Republicans are leading the field in the California governor race



Steve Hilton, the leading candidate for governor of California despite his status as an unapologetic Republican, called it a perfect metaphor for the state’s spate of recent failures.

After the University of Southern California abruptly canceled its televised gubernatorial debate less than 24 hours before it was set to take place, Democrats scrambled to come up with an alternative forum. Despite the frantic reaction, the crowded field of Democratic candidates couldn’t agree to the proposed ground rules.

As candidates scrambled to regroup after USC canceled the debate, the large field of Democrats still couldn’t agree on a commitment to continue including all the candidates in future debates.

The debate implosion and the subsequent failure to quickly reorganize played right into the leading GOP contender’s hands.

“This is just so symptomatic of everything that's wrong with California,” Hilton told RealClearPolitics on Tuesday in the aftermath of the debate’s cancellation. “Everything is broken, from the high-speed rail, where they haven't laid any tracks. Then last week we saw that $100 million butterfly bridge to nowhere. Nothing works. Everything’s broken. It’s all a shambles. They can’t even organize a debate.”

Decades ago, USC was considered a conservative alternative to public academic institutions across the state. More recently, the private university has become indistinguishable from the rest — at least when it comes to cancel culture.

All of the candidates the university had decided to invite to participate in the planned debate, hosted by Univision and KABC, are white. All of the candidates left out are minorities who also happened to be polling in the single digits: California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond (D), former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and former California State Controller Betty Yee (D) were not invited after the university said they had not met their debate criteria.

Those invited included former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R), Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D), former Rep. Katie Porter (D), businessman Tom Steyer (D), and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D).

“We recognize that concerns about the selection criteria for tomorrow’s gubernatorial debate have created a significant distraction from the issues that matter to voters,” the university said in a statement. “Unfortunately, USC and [debate co-sponsor] KABC have not been able to reach an agreement on expanding the number of candidates. ... As a result, USC has made the difficult decision to cancel tomorrow’s debate and will look for other opportunities to educate voters on the candidates and issues.”

The university would not commit to a new date for the debate.

Hilton and Bianco have been leading the crowded pack of candidates for months, stirring up panic amid veteran Democratic Party operatives that they could both emerge from the June 2 primary to run against one another and shut out Democrats entirely. Swalwell and Porter have been polling around 10%, with Steyer, despite spending tens of millions of dollars, a few points behind.

Under California’s “top-two” primary system, only the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. Democrats are concerned that Hilton and Bianco are poised to do so if the field of Democratic candidates doesn’t narrow down quickly.

It was Mahan’s invitation, however, that really stung among those sidelined from the stage. A white Democratic centrist candidate, Mahan had only recently entered the race and was polling in the single digits along with those excluded from the debate.

Still USC explained his inclusion by citing a new debate-inclusion criteria that valued intensive fundraising. The Democrats complaining about being left out didn’t buy the rationale and instead cited Mahan’s USC ties as evidence of special treatment.

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Mike Murphy, co-director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, which was hosting the debate, had been, on a voluntary basis, advising an independent expenditure committee supporting Mahan. Yet Murphy claimed to have nothing to do with organizing the debate and pledged to temporarily step down from his university role if he decided to accept a paid position from any entity backing Mahan.

Over the weekend when Xavier Becerra (D), Thurmond, and others started complaining about Mahan’s inclusion, top Democratic legislators decided to weigh in.

The speaker of California’s Assembly, Robert Rivas, and the leader of the state Senate, Monique Limon, joined the leaders of the legislative Latino, Black, Asian and Pacific Islander, Native American, LGBTQ, Jewish, and women’s caucuses in writing a letter to USC President Beong-Soo Kim demanding that they change their “biased criteria.”

“The outcry over this debate is deafening and includes legal demands from the excluded candidates’ attorneys, public calls by elected leaders across the state, concerns from the included candidates’ own campaigns, and growing alarm from California voters,” the legislators wrote. “Instead of responding to these valid concerns by expanding the debate, USC has doubled down.”

