'Wake the f*** up': James Carville sends Democrats stern warning about Biden's re-election chances against Trump



Democratic strategist James Carville is warning the Democratic Party about President Joe Biden's re-election campaign.

Speaking with comedian Bill Maher on his podcast this week, Carville offered a blunt message for the Democratic Party about Biden's re-election chances: "Somebody better wake the f*** up."

"Let's assume the election was Nov. 3 of this year and the candidates are Joe Biden, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Joe Manchin and Larry Hogan, No Labels, and Cornel West. Trump would be a betting favorite," Carville said. "If I told you I would give you even money, you would not take that bet. All right?

"And so somebody better wake the f*** up," Carville warned.

Maher joked that he might consider taking an even-money bet on that proposition but told Carville, "You're right. I'm totally on the same page."

"In 2020, maybe [Biden] was the only one who could have beaten Trump. I think now he's the only one who will lose to him," Maher added.

James Carville | Club Random with Bill Maher youtu.be

The problem, Maher argued, is that "at some point, perception becomes reality," and for Biden that means Americans will believe the perception that Biden is too old for the job.

"He cannot run for president. He'l look bad in the debates. It's just too much. And he's — I think, going to lose," Maher continued. "He will be Ruth Bader Biden, the Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the presidency. It's not a good look. And any 50-ish, not-stupid woke Democrat with a 'D' by their name — people just vote 'D' and 'R' — that person can win."

"Could win easily," Carville agreed. "If we had somebody under 60 and ran against Trump, we'd get 55%."

Donald Trump and Biden remain in a dead heat. Most surveys polling a hypothetical rematch show both candidates within the statistical margin of error; sometimes Biden has the advantage, while other times Trump does.

And while it's unwise to read too much into polling more than a year away from Election Day, the dead-heat results likely indicate that Biden is a weaker candidate than in 2020.

As CNN's data expert Harry Enten has explained, that is because Biden maintained a sizable lead over Trump in the polling ahead of that election. Therefore, the fact that Biden cannot pull away from Trump now indicates that Biden is weaker, Trump is stronger, and the race will be closer than in 2020 — if, indeed, it is a rematch.

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Polling expert loses it over new poll showing Trump is crushing Biden by double digits: 'So absurd on its face'



Political prediction expert Larry Sabato called out the Washington Post on Sunday over a new poll showing Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by double digits.

What did the poll show?

The shocking Washington Post/ABC News poll found that if the election were held today, Trump would crush Biden among registered voters, 52% to 42%.

Moreover, the survey found that Biden's job approval stands at a dismal 37% — a metric that in and of itself signals Biden will lose re-election — because the majority of Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy and the border crisis.

To make matters worse for Biden, approximately two-thirds of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning voters want the Democratic Party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024. Most of those respondents aren't picky about who his successor is — they just want someone other than Biden.

The poll also found that most Americans do not believe Biden is being unfairly targeted by House Republicans, who have opened an impeachment inquiry over allegations of corruption against Biden. Instead, 58% of respondents said Biden is being "held accountable" while just 32% said he is being "unfairly victimized by his political opponents."

What was the reaction?

Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, condemned the Washington Post for publishing the poll because, in his view, the results are "laughable."

"Ignore the Washington Post – ABC poll. It’s a ridiculous outlier (Trump up 10 over Biden—laughable)," Sabato reacted. "My question: How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you."

— (@)

In another reaction post, Sabato said he is "torn between scoffing and laughing" at the poll's results.

Another data expert, Nate Cohn of the New York Times, also called out the Washington Post for describing the poll as "probably an outlier."

"It's really really hard to release outlying poll results, so you've got to give credit to ABC/Post here, but I do have a fairly major quibble with ABC/Post here: if you release consecutive 'outlying' poll results — R+7 in May, R+10 today — you don't get to dismiss your results," Cohn reacted.

"If it happens twice in a row in the same race, it's clear that this is the result of some element of your approach, and either you either need to decide you're good with it and defend it or you need to go home," he said.

— (@)

While the poll seems like an outlier because no other survey has shown Trump with such a significant lead — almost every other poll shows Trump and Biden locked in a dead heat within the statistical margin of error — it's not clear what in the poll's methodology may have produced the result.

