'Something historic': CNN analyst GOBSMACKED by how Vance polls against Nikki Haley, others



The 2028 presidential election is 34 months away, and in that time, there are sure to be plenty of surprises. There are, however, already clear signs of who may ultimately make a bid for the White House — and how they might fare in the primaries.

CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, expressed surprise on Monday by how Vice President JD Vance performed in a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters against former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nimarata "Nikki" Haley, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and other prospects.

'The rest of the field are like going around in go-karts.'

Enten alluded to prediction market odds indicating that Vance is "running well ahead of the field" and that "nobody else is even close."

Polymarket puts Vance's chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 at 54%. The site has the chances of the runner-up, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, securing the nomination at 9%. This high confidence in Vance's chances is similarly expressed on the PredictIt site as well as on the federally regulated prediction market Kalshi, which suggests Vance and Rubio have a 48% and 10% chance of securing the nomination, respectively.

"JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are like going around in go-karts at this point," said Enten. "That's really what we are looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time."

Enten noted that Vance's staggering early lead reflected in the prediction markets "is not coming out of nowhere" and directed CNN talking head Sara Sidner's attention to a poll conducted in October by the University of New Hampshire.

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Photo by Caylo Seals/Getty Images

The poll found that among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, 51% said they would vote for Vance; 9% said they would vote for Haley; 8% said they would vote for Gabbard; 5% said they would vote for Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders; 4% would vote for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.); and 3% each would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Calgary-born Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who appears poised to run as the kind of Republican President Donald Trump crushed in the 2016 and 2024 GOP primaries, proved unable to capture 1% in the poll.

"Take a look here! JD Vance at 51%!" said Enten. "The next closest is Nikki Haley, who's at 9 — who's at 9! I mean, what is that? That's 42 points ahead of the pack."

"There's a reason why he's such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are, you're going to be the Republican nominee for president," added Enten.

When asked by Sidner whether it was rare to see an early lead of this magnitude, Enten said, "I looked back. Hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president — JD Vance is the only one."

"JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time," continued Enten.

While Vance's early lead is unprecedented, the last five sitting vice presidents who ran for president all became their parties' nominees.

A straw poll was also taken earlier this month at Turning Point USA's annual AmericaFest, where widowed CEO Erika Kirk endorsed the vice president.

Blake Neff, the producer of "The Charlie Kirk Show," noted that Vance won the AmFest straw poll "by more than Donald Trump won the 2024 one we did two years ago." Whereas 82.6% of respondents previously said they wanted to see Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee, 84.2% of respondents said they wanted to see Vance as their nominee in 2028.

The UNH poll that found a majority of likely GOP voters support Vance likewise found that there is a much closer race developing across the aisle.

Among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, 19% of respondents say they would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; 15% would vote for California Gov. Gavin Newsom; 14% would vote for New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; 11% would vote for failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris; 8% would vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.); and 6% would vote for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

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Republicans are letting Democrats lie about affordability



Midterm elections go one of two ways. They are either a validation of the sitting president or a repudiation. Historically, they have almost always been a repudiation.

The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be no different — a firm rebuke to Donald Trump. That’s obviously bad for him. Congress will spend two straight years investigating and likely impeaching him.

If President Trump’s supporters don’t show up, Republican defeat is guaranteed.

But the bigger danger is to America. Democrat control of Congress will jeopardize Republicans’ efforts to restore an economy of opportunity for all. Worse, Democrats will lay the groundwork for recapturing the White House in 2028, at which point they will implement the most anti-opportunity agenda in American history. We’re talking welfare for all, funded by crippling tax hikes and a federal takeover of a once-free economy.

Can Donald Trump turn the midterms around? Only if he, his fellow Republicans, and their allies on the right make immediate changes. If they do, they could stem the losses in November — and maybe even defy the odds to expand their majorities in the House and Senate.

First and foremost: They need to realize that midterms hinge on turnout.

The reason midterms are usually a presidential repudiation is that voters from the other party are more motivated. They feel greater anger and intensity, and they show up. The president’s supporters, meanwhile, usually think they did their job when they elected their man. Why bother showing up again?

If President Trump’s supporters don’t show up, Republican defeat is guaranteed. The most urgent need, therefore, is to invest in a massive get-out-the-vote operation. The GOP needs one the likes of which it has never seen.

But such an effort also needs a message — something that resonates with voters and spurs them to action. That’s the second area where change is required. Because right now, Republicans don’t have any meaningful message at all.

