A tax hike is coming — and it’s not just for the rich



Academy Award-winner Elizabeth Taylor, married eight times to seven men, likely entered each union with the hope it would last. Good things, after all, should be permanent.

Yet in Washington, permanence is too often treated as a liability. Nowhere is this more apparent than in tax policy. Thanks to arcane rules surrounding budget reconciliation, Congress routinely enacts pro-growth reforms with an expiration date baked in.

A permanent extension of the reconciliation bill’s pro-growth elements would produce more ‘bang for the buck’ than a temporary extension.

Consider the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Though the measure would extend and build upon President Donald Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it fails to permanently extend several of the law’s most pro-growth elements.

That’s a mistake. Again, good things should be permanent.

Pro-growth policies need permanence

Earlier this month, Unleash Prosperity Now — a nonprofit aligned with President Trump — organized a letter signed by more than 300 economists, myself included, urging Congress to “extend President Trump's tax cuts permanently to prevent a tax increase on January 1, 2026.”

Why do we insist upon permanence? Permanent pro-growth public policies result in better economic outcomes. In contrast, temporary policies create troublesome uncertainty, which, in turn, sows confusion for consumers and businesses, making financial planning and investment needlessly difficult.

A permanent extension of the reconciliation bill’s pro-growth elements would produce more economic “bang for the buck” than a temporary extension. It’s that simple.

According to the Tax Foundation, “Permanence for the [bill’s] four cost recovery provisions would more than double the long-run economic effect.” These provisions would include 100% bonus depreciation, expensing of research and development investment, and a more generous interest deduction limit, among others.

The Tax Foundation concludes:

The current package produces meager effects on GDP and a smaller U.S. capital stock over the long run because the cost recovery provisions sunset. As lawmakers continue to debate the tax package, they should not compromise on permanence for the most pro-growth provisions.

This view aligns with the prevailing economic literature. For example, a 2019 study by the St. Louis Federal Reserve concluded, “A rise in uncertainty is widely believed to have detrimental effects on macroeconomic, microeconomic, and financial market outcomes.”

If that warning were plastered on the side of a pack of cigarettes, it would read, “Congressionally induced policy uncertainty is hazardous to the country’s economic health.”

Jobs under threat

Fortunately, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) is determined to extend the reconciliation bill’s most pro-growth elements permanently. Bravo, Mr. Chairman!

Permanence aside, why did more than 300 economists call for preventing the tax increase scheduled under current law?

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Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

If taxes increase as planned, the economic fallout could be steep. Wells Fargo warns that average monthly job creation could plummet from 133,000 in the first quarter to just 25,000 next quarter — and then turn negative, with an estimated loss of 17,000 jobs per month in the fourth quarter.

If Congress fails to “spike the hike,” Wells Fargo estimates economic growth will slow to a tepid 1.1% this year and next.

A warning to deficit hawks

For those worried about the deficit, here's the paradox: Letting the economy slow — or worse, slip into recession — is the surest way to worsen the nation’s fiscal health.

To further underscore the situation, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who directed the Congressional Budget Office from 2003 to 2005, cautions: “Given the weak state of the economy, it [the scheduled tax increase] would likely trigger a recession, and the budget outlook never gets better in a recession.”

Yes, it’s that simple.

Elizabeth Taylor once quipped, “If you hear of me getting married [again], slap me!” At least, she had the right intentions. Congress, on the other hand, routinely resorts to temporary policies to game the reconciliation process. That needs to stop.

To guard against recession, Congress should reconsider the tax increase scheduled for next year. But to boost economic growth, Congress should follow Crapo’s lead and extend permanently the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act pro-growth provisions.

A brutal wake-up call from America’s most powerful banker



Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase — one of the most powerful financial institutions on earth — issued a warning the other day. But it wasn’t about interest rates, crypto, or monetary policy.

Speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California, Dimon pivoted from economic talking points to something far more urgent: the fragile state of America’s physical preparedness.

We are living in a moment of stunning fragility — culturally, economically, and militarily. It means we can no longer afford to confuse digital distractions with real resilience.

“We shouldn’t be stockpiling Bitcoin,” Dimon said. “We should be stockpiling guns, tanks, planes, drones, and rare earths. We know we need to do it. It’s not a mystery.”

He cited internal Pentagon assessments showing that if war were to break out in the South China Sea, the United States has only enough precision-guided missiles for seven days of sustained conflict.

Seven days — that’s the gap between deterrence and desperation.