The debate was supposed to take place at a critical time — with two Republican candidates consistently running ahead of their Democratic counterparts, none of whom has broken out of a crowded field. It also was set to occur less than two months before the state planned to send ballots to every registered voter.

In early March, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks published an open letter urging Democratic contenders to consider dropping out if they didn’t see a realistic path to a primary victory.

“If you do not have a viable path to make it to the general election, do not file to place your name on the ballot for the primary election,” Hicks wrote just days before the March 6 filing deadline. But no candidate decided to heed Hicks’ call, and the letter drew a scathing response from Thurmond, who asserted that it was aimed at pressuring “candidates of color” to end their gubernatorial bids.

“Our political system is rigged,” Thurmond said. “The California Democratic Party is essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out.”

Hicks rejected that criticism, noting the letter did not name any specific candidate.

As candidates scrambled to regroup after USC canceled the debate, the large field of Democrats still couldn’t agree on a commitment to continue including all the candidates in future debates.

Part of the group wanted all parties to abide by a pledge to participate in future debates only if all Democratic candidates are invited. But that idea fell apart when they couldn’t get a commitment from fellow Democratic candidates.

Still Becerra, one of the candidates who was not invited to the USC debate, celebrated the decision to quash it entirely in a post on X:

We fought. We won! We stood up against an unfair candidate debate set-up that prematurely chose winners and losers. Tonight USC made the right decision to cancel their March 24 gubernatorial forum ... so hopefully next time it’s done right. Thank you to everyone who stood up, raised hell and demanded justice. Never give up when you’re fighting for fairness!

The Democratic disarray on rescheduling handed an opportunity to Hilton and Bianco. Instead of taking the night off, Hilton held an X.com space with more than 300 people participating. Meanwhile Bianco spoke to supporters at an event in Los Angeles.

A Bianco campaign social media post crossed out the words “debate watch party” and blamed Democrats for the abrupt change.

“The Ds got the debate canceled, but we’re showing up anyway!” the post said. “See you tonight @sheriffbianco will be there.”

Hilton, who has been campaigning for roughly a year and has led in the polls for months, shared an X space forum with Elaine Culotti, an independent candidate for governor who is running under “NPP” — no party preference.

Culotti, a California real estate developer and interior designer who starred in the Discovery+ reality series “Undercover Billionaire,” appears poised to throw her support to Hilton if he wins the primary, even though she argues that her current participation in the race takes votes away from Swalwell.

The two more ideologically aligned candidates continued to criticize Democrats for blowing up the debate while laying out their own visions for reforming California, by not only stopping the U-Haul exodus of those moving out to find more affordable places to live but attracting more businesses to the state. Culotti said she would do so by reducing taxes to attract more than 100,000 businesses, leading to more jobs and more tax revenue.

Hilton said he would address affordability and businesses’ exodus from the state by opening up more oil and gas exploration, something he said could be done by executive order and by “kicking out all the climate fanatics” that California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) placed in key positions in the government.

“Right now, they are denying the industry permits for every aspect of [oil and gas] operating in California, whether that’s maintaining existing wells or expanding them, or drilling new ones — all of that,” Hilton said.

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Hilton and Culotti also discussed the positive aspects of having a governor in Sacramento who could work with the Trump administration to implement a forest management plan that would help prevent devastating wildfires while providing billions more in federal funds to help the Palisades and Eaton wildfire victims rebuild.

“Whatever happens in the 2028 presidential election, we know we’re going to have two years where the next governor will overlap with the Trump administration,” Hilton said. “And that’s one of the things I'm most excited about. I’ve got good, good relationships with, you know, half the Cabinet.”

No one asked Hilton how he will contend with deep animosity toward Trump in a state where the number of registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly two to one.

Instead Hilton said he would prefer that Bianco drop out so he could consolidate the Republican support while working to turn out independents and Republicans in November in an election that includes ballot initiatives to institute voter ID and to maintain Proposition 13, a state constitutional amendment that imposes strict limits on property tax increases.

