Horowitz: Sweden riding high and the triumph of the rational herd immunity approach

After avoiding the man-made plague of lockdown and national emotional abuse, Sweden most certainly is languishing from the original plague of the virus itself, right? Well, on Tuesday, there were ZERO deaths in the country that eschewed arbitrary and heavy-handed restrictions on liberty and declined to compel mask-wearing. As a bonus, it turns out the Swedish economy is humming and its companies are reporting good earnings. Trusting in God, trusting in your people, and following rational thinking and science go a long way.

On Tuesday, Sweden reported 0 deaths and just 77 cases. Over the past week, deaths have been no higher than two per day. What is so remarkable is that while there are other countries that have had near-zero deaths for even longer, Sweden has achieved this through herd immunity; prevented the lockdown deaths, emotional abuse, drug deaths, suicides, and financial ruin plaguing other countries; and – most importantly – is more fortified against a resurgence than these other countries that delayed herd immunity.

We are now seeing a resurgence in many countries that were thought to have skated through this with minimal exposure, such as Japan, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Germany, Australia, and Israel. The hallmark of all these countries is that they have had strict mask-wearing regimens for months.

Lothar Wieler, head of Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI), said on Monday that he is “very concerned" that Germany is “in the middle of a rapidly developing pandemic." He asserted that people have become "negligent" and urged people to wear masks among the rest of the litany of magic social behavior.

The big problem with his assertion? Germany already has a high level of compliance.

The much-vaunted Imperial College of London conducted a survey from June 22 to June 28 of selected countries on public mask compliance. The results are startling:

Countries in Asia that have really high levels of compliance are experiencing sharp spikes in cases. Mexico is still going through its peak with near universal mask-wearing. As you can see, Germany has even more compliance than the U.S. and has a much smaller group of virulent opponents who “never” wear masks. The only countries with high compliance that have not yet seen a resurgence are those that have already gotten hit hard and may already have achieved herd immunity, such as Italy.

Except there is another country that is not seeing a resurgence because it likely also achieved herd immunity. Sweden! 86% say they “never” wear masks. The difference is that Sweden achieved that immunity with far fewer deaths than Italy and without all of the unfathomable collateral damage of lockdowns.

America is no different from many of these other countries. As this New York Times map shows, there is a high degree of mask compliance in all the hot-spot areas.

Los Angeles has been masking up for months.

Here is south Florida’s mask compliance rate:

Now here is the American southwest:

Notice a pattern?

Now take a look at Wisconsin’s rate of compliance. Wisconsin’s supreme court tossed out the entire emergency order over two months ago.

The result is that Wisconsin has had a flat curve for months.

This is not to say that every place without the mandates will do just as well and every place with them will have poor results. But what this demonstrates over and over again is that these voodoo superstitious rituals do not help stop a virus that is bound to spread. Instead, they forestall herd immunity, and they cause an enormous amount of collateral damage and gross violations of civil rights.

Back in Europe, it looks like Sweden is going to get the last laugh by avoiding a second wave after experiencing only a very mild first wave outside nursing homes.

Sweden’s chief epidemiologist now believes his country has achieved herd immunity, and it has done so with relatively few excess deaths, as compared to other years. But where they really come out ahead of every other country, on net, is the fact that their lives and economy are intact. Every day for the past two weeks, Swedish companies have been beating expectations for earnings in the second quarter of this year. Contrast that to the U.S., where more than half the 132,500 business closures are now marked as permanent.

This is not just about money. Best estimates from U.S. government economic impact calculators project one life lost from suicide, alcohol or drug abuse, or stress-induced illnesses per $17 million lost. One study has estimated that 65,000 lives are lost per month of lockdown in the U.S. – corresponding to an estimated $1.1 trillion in lost economic activity. Sweden, on the other hand, avoided this calamity.

After all this, we have nothing to show for the tyranny but endless business closures, permanent loss of liberty, and a generation of traumatized children. As my friend and talk show host John Ziegler pointed out, this is like a scene out of “The Crown” on Netflix: “Masks are bloody useless; they’re just for show to make it look like the government’s doing something.”

Horowitz: Comparing Europe to the US, the evidence is clear: Lockdowns don't work

Here’s the good news for opponents of lockdowns and mask mandates: They don’t work. However, that is also the bad news. Because they don’t work, politicians who have seized power by executive fiat for months on end can continue promulgating even more life-altering rules, precisely because the original ones never worked!

Americans are now facing this predicament: The more the effectiveness of these executive policies is disproven, the more the politicians use that lack of results as a pretext for even more rules. Thus, if stay-at-home orders failed to work as promised, they demand mask-wearing. If mask-wearing was in place for months and still didn’t work, which has been the case in most hot spots, then they mandate mask-wearing in personal homes in Broward County, Florida, and for two-year-olds in Baltimore County, Maryland. Because you know, the only possible explanation for continued spread of a virus that is not deadly for most people is that two-year-olds weren’t wearing masks. Never mind studies from nearly every major European country showing kids, particularly young kids, do not contribute to community spread, even if masks did work.