This wasn’t a forecast about inflation or a hedge against market volatility. It was a blunt assessment from a man whose words typically move markets.

“America is the global hegemon,” Dimon continued, “and the free world wants us to be strong.” But he warned that Americans have been lulled into “a false sense of security,” made complacent by years of peacetime prosperity, outsourcing, and digital convenience:

We need to build a permanent, long-term, realistic strategy for the future of America — economic growth, fiscal policy, industrial policy, foreign policy. We need to educate our citizens. We need to take control of our economic destiny.

This isn’t a partisan appeal — it’s a sobering wake-up call. Because our economy and military readiness are not separate issues. They are deeply intertwined.

Dimon isn’t alone in raising concerns. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt has warned that China has already overtaken the U.S. in key defense technologies — hypersonic missiles, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence to mention a few. Retired military leaders continue to highlight our shrinking shipyards and dwindling defense manufacturing base.

Even the dollar, once assumed untouchable, is under pressure as BRICS nations work to undermine its global dominance. Dimon, notably, has said this effort could succeed if the U.S. continues down its current path.

So what does this all mean?

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mphillips007 via iStock/Getty Images

It means we are living in a moment of stunning fragility — culturally, economically, and militarily. It means we can no longer afford to confuse digital distractions with real resilience.

It means the future belongs to nations that understand something we’ve forgotten: Strength isn’t built on slogans or algorithms. It’s built on steel, energy, sovereignty, and trust.

And at the core of that trust is you, the citizen. Not the influencer. Not the bureaucrat. Not the lobbyist. At the core is the ordinary man or woman who understands that freedom, safety, and prosperity require more than passive consumption. They require courage, clarity, and conviction.

We need to stop assuming someone else will fix it. The next crisis — whether military, economic, or cyber — will not politely pause for our political dysfunction to sort itself out. It will demand leadership, unity, and grit.

And that begins with looking reality in the eye. We need to stop talking about things that don’t matter and cut to the chase: The U.S. is in a dangerously fragile position, and it’s time to rebuild and refortify — from the inside out.

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American families thrived under Trump’s tax plan — don’t kill it



As families faced a 20% spike in inflation under President Joe Biden, it’s no surprise that a strong majority of voters oppose new tax increases.

According to new polling from the Independent Women’s Forum, 79% of likely voters in the 2026 midterm elections support extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. That includes 80% of seniors, 78% of women, and 78% of independent voters.

The American people desire a simpler, fairer tax system.

Across all demographics, women voiced strong support for keeping the tax cuts in place. A majority agreed that Congress should act to stop individual income tax rates from rising in January 2026.

While inflation has begun to fall under President Trump, including last month’s slowest core inflation rate in nearly four years, more action is needed to keep prices moving downward.

Two-thirds of voters agree that now is not the time to raise taxes. That includes 65% of women and 70% of voters ages 18 to 34, who say high prices and high interest rates make additional tax increases unacceptable.

Tax cuts boosted incomes

The results speak for themselves. By 2019, median household income reached a record high of $68,703. That same year, 4.2 million Americans — many in female-headed households — rose out of poverty, bringing the national poverty rate to a record low.

A major factor was the drop in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Workers, who often shoulder the burden of corporate taxes, saw immediate gains. In response to the rate cut, many companies invested directly in their employees by raising wages, issuing bonuses, expanding benefits, funding job training programs, and creating new positions.

These changes suggest the tax law not only supported American families but also helped drive job growth and a stronger economy.

George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen reported in July — more than six years after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act took effect — that as a result of the law, “Total tangible corporate investment went up by about 11%” and “there has been a long-run increase in GDP of 0.9% — a substantial sum in an economy of more than $27 trillion.”

Small businesses thrive

Small businesses are the backbone of the U.S. economy. These "pass-through" businesses — such as sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S-corporations — are taxed at individual income tax rates. They employ nearly half of the American workforce and represent almost 44% of America’s gross domestic product.

Before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, some small businesses filing under the individual income tax code faced tax rates as high as 39.6%. Less than a year after the law’s enactment, the National Federation of Independent Business’s small-business optimism index hit the highest level ever recorded during its 45-year history. The previous record was set during Ronald Reagan’s tenure.

Now, small businesses face a looming challenge: The 20% small business deduction expires at the end of this year, which could significantly increase their tax burden. This deduction was designed to ease tax burdens on small and midsized businesses just as C-corporations benefited from the corporate tax rate cut.

