With 12 days left, prediction markets flash a warning in Texas



Midterm elections are just 12 days away, and a lot hangs in the balance for the GOP. The Texas U.S. Senate race is one of the biggest and most closely watched of the 2026 midterms, as Attorney General Ken Paxton faces off against Democrat James Talarico.

On a recent episode of “Predictable,” BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere highlighted Texas as a major warning sign for Republicans.

Even though polling margins have narrowed between Paxton and Talarico, Stu notes that prediction markets still favor the Democrat.

“A 62% chance for James Talarico to win that race, according to Kalshi right now,” he says.

But he still leaves the door open for Republicans: “Republicans could easily win Texas.”

He notes that one of the show’s recurring thesis points is that voters often “come home” closer to Election Day.

“If you’re a Republican voter, maybe you’re a little upset with Paxton, you get to that voting booth, you kind of say, ‘You know what, I don’t want a Democrat Senate,’ so you might come home,” he says.

The Texas governor’s race between Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa looks more promising for the GOP, but only moderately so, says Stu.

“Greg Abbott in my own state here in Texas [is the] 73% favorite over Gina Hinojosa, who’s running a lot of ads now,” he adds.

“Now it’s got to the point where every single ad is one of these candidates in Texas. They’re spending hundreds of millions of dollars. It’s amazing to watch in action.”

While Abbott currently holds a clear lead on the markets, Stu warns that “Democrats do have a chance to win” the gubernatorial race.

Watch the full episode of “Predictable” to see Stu’s complete Senate map breakdown, how the prediction markets are pricing other key races, and why he thinks some of the movement toward Democrats may be more about money flowing into the markets than actual polling shifts.

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'These people have to be exterminated': Man allegedly threatens to 'shoot up' Texas Capitol — as Trump visits the state



An alleged plot to kill people at the Texas state Capitol in Austin has been thwarted, law enforcement officials say.

The suspect made several threats indicating that he wanted to shoot up the Capitol, according to the Texas Department of Public Safety.

'I am going to the Capitol and I am going to shoot it up.'

40-year-old Benny Caldera Jr. of Converse was arrested at his home at about 3 a.m. on Wednesday, just one day before the alleged planned attack was to occur.

Texas DPS said officials received a tip about the alleged plot and determined along with FBI investigators that it was a credible threat.

President Donald Trump also happens to be visiting Texas on Thursday, in order to speak at a Peterbilt truck factory outside Dallas.

An arrest warrant claims that Caldera made the verbal threats while speaking with his friend, who then reported Caldera's alleged remarks to the authorities.

"I love you, if you don't see me again," Caldera allegedly said to his friend, adding, "I am going to the Capitol and I am going to shoot it up."

Caldera also allegedly told his friend that he was planning the attack because of his anger against AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

He allegedly added about AIPAC, "These people have to be exterminated."

FBI Director Kash Patel said in a post on social media that the suspect was apprehended only hours after officials received the tip.

"Threaten Americans or our institutions and law enforcement will move FAST. Investigation ongoing," he added.

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Caldera was booked into Bexar County Jail and given a $75,000 bond before being transferred to federal custody Wednesday night.

At the state level, he has been charged with third-degree felony making a terroristic threat against a public servant. Federal charges have not yet been announced.

In Nov. 2023 the suspect was charged with carrying a weapon without a license.

Officials said they believed there was no threat to the Capitol and there is increased law enforcement presence at the Capitol on Thursday.

"Texas will NOT tolerate threats of violence against our Capitol," said Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) on social media.

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American jobs, American dominance: Vance, Abbott break ground on new shipyard in Texas



The renaissance of American shipbuilding is here, the Trump administration says, and Texas will play a leading role in it.

President Donald Trump noted early last year that "the commercial shipbuilding capacity and maritime workforce of the United States has been weakened by decades of Government neglect, leading to the decline of a once strong industrial base while simultaneously empowering our adversaries and eroding United States national security."

The Chinese shipbuilding market grew from under 5% of global tonnage in 1999 to 54.6% in 2024. That year, China launched 1,400 merchant vessels, whereas the US launched only five.

The administration has now taken a major step in turning that ship around.

Vice President JD Vance joined Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) on Wednesday in breaking ground at the site of a new shipyard in the Port of Brownsville that will initially be capable of producing vessels of up to 850 feet but potentially of over 1,200 feet in length.

Vance said that the facility represents "the American dream renewed and an American dream built by American workers, created by American companies, and ensuring that the next generation of America's future is in our hands and in the hands of our fellow citizens."

"The seas of the world will be ruled by warships built in the great state of Texas," stated Abbott.