The left certainly does. Democrat politicians, their allies in the media, and their associated army of activists and nonprofits have rallied around a single word: affordability. They’re tricking voters into thinking that all the inflation and financial pain that Joe Biden caused is really the fault of Donald Trump. The call to action writes itself: If voters want to make ends meet, their only hope is to vote the GOP out.

This message works, but only because Republicans are letting it work. They are largely silent in the face of Democrat attacks. Worse, in the president’s case, he is calling affordability a “hoax.” For voters who supported him because of Joe Biden’s inflation, nothing could be worse. It’s tantamount to saying their problems don’t matter.

Republicans must reclaim the economic high ground. They need to relentlessly hammer the point that Joe Biden’s enormous failures will take time to fix. They need to point to the relief they’ve given, especially the tax cuts the president signed in July. Most importantly, they need to lay out a unified agenda that speaks to Americans’ deep concerns, convincing voters that the GOP will, in fact, make life more affordable.

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Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images

Crafting that agenda is as much the work of policy wonks as it is public relations. Republicans and their allies should be relentlessly message-testing and focus-grouping to discover not only what policies Americans want, but how to sell the policies that Americans need — in health care, housing, and beyond. This can be done without compromising conservative principles. In fact, it is essential if those principles are to have a path to becoming policies.

There’s one more message the GOP needs. It’s not enough to make a positive case for Republicans' own priorities. They need to remind Americans of the danger posed by Democrats relentlessly.

This isn’t hard. The return of crippling inflation. The collapse of our borders once again. Higher taxes on the middle class. Republicans have a simple case to make: If voters want all of America to look more like crime-ridden, welfare-defrauding, utterly unaffordable big blue cities, they should vote for Democrats.

Republicans needed these messages yesterday. They needed a turnout operation that was already delivering these messages to the base and undecided voters alike. If they and their allies don’t get their act together before the start of the year, the midterm elections will indeed be a repudiation of Donald Trump. Worse, they’ll put America’s future at risk. The clock is ticking.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

Debate: Can JD Vance become the right’s great unifier — or does his VP role stand in the way?



The young conservative movement is experiencing a notable leadership gap amid ongoing chaos in the online right-wing space. Sure, there are passionate influencers and rising political voices, but no one has fully stepped up to unify and guide the broader coalition with a commanding presence.

One person investigative journalist and BlazeTV host Christopher Rufo thinks might be able to step into the role, however, is Vice President JD Vance. But Rufo’s co-host Jonathan Keeperman isn’t sure Vance is up for the job either.

In this episode of “Rufo & Lomez,” the hosts debate whether JD Vance can step up as the unifying leader the conservative movement needs amid escalating chaos.

“I've been so far a bit surprised that the vice president hasn't tried to step into this role,” says Rufo, arguing that Vance has both the “charisma” and the “authority” to effectively lead the movement.

“I’ve known JD over the years. ... It does feel like he has some hesitation or maybe even some fear,” he adds.

While Keeperman agrees that Vance “has all of the tools and charisma and ... the right talking points” to be an excellent leader, his role as the vice president would actually be a hindrance.

“I don't think JD Vance should actually do that in his vice presidential position. Not right now. I think it'd be a bit presumptuous. I think people might kind of see it as him stepping in to sort of correct a situation that I think needs to just happen organically,” he counters.

For one, Vance’s position prohibits him from “[speaking] candidly about the administration.”

“Whoever is going to step into this role has to feel credible to this audience, and part of that credibility is going to come from just speaking honestly about all of these different things happening in this ecosystem — whether it's the different personalities, the ideas, the sort of ideology that's animating Trump but also the specific actions that the Trump administration is taking,” Keeperman explains.

In other words, the kind of leader people will follow needs to be an outsider who can speak brutal truths about the current administration, and Vance, as Trump’s right-hand man, can’t be that person.

Secondly, President Trump is still the top dog, Keeperman explains. For his VP to assume the authority of this role as the leader of the conservative movement “might not sit well inside of this coalition.”

“Maybe you're right,” Rufo concedes. “We need some sort of native figure to step up in the same way that Charlie Kirk did, in the same way that Tucker had done.”

To hear more of the conversation, watch the episode above.

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All I want for Christmas is for Vivek Ramaswamy to stop embarrassing the GOP



Vivek Ramaswamy is a DEI candidate — and an unqualified one. Republicans do not vote for unqualified DEI candidates. Historically, they never have.

For the good of Ohio, the Republican Party, and MAGA voters nationwide, Vivek Ramaswamy should withdraw from the Ohio gubernatorial race. His candidacy is not merely ill-advised; it is corrosive. At a moment when unity and discipline matter, he threatens to fracture the coalition President Trump assembled and to waste political capital ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential cycle, when Ohio native JD Vance is widely expected to lead the ticket.