Some critics have suggested Republicans were oversampled, but the poll asked respondents about their party affiliation. Only 25% identified as Republican, while 25% identified as Democrats and 42% identified as independents.

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Democrats panic over Trump campaign's 'kinda genius' strategy amid auto worker strike: 'Trump scooped us'



Some Democrats are panicking that Donald Trump is "outmaneuvering" President Joe Biden, according to a new report.

On Monday, the New York Times reported that Trump will skip the second Republican primary debate on Sept. 27 to visit Detroit, where he will meet with auto union workers. The decision was made just days after the United Auto Workers went on strike.

Trump's decision to skip the debate and engage with union workers, according to the Times, shows that his campaign is looking past the Republican primary and focusing its efforts on campaigning against Biden. And unfortunately for the president, that's also exactly how some Democrats understand it, Politico reported.

"Trump scooped us. Now if we announce we're going, it looks like we're just going because of Trump," a Democratic strategist told Politico. "We waited too long. That's the challenge."

The decision to head to Detroit before Biden, a union adviser told Politico, shows that Trump "actually has people who know what they're doing."

"He boxed Biden in. It was kinda genius," the union adviser said.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who is helping Biden with the autoworker strike, agreed and suggested Biden lacks a successful campaign message that resonates with working-class Americans, like those on the picket line.

"We should not underestimate Donald Trump. He's a survivor and this is going to be a very hard-fought campaign," Khanna said.

"We need a message to working-class Americans," he added. "Right now, they're still hurting in terms of gas prices, food prices, housing costs, utilities costs, and they don't feel like their wages are going up fast enough, and they feel like the very wealthy are getting too much of the rewards. That's what I heard on the picket lines."

The Biden campaign and White House aides, of course, do not believe Trump is "outmaneuvering" Biden. After all, Democrats almost always win union endorsements.

But as Politico noted, Trump won "many rank-and-file union members in 2016," and the White House — by canceling plans to send two top aides to Detroit — is certainly at odds with the unions. That tension is something Trump's campaign will try to exploit beginning this week to build on previous momentum with rank-and-file union workers.

Ahead of his visit, Trump is airing radio ads supporting the workers.

"All they've ever wanted is to compete fairly worldwide and get their fair share of the American dream," the ad says, according to the Times. "Donald Trump calls them great Americans and has always had their backs."

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Legal scholar exposes the constitutional 'technicality' that sinks effort to disqualify Trump from ballot



Constitutional law scholar Steven Calabresi no longer believes the Constitution disqualifies Donald Trump from being re-elected to the White House.

Last month, Calabresi, a law professor at Northwestern, endorsed the theory that Trump is constitutionally disqualified from running for president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Calabresi argued Trump broke his oath of office when he participated in an "insurrection or rebellion" on Jan. 6, 2021.

But now Calabresi has changed his mind completely.

Calabresi — who emphasized that he is a "Never Trumper" and would vote for a Democrat over Trump — explained in a new essay that a "technicality in the drafting" of Section 3 means it "does not apply to Trump."

The question centers on whether Trump was "an officer of the United States" on Jan. 6. This is critical to the theory because Trump is not a member of any of the other groups — members of Congress, members of state legislatures, or state executive and judicial officers — that Section 3 targets.

And, according to Calabresi, "officer of the United States" is a "legal term of art" that does not apply to Trump.

To bolster his case, Calabresi relies on intratextualism to discern how the phrase is used in other parts of the Constitution, specifically Article II:

  • The Commission Clause, (Article II, Section 3), which states that presidents "shall commission all the officers of the United States." But as Calabresi noted, not a single president in U.S. history "has ever, either before or after, the ratification of the Fourteenth Amendment commissioned himself."
  • The Appointments Clause, (Article II, Section 2), which states that presidents "shall nominate ... all other officers of the United States." And as Calabresi explained, the clause "is used to describe appointed persons and not elected persons like the members of Congress or the president."
  • The Impeachment Clause, (Article II, Section 4), which lists the president and vice president separately from "all civil officers of the United States."

The sum total of textual evidence, Calabresi argued, means Trump can appear on the ballot in 2024.

Textual evidence aside, Calabresi said that using the 14th Amendment to disqualify Trump "would set a bad precedent for American politics" because the legal argument is "a very muddled area of constitutional law" that has resulted in a "confused state of the law."

