The results are in: Tallying up Biden’s immigration damage



Most mainstream press accounts have largely ignored one obvious source of the Los Angeles riots — namely, that the Biden administration released more than enough illegal aliens into this country to populate a wholly new Los Angeles. In the aftermath of those riots, it’s an appropriate time to ask this question: How many illegal aliens did the Biden administration actually let into the United States?

According to the Congressional Budget Office, from 2021 through 2024, a net 10.3 million people immigrated to the United States. That figure reflects the number of (legal or illegal) immigrants who entered the U.S., minus the number who left. As a result of this huge immigration influx, the portion of the U.S. population that is foreign-born hit 16.2%, per the Congressional Budget Office, surpassing the all-time record of 14.8% set in 1890. That mark lasted for more than 130 years, but it couldn’t survive the Biden administration.

One can only wonder how many potential terrorists got across Biden’s porous border without being encountered.

In fact, the percentage of the population that is foreign-born is probably even higher than 16.2%, as that figure was for 2023 (up from 15.6% in 2022). Since a net 2.7 million people immigrated to the U.S. in 2024, according to the CBO, and about 500,000 foreign-born residents die annually (based on the CBO’s estimate for 2023), the foreign-born population rose by an estimated 2.2 million in 2024 — from 55.1 million to about 57.3 million. So the percentage of the population that is foreign-born likely hit about 16.8% last year (57.3 million out of 342 million). In comparison, in 1970, the portion of the U.S. population that was foreign-born was 4.7%, which is just over a quarter of the current rate.

Put another way, on the cusp of next year’s quarter-millennial anniversary of American independence, about one out of every six people now living in the U.S. is foreign-born, versus one out of every 21 on the eve of the bicentennial. That’s a massive population transformation — one unlike anything our country has ever experienced.

Record-breaking numbers

Most of those who were added to the foreign-born population during the Biden years were added illegally. From 2021 through 2024 — a period that coincides almost perfectly with Biden’s presidential term (having 97% overlap) — the net increase in the number of illegal aliens in the U.S., based on CBO estimates, was 7.1 million people. In comparison, the entire population of Los Angeles is 3.9 million.

Note that this represents the net increase. The gross increase in the number of illegal aliens under Biden was likely close to 10 million. The CBO only estimates the gross increase for a portion of Biden’s term, but its partial tallies can yield a reasonable estimate for the whole four-year span.

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Citing numbers obtained from the Department of Homeland Security, the CBO estimates that in 2023 and 2024, the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. was 5.9 million, while the net increase was 4.3 million. That’s about four new illegal aliens added (by being released into the country, evading capture, or overstaying a legal authorization) for every one that was subtracted (by leaving or being legalized).

So the ratio between the gross increase and the net increase was about 4 to 3. Assuming the same ratio in 2021 and 2022 — when the CBO estimates that the net increase in the number of illegal aliens was 2.9 million — suggests the gross increase over that span was about 3.9 million. Adding the 5.9 million cited above reveals a gross increase of about 9.8 million illegal aliens across Biden’s four years. That’s more than the population of New York City — or all of New Jersey.

The CBO switched from using fiscal-year figures for 2023 to using calendar-year figures for 2024 in estimating the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens (and the releases, evasions, and overstays that compose that gross increase). But the number of encounters along the southwest border was very similar in FY 2023 as in CY 2023 (being 3% higher in CY 2023), so this switch likely had little effect on the CBO estimates. Indeed, for the net increase in the number of illegal aliens, the CBO provides both FY 2023 and CY 2023 numbers, and they differ by just 0.1 million.

The vast majority of these roughly 10 million illegal aliens didn’t overstay their visas, per the CBO. Rather, they either evaded capture and escaped across the border or were released by the Biden administration into the country’s interior.

Released with no accountability

By far the biggest cohort was deliberately released. As U.S. District Judge T. Kent Wetherell wrote during a Biden-era case, U.S. Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz “testified that the current surge differs from prior surges that he [has] seen over his lengthy career in that most of the aliens now being encountered at the Southwest Border are turning themselves in to USBP officers rather than trying to escape the officers.”

