.

The lesson is clear: The only way out of this is for most people to get it, and the best way to do that safely is to make sure early treatments with drugs like ivermectin are made available and to be used even preventively for vulnerable populations. If this is really about saving lives, rather than doubling down on all of the things that have failed and distorting data and history to comport with pseudo-science, they would try the one thing they have shunned until now – actually treating the virus before people have trouble breathing.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky is correct when she says, "Nearly every death, especially among adults, due to Covid-19 is at this point entirely preventable." But the data and learned experience show that it's not because of a lack of vaccines, but a lack of treatment.

Horowitz: As the CDC rushes to experiment on children, its own data show K-12 likely have herd immunity



Nearly 42% of Americans ages 5-17 — roughly overlapping with the ages of K-12 schoolchildren — have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, according to CDC's best estimate. That observation, culled from CDC's "Estimated rates of COVID-19 disease outcomes, per 100,000" by my friend Phil Kerpen, has earth-shattering implications that refute the premise behind the CDC's continued panic over children and COVID, as well as the rush to vaccinate them despite the unknown risks.

The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices planned to hold an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss the emerging evidence of myocarditis cases among newly vaccinated teens and young adults. However, the "emergency" had to be pushed off by the retroactive holiday of "Juneteenth," itself celebrated on Saturday. In the meantime, it's totally fine to continue to vaccinating teens — in many places, requiring it — without further study, despite the fact that they likely have already achieved herd immunity. This comes even as the World Health Organization has taken the position that "Children should not be vaccinated for the moment."

We've already known that this virus is less of a threat to children than the flu. However, the latest data from the CDC show that even this mild virus (for children) is already in the rearview mirror, making the entire debate over current policy moot.

About 42% of the K-12 population had already recovered from COVID by the end of March, per CDC best estimate. That… https://t.co/tAzGAFgDNH

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) 1623982847.0

The CDC's best estimate of infections per 100,000 by the end of March is that 5- to 17-year-olds have had the highest rate of infection per 100,000. If you do the math, that adds up to 41.532%. This is earth-shattering for several reasons.

We know from most places in the country, including the Los Angeles area, that the virus essentially became extinct when they reached the 40% infection mark. The virus seemed to wane in almost every part of the country when serology tests showed about 40% with antibodies, and if the CDC is estimating that school-age children had an even slightly higher rate, it means they are certainly immune without the vaccine. In other words, not only is the virus not serious enough to experiment with a new vaccine for children, it has likely passed.

Moreover, if 42% of school-age children have already gotten the virus, despite the child abuse regimen of masking, isolation, and testing we've foisted upon them, what does that tell you about the efficacy of those voodoo "non-pharmaceutical interventions"? Many local governments are requiring children to wear masks until they get vaccinated, but clearly masks have not prevented the inevitable.

It was clear from day one that the virus had long spread throughout the country before we even recognized it. The CDC's own research on mitigating the spread of flu indicates that "the effectiveness of pandemic mitigation strategies will erode rapidly as the cumulative illness rate prior to implementation climbs above 1 percent of the population in an affected area."

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that "a National Institutes of Health research program identified seven people in states from Mississippi to Wisconsin to Pennsylvania who were infected with the new virus days or weeks before the first cases were confirmed in their areas." Thus, even if these mitigation strategies somehow work under the right circumstances, in the U.S., those horses already left the barn. Yet, here we are with over 40% already infected and we are still acting as if non-pharmaceutical interventions can prevent the spread.

Sadly, while children have already achieved herd immunity to this inconsequential virus, the mental health problems, as well as side effects from the experimental mRNA shots, will continue indefinitely. Newton-Wellesley Hospital in Newton, Massachusetts, is reporting an 80% increase in mental health-related pediatric visits to its emergency department this past year and three times the number of 8- to 18-year-old patient admissions for suicide attempts.

There is no herd immunity threshold for this problem because the senseless child abuse is continuing. My son recently ran across boys on a playground wearing masks outside in Maryland's oppressively humid climate. When he told them they don't have to wear them, they were shocked. Clearly, the parents couldn't care less about their own children, and it's all coming from the government and the media.

Now, ignorant parents are being led by a maleficent government to expand the mask abuse to experimental gene therapy. Just consider the insanity of requiring vaccines for children. According to the latest data from the CDC's VEARS, a 12- to 15-year-old male is eight times more likely to suffer from myocarditis after the second Pfizer shot than from the virus itself.