The 14th Amendment argument gained significant traction after a law article in the University of Pennsylvania Law Review made a comprehensive argument for Trump's disqualification.

That argument, however, is already being scrutinized and picked apart.

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Pelosi tries to help Kamala Harris when asked simple question about 2024 — but accidentally kneecaps her instead



House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D) refused to answer on Wednesday a simple question about Vice President Kamala Harris and the 2024 election.

CNN anchor Anderson Cooper asked Pelosi whether she believes Harris is the "best running mate" to help President Joe Biden win re-election. But instead of answering the question with a "yes" or "no," the California Democrat responded with the five Ds of dodgeball: dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge.

"[Biden] thinks so and that's what matters," she told Cooper.

"Do you think so?" Cooper followed up.

Cooper's second attempt also proved to be a failure. Pelosi described Harris as "very politically astute" and someone who does not get "enough credit." But she did not say whether she personally believes Harris is the correct running mate for Biden.

"But do you think she is the best running mate though?" Cooper asked a third time.

In this instance, the third time was not the charm. In fact, Pelosi acknowledged that Harris barely does anything and justifed her lack of accomplishment as something that comes with vice presidential territory.

"She is the vice president of the United States. Some people say to me, 'Well, why isn't she doing this or that?' I say, because she's the vice president. That's the job description. You don't do that much, you know," Pelosi told Cooper.

Cooper asks Pelosi twice if Harris is best running mate for Biden youtu.be

The question was prompted by David Ignatius' most recent Washington Post column in which he declared that neither Biden nor Harris should run for re-election if Democrats want an opportunity to retain control of the White House.

Pelosi never stated her position on the matter, obviously in an attempt to help Harris. But what she didn't say spoke louder than what she did say.

The fact that Pelosi neither wants to endorse Harris for re-election nor outright say that Harris is a liability to the 2024 Democratic Party ticket implies Pelosi believes Democrats stand a better chance at retaining the White House with a different vice presidential candidate but cannot say who exactly that person should be without showing political weakness.

On the other hand, she gave Cooper a definitive answer when asked whether Biden is the best presidential candidate for Democrats in 2024: "Yes."

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Joe Scarborough reveals what Democrats tell him about Biden in private — and it's not good for Biden



MSNBC host Joe Scarborough revealed Wednesday that every Democrat he speaks with privately questions why President Joe Biden is running for re-election.

Speaking with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius about his column arguing that neither Biden nor Vice President Kamala Harris should run for re-election, Scarborough shared a personal anecdote supporting the thesis of Ignatius' column.

According to Scarborough, while Democrats publicly support Biden, behind closed doors, they are questioning his re-election campaign because of his age and unpopularity.

"Mika and I, everybody we talk to, every political discussion — it talks a lot about Trump, but when it comes to Joe Biden, people say, 'Man, he's too old to run, isn't he? He's not really going to run?'" Scarborough revealed.

"When I say every discussion, I don't mean 99% of the discussion. Every discussion," he emphasized. "I asked Reverend Al if he was hearing it all the time on our show this past week. He's hearing it as well."

'I have my concerns': David Ignatius says Biden shouldn't run again youtu.be

The private admissions, Scarborough went on to say, show that Democrats are doing exactly what they have criticized Republicans of doing regarding Donald Trump.

"So, you know, we often will complain about Republicans who will say one thing about Donald Trump off the air and another on air," he said. "Well, let me just say: Democrats, off the air, will say, 'Joe Biden's too old. Why is he running?' On the air? They won't say that."

Poll after poll have confirmed what Ignatius fears and Scarborough spoke about.

The latest CNN poll, for example, found that a whopping two-thirds of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want someone other that Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024. Their concern with Biden? His age, health, mental sharpness, and overall ability to carry out his presidential duties.

That poll came on the heels of an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey that found that 69% of Democratic voters believe Biden is "too old."

The problem for Democrats is: if Biden is too old and too unpopular to win re-election, who can they nominate to give them a serious shot at retaining the White House?

For their part, Scarborough and Ignatius admitted they cannot name a single Democrat prepared for that task.

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'No way to spin this': CNN mourns new poll showing dismal outlook for Joe Biden's re-election hopes



CNN anchor Dana Bash declared Thursday that it's impossible "to spin" the network's latest poll showing a dismal outlook for President Joe Biden.