All Ramaswamy had to do was remain silent and act like a normal Republican for 18 months. He couldn’t.

Ramaswamy’s problem is not policy disagreement. It is temperament, judgment, and an inability to restrain himself. His habit of attacking critics as racists, trolls, or bad actors poisons the well. Democrats, corporate media, and professional activists already do that job. Republicans do not need a gubernatorial candidate doing it from inside the party.

In 2024, 3,189,116 Ohioans voted for Donald Trump. It strains credulity to claim that Ramaswamy is more qualified to govern Ohio than virtually any one of them.

Yet this charade continues. For decades, GOP leadership has tried to impose an identity-driven strategy on a party whose voters reject it. The results are consistent. From Alan Keyes to Winsome Earle-Sears, the establishment clings to a failed premise: that Republican voters will embrace DEI candidates if scolded long enough. They won’t. Nor do minority voters reliably cross over for such candidates. The strategy fails on both ends.

That makes the present moment especially baffling. At a time when Trump and Vance are openly criticizing decades of discriminatory policies against white Americans, backing a candidate whose appeal rests on the same identity logic is not just tone-deaf — it is hostile to the base.

Ohio is a solid red state. Any competent Republican with discipline wins statewide office comfortably.

Vivek Ramaswamy is neither.

His background underscores why. In 2011, at age 24, Ramaswamy accepted a $90,000 “scholarship” from the brother of George Soros. That alone raises eyebrows. It becomes more troubling when you consider that Ramaswamy had already earned more than $1.2 million in the prior three years and reported $2.25 million in income the year he accepted the award.

This occurred during the Great Recession, when many white Millennial men faced systematic exclusion across elite institutions. Ramaswamy did not.

Later, much of his wealth flowed from Axovant Sciences, which aggressively promoted an Alzheimer’s breakthrough to retail investors after early trials had failed. The result was a textbook pump-and-dump that left ordinary Americans holding the bag. These facts go directly to trust and judgment.

Despite this record, Ramaswamy launched a quixotic presidential campaign, which he parlayed into a brief role in the Trump administration and a partnership with Elon Musk under the DOGE initiative. That arrangement ended almost as quickly as it began.

Then came the Christmas crashout of 2024.

During the holidays — entirely unprovoked — Ramaswamy took to X to berate American workers as lazy and culturally deficient while praising foreign H-1B visa holders. He mocked American childhood culture, disparaged “jocks and prom queens,” and lamented that Americans watched “Boy Meets World” instead of competing in math olympiads. The episode revealed far more about Ramaswamy’s resentments than about American culture.

MAGA voters were celebrating a landslide victory when the lecture arrived. The response was swift and overwhelming. Rather than admit error, Ramaswamy doubled down, dismissing critics as bots, trolls, and racists while casting himself as a victim.

Shortly thereafter, the Trump administration quietly removed him from his DOGE role before he was even formally installed.

Voters noticed. The internet does not forget.

When Ramaswamy announced his run for governor, the reaction was not enthusiasm but disbelief. The Ohio GOP’s apparent decision to anoint him is indefensible. It would take an estimated $100 million to drag this candidacy across the finish line, and even then he would be lucky to crack 48%.

We’ve seen this movie before. At least one-third of Ohio Republicans would rather spoil their ballot, vote third-party, or stay home than support him. Accusing them of racism will not change that reality.

Most recently, Ramaswamy took to the New York Times to reprise his grievances, portraying MAGA voters and heritage Americans as racists, extremists, and “groypers.” He made similar remarks at Turning Point USA’s AmFest over the weekend.

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Photo by Michael Swensen/Getty Images

In his Times op-ed, he argued that America is an abstract idea detached from ancestry, history, or continuity — and that descendants of those who built the nation have no greater claim to it than recent arrivals or anchor babies.

That view is not widely held, nor is it reflected in the American tradition. From America’s founders to Alexis de Tocqueville and Theodore Roosevelt, continuity, inheritance, and culture have always mattered.

No one expects Ramaswamy to be a heritage American. But Americans reasonably expect someone seeking to govern them to respect the people whose nation it is. Ramaswamy has shown repeated contempt instead.

He did not have to attack white Americans over Christmas. He did not have to insult the Republican base in the New York Times. He did not have to liken MAGA voters to extremists.

He chose to.

All Ramaswamy had to do was remain silent and act like a normal Republican for 18 months. He couldn’t.

