The day after tomorrow: A new GOP



Republicans are depressed, panicked, and angry. It is hard to imagine much else after the Watergate-level beating they took Tuesday night. None were spared. Moderates, grassroots, MAHA, and neocons were caught alike in the blue squall, and unsurprisingly, predictions of doom abound.

Put aside the tired "pendulum swings" cope, however, and take a look at the landscape and what's to come. There are plenty of reasons to take it all in stride. The future of the Grand Old Party, for starters, is alive and well (and may even have grown stronger in the winnowing). And just as importantly, that talented bench will have its day — because the Democrats have made clear they are determined to misinterpret their mandate.

It's a dangerous time, but in crisis lies opportunity.

When Gen. Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson lost his left arm, his friend Gen. Robert E. Lee lost his boldest and most brilliant officer, reflecting at the time that Jackson was “better off than I am, for while you have only lost your left, I have lost my right arm.”

Who was the GOP's right arm Tuesday night? Who was the key to the Republican future, lost too soon? There's a strong case to be made for Iowa's Zach Lahn, the mold-breaking MAHA populist who overcame the White House's wishes to win his primary, but his story isn't finished yet. So who else? Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall? Maine's Susan Collins? Certainly not South Carolina's Darline Graham. The Republican slate was anemic and uninspiring, and because of this reality, few rising stars can be found among the wreckage.

While the Lone Star State suffered the most impactful losses of the night and must be a critical priority for Republicans hoping to rebuild nationally, it is difficult to weep over the dead. Despite long claiming the crown of conservative state politics, the reality is that Texas is home to a corporatist establishment that seamlessly switched from importing illegal labor from Mexico to importing semi-legal labor from India when the national mood shifted — and got caught doing so.

While rightfully angry and unsatisfied, Texas' grassroots expressed that anger by promoting creepy clowns like Allen West and creepy undertakers like Ken Paxton. Neither side possesses a talent or vision for the future. They'll have two to four years to think on that and build something better.

Observers can rightfully notice that the GOP lost both of the national legislative chambers, but there is room for honest assessment there as well. Congress has spent decades bafflingly abnegating authority and is now the least powerful it has ever been. Furthermore, President Donald Trump made clear that he was largely done legislating anyway (to his detriment). Democrats' reach is limited at best, despite their campaign promises.

RELATED: Republicans need to be honest about why we lost

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To their credit, Democrats ran largely disciplined campaigns. While Senators-elect Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico carried heavy Resistance baggage, voters barely ever heard them talk about that Resistance on the trail. For the first time in a decade, Democrats didn't run on identity politics, Russia, Ukraine, or the Resistance. They utterly ditched the problems of the Ivy League faculty lounge for the problems of everyday Americans, including even those of straight, white, Christian men.

Their focus was entirely domestic and hit on the economy, the war, and the prices of gas and diesel.

They won on that message, but before the sun rose Wednesday, there were dozens of threats to investigate and imprison Republicans from California to Washington. The campaign was a ruse, but it worked. Right now, it is hard to imagine a world where national Democrats will stay on the targets voters sent them to Washington for. Rather, they'll go for revenge.

The temptation to investigate and prosecute is strong. The insider trading among top White House lieutenants and Cabinet officials is the envy of Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and Hunter Biden's art sales look cute next to the Trump family's international business dealings. There was a time when these sorts of investigations might have a major political impact, but those days are gone.

The hard reality is that those unscrupulous sitting White House officers enriching themselves likely didn't break any laws, reducing Democrats' message to "shady-shady-profit-profit." For years, Republicans have tried to make the same narrative stick to the likes of Pelosi and George Soros, while smarter Democrats than incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) targeted the Kochs. All these attacks ever accomplished were a sea of partisan media segments and bumper sticker sales to party activists. It's complicated stuff, and Americans are more focused on affording groceries and utilities.