"You’ve got people in charge now who just don't think like this, and as we saw with the debate nonsense and raising the race card ... they’re just on a different planet," Hilton said. "But the underlying answer to how you deliver all of these things is just to take a sledgehammer to the massive, bloated nanny-state bureaucracy that is making everything so expensive and so difficult."

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

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The SAVE America Act won’t be enough to save the GOP from a midterm bloodbath



Turn on Fox News, scroll social media, or listen to talk radio, and one message comes through loud and clear: Many Republicans think the SAVE America Act is the key to saving the GOP in the November midterms.

It is not.

The SAVE America Act is not a magic wand. It will not erase 14 months of drift, dysfunction, and broken promises.

Yes, requiring proof of citizenship to register and identification to vote is necessary. Yes, most Americans, regardless of party, support the idea. But Republicans are kidding themselves if they think that alone will persuade voters to reward them in November.

The rot runs much deeper, and no “one simple trick” will fix it.

Trump surged to victory in 2024 on promises to change the country’s direction in dramatic ways. Fourteen months later, too many of those promises remain unfulfilled. Some died at the hands of weak and ineffective congressional leadership. Others were thwarted by feckless Cabinet officials, such as the new czarina of the Shield of the Americas, Kristi Noem. Others fell victim to Trump’s own choices.

The core promises were clear: mass deportations, a stronger economy, lower inflation, and no new long-term foreign entanglements. Those themes helped Trump assemble a broad coalition, including a majority of young men, and deliver the biggest Republican Electoral College victory since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Now, with just over seven months until the midterms, nearly all of those promises remain unmet or badly compromised. Facts aren’t partisan — they are just facts.

Start with immigration. For all the left’s hysteria over ICE raids, Trump has deported fewer people than Barack Obama did in the first year of his second term. That came after four years of unprecedented illegal immigration under Biden. The promise of mass deportation remains unfulfilled.

Congress hasn’t helped. Ineffective Republican leadership has let the Department of Homeland Security go without funding for over a month, slowing deportation efforts while creating chaos at airports as TSA employees go unpaid. The public sees dysfunction, not competence.

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Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Then comes the economy.

The cost of living has not gone down. Signs point the other way. Inflation could surge past 4% as energy prices rise because of the war with Iran. Food prices remain high and may climb higher as petroleum-based fertilizer gets more expensive just before planting season. Homes remain unaffordable to most Americans. The job market sits on the edge of an AI-fueled bust. The promised relief in the form of larger tax refund checks has not materialized.

The labor market struggles as rampant H-1B visa abuse keeps importing cheaper foreign labor into high-paying STEM jobs that Americans want and are trained to do. Trump and Republican leaders still talk about H-1B as though it were a strategic advantage rather than a direct threat to their own voters.

Guess what? Voters have noticed.

Recent polling shows Democrat James Talarico leading both Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn in Texas. Former Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper holds a commanding lead in the race to replace Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina. Even in Maine, the Democrat challenger accused of sporting a Nazi tattoo leads Sen. Susan Collins.

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Bob Daemmrich/Texas Tribune/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The bad numbers do not stop there. A glance at RealClearPolitics tells the terrifying tale.

Special elections are just as ugly. In those races, including the district that encompasses Mar-a-Lago, Democrats have run strongly among independent voters, the very bloc that helped solidify Trump’s 2024 coalition.

That is the problem Republicans refuse to face. The SAVE America Act is a common-sense bill, and Congress should pass it. Elections should be protected from ineligible voters. But the bill is not a magic wand. It will not erase 14 months of drift, dysfunction, and broken promises. It will not lower prices, deport illegal aliens, fix the job market, or persuade disillusioned independents to come back home.

Republicans do not face a midterm problem because they have failed to pass one bill. They face a midterm problem because they have failed to deliver on the reasons voters put them back in power.

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Red-state inaction is the soft underbelly of border politics



Fourteen months into Trump’s second term, the verdict is in. No mass deportations. No major immigration reform. And if Democrats return to power, they will rip the doors off the hinges again.

Trump did slow the flow and put a dent in some outdated visa programs. But the results remain too small relative to the scale of what came before him and what may come after him.

