Complacency is killing the GOP — and Democrats are seizing the moment
The party’s over.
I hate being the bearer of bad news, but despite our historic victory this past November, the right hasn’t won the battle for America’s soul — not even close.
Republicans think Americans voted for right-wing philosophy, when in reality, they voted for Donald J. Trump. The two are not the same.
I get it — it’s been fun to be a Republican since November. The problem is, we’ve been so busy running victory lap after victory lap that now the left might lap us.
A warning from Pennsylvania
Just look at what happened this Tuesday, when Democrat James Malone won Pennsylvania’s 36th Senate District by a razor-thin margin. Just for context, this is a district that President Donald Trump won by 15 points in 2024 and whose electorate tilts Republican by 23 points. The last Republican to hold it ran unopposed. In short, it shouldn’t even have been close.
And yet the Democrat won, which raises a much more uncomfortable question, not just about this race but about the entire Republican strategy for 2026: How could this happen?
To me, the reason is clear. They won because we didn’t show up. Why didn’t we show up? We were lulled into a false sense of security by the crushing victory of 2024. And yes, Trump’s use of the full machinery of the state to strip away the left’s entrenched power — along with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency chewing through federal fat — makes it hard not to feel a bit giddy, even invincible. But while overconfidence breeds vulnerability, I don’t think that’s the real issue.
Trump won 2024, not ‘conservatism’
The real issue is that Republicans think Americans voted for right-wing philosophy, when in reality, they actually voted for Donald J. Trump. Whether you like it or not, Trump had an advantage that virtually no other Republican has: Everyone knew he was the living embodiment of a political approach that elites in bothparties had tried to stop. And what’s more, he was up against possibly the perfect candidate — or really, candidates — to personify what everyday Americans hatedabout those very elites. Plus, there truly is no one like Trump. It is only because so many people showed up to vote against those people — and for him — that they also pulled the lever for a Republican.
But most Democrats are not as bad as former Vice President Kamala Harris. And most Republicans, I’m sorry to say, are not Trump. In fact, most Republicans seem to have taken the exact wrong lesson from Trump’s victory. They’ve treated it as a vindication of conservatism. It wasn’t. Trump is not a movement conservative, and most Americans aren’t either.
Unfortunately, many GOP politicians still resemble the conservative brand of old. Worse, many have tried to use Trump’s “America First” agenda as a fig leaf for unpopular past stances and discredited old ideologies. This loud group has nothing to do with “America First,” and they’re making us look bad to normal Americans — precisely at the moment when everyone from Gavin Newsom to Bernie Sanders is falling all over themselves to try to appear “normal.” Americans voted for Trump to stop the ideological madness, not to invert it.
Time to wake up
But MAGA stands for more than that. We know it. Trump knows it. The real issue, as Trump himself often says, is that we’re not used to winning this much. And because of that, we’ve grown too comfortable. We’ve started coasting, assuming success will continue without effort.
We forget that many of our victories have come simply because voters oppose the radical left. As Mike Solana recently told Megyn Kelly, “We’ve decided what we don’t want to look like.” But rejection alone isn’t a strategy. If the opposition doesn’t implode, we have to give voters something to support — something real, clear, and positive. That requires more than deciding what we stand for; it requires showing it in everything we do.
Whatever that vision is, we need to define it now — and act on it — because time is running out.
We already lost a state Senate seat in a swing-state district with a Republican advantage of 23 points. If that can happen there, it can happen anywhere. The upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a toss-up, and we cannot afford another defeat.
Yes, both the MAGA movement and Elon Musk have done more to nationalize the Wisconsin court race than they did with Pennsylvania’s 36th Senate district. But we can’t rely on billionaires or once-in-a-generation political talent.
The right must build a political machine that works — whether we’re in power or not. Democrats have one. They’re using it. And they’re not slowing down.
We shouldn’t either.