Of course, Democrats can try to nail it all on the presidents' kids instead, but after years of trying that game with Russia and then Ukraine, it's hard to imagine it working with the Saudis or whoever else. Sure, Rachel Maddow's fan club will be incensed, but if history is any guide, the public will neither follow nor much care.

They will care if inflation isn't handled. They will care a great deal if energy and food prices don't come down They will be angry when they get the cable news outrage segments Congress long ago substituted for substantive legislative action.

And they will be angry at Democrats.

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On the campaign trail in 2016, the two most incredible spectacles were the Donald J. Trump and the Bernie Sanders shows. The energy and the outrage were electric.

No American leader has yet to approach satisfying that discontent; the frustrations were real and have only grown. Washington is still a swamp, America is still too entangled in foreign wars, and while the border is closed, the pace of legal and illegal demographic change has still deeply unsettled the people and the economy. It's a dangerous time, but in crisis lies opportunity.

At the Korean War's Battle of Chosin Reservoir, storied Marine Gen. Lewis "Chesty" Puller reportedly exclaimed, "They've got us surrounded! Good! Now we can fire in any direction.” Republicans actually do have that chance in just two years. Waves recede, and there are dozens and dozens of R+ districts that will be up for grabs for a new crop of populist candidates eager to learn the lessons of the elders' failures and champion the kind of politics Americans are demanding.

The bench is strong, the board is cleared for the next generation, Democrat overreach in all the wrong directions is inevitable, and the next elections will come. This isn't about "pendulum swings"; it's about hard work. Best get to it.

Republicans need to be honest about why we lost



One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over going into this midterm election was "composition" — whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Everyone knows why we lost, and any honest conversation about where we go from here needs to start there.

Well, that opinion looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was nine points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of arguing and finger-pointing over why that happened. A pollster I highly respect told me that our economic messaging down the stretch was not sharp enough to motivate voters. I’m sure that is true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster — one of the smartest people I know in politics — told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this prediction. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses, were:

  1. End the Iran war.
  2. Focus on the cost of living and inflation.
  3. Put America and Americans first.
  4. Change our relationship to Israel.

These four priorities are why many of our voters showed up to vote for Democrats yesterday, according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many people spent the day before the elections attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war, it turns out her political advice was perfectly sound. (She’s also a great person.)

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Over the next few months, there is going to be a lot of gaslighting. You can expect to hear any number of establishment politicians claim the solution to our woes is amnesty for illegal immigrants. I’m open to the idea that we should change our approach to immigration enforcement — by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. For the record, anyone pushing amnesty as a solution to our electoral issues is lying to you.

The reason we lost the midterms is the Iran war. The president himself said so last night.

If you want to argue that it was worth it — that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it — then go right ahead. At least arguing that it was a worthwhile price to pay is honest. But everyone knows why we lost, and any honest conversation about where we go from here needs to start there.

I remain hopeful for our country. My message to the people who are angry and want to say “I told you so” is simple: You’re right. You did tell us so. Now take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview and priorities. To the people who are just angry at the results: You should be.

Let’s take this anger and use it to get back to the work of saving our country.

Editor’s note: A version of this article was originally posted on X.

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Would you trust this politician with your wallet?



“My vote won’t make a difference. Why bother?” Because we still can.

I keep thinking about my ancestors. Our family history reaches back to the 1500s in what is now Germany. Eventually, members of that family left everything familiar and traveled to America.

The people on the ballot are applying for a job. If you owned a business, would you hire this person?

I cannot quote their conversations, but I imagine someone finally saying, “Wir müssen nicht so leben.” We don’t have to live this way. Taxes, control, and oppression had made staying unbearable. They had little say in the system governing their lives, so they crossed an ocean and accepted the dangers of a frontier for the chance to work, build, and keep the fruits of their labor. They expected hardship. They wanted a chance.