1/ Per VAERS update today, & CDC’s Covid Net via data analyst @JeanRees10: At PRESENT, “Hospitalization for myocar… https://t.co/noYCLkYSTt

— Andrew Bostom, MD, MS (@andrewbostom) 1624032284.0

According to VEARS, there are now more reported cases of chest pain resulting from the new COVID shots in just six months than from all other vaccines combined for all years.

@Autumnlilyx1 For "chest pain" (the other main presenting symptom of myocarditis) the figures are:All vaccines ev… https://t.co/RZIpdiE97n

— Jonathan Engler 🌸 (@jengleruk) 1624272187.0

To paraphrase John Kerry on the Vietnam War, how can you ask a child to be the last child to die for a lie?

Horowitz: The indefensible rush to experiment on children



Riddle me this: If the COVID vaccine for adults is so impervious and miraculous that it justifies emergency and immediate use for children after just a few months of trials, then, by definition, there is no need for children to take the vaccine. It can only potentially cause harm, since the virus doesn't affect them, when we already know that any adult has had access to the vaccine for quite some time. If it really works, there should be no concern of unvaccinated children spreading it to vaccinated adults, especially when children's transmission rates are so low to begin with. So what is motivating this frantic rush to experiment on children?

Nobody can justify an emergency use authorization for a novel mRNA vaccine on children because the risks far outweigh any potential benefits. Even if we are to trust Pfizer's own trial data (p. 27) and allow the foxes of profit to guard the academic henhouse, there is a 1-in-333 risk for a serious adverse event (SEA) from the vaccine. Their trial resulted in 5 SEAs out of 1,127 12- to 15-year-olds in the vaccine group, as opposed to 1 in the 1,127 of the placebo group. That was the number of serious adverse events in just 30 days. If this excess absolute risk of 0.003 (0.3%) for SAEs holds up, that means for each 333 children 12-15 years old who are vaccinated, there would be one serious adverse event.

One in 333 doesn't sound like a lot, but it's a lot more than zero, and it's their own biased data. Plus, we have zero trials longer than just one month, so we have no idea about the long-term effects.

So, what are the benefits? There is no data on children, but we know from Israeli data on the Pfizer vaccine for adults published in the New England Journal of Medicine (p.22), that the "needed to treat" number of vaccines to save a life from COVID is 27,778. Their study showed 19 fewer deaths in the vaccine group over the placebo group out of 526,877 people. That is 1/0.00036, which is 27,778.

As Dr. Andy Bostom of Brown University points out, if children 12-15, on average, suffer a serious adverse event every 333 doses, that would add up to about 84 SAEs before you get to one life saved at roughly 27,700 doses.

1/Israeli Pfizer mRNA data from >1M 16+yos revealed # needed to treat to prevent 1 C19 death ~28K. Pfizer US 12-15y… https://t.co/b7aE7vN892

— Andrew Bostom, MD, MS (@andrewbostom) 1620738150.0

But the risk vs. return is likely much worse than an 84:1 spread. Remember, the Israeli data covered vaccination for adults only. Now that adults already have access to the vaccine and anyone who is vulnerable is protected, there is zero benefit to going a step farther from the current baseline and vaccinating children. They are exponentially less likely to get seriously ill from the virus and are also much less likely to spread it. And again, any adult who is vulnerable is already vaccinated, so there is no value add to vaccinating kids. Thus, the number needed to treat to save a life at this point for children in a universe of vaccinated adults is likely much higher.

According to statute (21 U.S.C. §360bbb–3(c)(2)(B)), a medical product can only be offered under emergency use if "the known and potential benefits of the product, when used to diagnose, prevent, or treat such disease or condition, outweigh the known and potential risks of the product." There is simply no way this condition can be fulfilled with kids.

Remember, the vaccine companies are absolved of all liability. The entire justification for such a move is that the need for a vaccine is so compelling that we must override all norms related to research, development, and liability. How can anyone possibly say that the risk to children justifies the use of a truncated study period?

Now riddle me this: Why is it that they are rushing an experimental, never-before-used, mRNA on children who don't get critically ill from this virus, yet the government refuses to approve the use of ivermectin, which has been dispensed 3.7 billion times, even for seniors on ventilators with zero options? It takes a court order just to get hospitals to comply.

The answer is that they have to shut down all alternative treatments in order to approve the vaccine. The same statute ((c)(3)) states that the treatment, in this case the vaccine, can only be approved under emergency use if "there is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to the product for diagnosing, preventing, or treating such disease or condition." Were people to know that there are numerous early, middle, and late-stage treatments, it would nuke the market for the vaccines. As such, they must judge the early therapeutics, including those used regularly for other ailments, with an impossible standard, while rushing through the vaccines at all costs.

Haven't we used children enough to assuage our guilt the past year? Can we just leave them alone?