Speaking of European countries, it’s time to dispel one of the more popular myths propagated by our new dictators. We are constantly being lectured to by the “experts” that America didn’t have enough of a lockdown and that is the reason why we are still seeing a spread of the virus while Europe seems to be done with it. A new eye-opening analysis from the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) shows that America had just as severe a lockdown as most European countries and in fact had a longer-lasting lockdown than every country except for England.

The accusation that America didn’t lock down enough is based on three premises – that we locked down later than Europe, didn’t lock down as hard, and reopened earlier. As Phillip Magness of AIER proves using the University of Oxford’s stringency index of lockdowns, all three are untrue.

Using a scale of 1-100, Oxford researchers gave one point to each country for a list of 17 policies that they implemented during the epidemic and tracked that aggregate score over time.

Here is America’s score:

As you can see, after achieving a 72.69 score on March 21, we have essentially plateaued for months. The reality is that most of America, including many states with surges in cases, have been locked down the entire time and remain essentially locked down.

As Magness observes, the U.S. was well within the median of Europe’s score:

At its peak, the US stringency index reached comparable levels with Great Britain (75.93), Belgium (81.48), the Netherlands (79.63), Germany (73.15), Norway (79.63), Denmark (72.22) and Switzerland (73.15). Among comparable developed nations, only Italy, France, and Ireland topped the 90 point mark on the index.

What about the start time? Was America late to the party relative to the European countries?

Of these countries, almost all imposed their most stringent policies at exactly the same time – the week surrounding the March 16th release of the Imperial College report, which also corresponded with the World Health Organization’s pandemic declaration on March 11th. Only Italy – an early hotspot – preceded this wave of lockdowns, having imposed them in late February.

Thus, America started when everyone else did – except for Italy – and achieved essentially the same lockdown score within a week.

But here’s the real kicker: the myth of the great American reopening. Not only did the reopening in most places in the U.S. not begin before most European countries, but the reopening in Europe has been much more encompassing to this very day.

As of July 4th and even with slow reopenings underway in most states, the stringency index shows that the United States (68.89) as a whole still remained under heavier restrictions than any country in Western Europe except for the comparably-shuttered United Kingdom (69.91).

Hence, after causing so much collateral damage, lockdowns don’t even work to stop the spread! America is locked down and has been the entire time.

Take Switzerland, for example. It opened up much earlier than the U.S. and is now at a 36.57 index, almost half that of the U.S.

The results? A flatlining of cases:

Then, of course, there is Sweden, which never achieved more than a 46 index.

The results? Sweden is essentially done with the virus.

In America, the virus continues to spread, despite a much more severe lockdown than Sweden and a much longer one than nearly every European country.

Even the few states that opened up in late April or early May are clearly not responsible for the spread, because the virus did not spread during the key weeks following the reopening. The timing of the spread in southern states is much more in line with the rioting and protests, which would explain why we had a resurgence that Europe, thus far, has not seen on a large scale.

Also, let’s not forget that most states that reopened still had very strict rules in the urban areas that have seen most of the new cases, such as Miami-Dade County. Both Miami and Los Angeles have seen a surge in cases following long-standing mask requirements:

On the other hand, Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland, Switzerland, Belarus, Norway, and France never had compulsory mask rules, and yet they appear to be done with the epidemic, at least for now. Whereas countries in Asia with near universal mask-wearing, such as Hong Kong and the Philippines, are seeing new waves of the virus.

The only state to truly reopen early on in May and without mask mandates was Wisconsin, when the state Supreme Court tossed out the entire emergency declaration of the governor. Yet Wisconsin’s numbers are more in line with the best countries in Europe. Wisconsin has 148 deaths per million, one-third the national average, lower than the rate of Switzerland and almost as low as Germany's death rate. Contrast that to California, which has been one of the worst hot-spot states, even though it had the earliest and one of the most severe lockdowns and never got past a stage two reopening.

It is now settled fact that lockdowns and mask mandates have no effect on the spread of a respiratory virus. Why America has seen this drag out longer than Europe is still unclear, but one cannot possibly argue it’s because of a lack of lockdowns, tardy lockdowns, or early reopenings.

On the other hand, we now know with certainty that the border played a substantial role in the resurgence in some border states, and it’s very likely the rioting spread the virus among younger people in the rest of the country. Also, in many states, like Florida and North Carolina, nearly half of the cases are among Hispanics.

