Red wave incoming? GOP slated for 'very good' election outcome as crime vastly outweighs abortion for voters



The abortion hangover in a post-Roe v. Wade world is over.

According to CNN polling guru Harry Enten, all signs are suggesting that Republicans will have a "very good night" on Election Day next month.

What are the details?

Focusing on the issues of crime and abortion, Enten explained on "New Day" this week that voter interest in abortion spiked in May when it became clear that the Supreme Court would overturn Roe. Conversely, interest in crime sank.

But that trend has completely reversed itself just weeks before voters cast their ballots in the 2022 midterm elections.

"Around the time that Roe v. Wade was overturned in June, crime was just at 30% of all the searches between crime and abortion; abortion was at 70%. In May, again, abortion higher than crime. In July, it was basically tied, abortion slightly higher than crime. But look now in September: crime 71% to just 29% for abortion," Enten explained.

"That is basically back to the pre-Roe v. Wade overturning sort of baseline where we were back in April, where crime was making up 74% of the searches versus abortion at just 26%," he noted.

\u201cA new poll is raising questions about what issues voters care about the most. @ForecasterEnten joins us to break down the latest:\u201d
— New Day (@New Day) 1664893584

This is important because polls, like the new Monmouth University poll, show that crime is the second-most important issue to voters behind inflation.

And who do voters trust on the issue of crime? Republicans — overwhelmingly.

"Crime is basically the economy for Republicans," Enten said. "Democrats do not want to be in this ballpark. They want to talking about abortion, which is the main focus of most of their ads. So, the more voters care about crime, the worse it is for Democrats."

What will happen in November?

A recent Gallup poll that showed voters trust Republicans over Democrats to handle their most important issue by an 11-point margin. That difference, Enten said, is huge — and often precedes a red wave.

"Obviously, we're not sure what's going to happen this year, but in all other years or anywhere close to this [margin] — 46 Republican House seats won, 247, 230, 242 — and, of course, you just need 218 for a majority," Enten explained of previous elections.

"So, if this election looks anything like this and voters react in the way that they normally do, then Republicans are going to have a very good night come election night," he said.

Right on cue, NBC News reported Thursday that crime is making a difference in tight Senate races where Republicans stand to benefit.

CNN polling expert shows Dems are hemorrhaging support among black voters: 'That is a huge drop'



CNN polling expert Harry Enten explained Monday that President Joe Biden is hemorrhaging support with black voters — and it may cost Democrats in November.

What did Enten say?

Breaking down the data on CNN's "New Day," Enten spotlighted the notable drop in support for Democrats among black voters.

Examining pre-electoral preferences, Enten showed how Democrats in Congress are receiving 74% of support among black voters. The figure seems high, but when you compare that number with what it was just two or four years ago, the concerning development for Democrats becomes obvious.

"Compare [74%] to the final polling for 2020 president and 2018 Congress. Back in 2020 it was 84%, 85% in 2018," Enten said. "So, you're clearly seeing right here that there is less support for Democratic candidates for Congress among African-Americans."

That drop translates to a sizable pickup for Republicans, Enten explained.

"You can look at the Republican column as well and you can see that 12%, not exactly high, but that's actually the high-water mark. It was 9% in 2020, 9% in 2018," he said. "So, basically, what was about a 75, 76-point margin is now down in the low 60s."

\u201cNew data shows Democrats losing support from a reliable base. @ForecasterEnten reports on the shift in trends among Black voters:\u201d
— New Day (@New Day) 1664799970

What is causing the drop?

Enten attributed the drop in support for Democrats broadly to President Joe Biden's low approval rating.

"Take a look at Joe Biden's approval rating among black adults. If you go back to January to June 2021... it was 87%, basically matching what he got in the 2020 election," Enten noted. "But look at that approval rating now, in August and September 2022, it's all the way down to 64%.

"Now, obviously, Joe Biden's approval rating with all Americans is down, but it's not down by anywhere near this amount— this 23-point drop," he continued. "Among all Americans, it's only down about 10–15 points. So, there is a disproportionate drop in Joe Biden's approval ratings among African-Americans. And I think that's kind of driving why you're seeing Democrats running for Congress, getting a significantly lower margin than we're used to seeing."

Host Brianna Keilar responded, "That is huge. That is a huge drop there."

Turning to Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams is challenging Gov. Brian Kemp, the same phenomenon is occurring.

"Among African-American voters, Stacey Abrams' lead is actually down from 79 points in the final 2018 polling to 67 points now," Enten said.

"So, in Georgia, this key state where black voters make up such a large portion of the electorate, you're seeing, again, more movement among black voters away from the Democratic Party than you're seeing among voters overall," he explained.

Meanwhile, the same thing is happening with Hispanic voters, Enten said. Fewer are supporting Democrats than in past elections, and more are supporting Republicans.

CNN reporter explains how polling is 'underestimating' Republican strength ahead of 2022 midterm elections



Polls surveying voters ahead of the 2022 midterm elections are likely "underestimating" the strengths of Republicans, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten explained on Wednesday.

What are the details?

Heading into summer, polls showed Republicans with a significant lead over Democrats on the generic ballot, suggesting a "red wave" would hit the U.S. in November.

Recent polling, however, shows that lead shrinking.

But according to Enten, Republicans historically outperform what their July polling indicates. That means when all the votes have been counted, Republicans may still win the midterm elections in dominating fashion.

"If we were in fact to say, 'OK, we think it's underestimating one side,' I would think it would be underestimating Republicans," Enten admitted on CNN Wednesday.

