Trump’s Iran gamble: Peace Prize or Persian Gulf firestorm



Even after his theatrical State of the Union address, President Trump remains the only person who knows for certain whether the United States will strike Iran. That ambiguity does not signal confusion. It reflects a negotiator’s instinct: The threat of force often carries more value than force itself.

As a massive American armada gathers in the Persian Gulf — the region’s largest naval deployment since 2003, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford — the White House is also signaling that it still prefers a grand bargain to a regional war. For a president who has long said his legacy will rest on ending “endless wars” and who plainly covets a Nobel Peace Prize, a diplomatic breakthrough that dismantles Iran’s nuclear ambitions without a shot fired would be the ideal outcome.

The Geneva talks are more than another diplomatic set piece. They will test whether Trump’s 'art of the deal' can work against one of the most entrenched regimes in the Middle East.

The tension in Washington is palpable, and the president’s frustration is starting to show through his inner circle.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, recently offered a revealing glimpse during a briefing on the Gulf buildup. Referring to the sweeping mobilization of ships, personnel, and equipment, Witkoff said Trump is "curious" that despite the gathering of this massive armada, Iran has not yet "capitulated.”

That remark gets to the heart of the standoff. The strategy is pure Trump: maximize leverage, restate the “zero enrichment” red line, and wait for the other side to conclude that its only path to survival runs through a signed deal. But the clerical regime in Tehran has proved more stubborn than even Trump appears to have expected.

As the third round of negotiations began in Geneva on Thursday, there were real reasons for cautious optimism, even as rumors of a “multi-stage interim deal” continued to circulate.

For all its revolutionary bluster and posturing over ballistic missiles, the Iranian regime is facing a deep internal crisis. The mass protests that erupted in late 2025 and continued into early this year — with a fresh wave of student-led strikes reported this week — have badly shaken the system. Even after a brutal crackdown and sweeping internet blackouts, the grievances have not disappeared. The economy is in ruins, the rial has hit record lows, and the public has no appetite for a full-scale war with a superpower.

Inside Tehran, the divisions are growing. Hard-liners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still posture about delivering a “regret-inducing” response to American pressure. More pragmatic figures, however — reportedly now led by veteran negotiator Ali Larijani — are speaking more openly. They understand that a war with the United States could mean the end of the Islamic Republic itself. Reports suggest that even figures close to the supreme leader are searching for an off-ramp that preserves the regime’s core interests while winning enough sanctions relief to calm a restive population.

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Photo by Kenny Holston-Pool/Getty Images

The regional picture also favors Washington. Across the Gulf, Arab capitals are watching with a mix of anxiety and quiet approval. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others do not want their cities caught in the blast radius of a regional war. But they are also weary of Iran’s regional meddling and nuclear progress. They want Tehran checked without turning the Gulf into a battlefield. That gives Trump useful diplomatic cover to keep the pressure campaign in place while leaving the Geneva door open.

The Geneva talks are more than another diplomatic set piece. They will test whether Trump’s “art of the deal” can work against one of the most entrenched regimes in the Middle East.

By combining military pressure, economic punishment, and the lure of a sweeping agreement, Trump has pushed Tehran into a corner. The regime is learning that this White House has little interest in the incremental half measures of the past. Washington wants a broader settlement — one that reaches beyond the nuclear file to the wider balance of power in the region.

If a deal comes this week, it will likely come because Tehran concludes that domestic collapse poses a greater danger than diplomatic humiliation. For Trump, that would amount to a crowning achievement: proof that his transactional style can deliver where decades of conventional diplomacy failed.

In the high-stakes contest between Washington and Tehran, the winner may not be the side with the biggest fleet. It may be the side that best understands the other’s breaking point.

Venezuela was the stage. China was the target.



Last weekend’s Caribbean live-fire exercise in and around the suburbs of Caracas delivered a steady stream of tactical messages to the Western Hemisphere. We don’t like narco-terrorists, wannabe communists, bloated dictators, or people who supply oil to our adversaries.

But that wasn’t the real message.

Message to Xi: There’s a new sheriff in town. He isn’t ‘Sleepy Joe.’ And his call sign is FAFO.

The love note was addressed to China, and it read: We are awake now. Our game is FAFO.

America’s 36-year slumber on the Monroe Doctrine — “Stay out of the Western Hemisphere or else” — began after Panama in 1990. The Gulf War and the Global War on Terrorism followed, and Washington became dangerously myopic about threats in America’s own backyard.

