DeSantis and Gillum head to a recount; Rubio blasts Broward election officials

The Florida gubernatorial race is officially headed for a recount, as late votes have poured in, narrowing the margin by which Republican Ron DeSantis leads Democrat Andrew Gillum.

The late votes are coming from Broward and Palm Beach counties, the Sun-Sentinel reports. According to the latest vote tally from the Florida secretary of state's office, DeSantis leads Gillum by just 0.47 percent. Florida state law requires a mandatory machine recount if the margin between two candidates is less than 0.5 percent.

Gillum conceded the race to DeSantis Tuesday evening, but since the additional ballots have been counted his campaign has released a statement indicating it will seek a recount if necessary.

Senator Marco Rubio, R-Fla., blasted Broward County election officials in a series of tweets Thursday, accusing Democrats of trying to "steal" the election.

DeSantis currently leads Gillum by 38,515 votes. Likewise, Republican Senate candidate Rick Scott leads his opponent, incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., by roughly 22,000 votes. The Senate race is also headed for a recount.

Historically, election recounts shift vote tallies by hundreds of votes, not tens of thousands. In the 2008 Minnesota race, Democrat Al Franken trailed by 212 votes when a recount was called. After the recount, he won the race by 312 votes. In the most famous election recount in recent memory, during the 2000 presidential election, the margin between Republican George W. Bush and Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore was 1,784 votes, with Bush leading. After two recounts, Bush's lead was reduced to just 327 votes, and the case ultimately went to the Supreme Court.

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2018 Election: Stalemate

There wasn’t a blue wave, but there might’ve been. Neither was there a red wave, but there might’ve been. So instead, after a year of meltdowns and sideshows, all we got was this lousy stalemate.

As I’ve been saying for a while now, forget all the window dressing and just do the math. We are not a polarized people as much as we are a balkanized one. The divisions are so entrenched culturally now that the list of persuadables continues to shrink. So with most of the contested Senate races taking place within Trump’s 2016 America, and many of the contested House races taking place within Hillary’s 2016 America, we got the results we probably should’ve just predicted all along.

But that didn’t have to be the case. Both parties squandered an opportunity here.

The Democrats should have capitalized better on the unpopularity of a president who thinks restraint is a river in Egypt. Except the word “restraint” isn’t even in their own vocabulary at all. So instead of articulating an alternative governing vision opposite a president with an approval rating below the Mendoza Line and a GOP Congress less popular than toe jam, they paved the road to hell with cruel intentions: calling everyone who dares to disagree a racist, literally Hitler, and only stopping along the way to attempt to destroy the life of a Supreme Court nominee they didn’t like. Labeling Brett Kavanaugh a gang rapist based on flimsier evidence than Rosie O’Donnell’s infamous 9/11 conspiracy theories. Or flimsier than Michael Avenatti’s credibility. Or flimsier than Stormy Daniels’ evening wear. Each of whom were also the face of the Democratic Party during portions of this election cycle. Don’t look now, but every Democrat senator who voted to character-assassinate Kavanaugh lost, and the only one who didn’t (Joe Manchin) won. That’s not a coincidence.

Meanwhile, Republicans should have coasted on the strongest economy since the dot-com boom 20 years ago. Except they committed the worst act of political betrayal since “read my lips” when they broke a seven-year promise to repeal Obamacare. Not to mention their open-borders leadership’s disdain for President Trump’s popular immigration enforcement policies. Then there’s the president’s Twitter feed, whose purpose most days seems to be an intentional exercise in alienating as many suburban women voters as possible — when the president’s not using it to grind his personal political axes rather than promoting his positive economic message, that is.

This is why we didn’t get a wave. We got a stalemate, an election that is almost a replica of the one we just had in 2016. And one we’re likely to see again in 2020 unless one of these parties can answer these questions:

1) Can Democrats, the party that claims it’s for diversity, show that it’s truly willing to accommodate dissent? Or will “you will be made to care” become “you better believe you will %4@#! be made to care when we’re in power since you’re literally Hitler?” For if so, the president will continue to exploit the justifiable fears of voters who might be friendlier to Democrats’ economic message if it didn’t come with the hefty price tag of cultural Marxism.

2) Can the president practice a modicum of adulting, which might give those suburban voters he’s alienating permission to praise him for the policy decisions he’s making that are making their lives better? Or will his random ego-in-motion act continue to show its backside on social media daily?

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Uh-oh: Florida Senate race heads to a recount

The race for U.S. Senate in Florida will have a mandatory recount, with the margin between Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson within half a percent.

"We are proceeding to a recount," Nelson said Wednesday in a statement.

Scott leads Nelson by roughly 35,000 votes out of over 8.1 million votes cast. State law requires a recount when candidates are within one half-point of each other.

Scott declared victory Tuesday night.

Buckle up, folks. Florida recounts are INFAMOUS.

