Counting on chaos: How census miscounts could decide 2024



What if Donald Trump narrowly loses the election due to an unnoticed form of election fraud, later confirmed by U.S. Census data? What if Republicans saw this fraud coming but took no action and haven’t even held hearings to address it?

With Ohio and Florida solidly Republican this generation, Democrats have based their electoral strategy on the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Signs show that migration trends and demographic shifts may have bolstered Republican positions in Sun Belt swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.

In a closely divided nation, acts of misconduct — and the GOP’s lack of a long-term strategy to counter them — will shape the course of history.

If Democrats retain the blue wall, Trump would still have 268 electoral votes — just one short of a potential win through a congressional vote. This outcome remains a real possibility. However, what if the states that Trump would likely win, based on clear population data, should actually yield more than 270 votes, even without a single Rust Belt swing state?

The Constitution mandates a census every 10 years to determine each state’s congressional representation. Article II, Section 1, Clause 2, then ties the Electoral College to that state’s congressional delegation based on census reapportionment. But if the census inflated blue state numbers and deflated red state numbers in a closely divided country, it could change the balance of power in Congress and potentially determine the next president.

Based on the census report used for reapportionment, which estimated the population as of April 1, 2020, Texas gained two congressional seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one. Meanwhile, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost a congressional seat, reducing their electoral votes for president. Although this shift benefited Republicans overall, many believed it still didn’t capture the massive migration from blue states to red states, especially in the Sun Belt.

In a bombshell 2022 report that should have sparked a fierce congressional debate, the Census Bureau admitted to overcounting in eight states and undercounting in six by unprecedented error margins. Five of the six undercounted states were red, and six of the eight overcounted states were blue, with the largest errors affecting red states on both sides. Here are the error rates:

  • Undercounted states
    Arkansas (-5.04%), Florida (-3.48%), Illinois (-1.97%), Mississippi (-4.11%), Tennessee (-4.78%), Texas (-1.92%)
  • Overcounted states
    Delaware (+5.45%), Hawaii (+6.79%), Massachusetts (+2.24%), Minnesota (+3.84%), New York (+3.44%), Ohio (+1.49%), Rhode Island (+5.05%), Utah (+2.59%)

In raw population terms, the largest errors disadvantaged red states and favored blue states:

  1. Florida (-761,094)
  2. Texas (-560,319)
  3. Tennessee (-330,628)

What was the result of these errors? As Hans von Spakovsky from the Heritage Foundation noted, “Due to these errors, Florida did not receive two additional congressional seats, Texas lost out on one seat, while Minnesota and Rhode Island each retained a seat they should have lost, and Colorado gained an undeserved new seat.”

It’s hard to predict how an accurate count would have affected congressional district boundaries, making it difficult to assess the partisan control of Congress. However, in the Electoral College, if Trump wins the Sun Belt swing states and Harris carries the Rust Belt swing states, instead of Trump losing 270-268, he would win 271-267. The data shows Trump could win with just the Sun Belt. And House control could hinge on a few districts that may have been distorted by Biden’s erroneous census certification.

Why didn’t Republicans hold hearings to investigate this error? In the previous census, there was an overcount of only 36,000 people nationwide, a negligible 0.01% that didn’t affect any state’s reapportionment. Doesn’t anyone want to understand the cause of such a significant error, especially one so favorable to Democrats?

While options for redress in 2022 were limited, Republicans had two years before the next presidential election to challenge the Biden administration’s decision. The apportionment clause grants Congress the authority to direct the census “in such manner as they shall by law direct.”

With control of Congress in 2023, House Republicans could have held hearings to clarify the correct apportionment and added legislation to budget bills mandating a compromise between the original numbers and the revised count starting in 2024.

Though a legal battle would likely follow, the Supreme Court ruled in Utah v. Evans (2002) that the census clause doesn’t forbid using statistical methods to enhance accuracy beyond a direct count.