Saronic Technologies' Port Alpha shipbuilding facility is expected to generate up to 10,000 jobs and to have an economic impact on the Lone Star State of approximately $264.5 billion, according to the governor's office.

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Saronic, which announced in July that it would invest over $3 billion in the project and have the facility open for operations by 2028, said that Port Alpha will have an estimated $160 billion in regional impact for Cameron County. Abbott broke down the financial appeal further, noting that "Saronic is going to be providing about $750 million in annual paychecks to Texans."

"For ten years, Texas has ranked number one in the United States for creating new jobs, and Port Alpha will build on that record to strengthen Texas’ workforce and shape the arc of national security," said Abbott.

Saronic Technologies Inc. is a relatively new Austin-based defense company whose co-founders include Navy SEAL combat veteran Kostadino Mavrookas, retired Marine Lt. Col. Rob Lehman, and Indian engineer Vivhav Altekar.

Marauder. Courtesy of Saronc Technologies

The company's bread and butter has in recent years been the development of dual-use maritime drones both for military operations and for commercial applications.

Saronic was selected earlier this year for the U.S. Navy's Medium Unmanned Surface Vessel Marketplace, and the company's 180-foot Marauder — an autonomous vessel with a top speed of 25+ knots and a modular payload capacity of 150 metric tons — participated in the program's at-sea testing phase. The Navy awarded Saronic a production contract for the Marauder this week.

"America’s maritime future depends on our ability to build again," Mavrookas, the company's CEO, said in a statement.

"Built from the ground up to deliver ships at a speed and scale not seen since World War II, this investment is about more than constructing a shipyard," continued Mavrookas. "It is about rebuilding the industrial capacity, workforce, and manufacturing advantage required to ensure American maritime leadership for decades to come."

Mavrookas' company highlighted how China has in recent decades eclipsed America as the the world's preeminent shipbuilder. According to the Congressional Research Service, the Chinese shipbuilding market grew from under 5% of global tonnage in 1999 to 54.6% in 2024. That year, China launched 1,400 merchant vessels, whereas the U.S. launched only five.

By 2035, Port Alpha is expected to produce up to 20 ships per year.

"At opening, Port Alpha will introduce an initial 150,000 gross tons of annual shipbuilding capacity, more than double the current U.S. commercial shipbuilding capacity," said Abbott's office.

Although the planned shipyard will be built on 835 acres at the Port of Brownsville, there are plans to potentially expand the shipyard such that it would cover 4,400 acres.

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Latino lawmakers demand Democrats funnel MILLIONS to Latina's campaign for Texas governor



Latino lawmakers in Texas are putting pressure on the Democratic Party to funnel $10 million to the gubernatorial election between the Republican incumbent and his Latina competitor.

Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa is hoping to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott (R), and her fellow Latino Democrats are pushing for more support from the Democratic Governors Association.

DGA is 'currently investing' in Hinojosa's campaign 'by paying expenses and recently providing staff.'

Thirty-nine Latino leaders and organizers sent a letter to Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), the chair of the DGA, warning him that it would be a slight to Latinos if he didn't send more support for Hinojosa.

"The party can't afford to continue to make the same mistakes of the past and not invest in our Latino candidates and Latino voters. Latinos will make the difference in this race, and this race has great implications for the makeup of Congress and our democracy," the letter read.

The letter also implied that bolstering Hinojosa's campaign could help Beshear's apparent presidential hopes in 2028.

Beshear offered a tepid statement to Axios about the demand.

"While there will certainly be more investment, announcing a figure would only advantage the [Republican Governors Association] in any counter-investment. I look forward to working with the signees of the letter in supporting Gina," he said.

He added that the DGA is "currently investing" in Hinojosa's campaign "by paying expenses and recently providing staff."

Polls show that Hinojosa is running slightly behind Abbott, who enjoys a massive financial advantage — the Democrat has only $3 million in cash on hand while Abbott has $67 million.

Axios notes that Texas is a very expensive state in which to campaign and tossing millions of dollars into the gubernatorial race may siphon needed funds from other races.

RELATED: Democrats face CRUSHING math problem trying to take over Senate, CNN's Enten says

If Hinojosa is able to defeat Abbott, she would become the first Latino governor.

No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas in three decades.

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Indian-born billionaire whose hospitals are accused of birth tourism scheme received Biden award



The foundation created and led by Prem Reddy is in a bit of hot water.

Reddy's Prime Healthcare Foundation owns and operates a hospital in Mission, Texas, called Mission Regional Medical Center. On July 7, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott directed the Texas Health and Human Services Commission to launch an investigation into Mission Regional over allegations that it engaged in a birth tourism scheme.

