'Something historic': CNN analyst GOBSMACKED by how Vance polls against Nikki Haley, others



The 2028 presidential election is 34 months away, and in that time, there are sure to be plenty of surprises. There are, however, already clear signs of who may ultimately make a bid for the White House — and how they might fare in the primaries.

CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, expressed surprise on Monday by how Vice President JD Vance performed in a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters against former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nimarata "Nikki" Haley, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and other prospects.

'The rest of the field are like going around in go-karts.'

Enten alluded to prediction market odds indicating that Vance is "running well ahead of the field" and that "nobody else is even close."

Polymarket puts Vance's chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 at 54%. The site has the chances of the runner-up, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, securing the nomination at 9%. This high confidence in Vance's chances is similarly expressed on the PredictIt site as well as on the federally regulated prediction market Kalshi, which suggests Vance and Rubio have a 48% and 10% chance of securing the nomination, respectively.

"JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are like going around in go-karts at this point," said Enten. "That's really what we are looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time."

Enten noted that Vance's staggering early lead reflected in the prediction markets "is not coming out of nowhere" and directed CNN talking head Sara Sidner's attention to a poll conducted in October by the University of New Hampshire.

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Photo by Caylo Seals/Getty Images

The poll found that among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, 51% said they would vote for Vance; 9% said they would vote for Haley; 8% said they would vote for Gabbard; 5% said they would vote for Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders; 4% would vote for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.); and 3% each would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Calgary-born Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who appears poised to run as the kind of Republican President Donald Trump crushed in the 2016 and 2024 GOP primaries, proved unable to capture 1% in the poll.

"Take a look here! JD Vance at 51%!" said Enten. "The next closest is Nikki Haley, who's at 9 — who's at 9! I mean, what is that? That's 42 points ahead of the pack."

"There's a reason why he's such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are, you're going to be the Republican nominee for president," added Enten.

When asked by Sidner whether it was rare to see an early lead of this magnitude, Enten said, "I looked back. Hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president — JD Vance is the only one."

"JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time," continued Enten.

While Vance's early lead is unprecedented, the last five sitting vice presidents who ran for president all became their parties' nominees.

A straw poll was also taken earlier this month at Turning Point USA's annual AmericaFest, where widowed CEO Erika Kirk endorsed the vice president.

Blake Neff, the producer of "The Charlie Kirk Show," noted that Vance won the AmFest straw poll "by more than Donald Trump won the 2024 one we did two years ago." Whereas 82.6% of respondents previously said they wanted to see Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee, 84.2% of respondents said they wanted to see Vance as their nominee in 2028.

The UNH poll that found a majority of likely GOP voters support Vance likewise found that there is a much closer race developing across the aisle.

Among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, 19% of respondents say they would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; 15% would vote for California Gov. Gavin Newsom; 14% would vote for New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; 11% would vote for failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris; 8% would vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.); and 6% would vote for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

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Voters aren’t thinking — they’re SURVIVING: The new political divide



America isn't divided by politics. According to Brent Buchanan, it’s actually divided by biology.

Buchanan makes the case that voters no longer make decisions logically but emotionally, driven by something hardwired into human behavior.

“I began looking at academic research on what actually drives human behavior, specifically when it relates to voting. And the question goes back to, ‘What drives human behavior, period?’” he tells BlazeTV host Steve Deace on the “Steve Deace Show.”

And Buchanan’s answer to that question, while complicated, is actually quite simple. At the end of the day, it is survival that informs our decision-making.


“It doesn’t matter if somebody’s voting, buying a car, getting married. It is all this biological fact that our brains were built to conserve energy. And the least caloric way that we can take in, process information, and make decisions is emotionally through our subconscious, through the inside part of our brain, not through the prefrontal cortex,” he explains.

“It makes a lot of sense ... biologically, we were built for survival. And everything we do is based around survival. And even though we’re not being chased by wild animals or going without food for days or weeks on end as the whole population used to do a long time ago, those innate senses and that biology is still with us,” he continues.

“I mean God created us for a reason, with a purpose, and it was to survive, and it was to procreate and to spread His gospel,” he says, adding, “And all of those are biologically built into us.”

Deace agrees with Buchanan, pointing out that during the election cycle last year, “the most effective message” was the Trump ad that read, “Kamala Harris is for they/them. Trump is for you.”