Black conservatives are the ‘tragic mulattos’ of American politics
Ben Shapiro’s recent video arguing President Trump should pardon Derek Chauvin elicited passionate responses on social media. Some conservative commentators thought it was a bad idea that would cost the president precious political capital. Others believed Trump should do it despite the guaranteed outrage it would incite on the left.
For black conservatism to survive, it must aspire to more than just policing the excesses of the progressive left or the fringe right.
The response from Xaviaer DuRousseau, in particular, caught my attention because the popular influencer and commentator jokingly raised an issue that a particular subset of conservatives rarely expresses openly.
Being a black conservative and maintaining your cookout credentials is getting soooo hard.
He ended his post with four crying emojis that made his point crystal clear: Issues that are racially coded and politically charged are hard for black conservatives to navigate.
A unique challenge
Many black conservatives experience this identity crisis — one characterized far more by the “tragic mulatto” trope from 19th- and 20th-century literature than the “Uncle Tom” epithet that is synonymous with racial self-hatred. The tragic mulatto stereotype arose in a culture governed by racial hierarchy. It was associated with mixed-race people who struggled with feelings of alienation in a world that did not accept them as either wholly black or white.
Black liberals are quick to label their conservative brethren “sellouts” for rejecting progressive politics. White liberals, likewise, have no problem questioning the racial bona fides of blacks who don’t vote for Democrats. A growing chorus of white conservatives also blame Martin Luther King Jr. and the civil rights movement for diversity, equity, and inclusion, as well as Black Lives Matter, critical race theory, and LGBT radicalism.
Black conservatism, in many ways, faces a unique challenge. It exists as a racial subgenre within a broader political movement that has traditionally emphasized color blindness and minimized the impact of racism on the current outcomes of black Americans. The only notable exceptions occur when accusations of bias and discrimination are directed at white liberals or at failed progressive policies.
Anyone paying attention to conservative public discourse in the age of social media, however, can see that the right’s approach to race is rapidly evolving. Conservative commentators are increasingly vocal about what they view as anti-white bias in criminal prosecutions, professional sports, media representation, and the job market. This emerging race consciousness is evident in heated online debates about American identity and culture. It also serves as an underlying theme in policy fights over immigration.
A new generation of ‘reconstructionists’
Race is the most visible source of the black conservative identity crisis, but the movement’s mission is equally important to its long-term survival. Today, the most visible black conservatives in America seem focused on increasing Republican representation in politics and growing their brands as right-wing commentators.
The conservative ecosystem certainly makes room for political operatives and culture warriors. But when black conservatism focuses primarily on boosting voter turnout and participation in elections, it fails to fulfill its core mission.
Donald Trump maintained roughly the same support from black voters as in 2020 — about 13% overall and 20% of men. In fact, he lost black conservatives to Kamala Harris by an 11-point margin. Investing financial, political, and social capital to attract black voters has yielded poor returns. But this does not spell the death of black conservatism.
The movement needs a new generation of “reconstructionists” focused on strengthening local institutions and individuals rather than politicos and media personalities fixated on national elections. The most crucial task ahead is restoring the traditional family structure that prevailed from the end of the Civil War through the Civil Rights movement.
From 1890 to 1950, black men and women were more likely than their white counterparts to be married by age 35. In the 1930s, 65% of black women were married before having their first child. The 1960 Census showed that two-thirds of black children lived in two-parent households. Today, only 33% of black adults are married, 70% of black children are born to unmarried parents, and 45% live with a single mother. These outcomes are worse for blacks than for any other group.
The most valuable contribution
Although the family is the most important institution, it is not the only one. The poor educational outcomes in many urban districts should motivate a new generation of black conservative scholars, educators, and activists to take action.
Many have already risen to the occasion.
Ian Rowe, an educator who has spent his career teaching children in the Bronx, opened Vertex Partnership Academies in 2022. This high school’s mission is guided by the four cardinal virtues: courage, justice, temperance, and wisdom. Denisha Allen founded Black Minds Matter, an organization that promotes school choice and empowers black educators working to improve outcomes in their communities.