Then came the turning point. When Bill Clinton signed off on communist China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2000, Beijing rapidly surged into a world-class economic power. Along with that rise came a succession of Chinese leaders who openly advanced the idea of global Chinese hegemony.

Oddly enough, many of those ideas came from an American — my late friend Alvin Toffler.

Toffler’s book “The Third Wave” so impressed Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang in 1984 that millions of bootleg Chinese translations were distributed — without royalties — throughout the People’s Liberation Army. The same thing happened after Toffler published “War and Anti-War.” Once again, millions of pirated copies circulated, and Beijing began integrating his ideas into military doctrine.

In the late 1990s, PLA Major General Qiao Liang and Colonel Wang Xiangsui wrote “Unrestricted Warfare,” borrowing heavily from Toffler while laying out a strategy to defeat the United States.

In hindsight, it should have been titled “Slow Motion War.”

The book focuses on perceived weaknesses in American character and American war-making. The United States remains a nation of quarterly earnings reports and election cycles. We change political leadership every two or four years. The Chinese think in generational time frames.

From their perspective, Americans only go to war when facing a “clear and present danger.”

The genius of “Unrestricted Warfare” lies in exploiting what happens when a threat is clear but not present — like cancer from long-term smoking — or present but not clear, like the slow poisons Lucrezia Borgia allegedly used on her enemies.

Qiao and Wang proposed a slow, steady pressure campaign against the four pillars of American national power: diplomatic, information, military, and economic — the DIME.

Examples abound. Diplomatic and economic leverage through the Belt and Road Initiative. Tight control of information inside China paired with aggressive information warfare abroad through platforms such as TikTok. A decades-long military buildup aimed at surpassing U.S. power. And a long trail of currency manipulation.

(And then there’s this gem from page 191 of “Unrestricted Warfare”: “Can special funds be set up to exert greater influence on another country’s government and legislature through lobbying?” Eric Swalwell might find that line interesting.)

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Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

While America fixated on the Middle East, China quietly embedded itself throughout Latin America. In Panama, Beijing gained control of port management at both ends of the Panama Canal and began upgrading the system. In Costa Rica — which has no army — China donated 3,500 police cars and built a national stadium in San José, free of charge. It also cut sweetheart deals involving hundreds of Chinese fishing trawlers. Colombia saw similar treatment.

Then came Orange Man Bad.

Donald Trump is the first president to grasp that China isn’t a Red Godzilla stomping cities with napalm breath and a scything tail. China is more like the Blob — and Trump is Steve McQueen.

Venezuela, Maduro, oil, and narco-terrorism were all subsets.

China was the target. Xi Jinping was the bullseye.

Zero hour wasn’t set by the weather. It was set by the departure of Chinese envoy Qiu Xiaoqi, who had just wrapped up discussions on future ties with Venezuela. Unfortunately for Beijing, Delta Force snagged and bagged Nicolás Maduro and his wife and had them sitting in a Brooklyn jail before the envoy even made it home.

Message to Xi: There’s a new sheriff in town. He isn’t “Sleepy Joe.” And his call sign is FAFO.

Any questions?

Trump makes America dangerous again — to our enemies



For the first time in years, the world once again views the United States as a force for strength, order, and peace. Clear, consistent American leadership backed by resolve is restoring the U.S. role as the world’s stabilizing power. That clarity is already reshaping some of the most entrenched conflicts, from the Middle East to Eastern Europe.

The breakthrough in Gaza illustrates the shift. What looked like a permanent cycle of bloodshed has given way to a ceasefire, the safe return of hostages, and the growing global isolation of Hamas — a terrorist group that has long thrived on regional instability. The success rests on American influence, quiet coordination with regional partners, and the renewed credibility that comes from a White House that means what it says.

After years of drift and decline, the world once again knows where America stands.

The same seriousness is now visible in Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to Washington may lead to a negotiated end to a devastating conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands and destabilized global energy and food markets. Zelenskyy described his meetings as a “big chance” to finish the war.

President Trump’s peace plan to end the Russia-NATO war in Ukraine will stop the bleeding, enable reconstruction, and reduce the strain on U.S. ammunition stocks at a moment when the Pentagon must prepare for a potential conflict with China.

US diplomacy regains stature

Strength backed by diplomacy — not drift or apology — is what puts the United States in high esteem with much of the world again. Nations respect a country willing to confront aggression and equally willing to help broker reconciliation.