“The most extreme candidate tends to lose. And why does the most extreme candidate tend to lose? Because they’re viewed as most threatening to somebody’s safety, security, or belief system. So that was a wonderful way to cast Kamala Harris as way more extreme of the two candidates running for president,” Buchanan responds.

“Secondarily, it plays into in-group, out-group factors. That also goes back to our survival instincts, where if somebody is on the out-group, they are your enemy,” he continues.

“So with a lot of young men, a lot of non-white voters, they saw that message, and they didn’t say, ‘I’m making my decision on this election based on the transgender issue.’ But that issue became a proxy for extremity,” he says, adding, “That is what won Donald Trump the election.”

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'We're not chopping nuts': ShamWow guy files to run for Congress — as a Republican



Offer Vince Shlomi, the 61-year-old Israeli-born pitchman whose work selling absorbent towels on late-night TV gained him recognizability as the "ShamWow guy," has filed to run for Congress as a Republican.

According to the Texas GOP's list of filing applications, Shlomi has filed an application to unseat Republican incumbent Rep. John Carter, who has represented Texas' 31st congressional district since 2003 thanks to a series of landslide electoral victories.

'Hopefully I won't make another mistake.'

"The woke churches are after our kids' nuts," Shlomi said in a video where he can be seen standing outside a structure painted in the LGBT imperial colors. "Not no more. We're not chopping nuts. You're going to love your nuts with the ShamWow guy."

The allusion to nuts is both a play on LGBT activists' support for child genital mutilation and the "Slap Chop" infomercial wherein Shlomi states, "With Slap Chop, you're going to love my nuts," prior to dicing a bowl full of almonds and walnuts.

Shlomi, an apparent Los Angeles resident who serves as president and CEO of the TV marketing company Square One Entertainment, told Fox News Digital on Sunday that he was motivated to run for office by a desire to "destroy wokeism" and as a tribute to assassinated conservative Charlie Kirk, whom he referred to as the original "woke buster."

In a recent parody music video titled "Woke Busters," Shlomi signaled opposition to men in girls' locker rooms, child sex changes, the "Me Too" movement, identity politics, and cancel culture.

While Shlomi's new role as culture warrior might find resonance with voters, he may have to address on the campaign trail some of the skeletons crowding his closet.

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Vince Offer's mugshot following his 2009 arrest in Miami Beach, Florida. Photo by Kypros/Getty Images

For instance, Shlomi was arrested and slapped with a felony battery charge in February 2009 for allegedly pummeling a prostitute at a hotel in Miami Beach, Florida.

According to the arrest affidavit, Shlomi kissed a hooker he had met earlier at a nightclub. Shlomi told police that the hooker bit his tongue and would not let go, so he punched her in the face several times. The prostitute reportedly suffered facial fractures and numerous lacerations. Prosecutors ultimately dropped the case.

Two years later, Shlomi's former personal assistant sued him in a separate case, alleging he stalked and emotionally abused her, made unwanted sexual advances, and at one stage offered to buy her eggs, reported CBS News.

In 2013, Shlomi told NBC News that he was cleaning up his act, stating, "People understand you make mistakes in life."

"Hopefully I won't make another mistake," he added.

Shlomi has reportedly not yet formalized his intention to run with the Federal Election Commission.

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Explaining Mamdani’s appeal to the young, with polling



It’s a sad week for the de facto capital of the world, New York City. The epicenter of American finance, media, and dynamism now enters a self-imposed trajectory of decline.

But those of us on the populist right should not merely shake our heads and bemoan the extremism of Zohran Mamdani, frightening though it is. Instead, we must understand his appeal, so that we might effectively counter his un-American ideas and continue to build on our 2024 triumph by earning further big gains nationally among young voters.

We have much to learn from Mamdani, even though he is a dangerous Marxist. Establishment Republicans have no effective answer to this kind of populism.

Polling shows the pathway to that success.

First, the great news. Young voters have swung massively to the right over the last three presidential election cycles. President Trump won young men in 2024, and overall, voters 35 and under shifted materially from a +37% preference for the Democrats in 2016 to only a +13% preference in 2024, cutting the young adult margin by two-thirds in just over eight years. It represents a massive macro shift.

