Inside The Brand New Ballot-Chasing Operation That Helped Republicans Flip The Senate
Sentinel proved to be a difference maker in electing Trump and helping Republicans decisively take back the Senate.
Post-McConnell Republicans now control the U.S. Senate, thanks in part to a Democratic super PAC closely affiliated with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
Although Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has been in office for nearly two decades, he appeared particularly vulnerable this election cycle. The Duty and Country PAC, funded by the Schumer-linked Senate Majority PAC, meddled in the 2024 Ohio Republican primary in hopes of boosting the weaker of Brown's potential challengers in hopes of keeping the Senate seat.
It had no idea it would be helping the man who would ultimately unseat Brown: the Trump- and Vance-backed Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno.
'Exactly the type of MAGA fighter that we need in the United States Senate.'
The New York Times reported in March that Duty and Country, which had been running ads on behalf of Brown in Ohio, blew roughly $2.7 million to run an ad across the state characterizing Moreno — then facing off with Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan — as an ultraconservative aligned with President Donald Trump.
While the ad was on its face negative, it highlighted views and credentials that might resonate with likely Republican voters.
"MAGA Republican Bernie Moreno is too conservative for Ohio," said the ad. "In Washington, Moreno would do Donald Trump's bidding. That's why Trump endorsed Moreno, calling him 'exactly the type of MAGA fighter that we need in the United States Senate.'"
Dolan told NBC News at the time, "National Democrats are putting millions of dollars behind Bernie Moreno in the waning days of this primary because he is damaged, unelectable and incapable of defeating Sherrod Brown."
"Democrats constantly underestimate the America First movement at their own peril," said Reagan McCarthy, Moreno's communications director. "They thought President Trump would be easy to beat in 2016 and then they got their clocks cleaned when he demolished Hillary Clinton. The same thing is going to happen to Sherrod Brown this year."
Of the two, McCarthy was right.
'You're fired, buddy.'
With 92% of the vote in, Decision Desk HQ indicated that Moreno beat Brown 50.2% to 46.4%, netting over 220,000 more votes.
"What we need in the United States of America is leaders in Washington, D.C., that actually put the interests of American citizens above all else. We're tired of being treated like second-class citizens in our own country. We're tired of leaders that think we're garbage and we're tired of being treated like garbage," the soon-to-be senator said in his victory speech.
Moreno then singled out Schumer, saying, "Chuck Schumer, if you're watching, thanks for the help in the primary, but you're fired, buddy."
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Republican candidate Bernie Moreno defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio Tuesday night, flipping another crucial Senate seat.
Moreno won 50.5% of the vote while Moreno secured 46.1% of the vote, according to Politico. At the time of this writing, Republicans have now flipped two Senate seats, regaining their majority from the Democrats.
Brown, who was first elected as one of Ohio's two senators since 2006, was projected to be the winner early on in the race. As November approached, Moreno closed in on Brown's lead and actually surpassed him in the polls by a few points.
Moreno was supported by former President Donald Trump's endorsement as well as the Republican nominee's strong performance in Ohio.
Moreno originally ran for Ohio Senate in 2022 but later dropped out, allowing then-Republican candidate turned Trump running mate JD Vance to secure the electoral victory.
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Republican Senate candidates may have a leg up going into November thanks to former President Donald Trump's down-ballot momentum.
The most likely pickup opportunity for the GOP lies in Montana, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is lagging an average of seven points behind his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, according to RealClearPolling. Other Senate polls across the Blue Wall states are closer, but the Republican Party's policy priorities are tightening races that have historically been layups for the Democratic Party.
“These voters just feel a greater degree of cultural synergy with the Trump-Vance ticket, and it’s having a downwind effect," Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told Blaze News.
"These Senate candidates are in a region of the country where economic concerns such as inflation and cost of living remain paramount," Foxwell told Blaze News. "Voters simply invested a greater degree of trust in Donald Trump's perspective towards the economy, and I think we're seeing that reflected in the Senate races."
Democratic Senate candidates in the Rust Belt, such as incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, are all polling just a few points ahead of their respective Republican challengers.
Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde of Wisconsin closed in on Baldwin's nearly seven-point advantage from August to just three points in October, despite the fact that she won her seat by 5.6 points in 2012 and 10.8 points in 2018.
In the Michigan race to replace Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Republican candidate Mike Rogers slimmed Slotkin's advantage from five points in August to less than three points in October. At the same time, Stabenow won her seat by 20.8 points in 2012 and 6.5 points in 2018.
Similarly, Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania shrank Casey's eight-point lead in August to just three points in October. In contrast, Casey won his seat by 17.3 points in 2006, 9.1 points in 2012, and 13.1 points in 2018.
The Ohio Senate race reflects the same trend, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown currently scraping by with just a 2.6-point average lead over GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Previously, the three-term senator won his seat by 12.3 points in 2006, by 5.2 points in 2012, and by 6.8 points in 2018.
These polling trends across the Rust Belt and the Midwest are a reflection of a shift toward Trump but, more importantly, away from Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic policies.
“The fact of the matter is that presidential administrations get the credit when things are going well, and they shoulder the blame when things aren’t," Foxwell continued. "So when voters, not only in the Rust Belt but anywhere in the country, go to the grocery store and see the price of milk and eggs, not to mention gasoline, continue to go up, they’re going to hold the current White House occupant accountable.”
The economy ranks as the top priority, with 28% of Midwestern likely voters saying it is the most important issue in deciding their vote in November, according to the New York Times/Siena poll from Oct. 8. At the same time, 47% of Midwestern likely voters trust Trump to handle the issue they think is most important, while 45% said the same for Harris.
“This election is to be based upon economics," Foxwell told Blaze News. "Victory is going to go to the candidates, be it at the presidential level or in the Senate races, who are able to make the case they represent the straightest, most correct line to economic recovery and prosperity."
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