The 745-mile underwater internet cable linking NATO allies Finland and Germany was apparently severed in the Baltic Sea Monday morning, sparking concerns about possible sabotage.
The cybersecurity and telecoms network company Cinia said in a statement that a "fault" was initially detected in its C-Lion1 submarine cable — the only undersea cable connecting Finland to Central Europe — just after 4 a.m. on Monday, killing the services provided over the line.
According to Cinia, it could take anywhere from five to 15 days for cable repairs and to get a clearer sense of what precisely is responsible.
Telia Lietuva AB, one of the Baltic states' biggest telecommunication companies, told Bloomberg that the incident took place just hours after an undersea cable linking Lithuania to Sweden's Gotland island, nearly 33 feet away from the Finnish line, was cut.
Their allusion to Russian aggression prompted some to speculate that Moscow may have severed the line — possibly in a similar manner to how senior Ukrainian military officers and businessmen allegedly sapped the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in September 2022.
Elina Valtonen, the Finnish minister of foreign affairs, and her German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock, said in a joint statement, "We are deeply concerned about the severed undersea cable connecting Finland and Germany in the Baltic Sea. The fact that such an incident immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage speaks volumes about the volatility of our times."
After noting that an investigation into the incident is underway, the duo stressed that "European security is not only under threat from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors. Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies."
Their allusion to Russian aggression prompted some to speculate that Moscow may have severed the line — possibly in a similar manner to how senior Ukrainian military officers and businessmen allegedly sapped the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in September 2022.
A line-cutting in the area would have been risky business for the Russians given that just days before the malfunction, NATO allies took part in an anti-submarine warfare exercise in the Baltic Sea and likely had some assets in the area.
"The Baltic Sea is a challenging operational environment. The local expertise of our regional Allies facilitates success here and rehearsing command and control ensures the effective use of assets," Royal Danish Navy Commodore Thomas Stig Rasmussen said of the maritime exercises that ran from Nov. 11-14. "Training together in Swedish waters offers Allies an important opportunity to enhance interoperability, which is the key to success in real life operations. Our new Allies in Sweden and Finland have redefined how NATO approaches maritime security in the region."
When pressed on whether the Finnish cable showed signs of sabotage, Cinia CEO Ari-Jussi Knaapila indicated there was "no way to assess the reason right now."
"We can say that such damage doesn't happen without some kind of external impact," Knaapila told Bloomberg, citing ship anchors and bottom trawling as possible causes.
Knaapila ruled out seismic activity and suggested sabotage has not been eliminated as a possibility.
Ship anchors have done serious damage to undersea cables in recent years. On Oct. 8, 2023, two telecom cables and a rupture to a Baltic Sea gas pipeline were caused by the Hong Kong-flagged cargo vessel Newnew Polar Bear. After months of investigation and finger-pointing, Beijing finally admitted the error in August.
Samuli Bergström, communications chief of the Finnish transport and communications agency, told Deutsche Welle, "The reasons are under investigation. Disturbances occur from time to time and there can be various reasons. For example, they are susceptible to weather and damage caused by shipping. The essential thing is that the problems are identified and corrective measures are taken."
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The Biden administration has reportedly cleared Ukraine to use American long-range missile systems against targets in Russia — a move long urged by Ukrainian officials, resisted by U.S. officials concerned about escalation, and identified by Russian President Vladimir Putin as a trigger for a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.
In February, President Joe Biden secretly signed off on the transfer of the Army Tactical Missile Systems to Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Garron Garn told CNN that following Biden's approval, the ATACMS were included in the $300 million aid package announced on March 12 then delivered the following month.
The American-made supersonic missiles have a range of up to 190 miles. Ukraine also has British-made Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of 155 miles.
The U.S. has blocked the use of such weapons in recent months over fears of escalation. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed in September that the Biden administration was considering clearing Ukraine to start lobbing them into Russia, citing the need to adjust and adapt "as needs have changed, as the battlefield has changed."
Putin, whose nation has over 5,000 nuclear warheads and boasts a supersonic missile with a range of 625 miles, responded to Blinken's suggestion by telling a reporter, "It would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia."
Putin, who invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, claims the use of ATACMS would constitute direct action on the part of the U.S. because American satellite reconnaissance would allegedly be necessary for successful missile strikes. He noted in June, "Ukrainian servicemen cannot do everything on their own and strike with this missile. They are simply technologically incapable of doing this."
He equated an ATACMS strike as the work of the Pentagon and a Storm Shadow strike as the work of the British government.
According to Reuters, two American officials and a third source familiar with the decision confirmed that the Biden administration has cleared Ukraine to employ the missiles internationally and that the first of the long-range missile strikes are expected to take place in the coming days.
A U.S. official told CNN that the missiles will likely hit targets in the Kursk region of Russia, where Kyiv launched its summer counteroffensive and where Moscow recently deployed nearly 50,000 troops, including North Korean soldiers.
According to one official, the decision to authorize the use of the ATACMS was driven in part by the recent involvement of the North Korean troops in the fighting.
'This is an impeachable offense.'
By maintaining a foothold in Kursk with the help of long-range missiles, Ukraine might be in a better bargaining position in January should Trump bring Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy and Putin to the negotiating table. The New York Times indicated that Ukrainians hope to be able to trade territory in Kursk for Ukrainian territory presently occupied by Russian forces.
Zelenskyy noted Sunday evening, "I am deeply grateful to all our partners who support us with air defense systems and missiles. This is a truly global effort."
"The plan for strengthening Ukraine is the Victory Plan that I presented to our partners. One of its key elements is providing our army with long-range capabilities," continued Zelenskyy. "There's been much said in the media today that we have received approval to take relative actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. These things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves."
Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media, "If such a decision was really formulated and brought to the attention of the Kyiv regime, then, of course, this is a qualitatively new round of tension and a qualitatively new situation in terms of the involvement of the United States in this conflict."
The Washington Post noted that the decision was not altogether unexpected in Moscow.
"The standoff will become even fiercer, and the talks will become more difficult," said Andrei Kartapolov, a former Russian Army officer and chairman of the parliamentary defense committee. "We expected them to escalate before the end of Biden's office — that was completely obvious."
The Biden administration's decision, which comes with only months remaining in the Democratic president's term, amounts to a significant escalation that has various adversarial nations, especially China — whose alliance with Russia has grown considerably since Putin's invasion of Ukraine — paying close attention.
'Ukraine can't properly defend itself if one hand is tied behind its back.'
There are presently tens of thousands of North Korean troops engaged in combat with Ukrainian forces. North Korea not only has a defense treaty with Russia but a firm mutual defense pact with China.
Despite its defense obligations, China has emphasized that North Korea's presence in Ukraine is its "own business" and has signaled a reluctance to get directly bogged down in the conflict. Nevertheless, China's foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian desperately impressed upon his American counterparts the need for de-escalation.
Responding to reports that the U.S. has cleared the use of the Army Tactical Missile System by Ukraine against Russia-based targets, Lin Jian, the spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, stated, "China's position on the Ukraine issue is consistent and clear, and an early ceasefire and pursuit of a political solution are in the interests of all parties. Promoting a de-escalation of the situation as soon as possible is the top priority."
The Chinese regime also insisted that Russia, which executed a large-range missile and drone attack against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure over the weekend, should similarly pursue de-escalation.
Some American lawmakers have expressed support for Ukraine's use of the missiles, including Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss, who stated, "Biden's decision to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of ATACMS in Russia is long-awaited progress. But it's critical that authorized targets include Russian oil refineries, which pump out the lifeblood of the Kremlin's war machine."
Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker (R) similarly expressed optimism over the development, stating Sunday, "If initial press reports are true, I am encouraged at the prospect of allowing Ukraine to use long-range ATACM missiles supplied by the U.S."
Republican Rep. Mike Turner (Ohio) wrote, "Ukraine can't properly defend itself if one hand is tied behind its back. Today's news that the Biden Administration is finally allowing Ukraine to use some U.S.-provided ATACMS to strike limited targets within Russian territory is long overdue."
Turner stressed the need to "put pressure on Vladimir Putin" ahead of Trump taking office.
Other American lawmakers are less than enthused over the prospect of a shooting war with Russia.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) tweeted, "By authorizing long range missiles to strike inside Russia, Biden is committing an unconstitutional Act of War that endangers the lives of all U.S. citizens. This is an impeachable offense, but the reality is he’s an emasculated puppet of a deep state."
Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale (R) wrote, "American long range missiles being used to attack Russia? As many as 12,000 North Korean troops staged in Russia. When will Congress reclaim its authority and stop this proxy war we are entangled in?!"
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The Biden-Harris administration is considering the possibility of committing the U.S. and other NATO countries to a direct shooting war with Russia — assuming Russian President Vladimir Putin is not bluffing about what for him constitutes a red line.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Wednesday in Kyiv, discussing the country's supposed progress toward NATO and EU membership as well possible escalations in its defensive war against Russia.
Extra to announcing more than $700 million more in assistance for Ukraine and speaking of "Ukraine's success, Ukraine's victory," Blinken signaled possible support for the embattled nation employing Western long-range weapons to strike targets deep within Russia.
The U.S. has up until now blocked the use of such weapons over fears of escalation.
The Times (U.K.) indicated, however, that American and British governments have been under mounting pressure to relax such restrictions, including by former elements of the military-industrial complex, NATO, and European political establishment.
Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha indicated at a joint press conference Wednesday that he had emphasized to Blinken and to Lammy that it was necessary to "remove all the obstacles and limitations with the use of British equipment, American equipment in the territory of Russia against military targets."
Blinken said that he was going to raise the matter with President Joe Biden who is meeting Friday with Britain's leftist prime minister, Keir Starmer, in Washington, D.C.
A reporter subsequently asked the trio about the use of American supersonic tactical ballistic missiles, which have a range of up to 190 miles, and the British-made Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of roughly 155 miles. Ukraine already has the latter but is only allowed to use them within its own territory.
'It would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia.'
The reporter asked further whether the Blinken and his counterparts were still worried "about managing escalation with Russia."
"We discussed long-range fires, but a number of other things as well. And as I said at the outset, I'm going to take that discussion back to Washington to brief the president on what I heard," said Blinken.
Blinken intimated, however, the U.S. is open to lifting its restrictions, stating, "Just speaking for the United States, from day one, as you heard me say, we have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed, as the battlefield has changed, and I have no doubt that we'll continue to do that as this evolves."
Regarding fears of escalation, Blinken said, "Of course that's one of the factors that we always consider, but it's certainly not the only factor and it's not necessarily a dispositive factor."
According to the Agence France Presse, Putin said Thursday that an easing of the restrictions on long-range weapons would "in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict."
"It would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia," added Putin, whose nation has over 5,000 nuclear warheads and boasts a supersonic missile with a range of 625 miles. "If that's the case, then taking into account the change of nature of the conflict, we will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face."
Putin characterized the decision to ease restrictions as a matter of choosing "whether NATO countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not."
Citing British government sources, the Times (U.K.) noted that the Biden-Harris administration might shift its position prior to the gathering of global leaders at the UN headquarters in New York later this month.
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