Iowa primary: One Trump-backed candidate secures landslide victory, while another is narrowly defeated

Iowa voters cast their ballots in the primary election on Tuesday, determining two of the state’s highest-profile November matchups, including the open gubernatorial race and an open U.S. Senate seat.

Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) announced in April 2025 that she would not seek a third term. In Sept., U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst (R) announced that she would also not seek re-election.

'We now have the most Republicans ever. ... There is no excuse for [Democratic] turnout to exceed ours here, but if that happens again ... uh-oh.'

Five Republicans faced off in Iowa’s primary election, seeking to succeed Reynolds.

A survey conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling from May 27 to 28 predicted that the Republican gubernatorial primary may head to a convention, with none of the candidates able to secure the required 35% of the vote.

Of those surveyed, 24% stated that they would vote for businessman and former conservative political director Zach Lahn, 22% selected state Rep. Randy Feenstra, 15% selected former director of the state Department of Administrative Services Adam Steen, 8% selected former state Rep. Brad Sherman, and 4% selected state Rep. Eddie Andrews. However, 27% of those surveyed said they remained undecided.

Feenstra was endorsed by President Donald Trump, who called the candidate “MAGA all the way!”

Live ballot tabulations showed Lahn and Feenstra in a tight race on Tuesday evening.

With roughly 90% of the votes counted and Lahn leading by approximately 1,400 votes, BlazeTV’s Steve Deace stated, “I’ve seen enough. @ZachLahn will be the GOP nominee for governor in Iowa.”

Decision Desk HQ projected at 11:30 p.m. Eastern that Lahn would win the election against challenger Feenstra. With 98% of the votes counted, Lahn led Feenstra by less than one percentage point, according to the Associated Press. Lahn secured over 37% of the vote, avoiding a state party convention previously predicted by the polls.

Feenstra reportedly called Lahn Tuesday evening to concede.

Lahn will face uncontested Democratic nominee Rob Sand in the upcoming November 3 general election.

Ashley Hinson; KC McGinnis/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Former state Rep. Jim Carlin and Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson went head-to-head on Tuesday seeking to become the Republican nominee to fill Ernst’s open seat in the Senate.

The same poll from JMC Analytics and Polling showed 58% of those surveyed were planning to vote for Hinson and that Carlin trailed behind by 39 percentage points. However, 23% of respondents stated they were still undecided.

On Tuesday, Hinson pulled off a massive victory against Carlin in the election. Roughly 30 minutes after the polls closed, Hinson was projected to be the winner by NBC News and the Associated Press. With 99% of the ballots counted, Hinson won by over 48 percentage points.

State Rep. Josh Turek won the Democratic primary race against state Sen. Zach Wahls to battle it out against Hinson on the November ballot.

Zach Wahls; Charlie Neibergall/Getty Images

Heading into Election Day, Deace shared his thoughts on the Iowa races and their national implications.

“We better hope the Democrats follow their heart with Zach Wahls and not their heads with Josh Turek, because the latter has run the best and most inspiring messaging I’ve seen from a Democrat statewide in Iowa in many years,” Deace wrote in a post on X. “Wahls is a construct of every Leftist fetish normies vote against if the economy isn’t totally in the tank. But if Turek is their nominee, the US Senate race in Iowa will be a way tougher pull for our side this fall. He gives normies a reason to vote for him and not just against Trump.”

He noted that Democratic voter turnout nationwide has far surpassed Republicans, which he called an obvious “potential danger sign for November.”

“But here in Iowa, we now have the most Republicans ever and more than a 200,000 voter registration advantage. There is no excuse for their turnout to exceed ours here, but if that happens again ... uh-oh,” Deace added.

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Trump’s endorsement power keeps saving the wrong Republicans

For a decade, not one lukewarm Republican incumbent senator or governor has lost a primary and been replaced by a more conservative challenger under Donald Trump’s leadership of the GOP. That changed Tuesday night.

Four-term U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) did not merely lose to state Attorney General Ken Paxton. He got routed by 28 points.

The Paxton endorsement and Cornyn’s defeat should have marked a turning point in Trump’s political strategy. Instead, they look like the high point of the cycle.

