Let’s cut through the wishful thinking.

Contrary to what you may hear on Fox News or from conservative pundits, the Democratic Party isn’t imploding. The happy talk about a collapse may feel good, but it doesn’t reflect political reality. Yes, the party’s popularity has cratered in the polls — down to 27% according to some surveys. Yes, Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Jasmine Crockett of Texas are sideshow acts. And yes, elected officials like Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka allegedly physically assaulted ICE agents at a detention facility in New Jersey.

The sooner the Republican National Committee realizes it’s running from behind in 2026, the better.

But don’t assume any of that will cost Democrats elections.

Democratic voters have shown time and again that they either don’t mind obscene behavior from their leaders or they flat-out enjoy it. Don’t expect outrage over arrests or outbursts to suddenly translate into ballot-box blowback. Polls may show the party in a deep slump, but that doesn’t automatically translate into lost races. Voters often treat parties as abstractions but candidates as individuals.

That distinction matters. Case in point: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.).

Spanberger, a liberal Democrat, is running away in her race for Virginia governor — despite the Democratic Party’s poor national standing. Unless she commits an unforced error (and even then, the media will likely run interference), she’s on track to succeed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Her GOP opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, is a Marine Corps veteran, a devout Christian, and a compelling conservative voice. She’s also black. But in modern Virginia politics, don’t expect her race to break through the stronghold of the overwhelmingly left-wing black vote — or the white, college-educated suburban women who reliably side with Democrats.

Don’t confuse collapsing party approval with electoral collapse. The left may be unpopular, but it’s still powerful — and that matters more than the polls.

Spanberger may not wave the woke banner, but she’s every bit as culturally left as the rest of her party. Unlike the loudest activists, she avoids the firebrand persona and leans hard into buzzwords like “unity” and “bringing people together.” If elected, expect her to govern just like Ralph Northam (D) — minus the public enthusiasm for post-birth abortion.

Spanberger isn’t unique. Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro (D) follows the same playbook. He speaks calmly, claims to support Israel, and talks about “solving problems,” all while quietly pushing a radical social agenda. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has also mastered the performance. His folksy demeanor wins voters in a red state, even though his positions align with the likes of Tampon Tim Walz and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. He talks like Andy Griffith while voting like Bernie Sanders.

Don’t confuse presentation with moderation.

The Democratic Party hasn’t lost its grip on blue America. It hasn’t even flinched.

RELATED: Red-state rot: How GOP governors are handing power to the left

  Yamac Beyter via iStock/Getty Images

Just look at Philadelphia, where radical District Attorney Larry Krasner (D) just won his primary in a landslide — beating a supposedly more moderate Democrat with over two-thirds of the vote. In New York City, Democrat prosecutor Alvin Bragg’s far-left prosecutions and anti-Trump theatrics haven’t dented his popularity.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for a Republican breakthrough in the deep-blue states. Democrats still dominate Illinois, hold Minnesota, and likely have an edge in Michigan and Wisconsin.

If the Democratic Party were truly in its death throes, it wouldn’t be holding its ground so confidently in the places that matter most.

Winning elections in the United States means collecting the most officially recognized votes. A national party can lag in overall popularity and still dominate the game. Democrats understand that — and play to win, by hook or by crook. Whether through ballot harvesting, lawfare, or machine politics, they know the courts won’t stop them and the legacy media won’t question them.

Their ground game runs deep. Teachers’ unions, public sector workers, black activists, LGBT groups, and college-educated white women fight for them like their paychecks depend on it — because they often do.

Democrats also enjoy bountiful donations from most of those at the top of the income curve, who don’t confuse the crony capitalism from which they benefit with real socialism. Even if the Democrats claim to be fighting plutocracy, they are being swamped with megabucks from the very rich.

Let’s also stop pretending Democrats lack a unified message. Their priorities are crystal clear: DEI, trans ideology, unlimited abortion, open borders, and tax hikes to fund their coalition. Millions of Americans support all or most of this agenda, or at least don’t mind it enough to vote against it.

Fox News may roll its eyes at the clowns in Congress, but those clowns aren’t trying to impress us — or the Fox All-Stars. They’re mobilizing their base, and the base likes what it hears.

The sooner the Republican National Committee realizes it’s running from behind in 2026, the better. Because that’s exactly what it’s doing.