I cannot imagine looking those people in the eye and saying, “I have a voice in choosing who holds authority over my liberty, safety, and money. I just decided not to use it.” Yet election fatigue tempts us to do exactly that. We get disgusted, tune out, or decide one vote won’t count. I cannot control an election’s outcome, but I am responsible for using the voice I have.

That is stewardship. And part of stewardship means examining the ballot. Government must protect life and property, including infrastructure, national security, and fair commerce. Officials need clear responsibilities, limits on their power, and consequences when they abuse it.

Start with the term “public servant.” How many abuse both words? They serve, all right — themselves. And when the public asks questions, plain English suddenly becomes a foreign language.

Consider two recent examples. At a July Senate hearing, Anthony Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times. He had the constitutional right to do so, of course. That does not make the spectacle reassuring.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), meanwhile, rejected the allegation as “insane” that her former husband was her brother. But when asked whether she was related to her former husband, she answered, “Not to my knowledge.” A federal court filing also identified her as “Ilhan Nur Said Elmi” — a designation the filing did not explain and that Omar disputes. What does it mean? The public deserves a straightforward explanation, supported by evidence.

Before defending either official, ask whether you would accept the same conduct from someone you opposed. Public scrutiny comes with public service. Demand answers, including from those on your own side.

Trump may be the first president in our lifetime so public that he scarcely needs a press secretary. Sometimes I wish he would use one more. But that is another column.

Four questions help me evaluate the people asking for my vote.

Have they built anything?

A business, a farm, a household — what have they been responsible for? Have they ever met a payroll? When Friday comes, employees need their checks. A speech about good intentions won’t cover them. Experience alone does not qualify a candidate, but I want evidence that the person understands work, responsibility, and consequences.

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Would they return my wallet?

Intact and without expecting anything in return. Would you trust this person with your property or to help your family in an emergency? Does the candidate’s conduct support the promises? If neither candidate inspires confidence, compare their records. Which one would need less watching?

Do they help people get on their feet?

Are public officials helping people become independent or dependent? A Center for Immigration Studies analysis of 2014-2023 census survey data estimated that 81% of Minnesota households headed by Somali immigrants received cash assistance, food assistance, or Medicaid. That figure alone cannot tell us which recipients work, how long they need help, or whether programs are succeeding.

Those are questions for the officials spending public money. Are families gaining the ability to support themselves? Is independence even the goal? People who cannot provide for themselves because of age, disability, or sickness need help.

But unable and unwilling are different things. Compassion requires us to examine what happens to the people we claim to help. Stewardship requires us to examine those claiming to help them with our money.

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Will they protect life and property?

For me, that begins with unborn life and includes opposing medical gender interventions for children. It also means enforcing consequences against those who harm people or take what belongs to others. Examine candidates’ records on border security, bail, and sanctuary policies. Who was protected? Who paid the price? What did the official do when something went wrong? Apply the standard regardless of race, religion, wealth, connections, or party.

Compare what candidates promised with what they have actually done. Invite a neighbor to do the same. The people on the ballot are applying for a job. If you owned a business, would you hire this person? Would you bring this person in as a consultant?

Then vote.

My ancestors came here because they had so little voice in the decisions governing their lives. They accepted enormous risks for an opportunity their descendants now enjoy. I cannot promise them I will always choose wisely. But I will vote.

Because I still can.

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The GOP's favorite business model: Lose, beg, repeat



My wife, Gracie, recently heard Dana Perino on “The Five” discussing how poorly Republican candidates explain their accomplishments. “Why won’t the Republicans listen to her?” she asked. Tyrus often makes a related observation: Republicans don’t know how to play with a lead. I told Gracie that much of what’s wrong with this country belongs squarely at the feet of the GOP.

Democrats announce their intentions. Republicans raise money promising to stop them. Washington gets bigger, Americans get the bill, and another Republican email requests $25. Before midnight, naturally. Apparently, losing requires a subscription.

Republicans want our votes; our opinions apparently weren’t part of the purchase.