Tax cuts help people and small businesses. As demonstrated after the 2017 tax cuts, extending them will ease inflationary pressures by lowering business costs, raising wages, and strengthening workers’ ability to withstand economic shocks.

The voters have spoken

Our polling found 59% of likely voters — including 77% of Trump voters — agree that “The 2017 tax cuts contributed to lower prices for shoppers before inflation kicked up in 2021.” This view resonated with young voters particularly, with 64% of likely voters ages 18 to 34 in agreement. This sentiment may explain the notable shift among younger voters toward Trump during the 2024 presidential election.

The American people desire a simpler, fairer tax system, and enacting sensible reforms, extensions, and updates to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will do just that.

The timing, public sentiment, data, and legal pathway are aligned. It’s time for Congress to pass additional tax reforms for America.

GOP’s growth meal: Appetizers ease regs, main course drives jobs



If policymakers want strong results, history and economic reality identify small businesses as the catalyst for growth. As a new Republican Congress and the incoming Trump administration view their menu of options, it’s imperative they view things from an appetizer and main-course perspective. The main course is bonus depreciation and access to capital, and the appetizers are reducing regulatory burdens, taming government overreach, lowering energy costs, and finding skilled and qualified workers.

The new Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress must serve up the appetizers and main course to fuel new record growth. Here’s what that meal might look like.

The appetizers

The increase in onerous regulations imposed by local, state, and federal governments is generating louder, justified complaints from small businesses. By April 2024, the cost of federal regulations had ballooned to $1.47 trillion. These rising costs are stifling small businesses. According to the October 2024 jobs report and downward revisions in new job creation, employment is weakening across the U.S. economy.

Industries are feeling the regulatory squeeze, and small businesses are suffering — especially in the wooden pallet industry. Ninety percent of all goods in the United States come into contact with a wooden pallet at some point. Regulatory burdens on the forest-products industry, such as reduced availability or higher costs of environmental permits, directly lower the supply of wood and increase its cost. And because wood pallets are manufactured, businesses in this sector must navigate OSHA oversight, air-quality permits, and trucking-related regulations. Customer-related rules, such as the Food Safety Modernization Act, also pass additional costs to pallet manufacturers.

If President Trump and congressional Republicans implement a comprehensive strategy, they could ignite a surge in economic growth the likes of which we’ve never seen.

Easing regulations would help small businesses lower their costs, enabling many to reinvest those savings in new plants, equipment, and workers.

The Trump administration should aggressively reduce the costly regulatory burdens on small businesses through executive actions. These actions should include initiatives to lower energy costs, which would further reduce expenses for small businesses. For manufacturing companies, lower costs would allow them to redeploy capital toward modernizing plants and fostering innovation.

Businesses, particularly small businesses, are struggling to attract new workers. Increased investment in career and technical education at the federal and state levels is essential. Such investment will help create future pipelines of skilled, motivated, and qualified workers.

The tooling and machining industry, which includes thousands of small to medium-sized precision machining manufacturers, serves a wide range of sectors, including aerospace, ordnance, defense, medical, space, electronics and semiconductors, oil and gas, automotive, and more. The lack of a skilled and qualified workforce remains the top challenge and limitation for precision machining.

The main course

The pathway to long-term economic and jobs growth is permanent write-offs for capital expenditures that include both plants and equipment.

To jump-start growth, a 100% bonus provision for plants and equipment for the first year followed by a consistent allowance for plants and equipment in the following years is essential. A heightened level of capital investment gets factories moving, makes small businesses more competitive, and drives higher employment levels and long-term growth.

In a “2 Way Community” conversation with Mark Halperin, Scott Bessent, founder and chief investment officer of Key Square Group and Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Treasury Department, indicated that “100% expensing for equipment is on the table as part of the extension of the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Job.” He also expressed support for “a limited life for structures that can also be expensed by 100%.”

Small businesses in the landscaping and fertilizer industries, for example, would be in a better position to invest in newer technologies and expand their production and distribution capacities.

Small businesses also have increasing capital requirements associated with the drive to automation, the high costs of machinery, and the need for research and development. To remain competitive, small businesses must also have an R&D tax credit available to them. Small businesses operating in the crane, rigging, and heavy transport sector will be able to invest in new cranes and other equipment and have the capacity to grow their businesses.

Every small business must have access to capital. New legislative and regulatory efforts must increase access to capital through streamlined small-business lending. Because 38% of small businesses that fail do so due to lack of capital, there must also be a renewed commitment to community banks, which are essential for small businesses to access capital. Bessent has also expressed support for this idea.