Yet the very politicians who encouraged cross-border travel, allowed the continued importation of H-2A agriculture workers in bad labor conditions for their big agriculture donors, and exalted a movement of 26 million people taking to the streets in the most crowded riots we’ve seen in modern history, now have the nerve to blame us for the spread. When is it our time to riot?

Horowitz: The media’s coronavirus con: Would you rather be Florida/Texas or NY/NJ?

According to Gallup, 65 percent of U.S. adults believe the coronavirus situation is getting worse. On the bright side, given the unanimity of opinion embedded in the incessant media coverage playing on panic and fear – the worst human emotions – it’s surprising that number is not closer to 100 percent. On the downside, the media is driving politicians to destroy this country based on a demonstrable lie.

From listening to the mindless tropes from fact-free media headlines, one would think that all the Southern states are now at least as bad as New York was in March, if not worse; that the virus is intensifying; that it’s all taking place in states that didn’t lock down properly or long enough; and that the virus re-emerged because lockdowns were lifted, despite the funny timing of this “surge.” As such, only indefinite lockdowns can save us.

In fact, most of the surge is superficial and illusory, built on numerous accounting gimmicks. In addition, the virus is weakening more than ever; even the worst states are better than New York was; the superficial surge affects the states that were never hard-hit – both lockdown and non-lockdown states alike; the timing does not coincide with the reopening but with other factors; and the biggest factors driving it – border medical tourism, illegal alien agriculture workers, and possibly rioters – are completely ignored by the same people who are screaming “Coronavirus!” in a crowded theater.

For now, let’s focus on the myth that the recent surge states are anywhere near as bad as what occurred in the Northeast in March/April, an assertion that is perpetuating the myth that the virus is somehow getting worse.

If you are willing to ignore the superficial factors of increased testing and changes in counting methodology, all but the Northeast and several other states are experiencing an increase in cases, not just the South and not just states that reopened early. However, this is not a massive surge. Here is a presentation of what the trend line of cases would look like had we been doing this amount of testing all along.

There is a little community spread, as I’ve theorized in the past, due to Mexican border travel, migrant workers traveling from state to state during crop-picking season, and very likely from the estimated 26 million protesters. We’re not seeing the effects in the Northeast. But ask yourself this question: Would you rather have been a Northeastern state in April or in a recent “surge” state?

The reason why the Northeast is pretty much done with the virus was not born out of something positive. They likely achieved de facto herd immunity only after experiencing a lot of deaths. What the other states are experiencing is a true flat curve – it lasts longer but results in many fewer deaths, especially now that they are experiencing the cases when the virus has become milder and targets healthier people. The media is making it seem like the Northeast is good and the South and West are bad. Let’s take a look at the two groups of states – surge and non-surge – and ask yourselves which group you would you rather be in.

Here are easy-to-read charts courtesy of a brilliant mathmetician I’ve gotten to know in recent days. The first chart is the trend line of the non-surge states, mainly in the Northeast. Take a look at how high the scale of deaths is.

Now look at the “surge” states over which the media is panicking:

Which one achieved more of the original goal – to live through the virus with a flatter curve? The answer is obvious to anyone who is intellectually honest.

Now let’s put the two together – the original Northeastern states vs. the current “surge” states:

Which group of states would you rather be? The blue group, which experienced their cases when the virus was more deadly and with governors who killed people in nursing homes? Or the states that are experiencing a later, milder hit?

Here is a remarkable presentation of the panicked surge in cases, completely divorced from an epidemic of fatalities:

During the first wave, New York was the biggest hot spot. Now, Arizona is considered the biggest hot spot. But if you are looking to equate the two, you will be disappointed. Which state would you rather be?

Now examine this presentation of New York cases and deaths vs. cases and deaths from California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida. Look at all the cases those four states have and how few deaths they are suffering.

I guess the media thinks that the Northeastern states flattened the curve. Well, having everyone who is vulnerable to the virus die in nursing homes is one tragic way of flattening that curve! Take a look at this shocking comparison of the six states that placed COVID-positive patients into nursing homes to the other 44 states.

If you lump together the other 44 states, what you basically get is a flat curve – where we only experienced epidemic levels of death for six weeks, and not by much. Thus, the entire epidemic – over and beyond a typical bad flu season – essentially boils down to a case of panic pornography that led six state governors to cause the very results they sought to avoid and likely would have avoided had they responded rationally.

And no, Florida doesn’t need any advice from these governors:

Thus far, Florida has not even reached the level of excess deaths that occurred during the 2018 flu season, according to the CDC.

And here is what Texas looks like as compared to the 2018 flu season, even while importing some of Mexico’s serious cases.

Thus, if the lockdown states in the Northeast and their defenders in the media are trying to give advice to the others, a polite but firm “no thank you” would be in order.