For a decade, not one lukewarm Republican incumbent senator or governor has lost a primary and been replaced by a more conservative challenger under Donald Trump’s leadership of the GOP. That changed Tuesday night.

Four-term U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) did not merely lose to state Attorney General Ken Paxton. He got routed by 28 points.

The Paxton endorsement and Cornyn’s defeat should have marked a turning point in Trump’s political strategy. Instead, they look like the high point of the cycle.

The decisive factor was obvious: Trump finally endorsed the challenger instead of the RINO incumbent. Now, imagine what the party might look like if he had done that over the past five election cycles.

The point is not to dwell on missed opportunities. Upcoming primaries in red states will determine whether conservatives retain any real statewide fighters.

Paxton’s victory proves Trump could finish his term by draining the swamp. Sadly, he more often sides with the swamp or stays silent long enough for moneyed interests to crush more principled candidates.

Most insurgent challengers lack Paxton’s name recognition. But if Trump’s endorsement could move Paxton from a close race to a 240-county rout, it could make lesser-known challengers competitive against weak incumbents. In open seats, a grassroots conservative with Trump’s backing would be nearly unbeatable.

Several upcoming races offer conservatives a chance to make red states actually govern like red states. Too often, Trump is absent or on the wrong side.

Start with Iowa.

Gov. Kim Reynolds is retiring, and Democrats have fielded a credible challenger pretending to be a moderate while running against land grabs. Republicans need a non-corporatist nominee who does not carry the baggage of the status quo Republicans in Congress.

Betting markets have RINO Rep. Randy Feenstra as the heavy favorite for the GOP nomination because he has the most money and name identification. Conservatives have fielded multiple candidates, but with only days until the election, Zach Lahn has the most traction and the clearest message against data centers and land grabs.

Thankfully, Trump has not endorsed Feenstra. But if he endorsed Lahn, Lahn could win outright without a runoff.

The Iowa Senate race shows the opposite problem. Former state Sen. Jim Carlin challenged Sen. Joni Ernst after she obstructed Pete Hegseth’s nomination. Trump should have endorsed Carlin. Instead, he encouraged Ernst to run again. Then, when Ernst retired thanks to Carlin’s hard work, Trump endorsed RINO Rep. Ashley Hinson, ensuring no improvement over Ernst.

Luke Sharrett/Getty Images

Trump made a similar move in Louisiana. Sen. Bill Cassidy was already politically wounded, with conservative challengers in the race. Trump could have helped finish him. Instead, he helped clear the field for Rep. Julia Letlow, a carbon capture supporter backed by major AI money who declined to run when the race looked difficult.

South Dakota presents the next major red-state test.

Sen. Mike Rounds represents everything MAGA claims to hate on social, fiscal, and national security policy. Yet Trump endorsed him last year, clearing the field and guaranteeing no serious opposition. This has become a familiar pattern. A Trump endorsement effectively cancels the primary.

The biggest prize in South Dakota is the governor’s race. After MAGA Inc. promoted Kristi Noem as a conservative champion, many of us warned she was a capricious establishment Republican. Her lieutenant governor, Larry Rhoden, took over the term and now seeks a full one. Rep. Dusty Johnson, former leader of the RINO Main Street Partnership, is also running. So is wealthy businessman Toby Doeden, who claims the MAGA label while pushing data centers.

Speaker Jon Hansen is the only conservative in the race. He led the fight against carbon capture land grabs, helped build a conservative majority in the state House, and fought the abortion amendment, marijuana amendment, and COVID tyranny in South Dakota. Now, he is fighting data centers.

A Trump endorsement would likely win the race for Hansen. Instead, conservatives have to worry that Trump might intervene on the wrong side if the race heads to a runoff.

Anyone who thought Trump’s late endorsement against Cornyn signaled a strategic turning point should look at South Carolina. Trump recently reaffirmed his endorsement of Sen. Lindsey Graham ahead of the June 9 primary against Matt Lynch and several other candidates.

Trump’s endorsements of Graham in 2020 and again now have driven off stronger challengers. That is clearly why, barring a miracle, one of the most obnoxious Republicans in the Senate will probably remain there until he dies.

Even when conservatives cannot defeat incumbent RINOs, they should at least ensure that open seats produce better Republicans. Montana shows how hard the establishment works to prevent that.

Trump and the RINO establishment that runs the Montana GOP helped execute a sleazy scheme around Sen. Steve Daines’ retirement. Daines announced his retirement on the filing deadline while the establishment had U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme lined up to walk into the seat without a primary. The goal was obvious: avoid a competitive race from a member of the Montana Freedom Caucus.

Meanwhile, Gov. Greg Gianforte, another RINO Trump ally, is at war with the state Freedom Caucus and is spending heavily to defeat conservative incumbents in the legislature next Tuesday.