'Federal prosecutors have been directed to "bring illegal birth tourism to an end" by prosecuting both those who engage in such conduct and those who solicit it.'

Abbott accused Mission Regional of advertising "BIRTH PACKAGES IN SOUTH TEXAS" in foreign countries in "an apparent effort to profit from securing United States citizenship for their children."

"American citizenship is not for sale, and Texas will not permit our health care system to be used as a magnet for birth tourism," stated the governor.

In its subsequent letter to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Texas Health and Human Services Commission highlighted reports that billboards promoting the alleged scheme were spotted in Mexico. The billboards reportedly referred would-be birth tourists to "havemybabyinTexas.com."

While the website appears to have been taken down, an archived version lists two hospitals as participants in the alleged scheme: Mission Regional and Knapp Medical Center in Weslaco — another Texas-based hospital owned by Reddy's foundation.

RELATED: Justice Department STRIPS citizenship from female migrant who helped run DISTURBING business

Antranik Tavitian/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Karen Ray, chief counsel for the Texas Health and Human Services Commission, said in the letter to Paxton, "Such birth tourism schemes not only exploit the extraordinary privilege of American citizenship, but also frequently involve 'lies about the purpose or duration of one’s travel to the United States.'"

"Accordingly, federal prosecutors have been directed to 'bring illegal birth tourism to an end' by prosecuting both those who engage in such conduct and those who solicit it for visa fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, misuse of identification, identity theft, and health care fraud," continued Ray. "While the allegations concerning Mission Regional Medical Center and Knapp Medical Center may not be identical to the schemes described above, they are equally troubling."

The HHSC referred the matter to Paxton, who confirmed on July 29 that he was investigating the two hospitals.

"My office will investigate any suspected illegal birth tourism schemes in Texas, including the operations of two South Texas hospitals that appeared to advertise birth tourism on a billboard near the border," said Paxton. "My office will continue to hold accountable any entity that knowingly facilitates fraud in our state."

Mission Regional chalked up the controversy to a misunderstanding.

A spokesman for the hospital said in a statement to Blaze News, "We recognize that a very limited marketing campaign may have caused unintended misunderstanding and was immediately discontinued. The campaign was meant to highlight services available to the communities we serve and was never intended to encourage any unlawful activity."

The spokesman noted that the hospital's supposedly "very limited campaign consisted of only two billboards located near the hospital and a website that generated very little patient volume, produced no financial benefit to the hospital, and was only intended as a service for the community, which is one of the most medically underserved regions of Texas."

"The hospital does not support or facilitate unlawful activity and has never operated its obstetric program with the intent of attracting individuals who are unlawfully present in the United States, promoting birth tourism, or encouraging travel to the United States for the purpose of obtaining U.S. citizenship for a child," said the spokesman.

According to Mission Regional's spokesman, Knapp Medical Center "did not actively participate in this marketing campaign with no involvement since 2024 and only had two elective deliveries of 684 deliveries this year."

Blaze News did not immediately receive a response from Knapp Medical Center or Paxton's office.

On July 21, Abbott issued an executive order tasking relevant state agencies with investigating claims of birth tourism schemes within the Lone Star State's health care industry. His office noted that "enforcement actions include revoking or suspending licenses, prohibiting participation in state contracts, denying state benefits, or pursuing other enforcement action under state law."

The EO references the two Prime Healthcare Foundation hospitals.

The scandal is a bad look for the foundation, as well as for its leadership — particularly for Reddy, its CEO, and Reddy's daughter, Kavitha Bhatia, who serves as president and chair of the Prime Healthcare Foundation.

In addition to receiving the Healthcare Lifetime Achievement Award from the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce, Reddy was presented with the Joseph R. Biden Lifetime Achievement Award in 2024.

Reddy's organization noted at the time that the award, which was part of the President's Volunteer Service Award program and given to certain individuals with a minimum of 4,000 hours of documented volunteer service, "recognizes Dr. Reddy's exceptional commitment and significant and sustained contributions to ensuring that communities have access to quality health care."

Reddy received the award even though he and his organization had in previous years reportedly paid over $100 million to the government as part of three separate federal civil settlements regarding alleged false claims to Medicare.

President and Jill Biden also posed for a photo with Reddy and Bhatia in 2022.

The founder of the scandal-plagued foundation isn't the only one in his family with a tight relationship with Democratic power.

According to Bhatia's bio on the Prime Healthcare website, she is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leadership circle for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) and California Rep. Ro Khanna (D).

Reddy and Bhatia were both born in India. Neither responded to Blaze News' request for comment.