The poll found that Biden's job approval is just 39%, the lowest rating since the height of the inflation crisis last year. Even worse, the survey found that in a hypothetical rematch for the White House between Biden and Donald Trump, Trump would win: 47% to 46%.

But the knockout blow, the poll found, is that two-thirds (67%) of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want the Democratic Party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024.

Importantly, the poll indicates the majority of Democratic voters (82%) don't have another particular candidate in mind — they just want someone, anyone other than Biden. Their biggest concerns about Biden are his age, his mental sharpness, his health, and his overall ability to carry out his presidential duties.

What was the reaction?

CNN did not sugarcoat the significance of the poll.

Bash opened her show, "Inside Politics," by declaring that "there is no way to spin this."

"CNN reads the country's mood right now and find that America is deeply unhappy with Joe Biden," Bash said. "Most Democratic voters hope for change at the top of the ticket, and Americans don't take the president and his word when he talks about his son Hunter."

David Chalian, CNN's political director, told Bash the poll is "setting off alarm bells inside the Biden campaign in the White House."

Earlier, Chalian noted that Biden's approval rating at this point in his presidency is the second-worst in the modern era — only Jimmy Carter's was worse — which suggests he is on track to lose re-election.

Meanwhile, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten explained why this poll shows a "vastly different" landscape compared to 2020.

"[W]hat I will note was there was not a single poll conducted by CNN during the entire 2020 cycle in which Donald Trump got a higher share of the vote than Joe Biden did," he said. "So, this is a vastly different picture from what we saw four years ago."

— (@)

Enten also pointed to a poll metric that is good for Trump: voter motivation.

"This is another potentially good sign for Donald Trump," Enten explained. "Biden vs. Trump, this is the margin: among those extremely motivated to vote, Trump is up by 6%. Among all other voters, Biden's up by 6%.

"But these are the voters who are probably most likely to come out and vote. So, I think there's a real question for Joe Biden. Can he motivate those who may not like either candidate or may be lukewarm on him come out and vote? Because if he can, now it would be favorable for him," he continued. "But at this particular point, there's just a lot of good signs for Donald Trump in this poll, given all the stuff that's been going on for him and many not-so-great signs for Joe Biden."

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Joy Behar gives Chris Christie a title that won't go over well with Republican voters: 'Champion to the left'



"The View" co-host Joy Behar bestowed on Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie a title that he probably wants to throw away and never hear again.

Speaking on a behind-the-scenes podcast for “The View,” Behar admitted she is “excited” about the prospect of talking with Christie on this season of “The View” because she likes how the former New Jersey governor is running his campaign.

In fact, according to Behar, Christie is right now a "champion" to Democrats.

"I want to say to Chris Christie, 'Sir, you have been a champion to the left right now because you have told the truth about Donald Trump,'" Behar said.


Still, Behar said she would like to grill Christie over a moment in last month's Republican primary debate.

Of the question she would like to ask, Behar said, "So when they asked you, ‘Would you vote for [Trump]?' why were you hesitant in raising your hand? Why don’t you just raise your damn hand and say, 'I’m going to vote for him,' if that’s what you believe? That won’t please me, but that’s the truth. Then do it."

Whether Christie raised his hand or not is unclear. The New York Times explained the moment:

Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey and the Trump ally-turned-enemy, appeared to raise his hand, too, in a halfhearted way, before wagging a finger; he later said he wasn’t answering the question but was simply seeking recognition to explain why he wouldn’t support a convicted Mr. Trump

TheBlaze reached out to Christie's campaign for a response to Behar's comments, but the campaign did not respond.

Meanwhile, Politico confirmed last week exactly what Behar said: Democrats are drawn to Christie's campaign because of "his new Trump-bashing persona." And his campaign is not necessarily disinterested in their support.

"If Democrats want to donate or vote for him, we’re open to that," a campaign representative told Politico, saying Democratic support might be "expected" because Christie governed a blue state.

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CNBC anchor gets frank with Biden's top economic adviser about the truth on 'Bidenomics': 'It's not working'



CNBC anchor Joe Kernen confronted a top Biden adviser on Tuesday over the administration's failing "Bidenomics" message.