This error isn’t the only factor giving Democrats an artificial advantage. Even before the recent surge in illegal immigration, estimates suggested California held an extra five seats in the House due to its population of illegal aliens. When Trump tried to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census count, the courts blocked his efforts. But when Biden’s inaccurate count favored blue states, officials claimed there was no legal recourse.

It’s disheartening and ironic to reflect on our founding and see how the framers believed the census would be one of the least politicized issues. In Federalist No. 36, Alexander Hamilton wrote, “An actual census or enumeration of the people must furnish the rule, a circumstance which effectually shuts the door to partiality or oppression.”

Today, self-evident truths are often distorted, making it easy for the government to manipulate data with bias and unfairness. In a closely divided nation, these acts of misconduct — and the GOP’s lack of a long-term strategy to counter them — will shape the course of history.

Census Data Shows Americans Haven’t Gotten A Pay Raise Since Trump Was President

Lower incomes, higher inflation, and fewer people with private health insurance — such is life under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

Biden administration changes race, ethnicity options on census and other federal surveys



The White House's Office of Management and Budget, currently in the hands of the Biden administration, has announced that significant changes have been made to questions related to race and ethnicity on most standard federal surveys and questionnaires, including the U.S. census. These are the first such changes to be made in nearly 30 years.

The first major change is that race and ethnicity, which had been addressed in separate questions, will now be conflated, though respondents may still select multiple options. One purpose for this change, the AP reported, is to simplify the process for Hispanic people. The AP claimed that people of Hispanic heritage often "aren't sure how to answer the race question" and as a result either select "some other race" or leave the question blank.

There will also be a new racial category added to the mix. Since 1997, the U.S. has recognized five minimum racial categories: American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Black or African American, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, and white. Now, respondents will have the additional option of selecting Middle Eastern and North African.

Those in charge of creating surveys should also consider breaking several racial categories down even further, the OMB said. For instance, the office suggested, some who select the category "black" might more specifically identify as Haitian or Jamaican.

Finally, the OMB has eliminated the following terms from federal surveys and questionnaires because they are either offensive or inadequate: Negro, Far East, majority, and minority.

Many on the left are celebrating these new changes, which — according to the AP — were made over the last two years by "a group of federal statisticians and bureaucrats who prefer to stay above the political fray."

"It feels good to be seen," said Democrat state Rep. Anna Eskamani of Florida, whose parents were born in Iran. "Growing up, my family would check the 'white' box because we didn’t know what other box reflected our family. Having representation like that, it feels meaningful."

"You can’t underestimate the emotional impact this has on people," added Meeta Anand, senior director for Census and Data Equity at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights. "You are seeing a desire for people to want to self-identify and be reflected in data so they can tell their own stories."

However, the AP's reporting also notes that the new changes, which will greatly reduce the number of people considered white, will likely have political consequences in terms of congressional districts and the understanding and enforcement of civil rights laws.

Others have some reservations because they believe the Middle Eastern and North African category still isn't inclusive enough. "It is not reflective of the racial diversity of our community," said Maya Berry, executive director of the Arab American Institute. "And it’s wrong."

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'Most Americans are still unaware': Musk notes that illegal immigrant population impacts number of House seats each state has



Business tycoon Elon Musk highlighted that the illegal immigrant population in each state counts toward determining the number of seats the state has in the U.S. House of Representatives.

"Most Americans are still unaware that the census counts ALL people, including illegal immigrants, for deciding how many House seats each state gets! This results in Dem states getting roughly 20 more House seats, which is another strong incentive for them not to deport illegals," Musk tweeted.

— (@)

GOP Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky responded to Musk, pointing that this in turn has an impact on the number of electoral votes each state has in presidential elections.

"And House seats determine how many votes each state has in the electoral college. So although illegal aliens don't vote, they can determine the outcome of Presidential races. Kentucky has 6 representatives, but California likely has 6 extra seats due to illegal immigration!" Massie wrote.

"Exactly," Musk responded.

The number of electoral votes each state gets in a presidential election is equal to the number of House and Senate seats the state has.