Matt Rourke/Pool/Getty Images

This pattern keeps repeating. Trump elevates, preserves, and empowers statewide GOP leaders who hate conservatives. Those leaders then turn their guns on freedom caucus members in their own legislatures.

Idaho proved the point last week. Trump’s endorsement of Gov. Brad Little for a third term helped keep him in power. Little then spent hundreds of thousands of dollars helping defeat five conservatives in the legislature.

North Dakota shows the same dynamic. Trump cleared the field for governor two years ago and helped install Rep. Kelly Armstrong, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress. Armstrong is not up for re-election this year, so he is using his money and clout to target the few conservatives in a legislature with almost no official Democrats but plenty of undocumented ones.

Trump has generally stayed out of state legislative races. But his long shadow of RINO endorsements now creates a greater headwind against conservative candidates than ever before.

And don’t even get me started on Trump’s endorsement of Byron Donalds in Florida to replace the greatest governor of this generation.

The Paxton endorsement and Cornyn’s defeat should have marked a turning point in Trump’s political strategy. Instead, they look like the high point of the cycle.

From here, conservatives have every reason to worry that Trump will return to his old habit: rewarding the swamp, clearing the field for weak Republicans, and leaving the movement’s best fighters to fend for themselves.

'We will not be intimidated': Republican gubernatorial candidate claims his house was target of arson attack in Florida

While James Fishback, a Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate, has seen a good deal of campaign success since the launch of his campaign in late November, he has also seen a great deal of resistance — and potentially intimidation.

On Sunday night, Fishback's campaign alleged that a fire was "intentionally set" near his house, where he and his team were working.

'I'll be hosting a rally in my own backyard tomorrow night.'

Emma Wright, Fishback's campaign manager, posted an official statement less than an hour after the alleged incident.

"Shortly after 5:50 p.m. on Sunday, a fire was intentionally set in his side yard and began spreading toward his home, where Mr. Fishback and members of his staff were working. We are grateful to the Madison County Fire Rescue for their swift response and for containing the fire before it damaged his home," the statement read.

Photo by Al Drago/Getty Images

Fishback's campaign also condemned political violence of any kind, stressing that it has "no place in America."

Fishback quote-tweeted the statement from his campaign manager, adding, "My team and I are okay."

In a post that has since received 560,000 views, Fishback provided some photos of the scene, including what appears to be a burned area of a yard with the fire department on the scene.

Fishback followed up with a few more posts in the hours following the alleged attack, including an invitation to an unconventional rally.

"I'll be hosting a rally in my own backyard tomorrow night," he wrote just hours after the alleged incident on Sunday. "We will not be intimidated."

Shortly thereafter, he added an invitation to his house for a "backyard rally." The invitation included what appears to be his home address in Madison, Florida. The rally will be held on Monday night.

Blaze News reached out to Madison County Fire Rescue for comment. The Fishback campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

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Trump’s primary endorsements are sabotaging his own agenda

Imagine what the Republican Party would have looked like had President Trump been endorsing conservative reformers down-ballot rather than milquetoast RINOs backed by special interests for five consecutive cycles.

In 2016, President Trump stormed the corporatist castle of the country-club GOP. But over the next five election cycles, he pulled up the rope ladder behind him. He left the reinforcements outside the gates, which crushed his ability to deliver on his promises in his first term. It also allowed generic Republicans to ride his brand while drifting away from his original America First message.

Conservatives understand that competition improves a product. When Trump protects incumbents from primary pressure, he guarantees that the party never improves.

Now he is making the same mistake in his second term by backing status-quo, corporatist Republicans in key races.

2026 is do or die

The opening months of 2026 should be the Super Bowl of primaries for the right. Vulnerable establishment Republicans and open seats sit on the board across solid red states — for Senate and governor.

Even if Republicans struggle in swing states, Trump could still lock in a generation of red-state power by backing grassroots conservatives in open seats and insurgents challenging weak incumbents.

Instead, he keeps yanking the rug out from under his own base.

Louisiana bait and switch

Over the weekend, the president endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) for U.S. Senate in Louisiana. Until now, Trump has refused to back conservatives against incumbents — except when he endorsed against Freedom Caucus Chairman Rep. Bob Good of Virginia in 2024.

So yes, Trump finally moved against Sen. Bill Cassidy, a pro-COVID-vaccine liberal wasting a conservative seat. But he waited until more conservative candidates — state Treasurer John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez, and state Rep. Julie Emerson — softened Cassidy up. Then Trump picked a challenger who matches Cassidy’s worldview in a prettier package.

Letlow sides with Cassidy on government-run health care and the COVID vaccines. She also voted against penalizing FDA officials for unlawfully expanding access to mifepristone. Trump carried Louisiana by 22 points and won 57 of 64 parishes. He could have used his clout to elect a conservative stalwart like Miguez. Instead, he chose another version of the same problem.

Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Governors matter now

If Democrats regain Washington, governors become the last real barrier against federal abuse. Red-state governors will matter more than ever, especially if Democrats install a weaponized Gavin Newsom-style agenda at the national level.

After Ron DeSantis turned Florida from swing state into the red-state model, Republicans should be building an entire bench of governors who make even DeSantis look tame. But Trump’s endorsement habits keep locking in mediocrity. In Florida, he is backing Byron Donalds — a favorite of the legislative RINOs who fought DeSantis for years.

Fourteen governorships are up in states Republicans should win even in a rough year: Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming. Trump hasn’t made one bold, movement-building endorsement as he did with DeSantis in 2018. Instead, he has already pre-emptively endorsed Idaho Gov. Brad Little for a third term and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for a fourth.

Texas betrayal rewarded

Trump has started interfering even in state legislative races. In Texas, Republicans cut a deal with Democrats and installed Dustin Burrows as speaker against the will of most of the party. Burrows rewarded them by handing committees to Democrats and killing conservative priorities.

When conservatives moved to defeat the traitors, Trump carpet-bombed the effort by endorsing Burrows and his lieutenants for re-election.

Conservatives understand that competition improves a product. Trump keeps canceling that competition. When he protects incumbents from primary pressure, he guarantees that the party never improves.

Florida Gubernatorial Candidate Accused of 'Grooming' Minor May Not Even Be Eligible For Election

James Fishback, the 31-year-old alleged groomer and head of a troubled asset management firm who is running an insurgent campaign to succeed Florida governor Ron DeSantis (R.), claimed a Washington, D.C., condo as his primary residence through 2025 and voted in the district in 2020, records obtained by the Washington Free Beacon show. The documents raise questions about Fishback's eligibility to serve as governor, given that Florida's constitution requires gubernatorial candidates to have lived in the state for the preceding seven years.

The post Florida Gubernatorial Candidate Accused of 'Grooming' Minor May Not Even Be Eligible For Election appeared first on .

Florida Congressional Hopeful Has Close Ties to Pedophile, 'Lives' at Home Owned by His Convicted Murderer Father: Aaron Baker Is an Ally of Gubernatorial Candidate James Fishback

Congressional candidate Aaron Baker, an ally of controversial Florida gubernatorial hopeful James Fishback, bills himself as "the only Republican candidate living & working in" the Florida district he's running to represent in a primary challenge to freshman congressman Randy Fine. But records show Baker established ties to the district just two years ago, when he registered to vote at a property purchased by his convicted murderer and opioid trafficker father.

The post Florida Congressional Hopeful Has Close Ties to Pedophile, 'Lives' at Home Owned by His Convicted Murderer Father: Aaron Baker Is an Ally of Gubernatorial Candidate James Fishback appeared first on .

Six questions Trump and conservatives can no longer dodge in ’26

For conservatives, January 2025 felt like an auspicious moment to be alive. Donald Trump sat atop the world with a bully pulpit larger than any media outlet and the power to drive virtually any narrative he chose. Yet instead of using that power, we spent the year arguing over the power the GOP supposedly lacked.

Almost no legislation was passed. Many of the most transformational policies Trump enacted through executive action now sit mired in the courts.

Where is our Mamdani?

Fast-forward to January 2026. The economy looks grim. Democrats are crushing Republicans in special elections. It feels like a different universe.

Republicans tend to operate on a familiar two-year cycle. After a victory, the first year involves explaining why campaign promises cannot be fulfilled. The second year, ending in November elections, turns into defensive posturing: As disappointed as voters may be, they must remember that Democrats represent instant political death.

The implication stays constant. Voters must dutifully back the GOP, ignore the fact that Republicans currently hold power, and politely bypass the primary process out of fear of weakening resistance to Democrats.

As we enter the new year, we have reached the “rally around the GOP to stop the Democrats” phase of the cycle once again.

But reality intrudes. No matter how faithfully the base rallies, Republicans will likely lose in November because of the economy. Absent a dramatic national reset, Democrats will retake the House, probably with a substantial majority.

That makes the present moment decisive. With trifecta control still intact for now, Republicans must use what power they have to improve daily life, enact changes harder to undo, and reinforce red-state America so the coming blue wave does not obliterate the remaining red firewall.

Whether Republicans break free from their familiar cycle of election-failure theater comes down to the answers to these six questions.

1. Will the red firewall hold?

Republicans will likely lose the House and surrender residual power in battleground states such as Georgia and Arizona. Independents have abandoned the GOP, and that trend will accelerate as economic conditions worsen.

The question is whether Republicans will give their voters something worth turning out for. Base turnout alone will not flip purple territory, but it could stop the bleeding deep into red states and keep races such as the Iowa and Ohio governorships out of reach.