One day, red states will need to enact these deterrents. The only question is timing.

That leaves one durable partial solution: Use red-state supermajorities to deter illegal aliens from settling in those states when the next wave comes. States may lack the power to deport illegal aliens outright, but they can make daily life harder. They can deny jobs and benefits, impose criminal penalties, and create a lasting deterrent that survives any one presidency.

Ron DeSantis appears to understand this in Florida. Almost no other Republican governor does.

Idaho offers the clearest example of the problem. On paper, it looks like the kind of state where serious immigration enforcement should be easy. Republicans hold 61-9 and 29-6 majorities in the House and Senate. Conservatives gained ground in the House thanks to the Freedom Caucus. Yet when the time came to pass meaningful reforms, the GOP establishment folded.

The House moved several bills. The Senate is quietly killing them. Gov. Brad Little (R) remains publicly silent, apparently hoping the issue dies in committee while he cruises to re-election under Trump’s preemptive endorsement and keeps his donor class happy.

The bills now stalled in Idaho expose the fraud.

H704 would mandate E-Verify for all public and private employers and give the state attorney general real enforcement power. It passed the House 43-26 despite opposition from 17 Republicans. It now sits dead in the Senate State Affairs Committee under Chairman Jim Guthrie and Senate President Pro Tempore Kelly Anthon.

H700 would make it a misdemeanor knowingly to hire illegal aliens without using E-Verify. That bill is also dead in the Senate, and 22 House Republicans opposed it.

H659 would require all counties and cities to cooperate with ICE through 287(g) agreements. In a state with barely any elected Democrats, one might assume mandatory ICE cooperation would be the easiest of calls. Instead, the bill passed the House 41-27, with 18 lukewarm Republicans joining Democrats in opposition, and now sits dead in the Senate State Affairs Committee.

H660 would require police to inquire about immigration status after a lawful arrest and would mandate a twice-yearly report on crimes committed by illegal aliens. By definition, this involves people already suspected of some other offense. Even so, the bill passed only 40-30 and is now being blocked in the Senate Judiciary Committee.

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Blaze Media Illustration

H764 would create a state analogue to the federal statute that penalizes anyone who knowingly or recklessly conceals, harbors, transports, or materially assists illegal aliens. It includes misdemeanor and felony penalties, license revocations, and forfeiture provisions. In other words, it would build precisely the kind of standing deterrent red states will need when Democrats reopen the border. It has not even advanced out of committee.

S1318 would audit refugee-resettlement contractors in Idaho, including the number of refugees served, their demographic and language data, participation in language programs, housing use, geographic distribution, and relevant public-health statistics. It would also require disclosure if those entities aided illegal aliens. It remains blocked in the Senate State Affairs Committee.

H592 would require the state to track how many illegal aliens receive hospital services and how much that costs taxpayers. It would not deny care. It would merely quantify the burden. A similar law in Florida led to a drop in illegal-alien use of the health care system. Idaho’s bill has not moved.

H656 would do the same basic thing in schools by auditing the number of illegal aliens enrolled. It has gone nowhere.

How does this happen in a state so red? The answer is simple: Many Republican officials remain functionally progressive on immigration.

Little is deeply unpopular with the grassroots, but he neutralized the threat of a primary by securing Trump’s endorsement. Everyone knows he opposes these bills. He simply does not want to say so out loud. Better to let them die quietly in committee than risk angering the base or the business interests that still demand cheap labor.

Call it political Murphy’s law. DeSantis is term-limited in Florida. Brad Little gets a third term.

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DOMINIC GWINN/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

Even Florida has not gone far enough. It already has E-Verify, but lawmakers failed to remove the 25-employee exception. Similar attempts to strengthen E-Verify have failed in West Virginia, Indiana, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, all solidly red states.

A few bright spots remain.

Tennessee may pass some worthwhile bills, though lawmakers gutted legislation to charge illegal aliens tuition. Arizona’s legislature is close to passing SB 1421, which would bar illegal aliens from opening bank accounts, cashing checks, or obtaining loans by prohibiting financial institutions from accepting foreign ID cards or ITINs as sole identification. It would make life in the United States much harder without legal status. The bill passed the Senate and awaits a House vote. Unfortunately, Arizona has a Democrat governor who will likely veto it.