That same clarity guides the administration’s approach to economics and trade. When America projects strength abroad, it must also defend economic interests at home.

Rebuilding America’s economic strength

After years of watching U.S. innovation shipped overseas, the administration has signaled that America will build, produce, and lead from within. That principle drove President Trump’s deal with Australia to break China’s grip on rare earth minerals — metals essential to everything from fighter jets and missiles to smartphones and electric vehicles.

For years, Beijing used its near-monopoly on mining and refining these materials as leverage, threatening to cut off supplies whenever the U.S. challenged its aggression. The deal with Australia strengthens both nations’ capacity to mine and process these strategic resources, allowing the U.S. to build advanced technology and military systems without bowing to Chinese pressure. It’s another example of President Trump converting economic strength into national security strength.

America’s return to Central Asia

Last week, President Trump hosted a meeting of the C5+1 — the United States and the five Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Founded in 2015, the group has rarely received presidential-level attention. That changed with Trump’s direct engagement.

Trump emphasized access to Central Asia’s vast reserves of rare and strategic minerals. Turkmenistan emerged as a potential transit hub for processing and exporting these resources to America. Airlines from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan signed agreements to purchase 37 Boeing aircraft. The president also announced the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a new trade corridor designed to boost connectivity and economic integration across the region.

Leaders reaffirmed commitments to counterterrorism cooperation, energy security, and balancing regional influence from Russia and China.

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Photo Illustration by Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Strength in technology policy

The administration’s posture on technology sends a message as unmistakable as a carrier group in the Pacific: America will defend its industries from predatory foreign dominance.

The recent approval of the Hewlett Packard Enterprise-Juniper Networks merger reflects that stance. The decision, made in consultation with national security officials, counters the global reach of China’s state-controlled telecom giant Huawei and strengthens U.S. data networks in an era defined by artificial intelligence and 5G. The move also signals that America will no longer sabotage its own companies to satisfy globalists or Beltway bureaucrats.

Predictably, Democratic attorneys general led by Colorado’s Phil Weiser — joined by congressional voices such as Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — denounced the decision. But their reflexive criticism doesn’t alter the administration’s commitment to peace-through-strength policies that protect American interests.

A world steadied by American resolve

When the U.S. leads with confidence, the world responds with respect. Whether confronting turmoil in the Middle East, pressing for stability in Europe, or rebuilding supply chains and industries essential to national security, American strength has produced a safer, more stable international environment.

After years of drift and decline, the world once again knows where America stands.

Peace through strength brought the world back to the table. Strength through accountability will keep it there. That is the kind of respect no adversary can test — and no ally will forget.

Trump warns Israel about interference in Syria after deadly raid, airstrikes



The Trump administration has worked diligently to help stabilize Syria in the wake of its December 2024 conquest by Islamic terrorists.

The administration has, for instance, removed sanctions and dropped the $10 million bounty on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the al-Qaeda-linked terrorist who is also known as Muhammad al-Jawlani; terminated the Syria sanctions program; revoked the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation of al-Sharaa's terrorist organizations al-Nusrah Front and HTS on July 8; and flooded parts of the war-torn country with humanitarian aid.

The recent Israeli attacks in the south of the country have prompted concerns among some in the administration, including the president, about the tenability of sustained peace in the region.

'We are trying to tell Bibi he has to stop this.'

President Donald Trump reiterated his support for al-Sharaa on Monday and suggested that Israel should refrain from further interference.

"The United States is very satisfied with the results displayed, through hard work and determination, in the Country of Syria," wrote the president. "We are doing everything within our power to make sure the Government of Syria continues to do what was intended, which is substantial, in order to build a true and prosperous Country."

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President Donald Trump shaking hands with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Photo by Syrian Presidency/Anadolu via Getty Images

"It is very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous State," continued Trump. "The new President of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is working diligently to make sure good things happen, and that both Syria and Israel will have a long and prosperous relationship together."

Two senior U.S. officials reportedly told Axios that the administration is concerned that repeated strikes inside Syria — including Israel's bombing of Syrian forces in July — serve to undermine hopes of an Israel-Syria security agreement.

Israeli troops reportedly killed 13 people, injured dozens, and arrested several individuals during a raid in Southern Syria on Friday, some footage of which Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adrae shared online.