These leaders demonstrate that black conservatives need not feel conflicted between their ethnic identity and political ideology, especially when both are grounded in a Christian worldview of human dignity.
For black conservatism to survive, it must aspire to more than just policing the excesses of the progressive left or the fringe right.
The movement should also avoid the trap of believing that electoral politics alone can drive social progress. The most valuable contribution black conservatives can make today is to leverage their cultural competency, experience, relationships, and expertise to build institutions that can radically improve social and economic outcomes in the cities and communities they care about most.
Trump, Milei, and Orbán lead a conservative resurgence worldwide
Over the past several years, global political ideologies have shifted dramatically from left to right. Across Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa, nations that once embraced progressive policies have experienced a surge in right-leaning populism and conservative movements.
Liberal politicians aligned with the Davos-driven global agenda are being replaced by nationalists putting their countries first. Leaders like Javier Milei in Argentina, Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and Donald Trump in the United States have transformed the political landscape, leaving traditional elites scrambling.
The current shift to the right has ushered in Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. A successful Trump presidency could sustain this momentum for decades to come.
This trend continues. Governments in Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom face mounting pressure from right-leaning factions. In the United States, even liberal figures like New York Mayor Eric Adams are echoing Donald Trump’s rhetoric, while progressive prosecutors, such as San Francisco’s Chesa Boudin, backed by George Soros, have been voted out of office.
This shift reflects more than political realignment. It signals a broader societal transformation driven by economic instability, cultural upheaval, unchecked immigration, and the political fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The failed Biden administration serves as a clear example of the transformation underway.
Economic instability
The fiscal and monetary policies of the Biden administration led to the highest inflation rate in decades, going from 1.4% when Joe Biden took office in January 2021 to a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. On average, prices were up approximately 20% during the Biden presidency. People could not afford to put gas in their cars, fill their grocery carts, or make their mortgage payments. Americans’ credit card debt reached record levels, topping $1.1 billion in February 2024.
The Biden administration’s answer was to tell the American people that inflation was transitory and that Americans had it better than the rest of the world. Not much help to a single mother trying to afford to feed her children and pay the rent.
Trump understood this and promised to return America to the economic success it realized during his first term as president. Vowing to Make America Great Again ... again.
Social and cultural upheaval
During the Biden administration, the United States experienced a cultural transformation as private companies and government agencies put diversity, equity, and inclusion over profits and efficiency.
Controversial decisions, such as using a transgender influencer as a spokesperson for Bud Light and Target’s introduction of “tuck-friendly” swimsuits for transgender teens, led to consumer backlash, boycotts, and significant revenue losses.
The White House hosted Pride Month celebrations, where some transgender attendees paraded topless. The administration also flew the transgender flag at the White House and U.S. embassies around the globe and supported policies allowing biological men to compete against biological women in sports.
Working Americans perceived these moves as a threat to traditional values and their children’s well-being. With a struggling economy, many found it difficult to support a president who, in their view, prioritized cultural debates, like access to bathrooms, over addressing pressing financial issues.
Trump capitalized on this discontent, opposing policies that allowed men to compete against women in sports, keeping boys out of girls’ bathrooms, and emphasizing unity by celebrating all Americans rather than dividing them into groups. As the newly elected president, Trump has gone further, declaring it U.S. policy to recognize only two sexes. He also mandated that only the American flag be flown at government buildings, embassies, military bases, and on government websites.
Illegal immigration
Trump made immigration and building the wall a central focus of his first presidential run. Then, Biden made a joke out of the nation’s borders by allowing unchecked illegal immigration and forbidding organizations such as ICE from deporting those illegal aliens who committed violent crimes.
An estimated 10 million people — at minimum — entered the country illegally since January 2021. Violent crimes committed by illegal aliens became a central part of the 2024 election, partly due to the brutal murder of nursing student Laken Riley at the hands of a Venezuelan national in the country unlawfully.
