John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania, met with Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz on Tuesday night to debate the issues. Among the issues tackled, including abortion, immigration, and crime, the greatest issue Fetterman faced was assembling coherent sentences.
While the impact of Fetterman's disastrous performance in the debate will not be fully realized until November 8, one online prediction market has indicated it may be game over.
The debate
Fetterman began Tuesday's debate in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, with an awkward salutation: "Hi. Good night, everybody."
\u201cFetterman opens the debate: \n\n"Hi. Good night everybody."\u201d
— Greg Price (@Greg Price) 1666742744
After branding Oz a liar in his opening statement, Fetterman suggested that his opponent wouldn't let him forget that he had a stroke in May, for which he required a pacemaker implant along with a defibrillator.
The Democrat noted that he "might miss some words during this debate, mush two words together, but it knocked me down, and I am going to keep coming back up."
While Fetterman made sure to address "the elephant in the room," it still managed to trample the Democrat throughout the remainder of the debate.
On a number of occasions, Fetterman either contradicted himself or struggled to find a point.
One of his more challenging moments was when the moderator asked about his shifting stance on fracking.
The New York Post reported that Pennsylvania could lose up to 600,000 jobs if fracking is banned and take a GDP hit of nearly $261 billion. In 2016, Fetterman reportedly supported a moratorium on fracking, stating, "There's no such thing as a green fracker." Newsweek indicated he had also referred to fracking as a "stain."
Given his historic antipathy for fracking, the debate moderator pressed Fetterman on his apparent Tuesday-night pivot on the issue, saying, "You're saying tonight that you support fracking, that you've always supported fracking, but there is that 2018 interview that you said, quote, 'I don't support fracking at all,' so how do you square the two?"
Fetterman answered, "I do support fracking. And I don't, I don't. I support fracking, and I stand and I do support fracking."
\u201cFetterman is asked about previously saying he wanted to eliminate fracking: \n\n"I support fracking and I don't I support fracking and I stand and I do support fracking."\u201d
— Greg Price (@Greg Price) 1666744414
When asked about whether the Biden administration has spent too much money, Fetterman responded, "Here's what I think we have to fight about inflation here right now. That's we need to fight about: inflation right now." He then proceeded to attack Oz for owning multiple homes and having merchandise allegedly manufactured in China.
\u201cModerator: "Has the Biden administration overspent and, if so, where do you think [it] should be cut." You have 60 seconds."\n\n*Pause"\n\nFetterman: "Here's what I think we have to fight about inflation here right now. That's we need to fight about: inflation right now." #PASen\u201d
— Curtis Houck (@Curtis Houck) 1666743575
The moderator asked Fetterman why he has refused to release his stroke-related medical records. The Democrat answered, "My doctors believe I am ready to be served."
\u201cMod: "Why haven't you released your medical records?"\n\nFetterman: "My doctors believe I am ready to be served."\n\nMod: "Why won't you release the records?"\n\nFetterman: "My doctor believes I am fit to be serving and I believe that is where I am standing."\u201d
— Greg Price (@Greg Price) 1666744145
'The elephant in the room'
USA Today reported that Fetterman's campaign advisers had attempted to lower expectations on Monday, claiming, "This isn't John's format." After the debate, some are left wondering whether the U.S. Senate is Fetterman's format.
"Why the hell did Fetterman agree to this?" asked one Democrat lawmaker and Fetterman supporter, who told Axios, "This will obviously raise more questions than answers about John's health."
Republican Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) reportedly told CNN, "It's sad to see John Fetterman struggling so much. He should take more time to allow himself to fully recover."
Donald Trump Jr. tweeted, "It's worse than any of us could have ever imagined. At this point the moderator is filibustering to make sure he doesn't get any more Qs. ... Even today's partisan hack media can't cover for Fetterman being brain dead!"
\u201cOMG John Fetterman it\u2019s worse than any of us could have ever imagined. At this point the moderator is filibustering to make sure he doesn\u2019t get any more Qs. I think that\u2019s 4 in a row to @DrOz. Even today\u2019s partisan hack media can\u2019t cover for Fetterman being brain dead! #PASen\u201d
— Donald Trump Jr. (@Donald Trump Jr.) 1666744870
Ann Coulter quipped, at President Joe Biden's expense: "At least give Fetterman this: In 2022, a debate performance like that can accurately be called 'presidential'."
Glenn Greenwald intimated it is not "ableist" to admit that Fetterman might have a considerable problem.
\u201cAny decent human being - by definition - feels great empathy for Fetterman. It's likely we and/or our loved ones will be disabled by illness at some point.\n\nBut this attempt to invent a new rule that it's "ableist" to discuss the cognitive abilities of candidates is just pathetic\u201d
— Glenn Greenwald (@Glenn Greenwald) 1666792101
Dire predictions
PredictIt is an online prediction market owned by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. It enables people to make predictions on political races by buying shares via a continuous double auction.
Share price corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place. According the site, users should "Buy ‘Yes’ shares when the price is too low, when you think your fellow traders are underestimating this likelihood. Buy ‘No’ shares when you think they are too optimistic."
In this instance, the question posed was: "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?"
On Sept. 28, it was 65 cents to bet "Yes" on Fetterman to win and only 37 cents to bet "Yes" on Oz.
This prediction market turned on Fetterman in a big way on Tuesday.
Although he had been ascribed higher value until October 18, confidence appears to have tanked on Oct. 25. A "Yes" buy for Oz went up from 53 cents to 65 cents. A "Yes" buy for Fetterman dropped from 50 cents the previous day to 39 cents.