The Israel Defense Forces indicated that the purpose of the operation was "to apprehend suspects from the Jaama Islamiya terrorist organization operating in the Beit Jinn area of southern Syria" and claimed that "during the activity several armed terrorists opened fire at the troops. IDF soldiers responded with live fire, supported by aerial assistance."

The Syrian foreign ministry characterized the attack as a "full-fledged war crime" and claimed that the raid and corresponding airstrikes left more than 10 civilians dead including women and children.

Walid Akasha, a local official in the area, told Reuters, "We're a peaceful, civilian population, farmers. We have a legitimate right to defend ourselves. We didn't attack them first — they came onto our land."

One of the U.S. officials told Axios, "The Syrians were going nuts. Their own constituents demanded retaliation because Syrian civilians were killed."

According to the officials, Israel neglected to notify the White House or Syria of the operation in advance.

"We are trying to tell Bibi he has to stop this because if it continues he will self-destruct — miss a huge diplomatic opportunity and turn the new Syrian government to an enemy," said one official, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu praised the Israeli soldiers involved in the Friday raid and noted in a statement on Tuesday, "After October 7th, we are determined to defend our communities on our borders, including the northern border, and to prevent the entrenchment of terrorists and hostile actions against us, to protect our Druze allies, and to ensure that the State of Israel is safe from ground attack and other attacks from the border areas."

"What we expect Syria to do, of course, is to establish a demilitarized buffer zone from Damascus to the buffer zone area, including, of course, the approaches to Mount Hermon and the summit of Mount Hermon," continued Netanyahu. "We hold these territories to ensure the security of the citizens of Israel, and that is what obligates us."

The prime minister suggested further that in a "good spirit and understanding of these principles, it is also possible to reach an agreement with the Syrians."

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Trump's 'chainsaw' ally wins key election in South America



Since taking office in December 2023, Argentina's self-proclaimed "anarcho-capitalist" President Javier Milei has successfully taken a "chainsaw" to his leftist predecessors' ruinous policies and rescued his nation from an economic death spiral.

Despite delivering significant results, the fate of the Argentine president's libertarian agenda and his nation's continued support from the U.S. were conditional on the success of Milei's Freedom Advances party in Sunday's midterm elections.

Fortunately for Milei and his anti-left alliance with the United States, the Freedom Advances party prevailed over its leftist rivals in almost every district in the country, securing nearly 41% of the national vote — far and above the result reportedly expected by the Milei government.

Milei's party picked up 64 seats in the lower house of the Argentine National Congress and 12 seats in the Senate. The ruling party exceeded the threshold necessary to sustain Milei's presidential vetoes.

President Donald Trump congratulated Milei "on his Landslide Victory" early Monday morning, noting, "Our confidence in him was justified by the People of Argentina."

"He's making us all look good. Congratulations Javier!" added Trump.

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Photo by Tomas Cuesta/Getty Images

"The [Argentine] president is fighting 100 years of bad economic history and policy," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at an Oct. 14 Cabinet meeting where Milei was present. "There's a midterm election coming up. We think he's going to do quite well and then continue his reform agenda."

Bessent indicated that whereas the Obama administration "wasted" an opportunity to support Latin American governments when they moved center-right politically, the Trump administration is forming economic bridges with like-minded nations that "want to do the right thing."

'The entire country confirmed its will to irreversibly change the destiny of our homeland.'

In the case of Argentina, whose stability Bessent indicated was "in the strategic interest of the United States," American support recently came in the form of a $20 billion currency swap — a lifeline bypassing the International Monetary Fund that is aimed at economically stabilizing the country — and the possibility of $20 billion more in private credit.

Trump underscored the importance of the election and noted that if Milei and his party didn't win, the U.S. would "not be generous with Argentina."

"Our approvals are somewhat subject to who wins the election because if a socialist or — in the case of New York City — a communist wins, you feel a lot differently about making an investment," said Trump, suggesting further that the U.S. wouldn't waste money supporting a government kneecapped by or captive to a leftist philosophy.

Milei noted in his victory speech that when the new lawmakers take their congressional seats in December, Argentina "will have the most reformist Congress in Argentina," and his party will work to make Argentina "the most free country in the world," reported the Buenos Aires Herald.

"Today, the entire country confirmed its will to irreversibly change the destiny of our homeland," added Milei.

Florida Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R) stated on Sunday, "Milei is the moral reference for the hemisphere, the exact opposite of Maduro. He's proving that freedom, capitalism, and democracy still work. President Trump recognizes that, and together we can help Latin America prosper with those same values."

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