In addition, a new national poll of 2,100 voters ages 18-25 shows a substantial rejection of Democrats’ radicalism on key social issues, especially transgenderism and free speech. Simultaneously, young voters express extreme frustration with the current economy, creating a clear opening that Mamdani drove a campaign truck right through.

So, backed by data, here are the three lanes of success that Mamdani exploited.

‘Affordability’ is key

Even though all of his Marxist answers are wrong and immoral, Zohran is laser-focused on the issue that matters most to voters, especially younger ones. Most young citizens have not benefited from the massive run-up in asset prices in recent years. Without substantial holdings of equities or real estate, they struggle to afford the staples of life amid sky-high costs. Even worse, the job market got substantially tougher for young adults, adding even more angst.

These voters correctly blamed the Democrats for the pain of Bidenomics, but that anger has now shifted over to Republicans, fair or not.

Right now, per TIPP Insights polling, only 24% of young adults rate Trump’s performance on the economy as “good” or “excellent,” while 54% rate it as “poor” or “unacceptable.” On inflation, using letter grades, only 6% of young independents give the president an A, while 44% deliver an F.

Mamdani smartly dove into this issue. All his proposed solutions will only make inflation worse, of course, from “free” public transit to lavish benefits for illegal aliens. But regardless, he fixated on what matters to voters, especially young ones.

Media skills

After watching Mamdani throughout the campaign, it’s clear he hates the founding principles and history of the United States. He exemplifies how America’s immigration system — even its lawful pathways — too often imports people who reject the nation’s heritage rather than embrace it.

That said, as a media professional, I can only respect his acumen in front of the cameras.

In this new digital age, which President Trump helped create, successful politicians must be able to perform effectively. Mamdani exudes charisma and likeability. His youth and enthusiasm captivated voters, especially those in the streaming/TikTok spaces.

Media savvy combined with lots of ludicrous promises of freebies is a pretty powerful approach in this populist age. Young people are especially receptive to the heavy use of new/alternative media. TIPP Insights shows that only 31% of independent young adults have positive sentiment for legacy media, and only 34% of young women.

Focus on home

Perhaps the most compelling moment of the campaign for Mamdani was during the July debate, when all candidates were asked where their first foreign visit would be as mayor of New York. All of them said Israel, with Ukraine thrown in as well. But Mamdani gave a truly “New York First” answer instead, one that might well have been uttered by a MAGA partisan. He said, “I would stay in New York City.”

That answer clearly appeals to young voters, who are decidedly non-interventionist abroad. For example, a whopping 69% of young men think we “intervene too much in foreign conflicts.” Only 26% of young adults think the United States should remain involved in Ukraine if Putin and Zelenskyy cannot reach a settlement soon.

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Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

That non-interventionism seeps over into a very negative view of Israel among young voters. Survey results found that only 25% of them have a positive view of Israel, versus 52% negative. Among young independents, only 18% have a positive view of Israel.

Therefore, Mamdani probably did not generate the blowback he deserved for extremist postures, such as embracing a pro-terror jihadi who was implicated, but unindicted, in the 1993 World Trade Center bombings.

We have much to learn from Mamdani, even though he is a dangerous Marxist. Establishment Republicans have no effective answer to this kind of populism, because their default is always “cut taxes for the wealthy and go to war.”

The MAGA movement has a very different vision — one that can appeal to reasonable young people in increasing numbers — to continue this patriotic, populist surge for decades to come.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

Perjuring manslaughterer who killed a soldier over an alleged racist comment wins election in Maine



Sergeant Derek Rogers, a 22-year veteran of the Canadian military who played trombone for the Canadian Central Command Band, took his wife of 20 years on a trip to Maine in 2002. It was the last trip they would take together because a pair of siblings of Sioux descent savagely beat Rogers to death while he was taking a stroll on the beach near the cottage his family rented.

On Tuesday, radicals in Bangor, Maine, elected one of Rogers' killers, Angela Walker, to city council.

'That's my past.'

The 2,231 voters who cast ballots for Walker and the leftist group that endorsed her, Food and Medicine, were evidently willing to give her a pass for her history of violence and deception.

After all, it's public record that Walker killed Rogers — a soldier known for his charity and devotion to the Salvation Army — participating in his bludgeoning and lethal force-feeding by sand, according to investigators. It's also a matter of public record that she attempted to blame the killing on an innocent woman named Aimee Pelletier, who investigators later determined had not been at the scene.