Making the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and adding these additional incentives will change the game and launch a new wave of economic growth. Several key provisions are already expiring or will be phased out at the end of 2025. Expensing for business investments, research and experimentation deductibility, pass-through deductions, and a reduction of the estate tax concludes on December 31, 2025. These are important and should be continued.

Small businesses have historically driven economic recovery and prosperity. If President Trump and congressional Republicans implement a comprehensive strategy, they could ignite a surge in small-business activity and economic growth the likes of which we’ve never seen.

Entrepreneurs need certainty, not higher taxes, to succeed



As lawmakers return to Washington, D.C., after a long and hard-fought election season, they will begin to set priorities for the upcoming session. The economy and inflation remain the top concerns for Americans and small businesses. We need to make sure we embrace policies that help them thrive. Extending the 2017 tax law is a crucial step toward providing small businesses with the security they need.

The 2017 tax law transformed the small business landscape, enabling owners to reinvest more earnings into their operations. This spurred job creation, investments in new equipment, and the launch of new ventures. By lowering the tax burden on small businesses, the law fueled historic wage growth and brought unemployment to record lows.

Lawmakers can either increase uncertainty by raising taxes or negotiate in good faith to build on the 2017 reforms.

Policymakers should always aim to support economic growth and stability. The road map Congress laid out six years ago remains clear. Neither Congress nor the next president should undo those reforms so soon, especially while high inflation and interest rates strain entrepreneurs. Lawmakers must assess potential outcomes carefully. If there is no agreement on lowering rates, why not maintain the current tax levels instead?

During my time at the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Office of Entrepreneurial Development, we helped thousands of entrepreneurs nationwide start and grow their businesses. Washington’s economic policies played a crucial role in our success. Today, I worry that lawmakers are too eager to raise taxes on small businesses instead of exploring ways to help entrepreneurs invest more in their employees.

The Tax Foundation’s latest research shows that avoiding corporate tax increases could boost U.S. economic output by 1.7%, wages by 1.5%, and employment by 381,000 full-time jobs. These gains would come at about half the cost of the Inflation Reduction Act’s green energy tax credits and the CHIPS and Science Act’s tax credits, grants, and spending programs.

I understand where our new incumbents and candidates in Congress are coming from. Most were not involved in negotiating the 2017 law, and many believe that reshaping America’s tax code will fight inequality for generations. The reality, however, is that the taxes Washington is considering raising will likely harm the middle class the most. A narrow-minded “higher taxes” approach won’t solve America’s spending issues or help us compete in the global economy of the future.

As the next Congress debates whether to maintain or raise the corporate tax rate, we face a critical decision. Lawmakers can either increase uncertainty by raising taxes or negotiate in good faith to build on the 2017 reforms. Allowing entrepreneurs to reinvest in their workforce will benefit the economy far more than higher taxes.

Politicians must remember that voters have a real choice in deciding who should pay taxes and how much. By reviewing data from the past six years, lawmakers should recognize the success of the 2017 tax policies. Maintaining the current tax rate and extending key provisions would deliver the greatest long-term benefits to the economy and the middle class.

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Watch: Mark Levin educates Marxist Democrats on basic economics



The left desperately needs a lesson in economics, and Mark Levin is here to supply it — because Marxists like Robert Reich are failing to do the job.

Reich claims that the “crises” Republicans are concerned about are “totally made up” in order to “distract from the real crises facing Americans” like “growing concentration of wealth” and the “worsening climate crisis.”

“I’m tired of this Marxist claptrap with class warfare,” Levin says, before destroying Reich’s argument.

“According to the Marxists,” he begins, “there’s only one pie. And the more somebody takes out of that pie, the less pie you have to eat. That’s not how market capitalism works.”

“Under capitalism,” he continues, “the pie gets bigger and bigger and bigger except when these masterminds Bernie Sanders, Biden, Reich jump in. And they try and decide who will and who will not succeed.”

This is precisely why the attack on entire industries like automobiles — by “Democratic socialists” like Biden — is going to hurt the economy more than help it.

“The more the government rules over the economy, the harder it is for the economy to grow. And sometimes it begins to shrink,” Levin explains.

Leftists also seem to operate under the belief that there is no middle class in this country.

“We have a massive middle class in this country. Why? Because the government dictated it? No. Because the Industrial Revolution,” Levin says, noting that the Industrial Revolution “was the greatest period of economic growth mankind has ever experienced.”

“Ever since, the Marxists, the Democrats, have done everything they can to it. They hate capitalism,” he adds.


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