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10 observations on the failed blue wave

Democrats essentially won a very technical election last night, fueled by several unique factors giving them the advantage in the House this election cycle. These factors were absent in the Senate races and will likely be absent in many of the 2020 House races as well as in the presidential race. There are potential warning signs for Republicans, but a lot of opportunities if they learn the right lessons.

Let’s delve into the key observations. I will try to elaborate on each point in the coming days:

1) Not bad historically for the GOP: It looks like Democrats will pick up roughly 32-34 House seats and flip control of the House with a 10-seat majority. But Republicans picked up three or four Senate seats. Historically, the number of House seats lost is in line with the sort of backlash the incumbent party incurs in a midterm, especially when they control all branches of government. The fact that they were able to win in the Senate and buck the trend is due to the polarized map working in their favor, but also shows that this was not a historic repudiation of Trump. Obama lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats in 2010. Republicans lost five governorships last night (Obama lost six), but some of that was due to bad candidate recruitment and overexposure in blue states. They lost seven legislative chambers, not nearly as many as Democrats did and not bad considering the high-water mark they were occupying headed into the election.

2) This was a realignment, not a wave, even though Republicans were on the short end of it in the House and the better end in the Senate. Republicans reached a high-water mark of power in a lot of House seats, governorships, and state legislatures following the 2010, 2014, and 2016 victories. What we saw last night was the natural blowback against the incumbent party, mixed with the completion of the realignment of suburban-rural districts to Republicans and suburban-urban districts to Democrats. Ultimately, the red areas got redder, the blue ones got bluer, and Republicans were on the short end of the battle for swing voters in a midterm. Thus, in the Senate, they won red states (but lost Nevada), but they could not hold enough House seats in suburban territory. There are warning signs for both parties in this dynamic. Republicans are losing in suburban Houston, Charleston, and even Oklahoma City. But Democrats are losing the last of the FDR coalition of blue-collar workers in the traditional Democrat rural areas.

3) Money matters: Unlike previous wave elections, such as 1994, 2006, and 2010, money was a dominant factor. Democrats had the unprecedented advantage of outspending Republicans, often two or three to one, not just in the toss-ups but in a number of relatively safe GOP districts. This is how they put so many districts in play. There’s no question that without the financial disadvantage, people like Dave Brat would have won re-election. Remember, this financial edge will disappear in 2020, when Democrats will have a presidential candidate sucking up all the oxygen and money, not to mention a very open and competitive presidential primary that will drain funds. The bottom line is that money matters a lot, which is ironic given the supposed concern of Democrats about money in politics. There is no way O’ Rourke would have done so well in Texas had he not spent as much money on the Senate seat as presidential candidates used to spend on national races until fairly recently.

4) The top of the ballot killed the GOP in critical states: For voters who hate Trump (and their hate is the primary factor driving their turnout), this election was essentially a presidential election. For all intents and purposes, Trump was on the ballot. We incurred all the liabilities of Trump’s realignment in that sense. But we left too much of his benefit on the table in many parts of the country. Where we had a unified message with good candidates who ran as conservatives and motivated the base, such as Ron DeSantis, we overcame the predicted blue wave. But in states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, New York, and Illinois, Republicans were comatose at the top of the ticket and Trump himself wasn’t on the ballot. Thus, while the blue turnout was in full force as if it were a presidential election, Trump voters (or suburban voters who think Democrats are too radical) were stuck with no options at the top of the ticket. Republicans lost 12 seats just in those four states alone. The wipeout in those states would not happen with Trump on the ballot, assuming his strength remains roughly where it is today. I would argue that had Trump been on the ballot, Republicans would likely have held the House.

By my count, Republicans lost 16 of the 25 Hillary districts they held, but they also lost roughly an equal number of Trump districts. In other words, Democrats relied on the one-sided liability of Trump off the ballot, the financial edge, and anomalies at the top of the ticket to help win in areas they should lose in 2020. Also, remember that Republicans can now target a dozen other incumbent House Democrats in Trump districts in 2020. With Trump actually on the ballot, Republicans will further benefit from the realignment of blue-collar whites against those incumbents.

5) Nothing fundamentally changed for months: The contours of this election were already set within a few months after the last election. Once Trump’s personality became a problem with certain suburban voters and Republicans failed to enact an agenda to inspire them back into the fold, they lost those voters. This was evident in the polling as early as the spring of 2017 and was reflected in the special elections as well as the November 2017 Virginia local elections. The only thing that changed in the GOP’s favor is that its base, which was asleep during the special elections, ultimately came out in force. Some of that was inevitable, and some of it was turbocharged by Kavanaugh. I don’t think Republicans did anything in the past few weeks to fundamentally help or hurt their standing. This liability was baked into the cake a while back.

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Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz: Live Texas Senate election results

Tonight we find out if media hype and celebrity endorsements can win the Democrats a seat in the U.S. Senate in Texas.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is running for re-election in a closer-than-expected race against Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas. O’Rourke has made headlines for record fundraising and causing a surge of Democratic voter enthusiasm nationwide. He is, however, likely too liberal to win in Texas, as he supports Medicare for All, supports banning AR-15 rifles, and wants to impeach President Donald Trump.