The president's top economic adviser, Jared Bernstein, went on "Squawk Box" and painted a rosy picture about the economy. He claimed that "Bidenomics in action is helping, it's working, it's helping to build the economy from the bottom up and the middle out."

It's good rhetoric, no doubt. But Kernen was not buying it.

Kernen pointed to stories in the Wall Street Journal and New York Post detailing Biden's economic woes. Specifically, he brought attention to Biden's falsehood that he has cut the deficit "when, in fact, it's going to be $2 trillion — double last year — and the cuts that he did make are based on cutting from the pandemic level."

"So, it's kind of disingenuous," Kernen declared. "All that taken together, it leaves a very sour case in most people's mouths."

Kernen even took issue with Bernstein specifically, who, according to the CNBC host, likes to claim that Americans are "more optimistic" about the economy if you ask them individually.

"But," Kernen countered, "only one-third consistently of Americans buy into your contention that Bidenomics is working. So maybe you need to come on every day because it's not working, your message."

In response, Bernstein claimed he is not "discounting" poll data, but said they only show American sentiment from "30 or 40,000 feet up."

Meanwhile, Bernstein listed only two metrics to support his claim: that Americans support Biden's intervention on pharmaceuticals and they support providing manufacturing companies tax incentives to create more jobs, a rather risk-free policy that most Americans would support, no matter who implemented it.

"So, I think it's an inaccurate narrative to declare that somehow Bidenomics isn't working or that it's not favorably received by people when you drill down into what it actually is," he contended.

Notably, Bernstein did not provide data on inflation, wages, employment data, the deficit, or any other meaningful economic metric to support his claim. On the other hand, the latest Wall Street Journal poll definitively showed that Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy.

An inaccurate narrative to declare Bidenomics not working: CEA Chair Jared Bernstein youtu.be

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ABC panel amazed at 'shocking' new data showing Trump's political strength despite indictments: 'We have to respect'



An ABC News panel expressed shock on Sunday that President Joe Biden is not building any electoral lead over Donald Trump despite his predecessor's legal troubles.

Over the weekend, a new Wall Street Journal poll found that Trump and Biden are tied (46%) among registered voters. Not only are they tied, but Trump's standing with voters has improved compared to the same WSJ poll conducted in April. That survey found that Biden had a three-point lead over Trump. So not only is Trump gaining despite four criminal indictments, but Biden is slipping.

ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos found the result "shocking."

"It is kind of shocking in a way that, despite all of the baggage that Donald Trump carries, he's tied with Joe Biden right now," Stephanopoulos said on ABC News' "This Week."

Democratic strategist Donna Brazile, the former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, admitted the poll seriously troubles her.

"George, when I looked at that recent poll, the Wall Street Journal, I said, 'Oh, this could keep me up at night,'" Brazile admitted, explaining that Biden and the Democratic Party are having trouble connecting with younger voters.

— (@)

Later in the segment, Brazile said Trump has orchestrated a political "movement" that demands "respect."

"I'm old enough to say this: I've seen two movements outside of the social justice movements in my life on the political side," Brazile said. "One was the Reagan movement. Reagan had a hold on his base. The country at large, they saw him as someone who was willing to stand up for American values, whatever that might have meant. Now I thought it was reactionary. The other movement I saw was Barack Obama, hope and change. That galvanized the American people.

"I’ve never seen anything like this with Donald Trump," she continued. "I mean, what doesn't kill you make you stronger? I mean, being indicted, that's making him stronger? Raising $10 million using an ugly mug shot to raise money? This is a movement.

"And anyone who thinks that you can apply the old political rules to try to defeat this candidate based on 'he's scary, he's ugly' — whatever you might want to call him — this is a movement. And we have to respect the fact that it's a movement," she admitted.

‘Shocking’: George Stunned By New Poll Showing Trump and Biden Deadlocked Despite Trump’s ‘Baggage’ www.youtube.com

Reihan Salam, president of the Manhattan Institute, also explained that Trump is "incredibly shrewd and disciplined when he’s focused on the political."

"When he's focused on the issues, he speaks in a very accessible way that could be meaningful in a general election," Salam said.

Salam further explained that Trump has "galvanized" voters who are suspicious of the "establishment." And fortunately for Trump, the number of American voters who are "more suspicious" and "less trusting" of the government is growing.

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