— (@)

The U.S. Census Bureau explains that, "Apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 memberships, or seats, in the U.S. House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the apportionment population counts from the decennial census."

"The apportionment population count for each of the 50 states includes the state's total resident population plus a count of the overseas federal employees (and their dependents living with them overseas) who have that state listed as their home state in their employers' administrative records," the Census Bureau notes.

Regarding whether "unauthorized immigrants" factor in to the resident population counts, the Census Bureau notes, "Yes, all people (citizens and noncitizens) with a usual residence in the United States are included in the resident population for the census."

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Biden’s Border Invasion Will Bolster Democrats’ Electoral College Majority

Democrats don't care about public safety. They only care about securing more Electoral College votes and amassing power.

How Illegal Aliens Flooding Our Border Skew Elections For Democrats Without Ever Casting A Vote

Millions of illegal immigrants, many of whom are in large, left-leaning cities, dilute the voting power of American citizens.

Over 59% of illegal alien households rely on taxpayer-funded welfare: Study



The majority of illegal alien- and immigrant-run households are reliant upon taxpayer-funded welfare, according to a new study.

The Center for Immigration Studies scrutinized U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2022 Survey of Income and Program Participation, finding that non-citizens are far more likely than Americans to make extensive use of means-tested anti-poverty programs.

The study, published Tuesday, found that 54% of households headed by immigrants, including naturalized citizens, legal residents, and illegal aliens, used one or more major welfare program. By way of comparison, only 39% of U.S.-born households similarly relied on food programs, housing programs, Medicaid, and/or the dole.

Even when free school meals and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children were not factored in, the researchers found that 46% of immigrant households drew welfare versus 33% of U.S.-born households who relied on such support.

An estimated 59.4% of households headed by illegal aliens drew on at least one major taxpayer-funded welfare support. As a cohort, those who stole illegally into the nation reportedly use every program at "statistically significant higher rates than the U.S.-born, except for [Supplemental Security Income], [Temporary Assistance for Needy Families], and housing."

The study indicated that 48% of "illegal-headed households" used food welfare programs; 39% relied on Medicaid; 18% relied on cash welfare; and 4% relied on housing programs.

The CIS researchers suggested that the "ability of immigrant, including illegal immigrants, to receive welfare benefits on behalf of U.S.-born citizen children is a key reason why restrictions on welfare use for new legal immigrants and illegal immigrants are relatively ineffective."

According to the CIS, it is difficult to nail down precisely why immigrant households are more likely than U.S.-born households to collect welfare, given that "83 percent of all immigrant households and 94 percent of illegal-headed households have at least one worker." Children and educational attainment similarly don't appear to be major factors, as childless immigrant households and those with college degrees also tend to use welfare more than their U.S.-born counterparts.

When discussing how best to interpret the data, the researchers noted that "traditionally, one of the most important arguments for immigration is that it benefits the United States — that is, the existing population of Americans. From this perspective, it is certainly reasonable to argue that with the exception of the roughly 6 percent of the total immigrant population who were admitted for humanitarian reasons (e.g. refugees and asylees), immigrant welfare use should be very low."

They further noted that the flood of millions of illegal aliens into the nation since President Joe Biden took office "has profound implications for public coffers," especially since "a large share of those released into the country have been granted parole," meaning they enjoy the same welfare eligibility as new permanent legal immigrants.

The CIS indicated in a previous report that the total foreign-born population, both legal and illegal, increased by 4.5 million since January 2021, reaching over 49.5 million in October 2023. That amounts to a record-high 15% of the U.S. population and exceeds the individual populations of 25 U.S. states. If the welfare statistics hold for this growing population, then illegal immigration will continue to exact an increasingly heavy price from the taxpaying citizenry.

The House Committee on Homeland Security noted in its Nov. 13 interim report on the "Historic Dollar Costs of DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas' Open-Border Policies" that "for every one million parolees released into the United States on Mayorkas' watch, the cost in federal welfare benefits that will be incurred could total $3 billion annually, with those costs starting to kick in January 2026."