That only raises the harder question: Why is this not already law in the 22 Republican trifecta states?

The same problem appears in commercial trucking. Amid the rash of crashes involving illegal-alien drivers, very few states have acted seriously. Oklahoma alone passed a law requiring proof of citizenship to reciprocate out-of-state commercial driver’s licenses. Florida appears to be the one state seriously enforcing the English-language requirement and checking for illegal aliens at truck stops.

Iowa let a bill die in committee that would have required driver’s license exams to be administered only in English. Indiana passed an English-only testing bill, but still failed to address out-of-state CDLs, even after two illegal aliens killed Indiana residents in separate incidents in less than two weeks in February.

One day, red states will need to enact these deterrents. The only question is timing. Will Republicans build them now, during the lull, or will they wait until hundreds of thousands of new invaders flood back in under a future President Gavin Newsom?

That choice will tell us whether Republicans ever meant a word they said about immigration.

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America has a spending problem Congress refuses to fix



Washington Democrats just voted against the one rule every American family already lives by: balancing the budget. Last week, I brought my Balanced Budget Amendment to the House floor. It failed. Meanwhile the national debt has reached $39 trillion and counting.

My amendment would have required Washington to phase in a simple rule: Congress cannot spend more than it takes in.

Democrats would rather keep the autopilot running and the national credit card maxed out than make the tough decisions to bring spending in line with what Americans want and need.

Democrats once claimed to support that principle. Last week, only one voted yes. Let that sink in.

Opposing a balanced budget is not some noble policy disagreement. It is a refusal to confront a crisis. Interest on the national debt already costs more than national defense. By midcentury, interest payments are projected to double our defense spending.

This debate is not about making a spreadsheet look tidy. Revenues are not the problem. Overspending is. American families already understand the difference. They pay the mortgage and buy groceries first. They skip the extras. They live on what they earn.

That is far from radical. It’s common sense.

The debt passed $39 trillion on March 17, up $4.5 trillion in just two years. That works out to $289,000 per household. Interest payments alone are projected to hit $1.04 trillion this year, or about $7,700 per household, just to service Washington’s tab. By the time you finish reading this, the number will be higher.

And that is before you factor in the waste, fraud, and outright abuse.

Since 2003, the federal government has made nearly $3 trillion in improper payments. The states are hardly better. In Minnesota, a federal prosecutor said half or more of the roughly $18 billion in federal funds sent to 14 state-run programs since 2018 may have been stolen. Half or more. Billions of taxpayer dollars disappeared through fake autism centers, phony housing providers, and shell companies.

The federal government and the states are ripping you off.

We have known for years that government spending was out of control. But at this scale, waste no longer looks like a bug in the system. It looks like a feature.

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Democrats’ refusal even to vote for a Balanced Budget Amendment shows they have no interest in fixing it. They would rather keep the autopilot running and the national credit card maxed out than make the tough decisions to bring spending in line with what American families want and need.

That refusal was on full display last week. Democrats chose more debt, more inflationary pressure, and more fiscal chaos. They are not worried about bankrupting the country.

But their "no" votes were not the only warning sign. Congress has already seen the consequences of fiscal irresponsibility and still refuses to change course.

The Biden-Harris years added trillions in new debt and helped deliver the worst inflation in 40 years. Prices surged while paychecks lagged. Working mothers stretching every grocery dollar felt it. Seniors on fixed incomes felt it. Families living paycheck to paycheck felt it.

That is the real-world price of refusing to balance the books.

I offered a real fix. My Balanced Budget Amendment would force Washington to do what every family already does: live on what comes in, pay the important bills first, cut the extras, and stop borrowing from the next generation to finance today’s spending.

This is not complicated. It is basic math. It is common sense. It is America First.

As we approach America’s 250th birthday, the best gift we can give the next generation is a government that finally lives by the same rule every family does and stops pretending this mountain of debt does not matter.