"Here's why: Take a look at the July 27 House polling versus the November national vote, in midterm cycles where there's a Democratic president, we'll go back since 1994, right? And what we see generally we see some blue here, some Democratic leads in 2014, 1994, a tie back in 1998, Republicans +3," Enten showed.

"Then look at the November result, in each of these years, the Republicans outperformed their July polling in the November result, and the average shift from the July polling to the November result: an average shift of +6 points to Republicans," he explained.

\u201c\u201cWhile Republicans still hold an advantage here of one point, that lead has been dropping\u2026 The more Trump is in the news, the worse it has generally been for Republicans.\u201d CNN\u2019s @ForecasterEnten forecasts what could happen in the midterm elections for both parties\u201d
— The Lead CNN (@The Lead CNN) 1658962903

So why the discrepancy? According to Enten, it boils down to registered voters compared to voters who actually turn out on Election Day.

"If we look at every single election since 1978 with a Democratic president, there has been a shift in the party ID margin," Enten explained. "More Republicans turnout on Election Day compared to what the actual registered voters are in midterm elections when there's a Democratic president."

What about Democrats?

Given the position of Republicans, anchor Jake Tapper asked Enten whether Democrats "should be looking at November in sheer terror."

"I would not be a big fan of what's going to happen in November if I were a Democrat," Enten responded, explaining the party in control of the White House historically loses in the midterms except when the president has high job approval ratings.

And unfortunately for Democrats, President Joe Biden's approval rating remains significantly underwater.

According to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, 55.7% of Americans disapprove of Biden's job performance while only 39.2% approve.

Even Democrats seem to want a new leader. A new CNN poll released this week showed that a whopping 75% of Democratic voters want a different presidential nominee in 2024.

CNN reporter deflates Dem hope that January 6 hearings will hurt GOP before midterm elections: 'Republicans are trusted' on inflation



The highly promoted congressional hearings on Jan. 6 are not impacting American voters in the way Democrats had hoped.

What do Democrats want?

Before the first publicized hearing from the House Jan. 6 committee last month, the New York Times explained that Democrats hoped to "refocus voters' attention on Jan. 6" to hurt Republicans by connecting the GOP "to an unprecedented plot to undermine democracy itself."

The Times reported:

With their control of Congress hanging in the balance, Democrats plan to use made-for-television moments and a carefully choreographed rollout of revelations over the course of six hearings to remind the public of the magnitude of Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the election, and to persuade voters that the coming midterm elections are a chance to hold Republicans accountable for it.

But what does the data show?

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten told CNN anchor Jake Tapper on Monday the hearings are not moving the needle in Democrats' favor ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

"We've talked before about the poor polling for Democrats heading into this year's midterm elections. Have these hearings changed that outlook at all?" Tapper asked.

"Not really. No," Enten replied.

"Look, before the hearings began — they began on June 9 — on June 8, my average of the polls, the generic ballot had Republicans +3 points. Now, where is it? Republicans +2 points," he explained. "You could make the argument that maybe there was a slight change, but the fact is, there's so much news going on, this is not much of a change — at all."

\u201cCNN\u2019s @ForecasterEnten breaks down Americans\u2019 views of the January 6 Committee hearings as the country heads into critical midterm elections\u201d
— The Lead CNN (@The Lead CNN) 1657582898

The reason the hearings are not making a difference, Enten explained, is because Americans simply are not concerned about them as they continue to face sky-high inflation and gas prices.

"What is the top issue for Americans at this point, and who is trusted on that? The top issue for Americans at this point is not the Jan 6 committee hearings," Enten said. "It is not Donald Trump, it's inflation, according to 33% of Americans — that is the top issue.

"And who is trusted more on the issue of inflation? The margin right here is absolutely huge: Republicans are trusted over Democrats by 19 points," he continued. "And that is why at this particular point, Republicans still lead on that generic congressional ballot."

CNN data reporter lays out devastating case why Republicans are in 'best position' to dominate midterm elections



CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down in devastating terms Monday the grim circumstances in which Democrats find themselves just months from the 2022 midterm elections.

Enten told CNN anchor Jake Tapper that, from a historical perspective, Republicans are sitting in a "very good" position to win the House majority in November — and do so in staggering fashion.

According to Enten, Republicans hold a two-point lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, which he called the "best position for Republicans at this point in any midterm cycle in over 80 years."

The result, Enten predicted, is that Republicans could have up to a 50-seat majority over Democrats in the next Congress.

"My estimate for the 2023 House makeup if the election were held today — which again, it isn't, we still have five months, five months from tomorrow — would be Republicans 236 seats to 241 seats, Democrats 194 to 199," Enten explained. "That's based off of a formula of seat to seat race ratings from both the Cook Political Report and inside elections."

Tapper described such a result as a "stomping," a characterization with which Enten agreed.

\u201c\u201cRepublicans lead on the issue that\u2019s most important. No wonder they have a historic advantage on the generic congressional ballot.\u201d @ForecasterEnten reports on the grim outlook for Democrats in November\u201d
— The Lead CNN (@The Lead CNN) 1654557884

Enten also agreed with Tapper that "a lot of the Democrats' problems" are linked to President Joe Biden "who is severely underwater."

After observing that midterm election results are closely linked to presidential approval, Enten explained the real problem for Democrats: Biden's approval on the economy is -26%, the lowest since Jimmy Carter in the late 1970s.

Biden's embarrassing marks on the economy are thus the "big drag" for Democrats because Americans overwhelmingly are concerned about the economy, especially in a year of sky-high inflation and record-high gas prices.

"Here, I think is the big takeaway," Enten explained. "Views on the economy are closer to...Republican Party 51%, Democratic Party 31%. Republicans lead on the issue that's most important. No wonder they have a historic advantage on the generic congressional ballot."