Following a steady streak of political failures, the Democratic Party is facing yet another disastrous reality.
Democrats have been bleeding support as they continue to propel progressive candidates to national prominence. Most recently, an analysis from the New York Times shows just how dire the situation is.
'There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill.'
Between the 2020 and 2024 elections, Democratic voter registration plummeted across all 30 states that track voter registration by political affiliation, according to the analysis. Within just those four years, the shift toward Republicans adds up to about 4.5 million voters.
Across the board, Americans are fleeing the Democratic Party.
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For the first time since 2018, more new voters across the country opted to register as Republicans rather than Democrats, according to the analysis. In total, Democrats hemorrhaged about 2.1 million registered voters from 2020 to 2024 across the 30 states that track registration by party. At the same time, Republicans gained 2.4 million new registered voters.
This trend has been apparent not just in swing states, but also in deeply partisan ones.
In all four battleground states in the analysis, including Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, the share of Democratic voters sharply declined. On Election Day, Democrats went from nearly an 11-point advantage over Republicans in 2020 to just a six-point edge in 2024 with respect to party registration, according to the analysis.
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"I don't want to say, 'The death cycle of the Democratic Party,' but there seems to be no end to this,” Michael Pruser, an analyst for Decision Desk HQ, told the New York Times. "There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year."
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President-elect Donald Trump officially flipped Lake County, California, one month after the November 5 election. Trump's electoral win in Lake County is the latest indication of the landslide victory he enjoyed in the 2024 cycle.
Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote in two decades, even sweeping all seven swing states. The last candidate to win all battlegrounds was former President Ronald Reagan in 1984.
'It could actually be the beginnings of a Reagan-style political realignment if the Democrats don't make adjustments and do so in a hurry.'
Trump also flipped over 50 counties this cycle while Vice President Kamala Harris failed to flip any in her favor. Of those counties that flipped in Trump's favor, roughly half of them had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate this century. Trump also managed to shift every single state toward Republicans. Roughly 300 counties shifted more Democratic, without any actually flipping blue, while over 2,600 shifted more Republican.
"The data suggests that this was more than simply a decisive victory for Donald Trump," Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told Blaze News. "It could actually be the beginnings of a Reagan-style political realignment if the Democrats don't make adjustments and do so in a hurry."
One of Trump's most notable flips was South Texas' Starr County, a predominantly Hispanic border county. This ended one of the longest Democratic voting streaks in history, with the county voting for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1896. Trump also made inroads with Latinos in Florida, enjoying a double-digit swing in Miami-Dade County compared to his results in 2020.
Democratic support slipped across every demographic the party has historically held onto. Even with a black female candidate and a white working-class running mate, voters turned to Trump.
"We are losing, in front of our very eyes, some of the core elements of the Democratic coalition that we have held onto, to varying degrees, since the age of Roosevelt," Foxwell told Blaze News. "We have become a party of inner suburban wine clubs and book clubs. A relatively small, culturally homogeneous group of inner suburban, highly educated, relatively affluent liberals and progressives."
"That, to be sure, is a part of a strong Democratic coalition, but it cannot be the only part," Foxwell continued. "It cannot and it must not be the centerpiece around which we base our national political strategy, and I'm afraid that's what we're at risk of becoming."
Foxwell points out that the downfall of the Democratic Party is largely because it demands a highly stringent form of political and social orthodoxy from its voters that has become incompatible with many moderates. Although Democrats have championed diversity of identity, the party has remained intellectually homogeneous, which is exclusionary by nature.
"Democrats used to be the party of disruption, debate, and change, and now we have become a more intellectually homogeneous party in which we are not necessarily supposed to look alike, but we are certainly expected to think alike," Foxwell said. "When that happens, you become intellectually stagnant, and I honestly believe that this is one of the major reasons why the Democratic Party is losing its natural advantages."
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President-elect Donald Trump secured sweeping victories in every battleground state, including Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The election results for Arizona and Nevada were the last ones to be confirmed, with some media outlets, like the New York Times and the Associated Press, still holding off their announcements as of Thursday afternoon.
'This is an extremely clear mandate from the people for significant change!'
However, according to Decision Desk HQ, Trump defeated Harris in Arizona by 5.5 points with 75% of the ballots tallied.