Walker and her brother, Benjamin Humphrey, were originally charged with murder following the discovery of Rogers' body by a fisherman on July 31, 2002.

When Humphrey pleaded guilty to manslaughter the following year, the victim's sister, Lorna Simard, said, "I don't feel that any plea bargain is justice," reported the Associated Press.

Simard was ultimately denied the full measure of justice twice as Walker also managed to strike a plea deal.

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Staff photo by Gregory Rec/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images

Walker pleaded guilty in 2003 to perjury as well as to killing Rogers in exchange for a reduced charge of manslaughter.

Robert Crowley, then-justice of the Maine Superior Court, reportedly sentenced Walker to 10 years in prison and gave her a five-year suspended sentence for committing perjury.

While Walker claimed that Rogers prompted her violent reaction by allegedly calling her a "squaw" — a claim Rogers' family suggested was utter nonsense — Crowley emphasized the victim's innocence, noting, "He didn't do anything to contribute to his death, yet he lost his life."

During her successful political campaign, Walker told the Bangor Daily News, "One of the big reasons that I want to run is because I feel like, with my lived experience and the work that I’ve done in a few different agencies in the area, that I can bring concerns of community members to City Council."

The same perjurer who apparently helped stuff sand down a soldier's throat until he died added that she hopes to "be the voice for people that can’t speak up or don’t speak up."

As for Rogers' horrific slaying, Walker said, "That's my past. I don't live there anymore, and I'm a different person."

Former Bangor City Council chairwoman Sarah Nichols was among those who endorsed Walker, claiming "Angela has achieved positive results in her own recovery and has played a key role in projects that connect many people to crucial resources, supporting their recovery success."

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JD Vance's half-brother becomes another casualty of Tuesday's electoral bloodbath, losing Ohio race in a landslide



Cory Bowman, Vice President JD Vance's 36-year-old half-brother, decided to run for mayor of Cincinnati after watching President Donald Trump's second inauguration. He told Politico earlier this year, "I was just really inspired, because I look up to my brother not just as a political model but as a role model."

Bowman's stated goal was to address the city's "deteriorating infrastructure, unsafe streets, and misallocated funds."

'Government can't fix everything.'

Evidently the residents of Cincinnati, who haven't had a Republican mayor since 1971, weren't ready for change.

According to the unofficial totals from the Hamilton County Board of Elections, the Democrat incumbent, Mayor Aftab Pureval, beat Bowman by over 55 percentage points — 78.21% to 21.76%. Bowman qualified for the general election after securing only 13% of the vote in the May primary.

"Pray for our leadership," Bowman said after losing the race. "We have to pray for our city. We want them to win because — I've said this since the beginning of the campaign — we cannot copy and paste national politics when it comes to these city elections. We cannot just divide ourselves more and more when it comes to these cities. We want our cities to succeed."

Although Bowman made abundantly clear that he is proud of his family, particularly his older half-brother, he focused his messaging during the campaign on the needs of the city. Pureval, on the other hand, appeared keen to make the election a referendum on the Trump administration, stating during the Oct. 9 mayoral debate that Bowman "represents MAGA" and "you either support the Trump agenda or you don't."

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Photographer: Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images

"You can't run for mayor and not be concerned with the federal employees who are getting fired, not be concerned with the racializing of our own public safety challenges here in our community," said the Democrat mayor, who underscored in May that Cincinnati is a sanctuary city and should remain "a global destination for top-tier talent."

Despite previously smearing his opponent and Bowman's supporters as "MAGA extremists," Pureval — who first assumed office in January 2022 — indicated in his victory speech that Bowman was "very classy" in how he handled the defeat and signaled an interest in possible collaboration down the road.

Bowman was one of several Republicans who experienced humiliating defeats on Tuesday.

Winsome Earle-Sears, Virginia's Republican lieutenant governor, lost her state's gubernatorial election by double digits to Democrat radical Abigail Spanberger; Republican strategist John Reid lost the election for Virginia's lieutenant governor to Democrat Virginia state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi; and Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli lost the New Jersey gubernatorial race to Democrat candidate Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Bowman wrapped up his concession speech with a Christian message, stating, "Government can't fix everything, but you know what can fix everything is our relationship with Jesus Christ. And that's why I want to encourage anybody watching, as well, if you've never given your heart to Jesus, if you've never even considered it, try it."

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