Ortiz, whom the Biden administration selected as Border Patrol chief, said at the time that aliens are likely “turning themselves in because they think they’re going to be released.”

They were generally right. The CBO estimates that in 2024, Biden’s DHS released more than 1.5 million aliens into the U.S. — 570,000 were encountered along the open border and released, and another 960,000 were encountered at ports of entry along the border and released — while another estimated 800,000 escaped across the border.

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Photo by Jon Putman/Anadolu via Getty Images

In FY 2023, DHS released about 2 million aliens into the U.S. — 1.1 million of whom crossed the open border and were released, 900,000 of whom were released at ports of entry — while another estimated 860,000 escaped across the border. That’s a total of 5.2 million evasions or releases over two years (specifically over FY 2023 and CY 2024, the periods for which the Congressional Budget Office provides figures). During the same 24 months, 715,000 people overstayed their legal authorizations to be in the country, per CBO estimates.

In other words, about seven-eighths (5.2 million out of 5.9 million) of those who joined the ranks of illegal aliens over those two years either evaded capture or were released into the country, rather than overstaying their visas. Applying that same seven-eighths figure to 2021 and 2022 — when the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens was about 3.9 million — suggests that about 3.4 million illegal aliens evaded capture or were released over those two years. That brings the estimated four-year tally to about 8.6 million releases or evasions under Biden (5.2 million plus 3.4 million) — a number larger than the populations of 38 individual states.

A president-approved invasion

To sum up, about 10 million illegal aliens were added to the U.S. population during the Biden administration. Of those, about 8.6 million came across the southern border — usually being released but sometimes evading capture — rather than overstaying their visas. After accounting for illegal aliens who either left the country or became legalized, the result was a net increase of 7.1 million illegal aliens during the Biden years, per the CBO.

That net increase of 7.1 million illegal aliens equals about two-thirds of the overall net increase of 10.3 million (legal or illegal) immigrants during Joe Biden’s tenure. After four years of Biden, the foreign-born population now makes up a higher percentage of the overall U.S. population than at any time on record, including during the great waves of immigration in the 19th century.

But it’s not just how many but who came into the country that matters. During the three full fiscal years (FY 2018-2020) immediately preceding the Biden administration, there were a total of nine encounters along the open border between Border Patrol officials and noncitizens on the terrorist watch list. During the three full fiscal years (FY 2022-2024) that took place entirely during Biden’s term, there were 370 such encounters — a 41-fold increase. Across all four years of the Biden presidency, the number of such encounters was approximately 400. One can only wonder how many potential terrorists got across Biden’s porous border without being encountered.

On his first day in office, Biden issued an executive order prioritizing “equity.” His DHS soon quoted that order, made clear it would apply it “in the immigration and enforcement context,” and thereafter refused to enforce federal immigration law requiring the detention of asylum-seekers. Such “equity”-driven actions were, in the words of Judge Wetherell, “akin to posting a flashing ‘Come In, We’re Open’ sign on the southern border.”

As a result of that neon invitation, 7.1 million more illegal aliens entered the U.S. or overstayed their visas than left the U.S. or became legalized while Biden was in office — more than the combined populations of Los Angeles, D.C., Boston, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Miami. This was a deliberate result of Biden’s “equity” agenda, and Americans are paying the price.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics.

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It’s the oldest trick in Republicans' playbook: They campaign on cutting spending and shrinking government, but when it comes time to pass actual legislation, they increase spending instead. To distract from that reality, they point to “waste, fraud, and abuse.”

Listen closely to all the hype about the DOGE — the Elon Musk-inspired, unofficial Department of Government Efficiency — and you’ll find nobody proposing to eliminate or structurally reform any major programs. Instead, leaders are giving Americans the impression that we can solve our inflation and debt crisis by trimming foreign aid, selling vacant buildings, and slashing overpayments in programs where waste and fraud are features, not bugs. This time must be different.

Cute messaging about egregious wasteful spending, which offends no corporate or individual constituency, will not solve the current crisis.