Decision Desk HQ reported that Trump also took Nevada by more than 3.5 points with 95% of the votes counted.
Trump's win in Arizona and Nevada added 17 more electoral votes to his total, pushing him well over the 270 threshold required to secure the presidency. Trump's final count is expected to be 312 electoral votes against Vice President Kamala Harris' 226.
Trump also ran away with the popular vote, securing at least 4.5 million more supporters than his rival.
In the 2016 presidential election, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 3.5 points in Arizona. Despite Maricopa County's gradual shift toward the Democrats, Trump still managed to lead there by 2.9 points. In the previous presidential election, President Joe Biden defeated Trump in Arizona by less than half a point by picking up Maricopa County.
On Monday, Trump won the swing county by three points, with 77% of the ballots tallied. The Democratic stronghold counties, including Coconino, Apache, Pima, and Santa Cruz, went to Harris. Trump won the other 10 Arizona counties.
Both Biden and Clinton clinched Nevada by 2.4 points in the last two presidential races, thanks to their wins in Washoe and Clark Counties. However, on Monday, Trump flipped Washoe County, securing his victory in the state.
On Wednesday, Elon Musk wrote on X, "Arizona just declared for @realDonaldTrump, making it a clean sweep of all swing states! Massive red wave success!"
He noted that Republicans won the presidency, popular vote, Senate majority, House majority, state governor majority, and the state legislature majority.
"The few states that didn't go red are mostly ones without voter ID requirements. Must be a coincidence," Musk continued. "This is an extremely clear mandate from the people for significant change!"
It is still unclear whether the Republicans will hold the House and whether Senate candidate Kari Lake (R) will defeat her opponent, Ruben Gallego (D), in the Arizona race to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I).
Arizona counties ran into several speed bumps throughout the voting process.
The Navajo Nation in Apache County requested that polling centers stay open an additional two hours due to issues with the ballot-on-demand printers. A judge granted its request.
There were also a number of hoax bomb threats made to several polling locations.
Center for American Liberty founder and CEO Harmeet Dhillon told Glenn Beck on Tuesday evening that she expected Maricopa County to take up to two weeks to count all its ballots.
"That's because they're allowed to do that under the law," she explained.
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Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin defeated Republican challenger Mike Rogers Wednesday in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.
Slotkin secured her electoral victory by 48.6%, while Rogers pulled in 48.3%, according to Politico. Although Democrats have held onto the contested Michigan Senate seat, Republicans have managed to flip seats in Montana, West Virginia, and Ohio, securing the GOP's majority.
Democrats have dominated the Michigan Senate seats for decades, but Rogers was able to narrow Slotkin's nearly six-point polling advantage from August to just a 0.3 point margin on Election Day.
The Michigan Senate seat was one of four races rated "toss-ups" by Cook Political Report going into Election Day, alongside Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.
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Key voting blocs that have voted reliably blue are underperforming compared to previous election cycles, which could send warning signs to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. At the same time, increased turnout from some reliably red demographics could give former President Donald Trump the edge he needs.
One of the most glaring disadvantages for Democrats going into the election is the comparatively low turnout from urban voters. At this point in the race, there is a 12.8-point deficit in urban voter turnout across battlegrounds compared to 2020. Rural voter turnout is comparatively higher, with just a 3.9-point difference.
This could be particularly harmful for Democrats this election cycle, given that the majority of urban voters are Democratic and a majority of rural voters are Republican.
Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.
"Regardless of how we slice and dice the demographics, rural voters are going to be very supportive of the former president," Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told Blaze News. "Urban voters won't vote in lockstep, but they will be disproportionately in support of Kamala Harris, so that demographic turnout is going to matter."
There is also a partisan divide between male and female voters, as men tend to lean more Republican while women lean more Democratic. Although women vote in greater numbers than men do, they are underperforming this election cycle, which could throw a wrench into Harris' chances.
"It's not just a 'get out the vote rally.' It's a 'you've got to vote because of X, Y, and Z," McHenry told Blaze News. "There's definitely a bit more urgency than what we would normally see from Democrats at this stage of the race."
Women voters dipped down by 7.9 points across swing states compared to 2020, while men dipped down by seven points. Even though more women have voted than men, their deficit combined with slipping male support could put Harris' campaign in jeopardy.