Cruz has highlighted his record and run a steady campaign characterizing O’Rourke as out of touch with Texas’ conservative values. Polling has at times shown a close race, but Cruz has consistently led. A victory for O’Rourke would be a true upset in what was always a long-shot bid to oust Cruz from the U.S. Senate.

The polls close at 9:00 p.m. ET.

Click for live results.

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Andrew Gillum vs. Ron DeSantis: LIVE Florida gubernatorial election results

Voters in Florida have a rare clear choice between a rock-solid conservative and a democratic socialist for governor.

Former Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., left the United States Congress to run for governor and won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with President Donald Trump’s support. A founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, DeSantis is a full-spectrum conservative. He has made opposition to sanctuary city policies central to his campaign and has criticized his Democratic opponent for supporting policies that would ruin the booming Florida economy.

The Democratic nominee is Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum. Endorsed by socialist Bernie Sanders, Gillum wants to raise the Florida corporate tax rate and minimum wage, and he has made exorbitant promises to raise teacher salaries and expand Medicaid in Florida. Gillum supports a ban on assault weapons and wants to repeal Florida’s stand your ground law. He has ties to a radical far-left and anti-Semitic group, Dream Defenders, his mayoral office is under investigation by the FBI for corruption, and he has been criticized by DeSantis as anti-Israel and too liberal for the Sunshine State.

Polling has shown Gillum holding a consistent lead over DeSantis.

The polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET in the eastern part of the state and 8:00 p.m. ET in the panhandle.

Click for live results.

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Abigail Spanberger vs. Dave Brat: LIVE Virginia 7th Congressional District election results

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District is one of the most closely watched toss-up races in the country. If Democrats are going to win in a “Blue Wave,” this race will be one of the earliest indicators.

Incumbent Rep. Dave Brat, R-Va., is running for re-election in a district Republicans have held since 1971. When Brat was re-elected in 2016, he defeated his Democratic challenger by 15 points. A member of the House Freedom Caucus, Brat is most well known for his upset victory against sitting Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 Republican primary. He is a Ph.D. economist with one of the most conservative voting records in Congress.

The Democratic nominee is Abigail Spanberger, a retired CIA officer running as a moderate who is polling tightly against Brat. Spanberger has emphasized her national security credentials, made health care a top issue in her campaign, and criticized Brat for voting to repeal Obamacare.

Polling shows a significant shift in this district in the Democrats’ favor. The most recent New York Times/Sienna poll shows Brat leading Spanberger by only two points.

The polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Click for live results.

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Big 3 of election predictions all say Democrats likely to win the House

The three big election forecasters are all saying that Democrats are on the verge of winning control of the House of Representatives after today's midterm elections.

The final race ratings from the Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics each show Democrats well within striking distance of making Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speaker again.

The Cook Political Report rates 75 House seats as "competitive," with 70 of those seats currently held by Republican incumbents. House editor for the Cook Political Report David Wasserman writes that a "Red Exodus" is boosting the Democrats' chances: "Of Republicans' 41 open seats, 15 are rated as Toss Ups or worse, and another five are only in Lean Republican."

Just by winning all of the races at least "leaning" their way, Democrats would net 16 of the 23 seats they need for a majority. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they currently hold one Toss Up, Minnesota's 1st CD). Conversely, Republicans would likely need to win 23 of the 30 Toss Up races to keep their majority. That's not impossible, but it's very difficult.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver is giving Democrats an 86 percent chance of retaking the House. He stresses that even such a high chance does not mean Democrats are certain to take the House. It's possible for Republicans to keep their House majority, though unlikely.

Finally, University of Virginia Professor Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings project 229 seats leaning to the Democrats and 206 at least leaning to the Republicans.

Writing together, Sabato and Kyle Kondik warn that it is as likely they are underestimating the Republicans' chances as it is they are underestimating the Democrats' chances to blow out the GOP.

Our ratings changes leave 229 seats at least leaning to the Democrats and 206 at least leaning to the Republicans, so we are expecting the Democrats to pick up more than 30 seats (our precise ratings now show Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need). We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night. That said, it may be just as likely — or even more likely — that we’re understating the Democrats in the House. Many of our sources on both sides seemed to think the Democratic tally would be more like +35 to 40 (or potentially even higher) when we checked in with them over the weekend.

So do these projections mean that Democrats are certain to retake the House? Not at all. In 2016, President Donald Trump definitively demonstrated that the analysis of election forecasters isn't gospel truth. There is still a chance that Republicans can capitalize on the strong economy and that President Trump's strong position against illegal immigration rallies enough of his supporters to turn out and mitigate GOP losses.

But important factors are pointing to a strong position for the Democrats. The surest way to prevent that from happening, of course, is to vote — and take five conservatives with you.

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