On the upside, an unprecedented conservative media campaign, led by Musk, has spotlighted wasteful spending and the need for cuts. On the downside, despite all the social media buzz, no one has presented a serious plan to reduce, eliminate, or restructure the key programs driving deficits and inflation. In fact, in December's budget bill, Musk and Donald Trump backed an additional $110 billion in deficit spending without using any so-called wasteful programs as offsets.

Recycling the idea of cutting “waste, fraud, and abuse” — “no, really this time!” — might have worked before the $7 trillion COVID-19 debt bomb. But it won’t dent the $1.2 trillion in annual money printing needed to service the debt’s interest. Telling Americans we can achieve fiscal solvency simply by cutting painless waste, reducing foreign aid, or making government more “efficient” sets us up for failure.

The only way to curb inflation is to level with Americans about the real source of the problem: consensus spending by both parties, not the “waste, fraud, and abuse” they keep blaming. Either we cut those programs or accept inflation — no middle ground. The silver lining is that inflation’s bite has created a mandate to make a trade-off: We can end dependency on certain programs if we muster the political will.

We don’t need an AI tool or a latter-day Manhattan Project to figure out how to balance the budget. We already know what must be done; the challenge lies in devising the right messaging and political will to enact it.

The federal budget isn’t a mystery. According to the Congressional Budget Office, fiscal year 2025 will bring another $2 trillion deficit, with $7 trillion in spending and $5 trillion in revenue — and that’s before factoring in any expansion of Donald Trump’s first-term tax cuts. The CBO projects $1.1 trillion in interest on the debt, but those figures have repeatedly been revised upward.

The 10-year outlook appears even bleaker, especially once we factor in the CBO’s unrealistic revenue projections, its consistent underestimates of spending, and its failure to account for major catastrophes — such as COVID-19, the Great Recession, or annual weather disasters — that always push deficits beyond expectations. For example, while the CBO estimates the $7 trillion budget will only rise to $10.3 trillion by the end of the 10-year window, our spending has already doubled over the past decade, largely because of COVID-19.

What, then, drives our $7 trillion budget for fiscal 2025? Let’s break down the major government expenditures.

The “untouchables” of our budget make up the overwhelming majority of the tab. Social Security, Medicare, military, and veterans’ programs (both discretionary and mandatory), plus interest on the debt, total more than $5.2 trillion of the $7 trillion budget. Several hundred billion dollars of Medicare is offset by user premiums, bringing the net “untouchable” spending closer to $5 trillion. Yes, one could shave off some Pentagon waste and address Social Security and Medicare overpayments, but tightening eligibility would spark a political backlash that Trump may not want.

No hidden stockpile of “waste, fraud, and abuse” exists to eliminate. The only way to lower the deficit is to target the remaining $2 trillion, which includes discretionary spending and nonuniversal entitlement programs such as Medicaid, food stamps, and housing.

Republicans will also need to devolve education, agriculture, transportation, and energy spending to the states. They must eliminate housing subsidies and mortgage giants like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. In other words, they must convince the American people that the choice is between dependency programs or permanent stagflation and unaffordability. Cute messaging about egregious wasteful spending, which offends no corporate or individual constituency, will not solve our current crisis. Honesty remains the only viable path forward.

Republicans should craft their reconciliation bill to fully repeal the Green New Deal and all climate regulations, reset discretionary spending to pre-COVID-19 levels, and enact welfare reform stronger than the 1996 measure. Some commentators falsely claim Social Security and Medicare are the only paths to reducing deficits, neglecting the many “other mandatory spending” programs that are not universal. Coupled with substantial health care reforms to lower consumer costs, this approach offers the only realistic way to address inflation.

Congress cannot focus solely on tax cuts this time. Yes, lawmakers should extend the 2017 tax cuts and add targeted cuts to spur small-business growth, but unlike in 2017, the primary emphasis should be on curbing government spending. A frank discussion about the true nature of these expenditures is essential to meet the mandate of lowering inflation at long last.

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