The decisive factor was obvious: Trump finally endorsed the challenger instead of the RINO incumbent. Now, imagine what the party might look like if he had done that over the past five election cycles.

The point is not to dwell on missed opportunities. Upcoming primaries in red states will determine whether conservatives retain any real statewide fighters.

Paxton’s victory proves Trump could finish his term by draining the swamp. Sadly, he more often sides with the swamp or stays silent long enough for moneyed interests to crush more principled candidates.

Most insurgent challengers lack Paxton’s name recognition. But if Trump’s endorsement could move Paxton from a close race to a 240-county rout, it could make lesser-known challengers competitive against weak incumbents. In open seats, a grassroots conservative with Trump’s backing would be nearly unbeatable.

Several upcoming races offer conservatives a chance to make red states actually govern like red states. Too often, Trump is absent or on the wrong side.

Start with Iowa.

Gov. Kim Reynolds is retiring, and Democrats have fielded a credible challenger pretending to be a moderate while running against land grabs. Republicans need a non-corporatist nominee who does not carry the baggage of the status quo Republicans in Congress.

Betting markets have RINO Rep. Randy Feenstra as the heavy favorite for the GOP nomination because he has the most money and name identification. Conservatives have fielded multiple candidates, but with only days until the election, Zach Lahn has the most traction and the clearest message against data centers and land grabs.

Thankfully, Trump has not endorsed Feenstra. But if he endorsed Lahn, Lahn could win outright without a runoff.

The Iowa Senate race shows the opposite problem. Former state Sen. Jim Carlin challenged Sen. Joni Ernst after she obstructed Pete Hegseth’s nomination. Trump should have endorsed Carlin. Instead, he encouraged Ernst to run again. Then, when Ernst retired thanks to Carlin’s hard work, Trump endorsed RINO Rep. Ashley Hinson, ensuring no improvement over Ernst.

Luke Sharrett/Getty Images

Trump made a similar move in Louisiana. Sen. Bill Cassidy was already politically wounded, with conservative challengers in the race. Trump could have helped finish him. Instead, he helped clear the field for Rep. Julia Letlow, a carbon capture supporter backed by major AI money who declined to run when the race looked difficult.

South Dakota presents the next major red-state test.

Sen. Mike Rounds represents everything MAGA claims to hate on social, fiscal, and national security policy. Yet Trump endorsed him last year, clearing the field and guaranteeing no serious opposition. This has become a familiar pattern. A Trump endorsement effectively cancels the primary.

The biggest prize in South Dakota is the governor’s race. After MAGA Inc. promoted Kristi Noem as a conservative champion, many of us warned she was a capricious establishment Republican. Her lieutenant governor, Larry Rhoden, took over the term and now seeks a full one. Rep. Dusty Johnson, former leader of the RINO Main Street Partnership, is also running. So is wealthy businessman Toby Doeden, who claims the MAGA label while pushing data centers.

Speaker Jon Hansen is the only conservative in the race. He led the fight against carbon capture land grabs, helped build a conservative majority in the state House, and fought the abortion amendment, marijuana amendment, and COVID tyranny in South Dakota. Now, he is fighting data centers.

A Trump endorsement would likely win the race for Hansen. Instead, conservatives have to worry that Trump might intervene on the wrong side if the race heads to a runoff.

Anyone who thought Trump’s late endorsement against Cornyn signaled a strategic turning point should look at South Carolina. Trump recently reaffirmed his endorsement of Sen. Lindsey Graham ahead of the June 9 primary against Matt Lynch and several other candidates.

Trump’s endorsements of Graham in 2020 and again now have driven off stronger challengers. That is clearly why, barring a miracle, one of the most obnoxious Republicans in the Senate will probably remain there until he dies.

Even when conservatives cannot defeat incumbent RINOs, they should at least ensure that open seats produce better Republicans. Montana shows how hard the establishment works to prevent that.

Trump and the RINO establishment that runs the Montana GOP helped execute a sleazy scheme around Sen. Steve Daines’ retirement. Daines announced his retirement on the filing deadline while the establishment had U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme lined up to walk into the seat without a primary. The goal was obvious: avoid a competitive race from a member of the Montana Freedom Caucus.

Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Gianforte, another RINO Trump ally, is at war with the state Freedom Caucus and is spending heavily to defeat conservative incumbents in the legislature next Tuesday.

Matt Rourke/Pool/Getty Images

This pattern keeps repeating. Trump elevates, preserves, and empowers statewide GOP leaders who hate conservatives. Those leaders then turn their guns on freedom caucus members in their own legislatures.

Idaho proved the point last week. Trump’s endorsement of Gov. Brad Little for a third term helped keep him in power. Little then spent hundreds of thousands of dollars helping defeat five conservatives in the legislature.

North Dakota shows the same dynamic. Trump cleared the field for governor two years ago and helped install Rep. Kelly Armstrong, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress. Armstrong is not up for re-election this year, so he is using his money and clout to target the few conservatives in a legislature with almost no official Democrats but plenty of undocumented ones.

Trump has generally stayed out of state legislative races. But his long shadow of RINO endorsements now creates a greater headwind against conservative candidates than ever before.

And don’t even get me started on Trump’s endorsement of Byron Donalds in Florida to replace the greatest governor of this generation.

The Paxton endorsement and Cornyn’s defeat should have marked a turning point in Trump’s political strategy. Instead, they look like the high point of the cycle.

From here, conservatives have every reason to worry that Trump will return to his old habit: rewarding the swamp, clearing the field for weak Republicans, and leaving the movement’s best fighters to fend for themselves.

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Early red flag for GOP? Democrats rack up massive Q1 fundraising hauls

The first-quarter campaign fundraising total for the 2026 midterms reveals that House and Senate Democratic candidates have picked up significant early momentum, potentially spelling trouble for Republicans as more primary elections approach.

At least one Democratic candidate raised more than a Republican in Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, New Hampshire, and Alaska, Punchbowl News reported.

'There's no way for Republicans to spin this: Their candidates are getting crushed.'

Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) raised $27.1 million, breaking a record for the largest amount for a Senate candidate in any state. Talarico's fundraising significantly outpaced his potential opponents. Sen. John Cornyn (R) raised $9 million, and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) raised $2.2 million.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) raised $14 million during the first quarter. The incumbent's fundraising far outpaced that of Republicans hoping to unseat him. Rep. Mike Collins (R) raised just over $1 million, and Rep. Buddy Carter (R) raised just $470,000.

In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is hoping to defeat Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted. Brown raised $10.1 million in the first quarter, while Husted brought in $2.9 million.

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is running against Michael Whatley (R) and three other candidates to secure retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat. Cooper raised $13.8 million in the first quarter, while Whatley raised $5 million.

James Talarico. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

House Democratic challengers also raised significant funds in the first few months of the year.

In Arizona, JoAnna Mendoza (D) raised over $2.3 million, among the highest reported by a Democratic House candidate. Mendoza's opponent, incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R), raised $1.1 million.

In Wisconsin, Democratic candidate Rebecca Cooke is looking to oust incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R). Cooke raised $2.4 million, while Van Orden raised $1.3 million.

"Of course, this is only part of the picture. Candidates are now using joint fundraising committees to air TV ads. Super PACs will play a big role," Punchbowl News reported. "GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson did raise the most in Iowa's open Senate race. And Democratic primaries will drain some resources."

"But there's no way for Republicans to spin this: Their candidates are getting crushed," the outlet stated.

Visions of America/Universal Images Group/Getty Images

While Punchbowl News insisted it was all doom and gloom for Republican candidates, the National Republican Congressional Committee saw the Q1 funding results as a win for the GOP.

"Republicans are LAPPING Democrats in fundraising & building a war chest they can't match," the NRCC wrote in a post on X, adding that the GOP "outraised, outworked, [and] outmatched" their Democratic counterparts.

Mike Marinella, the national press secretary for the NRCC, stated, "Once again, and for every single quarter this campaign cycle, @NRCC Patriots have outraised [the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee] Frontliners."

"House Republicans have the momentum on our side, and the money proves it," he wrote.

Federal Election Commission reporting showed that Democratic Senate candidates have raised $368 million for their 2026 races, compared to $324 million raised by Republicans. Democratic House candidates collected $691 million, while Republicans raised $578 million.