Declines in black and Hispanic votes could also put Harris in trouble. Compared to 2020, there is a 10.1-point turnout deficit among black voters in battlegrounds and an 11.7-point decline among Latino voters. Given that both Hispanic and black voters have overwhelmingly voted for Democrats in the past, this decline could threaten Harris' campaign.
Harris has certainly taken notice of this trend. Over the past month, her campaign has released a tailored "opportunity agenda" for both black and Hispanic men.
"The idea that there's this sort of opportunity agenda targeted at specific demographics, and the fact that Kamala Harris has drafted Barack Obama to turn out black males and essentially extending her reach to get people to turn out, shows that they're definitely concerned about getting the traditional Democratic base out to the polls," McHenry told Blaze News.
Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.
"Like most poker players would say, just give me one of the hands, and I'll beat you with that," McHenry told Blaze News. "Honestly, it really is so close that it's hard to say."
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Democrats are panicking over the early voting results for the Kamala Harris campaign, according to the former campaign manager for Barack Obama.
Jim Messina — a Democratic political operative who ran then-President Obama's 2012 re-election campaign — noted that early voting results are "scary" for the Harris campaign during a Sunday appearance on MSNBC's "Inside with Jen Psaki."
'This is unprecedented in Georgia history.'
When asked what the major concerns were for the Harris campaign days before the election, Messina responded, "The early vote numbers are a little scary."
"Republicans didn't do what they did last time," Messina added. "Last time, Trump said don't early-vote, so they didn't. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers. When the early votes come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that's scary."
Messina confessed that the early vote totals have caused lots of his "friends to call me panicking" when comparing the data to 2020.
However, Messina noted that Democrats are excited about the early turnout of two key voting blocs: women and young voters.
"Women voters make up 55% of the early voters, and in the past 10 days, young voters in these battleground states are coming out in what looks to be, for early votes, historic numbers," Messina stated.
At the time of publication, more than 78 million Americans have voted early, according to statistics from the University of Florida's Election Lab. Over 42 million in-person early votes have been cast, and more than 35 million mail-in ballots have been returned across the country.
Based on states with party registration, nearly 38% have been by Democrats, 36% were Republicans, and 26% did not have any political party affiliation or supported minority parties.
In early voting results, 54% were women and 43% were men.
During the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump won the male vote against President Joe Biden: 53% to 45%, according to CNN. Biden easily surpassed Trump in the women's vote: 57% to 42%.
Stats from 2020 show that 8% were ages 18-25, 16% were 26-40, 39% were 41-65, and nearly 36% were over the age of 65 years old.
In battleground states, early voting is up 80% in Georgia compared to the 2020 election, 80% in North Carolina, 76% in Nevada, nearly 65% in Arizona, 53% in Michigan, 45% in Wisconsin, and 25% in Pennsylvania.
The Georgia Secretary of State's website said, "As of Saturday morning, 92 Georgia counties have exceeded 50% turnout. This is unprecedented in Georgia history."
In Arizona, Republicans have nearly a 188,000 vote-return lead over Democrats, according to early voting totals compiled by UpLift Campaigns.
In North Carolina, Republicans have less than a 1% lead over Democrats.
In Nevada, Republicans have a 4% advantage over Democrats in early voting.
In Pennsylvania, Democrats have roughly a 400,000 vote lead over Republicans. During the 2020 election, Pennsylvania Democrats had more than 1 million more mail-in ballots than Republicans.
Early voting has traditionally been favored by Democrats.
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An EAC report shows huge spikes in early in-person voting in swing states; ballot chasers want to keep that momentum growing into the midterms and beyond.
Former President Donald Trump is projected to win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, flipping a state President Joe Biden won during the 2020 contest. The call was made Saturday night by the Associated Press and other legacy media outlets. With 87 percent of votes tabulated, preliminary results show Trump with 52.6 percent of the vote, compared […]
President-elect Donald Trump is projected to win Nevada’s six electoral votes, becoming the first GOP presidential candidate to win the state since 2004. According to The New York Times, preliminary results show the soon-to-be 47th president leading Kamala Harris in the Silver State by 3.3 points, with more than 95 percent of votes tabulated. The […]
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