Trump promised the most massive deportation effort in American history of those in the country illegally. It resonated, especially with legal immigrants, with Trump winning a record number of Hispanic votes.
The COVID response
The response to COVID-19 underscored the stark divide between left-leaning and conservative leadership. Democratic governors in states like New York, Michigan, Illinois, and California imposed strict lockdowns, confining residents to their homes and forcing businesses to close. Meanwhile, Republican governors in states like Texas and Florida kept their economies open, allowing their states to thrive.
President Biden mandated that military personnel receive the experimental COVID-19 vaccine and attempted to use OSHA to enforce a nationwide vaccine requirement for workers. The Supreme Court ultimately struck down the mandate. In contrast, Donald Trump opposed such mandates, a stance that resonated with many Americans who rejected forced vaccinations. Trump leveraged his opposition to COVID mandates to bolster his support for smaller, less intrusive government, continuing his “drain the swamp” message from 2016.
Sometimes called the “people’s billionaire,” Trump demonstrated a keen understanding of Americans’ frustrations during his successful 2024 presidential campaign. By addressing hot-button cultural issues such as men in women’s sports and illegal immigration, Trump appealed to voters alarmed by perceived negative changes to America’s values and culture. His promises to restore the economy, dismantle DEI initiatives, and reduce government interference in daily life resonated with middle-class voters seeking to provide for their families, keep more of their paychecks, and simply be left alone.
Political influence tends to swing between left and right over time. The current shift to the right has ushered in Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. A successful Trump presidency could sustain this momentum for decades to come.
The Transformation of Kevin Roberts
Twenty years ago Kevin Roberts was an assistant professor of history at New Mexico State University. Today he’s president of the Heritage Foundation, which bills itself as "America’s most influential policy organization" and is best known for its "Project 2025" presidential transition recommendations. But the contrast between Roberts then and now is far more dramatic than those two facts alone suggest.
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Andrew Tate’s Trojan horse: Would the right let in a ‘minor-attracted person’ too?
Judging by their embrace of Andrew Tate, it seems as though some conservative influencers in 2025 are ready to trade in their familiar “Christ is King” mantra for a new one: “Pimping ain’t easy.”
Benny Johnson is a popular conservative commentator with over 3 million followers on X and close to 3 million subscribers on YouTube. He caused a major controversy in right-wing circles after announcing he would have the man known as “Top G” on his show to discuss the sentencing phase of President Trump’s hush-money case. Johnson advertised his guest with an image of both men in black aviator shades with images of a crying liberal woman in their lenses.
American conservatism will die a well-deserved death if it becomes defined by its foes rather than its values.
The imagery was telling. Andrew Tate has described his webcam operation featuring over 75 women as “pimping” and bragged about getting “betas” from all over the world to send money to the women “working” for him. His appearance on Johnson’s show wasn’t going to be a hard-hitting interview about Tate’s own legal troubles, an update on his human trafficking case in Romania, or his past statements about controlling women.
Tate’s contribution to the show was essentially a series of comparisons he made between himself and President Trump, as well as complaints about conservatives “policing” right-wing bad boys. At one point, Alina Habba, one of Trump’s legal counselors, joined the show and gushed over Tate. She compared his legal travails to Trump’s and told Tate she sympathizes with him, admires him, and has his back.
I try to avoid therapeutic language, but Tate’s defenders conducted a master class in gaslighting. Instead of addressing the concerns conservatives have about Tate’s content and views, they made the issue about censorship and free speech. Johnson even tried to shield himself with the Bible, posting, “He who is without sin cast the first stone …”
I have no problem with media personalities speaking to guests with controversial views. I’m an ’80s baby who remembers when talk show hosts would invite provocateurs to explain their ideas and defend their positions in front of a hostile crowd. But there is a big difference between Phil Donahue interviewing a former Klansman to understand his views and fawning over him like an Exalted Cyclops groupie.