Some of the most prominent names in Republican political consulting did not respond to a request for comment on this story.

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Michelle Obama's former chief of staff aborts Senate campaign amid scandal over hiring of criminal noncitizen

Jackie Norris, the chairwoman of the Des Moines Public School Board who once served as chief of staff to Michelle Obama, has pulled out of the race for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat as recommended by her Republican opponent, Rep. Ashley Hinson.

Hinson stressed earlier this month that Norris, a champion of DEI, had "lost all shreds of credibility" over the role she played in the hiring of the Des Moines district's former superintendent, a criminal illegal alien who was arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement on Sept 26.

'The state is so red that having her albatross on the ticket all but assured a Democrat loss.'

Ian Andre Roberts, a native of Guyana, has a lengthy criminal record. In addition to being convicted in 2012 of reckless driving and in 2022 of unlawful possession of a loaded firearm, Roberts — who served as superintendent and worked with children until late last month — was previously charged with criminal possession of narcotics with intent to sell; criminal possession of narcotics; and criminal possession of a forgery instrument.

According to ICE, when agents went to arrest Roberts last month, he "identified himself then sped off, abandoned his vehicle, and hid in a brushy area about 200 meters away, where ICE officers located him with help from Iowa State Patrol officers."

After apprehending Roberts, arresting officers allegedly found a loaded handgun, a hunting knife, and $3,000 cash in his vehicle. Roberts was subsequently charged with being an illegal alien in possession of firearms.

"Ian Andre Roberts, a criminal illegal alien with multiple weapons charges and a drug trafficking charge, should have never been able to work around children," stated Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin.

Ian Andre Roberts. Photo: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

"As chair of the Des Moines School Board, Iowa Democrat Senate candidate Jackie Norris hired an illegal alien with a rap sheet to be her superintendent and work with children," Samantha Cantrell, the regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, noted in the wake of Roberts' arrest. "Jackie Norris has put every single Des Moines student and family in danger. Democrats will stop at nothing to protect criminal illegal aliens."

In addition to being a convicted criminal noncitizen, Roberts reportedly lied about his academic bona fides, falsely suggesting, for instance, that he had attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Norris seemingly made things worse for herself by suggesting in the immediate wake of Roberts' arrest that the community should "engage in radical empathy as we work through the situation together."

Rep. Hinson suggested that instead of "radical empathy," it was time for "radical accountability."

Norris later suggested the school board had similarly been victimized by Roberts' deceit, then attempted to displace blame over the decision to hire him, filing a lawsuit against the headhunting firm JG Consulting for alleged negligence in the process of offering Roberts as a candidate, reported the Iowa Capital Dispatch.

In addition to facing significant backlash from parents, the district is now under investigation by the Trump Justice Department over its alleged discriminatory hiring practices.

Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon noted in a Sept. 30 letter to Matthew Smith, the interim superintendent of Des Moines Public Schools, that "DMPS may be engaged in employment practices that discriminate against employees, job applicants, and training program participants based on race, color, and national origin in violation of Title VII."

Just days after telling Axios she was going to stay in the race, Norris announced she was instead calling it quits.

"The recent Des Moines Public Schools Superintendent crisis demanded my full attention as Board Chair and, overnight, put the School Board, our community, and me personally in the crosshairs of vicious and coordinated attacks," said Norris. "Those realities took time and oxygen away from the work I set out to do: stand up for our kids and families — and the backbone of our communities, their educators and caregivers."

Norris, who was the state director for Barack Obama's 2008 general election campaign, noted further, "I leave this race with my head high."

Blaze News has reached out to Norris for comment.

"Do not think Jackie is the first Democrat in recent memory to have any sense shame or self-awareness in ending her bid," BlazeTV host and Iowa native Steve Deace told Blaze News. "This is still the party that won't denounce their attorney general nominee in Virginia who has a murder fetish."

"Rather," continued Deace, "Jackie is ending her bid because Iowa isn't Virginia. The state is so red that having her albatross on the ticket all but assured a Democrat loss, and obtaining power is all Democrats care about. Now it's time to pursue her criminally and make an example out of her."

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