In “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers,” Aragorn commands the defenders of Helm’s Deep: “Show them no mercy, for you shall receive none!” The mercy rule belongs in T-ball for 5-year-olds, not politics, where a nation’s survival is at stake. Yet Republicans have spent decades playing as though their first obligation were to avoid upsetting the opposition.

We watched Bush absorb political beatings, McCain court people who never returned the favor, and Candy Crowley intervene during Romney’s confrontation with Obama. McCain reached so far across the aisle that he was practically horizontal. We sent Republicans to oppose the Democrats. They seemed determined to impress them.

Meanwhile, Rush Limbaugh labored daily, exposing the left and teaching millions what fighting it looked like. “I don’t want to stand with them. I want to stand over them,” declared the booming voice of the Doctor of Democracy. “What do they offer that we want? What do they stand for that’s good for the country?” His exasperation carried through the golden EIB microphone and across the fruited plain.

Rush understood the glass jaw beneath the left’s self-appointed moral superiority. Its champions claimed the virtue, assigned themselves the intelligence, and expected everyone else to accept the verdict. Rush laughed at that verdict. He challenged the falsehoods beneath their claims and mocked the people accustomed to doing the mocking. As he put it, “Mock them, and they become unhinged.”

The Tea Party had put Washington on notice, and Romney’s defeat deepened the frustration. Voters who followed the experts’ advice about electability were tired of lectures from people who kept losing. Then Trump came down the escalator.

I told my son in 2015, “Trump’s going to win.” He asked how I knew. “Because the establishment doesn’t understand how pissed off the American people are.” Voters were furious about government fraud, grift, and overreach. Republicans campaigned against Washington, then unpacked as though they had checked into a resort. People wanted someone willing to take a political swing and make it hurt.

Trump did.

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Daniel Heuer-Pool/Getty Images

Suddenly, people who had spent decades sneering at conservatives discovered an urgent national need for civility. Their media scribes encountered a Republican who questioned the interrogator, and their disapproval failed to produce the customary apology. Rush had shown us the glass jaw. Trump kept pounding it. I’ve never seen political derangement displayed so relentlessly or applauded so enthusiastically.

They warned Trump’s voters that he was combative. Yes. That was in the job description. His victories exposed Republican excuses, and his willingness to confront the press exposed their deference.

How much of the GOP’s helplessness had been habit? Some Republicans learned. Others still regard Trump’s voters as an unpleasant condition the party might recover from. They want our votes; our opinions apparently weren’t part of the purchase.

Now Republican candidates need coaching to defend their own record. How many seminars does this require? Dana, too many Republicans spent years selling us the fight. Trump made their customers start asking about delivery.

Start with the border. Maintaining control there would be enough for me. Customs and Border Protection reports that fiscal year 2026 was the first full fiscal year with zero Border Patrol releases into the country’s interior. Apparently, enforcement was possible!

Under the trade agreement with Japan, GlobalFoundries plans two new American chip factories, financed by up to $21 billion in Japanese investment. Trump’s Justice Department announced charges against 324 defendants in 2025 in alleged health care fraud schemes involving more than $14.6 billion in intended losses.

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Trump’s administration also moved to speed permitting for AI infrastructure and canceled thousands of USAID awards. Innovation deserves room. Taxpayer spending deserves scrutiny. There is a record to campaign on, so defend it. Make opponents defend theirs. When reporters put words in your mouth, spit them out.

Here’s a freebie: Biden signed a law providing nearly $80 billion in additional IRS funding. Meanwhile, it took a young man with a camera to put Minnesota’s day care spending under national scrutiny. Why did elected Republicans need a YouTuber to make people ask where the money went?

Trump cannot supply every Republican’s backbone. If Democrats take Congress, candidates who failed to make their case should answer for it. If Trump carries them across the finish line, a thank-you should precede complaints about his manners.