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Texas slams brakes on data center projects as Abbott orders sweeping industry audit



As data centers continue to sprout up around the country, some leaders have begun reassessing and responding to many communities' concerns about their impact.

On Monday, Governor Greg Abbott (R-Texas) announced a comprehensive data center audit as concerns grow around many of the projects.

'Our top priority is to protect Texans’ safety and quality of life.'

Abbott directed the two relevant Texas agencies, the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, to conduct a full audit on all data center projects, pausing all projects until they successfully complete the process.

The audit itself demands that these data centers demonstrate their impact on local communities. The audit will specifically require answers regarding water and electricity usage, as well as solutions to reduce noise and light pollution, among other concerns.

“Our top priority is to protect Texans’ safety and quality of life,” said Abbott. “Any project that fails to comply with the requirements set forth by the PUCT and ERCOT, and by state law, must be denied connection to the Texas grid. Simply put, Texans must come first.”

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Brandon Bell/Getty Images

While these concerns have been repeatedly raised by citizens across the country, Abbott is also requiring data centers to provide information on ownership and controlling interests and, crucially, how they are paying for the construction and maintenance.

The audit will require data centers to show the extent to which they are "paying their own way" or relying on cushy tax breaks.

Texas has positioned itself as one of the best states for data center projects, due in large part to the tax incentives granted as an investment by the state. These incentives, however, are under increased scrutiny as data center projects have skyrocketed in the state.

Earlier this year, the Texas Tribune reported, citing the Texas comptroller's office, that Texas stands to lose out on $3.2 billion in sales tax revenue over the next two years from this tax break alone.

The governor's press release reports that 90% of new power requests, totaling a massive 474 gigawatts in capacity, came from new data center projects, yet doubt has been cast on these projects holding up their side of the bargain.

In a July 27 Texas Senate Committee on Finance hearing on data centers, Brad Reynolds, chief revenue estimator for the comptroller's office, gave testimony that of 138 new data centers that have come in for certification but are not yet verified for the sales tax exemption, only 20 of them have been audited.

What's more, according to Reynolds, six of the 20 were found to be noncompliant with the requirements for the tax exemption.

In June, Abbott set in motion a plan to reexamine the legal framework and incentives in place, specifically pledging to work with the legislature to "repeal" sales tax exemptions and other "outdated" incentives for data centers.

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Exclusive: Red states funneled $148 billion in corporate welfare to entities targeting conservative communities



Some Republicans have mastered the art of the bad deal, suggests a new State Leadership Initiative report exclusively given to Blaze News.

State Leadership Initiative’s new "Corporate Welfare" report suggests that corporate subsidies inadvertently fund “cultural and economic campaigns designed to destroy conservative communities.” Republican-run states have spent at least $148 billion on corporate subsidies since 2015, according to Good Jobs First.

'Red states are writing the biggest checks to their biggest enemies.'

“Many of the largest subsidy recipients actively undermine the communities and industries that subsidize them — through ESG mandates, replacement of domestic labor with H-1B workers, DEI regimes, supply-chain favoritism toward China, and open hostility,” according to the report.

Some of those subsidies are going to banks and asset management firms. These firms employ environmental, social, and governance standards that emphasize climate metrics when deciding where to invest.

“Major banks and investment firms that receive state deposits and tax incentives have implemented lending policies that strangle coal, oil, and natural gas projects,” the report states. “JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup — all recipients of various state incentives — have committed to ‘net-zero’ financing that effectively blacklists fossil fuel development.”

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup were all previously members of the United Nations-backed Net-Zero Banking Alliance. The banks quietly departed the coalition after President Donald Trump’s 2024 re-election.

“Tech companies impose ESG requirements on their supply chains that penalize manufacturers, agriculture, and energy producers in red states,” the report states. “Amazon, Google, and Microsoft — all major subsidy recipients — demand carbon accounting and ‘sustainable’ practices from suppliers that make it harder for red-state businesses to compete.”

Outlining its climate goals through 2030, Microsoft’s 2025 Environmental Sustainability Report touts that its “large-scale ... suppliers are required to transition to 100% carbon-free electricity for their delivered goods and services.”

'They use their market power to export California climate policy into states that explicitly rejected it.'

“The corporate welfare in our energy industry means taxpayers end up getting screwed twice. Federal and state dollars incentivize the financing and installation of crappy Chinese wind and solar, so corporations go out of their way to get the free money,” Power the Future Executive Director Daniel Turner told Blaze News.

“Politicians create a problem, spend your money to fix said problem, make everything worse, and then have the nerve to ask you to re-elect them. We fought a revolution over less.”