This past year made clear that Republicans are losing races they never should have had to defend. A deeper economic downturn would push that line even farther.

2. How toxic do AI data centers become — and will Republicans notice?

By the end of 2025, opposition to data centers surged across ideological lines. Communities worry about water use, power strain, housing values, and secondary effects.

Democrats have begun embracing that resistance as Trump elevates data centers and tech interests as pillars of his economic agenda. Will this issue fracture Republicans’ coalition or even force a break with Trump?

3. What will Republicans do with health care?

Democrats engineered a trap that forces Republicans to address health care, the single largest driver of deficits, inflation, and household pain.

Obamacare made unsubsidized insurance unaffordable for most Americans. Democrats then timed the expiration of expanded subsidies to land on Trump’s watch, ensuring that voters blame him rather than the law’s architects.

Anything Trump does — or refuses to do — will be pinned on him. That reality argues for pushing a genuinely free-market repeal-and-replace that lowers costs. History suggests that outcome remains unlikely. I’m not holding my breath, anyway.

4. Will Trump finally ignore a lawless court?

Could a powerless judge issue a ruling so egregious that it would prompt Trump to defy it at long last?

I am not holding my breath on that one, either.

Photo by Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images

5. Will Trump clear the decks on his promises dating back to 2015?

Democrats will likely control one or both chambers for the remainder of Trump’s term. Regardless of strategy, they probably win the midterms.

That means Trump has nothing to lose by executing fully on his original agenda now. Immigration moratoria, judicial reform, welfare devolution, bans on the Council on American-Islamic Relations and Antifa — these changes should be forced through every “must-pass” bill available.

An all-out approach carries policy upside and political clarity.

6. Will Trump stop making bad primary endorsements?

This year’s primaries matter far more than the general election. They will determine whether red states have leaders willing to defend their prerogatives when Democrats reclaim federal power.

If Trump continues endorsing lackluster governors and candidates such as Byron Donalds in Florida, Greg Abbott in Texas, and Brad Little in Idaho, conservatives will have nowhere to retreat when figures like Zohran Mamdani dominate national politics.

Photo by Amir Hamja-Pool/Getty Images

Mamdani’s takeover of New York and his appointment of Ramzi Kassem — a 9/11 al-Qaeda defense lawyer — as chief counsel drew outrage on the right. At his inauguration, Mamdani declared, “We’ll replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.”

Rather than merely lamenting how Marxists consolidate power in deep-blue America, conservatives should let that example ignite action where they actually govern. If the left can floor the gas pedal in its strongholds, why can’t we?

Where is our Mamdani?

This moment demands urgency. GOP power has become a “use it or lose it” proposition. Trump must finally become the right-wing disruptor his supporters were promised.

If he cannot — or will not — then Republicans deserve to go the way of the Whigs.

Trump’s endorsement power keeps saving the wrong Republicans

'We will not be intimidated': Republican gubernatorial candidate claims his house was target of arson attack in Florida

Trump’s primary endorsements are sabotaging his own agenda

2026 is do or die

Louisiana bait and switch

Governors matter now

Texas betrayal rewarded

Florida Gubernatorial Candidate Accused of 'Grooming' Minor May Not Even Be Eligible For Election

Florida Congressional Hopeful Has Close Ties to Pedophile, 'Lives' at Home Owned by His Convicted Murderer Father: Aaron Baker Is an Ally of Gubernatorial Candidate James Fishback

Six questions Trump and conservatives can no longer dodge in ’26

1. Will the red firewall hold?

2. How toxic do AI data centers become — and will Republicans notice?

3. What will Republicans do with health care?

4. Will Trump finally ignore a lawless court?

5. Will Trump clear the decks on his promises dating back to 2015?

6. Will Trump stop making bad primary endorsements?

New Docuseries Probes Baseball Legend Pete Rose And His ‘Victimless’ Crimes

Biden says the Catholic Church wouldn't agree with Lindsey Graham's abortion bill

Why Trump must block Netflix’s Warner Bros. takeover

Boasberg’s Senate Spying Gag Order Violated Federal Law

Loyalty to the United States is non-negotiable for Congress members

Pete Rose reinstated as eligible for Hall of Fame — but new rule will revive MLB's darkest era

Democrat Representative Urges Protesters To Harass Congressmen At Church

Can We Put Pete Rose In The Baseball Hall Of Fame Now?

2026 is do or die

Louisiana bait and switch

Governors matter now

Texas betrayal rewarded

1. Will the red firewall hold?

2. How toxic do AI data centers become — and will Republicans notice?

3. What will Republicans do with health care?

4. Will Trump finally ignore a lawless court?

5. Will Trump clear the decks on his promises dating back to 2015?

6. Will Trump stop making bad primary endorsements?

We’ll keep you informed with top stories for conservatives who want to become informed decision makers.