The congressional report echoed a CIS estimate that put the yearly cost of housing known gotaways and illegal aliens who have been released into the U.S. under Biden's watch at $451 billion.

This estimate was based, in part, on a RealClearInvestigations assessment that put the yearly per-person cost imposed on New York City by migrants at $393.70 per day. Multiplied by the over 3.1 million migrants released under Biden as of mid-March, the costs came out to over $1.2 billion a day or $451.05 billion per annum.

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More Than 75,000 People Left California This Year, Census Estimates Show

More than 75,000 people left California this year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's latest population estimates, as the Golden State exodus continues.

The post More Than 75,000 People Left California This Year, Census Estimates Show appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

US household incomes have fallen precipitously under Biden, down 2.3% from 2021



The U.S. Census Bureau revealed Tuesday that American household incomes have dropped for a third consecutive year amid decades-high inflation and dwindling purchasing power.

The bureau's new report, "Income in the United States: 2022," indicated that real median household income after taxes fell 8.8% over the first two years that President Joe Biden was in office, while Democrats still controlled Congress.

During the same period, the poverty rate after taxes skyrocketed from 7.8% to 12.4%, and a significant number of Americans slid into the lowest quintile of earners. Over 37.9 million souls are presently living in poverty.

"We saw big increases in poverty across every sociodemographic group," Luke Shaefer, a public policy professor at the University of Michigan, told Marketplace. "The biggest was among children. We saw child poverty more than double."

The report further revealed that before taxes, median household income dropped last year by 2.3% to $74,580, $1,750 less than the median in 2021. That accounts for a 4.7% fall from where it stood in 2019, just prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, China.

These estimates are inflation-adjusted.

The report indicated that Boomers and older generations were largely unscathed by the drop, whereas householders under 65 saw a decline in median household income of 1.4% from 2021.

From 2021 to 2022, non-Hispanic white householders saw a 3.6% decline in median household income, while black householders and Hispanic householders saw a 1.5% and 0.5% increase, respectively.

Although all regions saw a drop, the Midwest was most adversely impacted, with a 4.7% decline.

The Census Bureau claimed that this worsening state of affairs "can be attributed to key changes in federal tax policy," specifically the lapsing of the Biden administration's pandemic policies like Economic Impact Payments, which helped drum up inflation in concert with supply chain disruptions and rising energy costs.

Biden rushed to blame congressional Republicans Tuesday for the results detailed in the bureau's latest reports, even though Democrats controlled the House during the years in question.

"The rise reported today in child poverty is no accident," Biden was quoted as saying in a statement. "It is the result of a deliberate policy choice congressional Republicans made to block help for families with children while advancing massive tax cuts for the wealthiest and largest corporations."

Despite the bleakness of the bureau's report, Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, told the Wall Street Journal there is cause for hope.

"Shifting into the present and into the future, the prospects are better for wages to make up for some of the ground lost during the last couple of years," said Adams.

As of December 2022, wage growth began to overtake inflation and inflation-adjusted wages reportedly rose by roughly 3% in July, according to data from the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker and the U.S. Labor Department.

Inflation, while a remaining problem, appears to have slowed somewhat in 2023, going from an annual rate of over 9% last summer to roughly 3% in July.

Notwithstanding the optimism of some forecasters, others fear the president's "Bidenomics" will compound Americans' suffering under his watch.

Milton Ezrati, writing for Forbes, recently cast doubt on whether Biden's proposed "watered-down version of China's Marxist, centrally planned approach to economic organization" will turn out to be anything other than a disaster.

Ezrati is not the only one doubting Biden's capabilities as it pertains to handling economy.

A recent Quinnipiac Poll revealed the majority of Americans think the nation's economy is getting worse, and 58% of registered voters polled disapproved of the job he was doing on the economy.

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Leftist Invaders Will Soon Be In Your Corner Of Red America — If They Haven’t Colonized It Already

Flyover country now seems to be a special project for left-wing power elites who would like to spread their agendas and homogenize every small corner of the nation.