MAGA does not need this distraction. Ohio does not need this fight. The Republican Party cannot afford to spend finite resources defending a candidate who consistently antagonizes his own voters.

That alone makes him unsuitable for office.

Conservatives face a choice in ’26: realignment or extinction



The elections of 2026 and 2028 will be “Flight 93 elections,” but not in the way Michael Anton envisioned in 2016. Anton famously compared supporting Donald Trump to charging the cockpit of a hijacked plane: reckless, dangerous, but preferable to certain death.

Nine years later, the metaphor has inverted. The forces that once stormed the cockpit now control it. They have locked the door, fortified the controls, and flown the Republican Party in widening circles toward disaster. No one inside can change course. The GOP plane is rapidly losing altitude, and everyone aboard can see it coming.

Continuing down this path does not preserve conservatism. It buries it inside an irredeemable party.

At this stage, the only rational move involves grabbing a parachute and jumping. Staying seated guarantees political death.

The gamble failed

Anton wrote his essay when the Republican Party had already revealed itself as corrupt, inert, and incapable of reform. That decay produced Trump. He appeared as something new: a transactional, deeply flawed outsider promising to smash the uniparty and deliver for workers and small businesses long ignored by corporate Republicanism.

Many voters tolerated Trump’s personal failings and erratic behavior because he represented a rupture. At least it was different.

Nine years on, Republicans carry all the liabilities of Trump’s image and record without securing the benefits that justified the gamble. His better policies stall in court. His worst instincts endure. Meanwhile, Republicans lose elections in territory that once leaned safely red.

Trump obsesses over his ballroom project, courts tech and crypto bros, cuts deals with China and Qatar, and waves away economic pain that millions feel daily. Consumers face rising prices. College graduates struggle to find work. Small businesses buckle under costs. The White House insists the economy is strong.

It is not.

History repeats

This failure did not begin with Trump. The Tea Party quickly collapsed because it tried to reform a party that could not be reformed. The GOP long ago ceased functioning as a conservative party. It exists to serve corporate donors while marketing fear of the left to a skeptical electorate.

History offers a warning. The Whig Party collapsed once it became obvious that it stood for nothing relevant to its era. The Republican Party replaced it. Today’s GOP has perfected the art of symbolic resistance paired with practical surrender. It’s fake opposition.

Trump’s rise looked like a break from that pattern. Sadly, it was not. He has spent five election cycles endorsing establishment Republicans, preserving the very faction that produced the crisis. His rhetoric attacks “RINOs,” but his endorsements entrench them.

His current agenda reflects the same contradiction: Big Tech, techno-feudal economics, Qatari pandering, Chinese student visas, and government-backed industrial schemes sold as innovation, paired with denial of inflation and hardship.

All the liabilities, none of the benefits

The result proves electorally poisonous. Republicans repel suburban voters and working-class voters simultaneously. They project the aloof corporatism of the pre-Trump era mixed with cultural coarseness and denial of obvious hardship.

Since 2017, Republicans have compiled a grim down-ballot record, interrupted only by Trump’s 2024 victory against a weak opponent in a terrible economy. Rather than consolidate that win, Trump chose to own the economy outright and burn political capital.

Conservatives now die on hills that are not their own. They inherit Trump’s liabilities without achieving the promised purge of the party’s corporate class. The GOP and Trump’s coalition increasingly merge into a single structure that offers spectacle instead of reform.

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The case for a clean break

As Republican candidates face double-digit swings toward Democrats even in light-red districts, the choice sharpens. Conservatives can continue propping up a failed party and risk discrediting their ideas permanently. We could embrace the “aristopopulism” of JD Vance and his circle. Or we could force a realignment.

A new party could channel distrust of techno-feudalism, mass surveillance, foreign labor exploitation, and a K-shaped economy engineered through government favoritism. It could ground itself in tangible productivity, property rights, sound money, privacy, small business, and national sovereignty.

Every decade or so, Republican dysfunction becomes obvious enough to provoke rebellion: Ronald Reagan, Newt Gingrich, the Tea Party, MAGA. Each time, the insurgency gets absorbed and neutralized by the same structure.

We have reached that moment again.

Continuing down this path does not preserve conservatism. It buries it inside an irredeemable party. The Republican Party has reached the end of its rope. The only question is whether conservatives recognize it before the fall becomes irreversible.

The Indiana Redistricting Fail Is A Lot More Complicated Than Pro-Trump Vs. Anti-Trump

The Trump administration needed to show the people and our representatives out in flyover country that redistricting is about protecting us. It failed.