The pushback against Tate and his defenders isn’t about “cancel culture” or policing speech. It’s driven by the fact Tate promotes a lifestyle and worldview that are completely antithetical to what conservatives claim they value.
I highly doubt any conservative influencer would post an image promoting a drag queen who performs in front of kids or a pediatric surgeon who performs “gender-affirming” hysterectomies and then screech about free speech and censorship when fans criticize their decision. Likewise, no one would accept such a lapse in judgement with out-of-context scriptures.
Conservatives have a right to determine which ideas need to be debated publicly and which personalities should be promoted widely. Failure to use discernment when considering allies and co-belligerents always backfires.
I saw this firsthand in 2020 when Black Lives Matter turned a self-evidently true phrase into a movement that gave its leaders political power, cultural influence, and a multimillion-dollar real estate portfolio. Of all the victims of BLM’s obvious scam, the churches and pastors who hitched their wagon to anti-family Marxist lesbians were by far the most pitiful. My issue with them was not their naïveté. It was the fact that they thought they needed people with such anti-biblical views to deliver a message about the value of human life that could be pulled straight from the Bible.
Likewise, American conservatism will die a well-deserved death if it becomes defined by its foes rather than its values.
You can’t take a bold public stance against pornography one minute and celebrate OnlyFans “entrepreneurs” the next simply because they have “based” takes on politics. You can’t claim to care about rebuilding the family one day, then fawn all over people whose ideas will only create more broken homes. You can’t call out transgender ideology when it’s pushed by “impossible women” in public health roles but prop up men identifying as women on the right because they appear to be more convincing counterfeits or support the incoming president.
The litmus test for the right can’t be how much a person is hated by the left. You don’t have to be an expert on Andrew Tate’s legal issues to understand why conservatives shouldn’t want to see his ideas and views legitimized. If having the right enemies is all it takes to become a conservative media darling, a shrewd “minor-attracted person” could simply hide his pedophilia behind a manufactured persona characterized by standing up to the globalists trying to destroy Western civilization.
No serious political movement should be that easy to hoodwink, and no self-respecting person would want to be.
Lee Edwards, 1932-2024
Lee Edwards, who died last week at the age of 92, was right from the beginning. When Soviet tanks rolled into Hungary in 1956, crushing an anti-Communist rebellion, Lee was serving his country as a U.S. Army officer in West Germany. He had no trouble distinguishing the good guys from the bad guys. Communism was the enemy. The Soviet Union smothered individual freedom, warred against the family, and recognized no higher power. Its vast armies and growing nuclear arsenal menaced America. If the Communists won—if their revolution spread throughout the world, leaving nothing behind but misery and death—then the last best hope of Earth would vanish. Containment was not enough. Only victory over communism would guarantee the future of freedom and traditional ways of life. Thus, when he left the Army, Lee enlisted in the growing ranks of a civilian force devoted to protecting the American experiment from threats foreign and domestic: the conservative movement.
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How To Get Conservative Judges To Do Conservative Things
Sixty Years Later, Reagan’s ‘A Time For Choosing’ Speech Casts Enduring Vision Of Conservatism And Freedom
America is Moving Right. But for How Long?
Finally, some good news: "No Matter Who Wins, the US Is Moving to the Right," reads the headline of David Weigel's recent piece in Semafor. Nor is Weigel the only one who's noticed. Listen to Kamala Harris abandon her past positions, watch Democratic ads on television, or read the latest polling, and the trend line is clear. Why? Because Harris has no other choice. The polling doesn't look good. All depends on Harris's ability to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania depends on fracking, and Philadelphia has experienced a rise in social disorder. Michigan voters (like voters elsewhere) are leery of electric vehicles. Wisconsin is Harris's best Rust Belt state—but there too she must confront an electorate unhappy with the economy, worried about crime, and angry at incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin.
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