RELATED: The GOP's 2028 ticket math is already brutal

David Ryder/Getty Images

Over 57,000 Amazon positions have been affected by layoffs or restructuring since 2022, according to CNBC.

The Seattle-based giant had over 13,500 H-1B visa petitions approved in 2025.

An H-1B visa is often the first step for someone pursuing permanent residency in the United States. Once secured, an employer may begin the Program Electronic Review Management process on the employee’s behalf. If successful, the employee is granted permanent labor certification and a green card.

“[Amazon] has mastered the art of gaming the Department of Labor’s PERM process — posting job advertisements deliberately designed to exclude qualified Americans, ensuring they can claim no domestic workers are available and justify importing cheaper foreign replacements,” according to State Leadership Initiative VP and report author Thomas Murray. “Texas handed Amazon hundreds of millions in subsidies. Amazon responded by laying off thousands of Texas workers while filing for tens of thousands of H-1B visas to import cheaper foreign labor.”

“Before sponsoring a foreign worker for permanent residency, an employer must test the labor market — advertise the role, run specific recruitment steps, and certify that no qualified, willing U.S. worker was available,” Murray told Blaze News. “The gaming happens when a company designs that recruitment to be technically compliant while ensuring few or no Americans actually apply.”

In an April press release, Amazon stated that it "had more than 86,000 full- and part-time employees [in Texas] and supported more than 90,000 indirect jobs in 2025."

Apple and Meta were both previously pursued by the Department of Justice for similar alleged citizenship-status discrimination. The DOJ claimed that Apple required physical rather than electronic applications for PERM jobs to hide them from public view and keep them off its hiring websites.

In November 2023, Apple paid $25 million to settle DOJ allegations that it violated the Immigration and Nationality Act’s anti-discrimination statutes. Meta paid $14.25 million in 2021 following a similar DOJ investigation.

Meta, Apple, and Microsoft did not respond to requests for comment from Blaze News.

Murray noted the distinctions between Apple and Amazon’s alleged PERM strategy.

“Public DOL disclosure data shows Amazon filing tens of thousands of PERM applications across its entities, a large share at entry-level prevailing-wage tiers that are hard to square with a ‘no qualified Americans’ claim — and using the same recruitment patterns (generic ads, mail-in-only, roles never posted to its own careers site) that DOJ has already penalized at Apple and Facebook,” Murray told Blaze News. “Amazon hasn't yet been sued over this.”

According to Good Jobs First, Amazon has received at least $18 million in tax incentives in Texas since Gov. Greg Abbott (R) took office in 2015. Most Texas tax breaks are managed at the municipal level and are not required to disclose valuations, according to the state’s Local Government Code.

State Leadership Initiative’s report calls for subsidies over $25,000 to be included in a mandatory disclosure database.

“Texas uses performance-based incentives to attract major investments and create jobs for Texans. The governor’s focus is on expanding opportunity and good-paying jobs for Texas workers and families,” Abbott press secretary Andrew Mahaleris told Blaze News. “In January, he directed all Texas state agencies and public universities to immediately freeze new H-1B visa petitions and review current usage to ensure taxpayer-funded jobs go to Texans first.”

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Abbott’s action follows Trump’s September 2025 "Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers" proclamation, which applied a $100,000 fee to new H-1B applications.

“It’s a fairly common practice for governments to use incentive agreements to encourage companies to create jobs in their communities that generate tax revenue and drive economic activity,” Amazon Vice President of Economic Development Holly Sullivan told Blaze News. “And if we enter into an agreement like that, we take it seriously and work hard to create every job we projected. The way these agreements are structured means that we only receive benefits from them if we do our part.”

Clauses tying benefits to performance — often referred to as "clawback" clauses — are common for incentive agreements, though typically enforced at state or local government discretion.

State Leadership Initiative recommends Republican-run states expand the scope of their clawback provisions to safeguard their independence and economies.

“We’ve invested more than $1.8 trillion in the U.S. since 2010 and employ more than one million people across the country —no U.S. company has created more jobs than Amazon in the last decade,” Sullivan said.

Penalizing energy production via lending and supply-chain restrictions would automatically nullify incentive agreements under the proposed policy from State Leadership Initiative.

Scaling H-1B visa filings or outsourcing by 10% amid layoffs of 100 or more U.S. employees would also cancel state-level agreements should the report’s recommendations be adopted.

“The current crisis in red states demands we recognize that the problem has evolved beyond what traditional economic analysis anticipated,” the report concludes. “The corporations now receiving the largest subsidies take taxpayer dollars and use them to replace American workers, destroy American industries, and assault American culture.”

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