They should also remember one of Rush’s favorite sayings: “They don’t make statues of great moderates in history.” I miss Rush. He spent decades teaching us how to fight, and millions of listeners learned. Too many Republicans learned only how to fundraise. They have less than two weeks to prove that winning wouldn’t ruin their business model.

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For the VFW, Pride came before a fall



In June, the Veterans of Foreign Wars celebrated the left-wing holy of holies: LGBTQIA+ month. They paid tribute to those who fall under the ever-expanding umbrella of sexual identities and genders.

Framed as a gesture of inclusivity, the decision instead placed the VFW squarely on the opposing side of the demographic it has served for more than 125 years.

Having the right to say something does not automatically make saying it a good strategic decision.

Much of my career has been centered on reputation management and communications strategy. A painful lesson to learn the hard way is that the quickest way to lose influence is to pick unnecessary fights with your allies.

If the fight isn’t in defense of your core mission or identity, why go there and risk losing your base?

Every organization has a God-given right to say what it wants, when it wants. But the VFW seems to have forgotten something important about its members. According to Pew Research, 63% of veteran voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, compared with 35% who support Democrats.

Veterans are Americans. They fought for freedom, including the freedom of people whose beliefs and identities are different from their own. That does not mean they have to enthusiastically embrace every cause associated with the modern Pride movement or accept being branded intolerant and backward for questioning its politics.

Many veterans have legitimate concerns about taxpayer-funded gender-transition procedures, ideological brainwashing in classrooms, and military policies that could affect national security. By wading into this controversy, the VFW risks alienating its membership and its most important public policy audience: the GOP.

That is a spectacularly unnecessary political gamble, especially in an election year. The VFW could end up paying dearly if more disillusioned veterans decide to tear up their membership cards.

The VFW does not have to embrace every socially conservative position, nor should it abandon veterans who are not a part of its conservative majority. It should recognize that picking sides in contentious cultural debates carries risks, particularly when its overriding responsibility is to secure practical benefits for veterans.

Unfortunately, the communications problems extend well beyond Pride Month.

The organization has also managed to find itself in an extraordinary confrontation with Republican lawmakers over the Take Care of America’s Veterans Act, a sweeping legislative package combining more than 60 veterans-related measures.

The legislation would improve access to health care, expand support for caregivers, strengthen suicide prevention programs, and address longstanding problems within the Department of Veterans Affairs.

These are the exact issues the VFW exists to champion.

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A Mission Roll Call survey found that approximately 71% of respondents supported TCAVA.

Its concerns are not entirely without merit. Veterans deserve fair compensation for service-connected conditions, and any proposal affecting future benefits warrants careful scrutiny. But why scuttle a sweeping package of potentially transformative reforms over provisions that could be amended?

Surely the sensible response is to fight for a better bill rather than risk throwing the whole thing onto the legislative scrap heap. Instead, the dispute has descended into a damaging public confrontation.

In July, Republican Representatives Mike Bost (Ill.) and Jack Bergman (Mich.) requested a Department of Veterans Affairs review of the VFW’s accreditation to assist veterans with benefits claims.

The VFW has every right to challenge politicians. Its independence is vital, and lawmakers should not threaten its accreditation simply because they dislike its position on legislation.

But having the right to say something does not automatically make saying it a good strategic decision. The VFW should be hammering out compromises, winning amendments, and building coalitions.

Instead, it is flying the flag of a movement many of its members oppose and getting involved in ugly public feuds with folks who are supposed to be on the same side. Who benefits from that? Certainly not the veterans waiting for better health care, improved benefits, and meaningful reform.

The VFW’s history deserves respect. Generations of veterans have depended on its advocacy, and its influence in Washington once helped secure important victories for those who courageously served their country.

That makes its current predicament all the more frustrating.

With Republicans controlling Washington at the moment, there is a golden opportunity to secure meaningful legislative victories. The VFW needs to stop fighting unnecessary battles and concentrate its firepower on the issues that really matter.