'Something historic': CNN analyst GOBSMACKED by how Vance polls against Nikki Haley, others



The 2028 presidential election is 34 months away, and in that time, there are sure to be plenty of surprises. There are, however, already clear signs of who may ultimately make a bid for the White House — and how they might fare in the primaries.

CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, expressed surprise on Monday by how Vice President JD Vance performed in a recent poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters against former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nimarata "Nikki" Haley, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and other prospects.

'The rest of the field are like going around in go-karts.'

Enten alluded to prediction market odds indicating that Vance is "running well ahead of the field" and that "nobody else is even close."

Polymarket puts Vance's chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028 at 54%. The site has the chances of the runner-up, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, securing the nomination at 9%. This high confidence in Vance's chances is similarly expressed on the PredictIt site as well as on the federally regulated prediction market Kalshi, which suggests Vance and Rubio have a 48% and 10% chance of securing the nomination, respectively.

"JD Vance is like Mario Andretti, and Marco Rubio and the rest of the field are like going around in go-karts at this point," said Enten. "That's really what we are looking at. JD Vance is the clear, heavy favorite at this time."

Enten noted that Vance's staggering early lead reflected in the prediction markets "is not coming out of nowhere" and directed CNN talking head Sara Sidner's attention to a poll conducted in October by the University of New Hampshire.

RELATED: 'All in': TPUSA's Andrew Kolvet sets sights on 2028 presidential candidate after AmFest

Photo by Caylo Seals/Getty Images

The poll found that among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, 51% said they would vote for Vance; 9% said they would vote for Haley; 8% said they would vote for Gabbard; 5% said they would vote for Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders; 4% would vote for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.); and 3% each would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

Calgary-born Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who appears poised to run as the kind of Republican President Donald Trump crushed in the 2016 and 2024 GOP primaries, proved unable to capture 1% in the poll.

"Take a look here! JD Vance at 51%!" said Enten. "The next closest is Nikki Haley, who's at 9 — who's at 9! I mean, what is that? That's 42 points ahead of the pack."

"There's a reason why he's such a heavy favorite in the prediction market so far, because if you win the GOP primary in New Hampshire, chances are, you're going to be the Republican nominee for president," added Enten.

When asked by Sidner whether it was rare to see an early lead of this magnitude, Enten said, "I looked back. Hitting 50% plus in the early New Hampshire polls for a non-sitting president — JD Vance is the only one."

"JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time," continued Enten.

While Vance's early lead is unprecedented, the last five sitting vice presidents who ran for president all became their parties' nominees.

A straw poll was also taken earlier this month at Turning Point USA's annual AmericaFest, where widowed CEO Erika Kirk endorsed the vice president.

Blake Neff, the producer of "The Charlie Kirk Show," noted that Vance won the AmFest straw poll "by more than Donald Trump won the 2024 one we did two years ago." Whereas 82.6% of respondents previously said they wanted to see Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee, 84.2% of respondents said they wanted to see Vance as their nominee in 2028.

The UNH poll that found a majority of likely GOP voters support Vance likewise found that there is a much closer race developing across the aisle.

Among those who plan to vote in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, 19% of respondents say they would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; 15% would vote for California Gov. Gavin Newsom; 14% would vote for New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; 11% would vote for failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris; 8% would vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.); and 6% would vote for Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

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Poll provides clear idea of who's poised to sweep 2028 Republican presidential primary



Those keen to wrest control of the GOP from MAGA conservatives and to resume the course charted by the party prior to President Donald Trump's 2016 election have their work cut out for them.

A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics revealed that Vice President JD Vance presently towers over his potential 2028 GOP primary opponents — including Calgary-born Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is poised to run as the kind of George W. Bush-era Republican that Trump crushed in the 2016 and 2024 primaries.

'Voters will sniff out anybody who has seemed to be sort of focused on themselves.'

When asked whom they would vote for if the election were held this month, 57% of respondents said that they would support Vance; 9% said Secretary of State Marco Rubio; 7% said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; 4% said Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy; 4% said former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nimarata "Nikki" Haley; 4% said Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard; 1% said Ted Cruz; and 1% said Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Two percent of respondents signaled they would vote for someone else, and 10% said they were unsure.

Sources close to the Trump administration recently told Politico that Rubio has telegraphed that he would support Vance if he chooses to run.

One source close to the White House noted that the "expectation is JD as [nominee] and Rubio as VP."

RELATED: The early social media reviews of Cruz's 2028 POTUS trial balloon are in

DeSantis, who secured less than 2% of the votes cast in the 2024 Republican primary before dropping out, recently told CNN's Jake Tapper, "I'm not thinking about anything because I think we have a president now who’s not even been in for a year. We've got a lot that we've got to accomplish."

The Florida governor may have taken the advice that James Blair, a former DeSantis staffer who now serves as Trump's White House deputy chief of staff, recently shared via Politico: "If you're a Republican that wants to run in 2028 right now, you need to focus on keeping Republicans in power for 2026. I think the number one thing everybody can do is focus on the team and helping their team and not focus on themselves."

"Voters will sniff out anybody who has seemed to be sort of focused on themselves," added Blair.

Last month, the University of New Hampshire's Granite State Poll found that while DeSantis didn't place in the top five Republican presidential primary candidates for 2028, he managed the fourth-highest favorability rating.

Vance placed first with a favorability rating among likely Republican primary voters of 77%; Rubio placed second with a 58% rating; Gabbard placed third with a 57% rating; DeSantis came fourth with a 56% rating; and Ramaswamy came fifth with 46%.

Cruz and Haley, meanwhile, were much further down the list with favorability ratings of 38% and 25%, respectively.

Gabbard, polling ahead of Cruz in the Saint Anselm College poll, has not made explicit any intention to run but indicated earlier this year on "The Megyn Kelly Show" that she "will never rule out any opportunity" to serve her country.

On the prediction website Polymarket, Vance is given a 55% chance of winning the primary.

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So Long, Nikki! | 3/6/24
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So Long, Nikki! | 3/6/24

What Nikki Haley's 2024 announcement means for the Republican Party and Trump



After winning only one primary on Super Tuesday, Nikki Haley has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race — but she stopped short of endorsing Donald Trump.

Rather than endorse the former president, she challenged him to win the support of those who supported her.

“It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that,” Haley said in a speech in Charleston, South Carolina.

“At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people,” she added.

Stu Burguiere is actually in agreement with Haley.

“You don’t win any national elections without them, you will not win any national elections without the Nikki Haley faction of the Republican Party voting for, let’s say Donald Trump, who’s going to be the nominee,” Burguiere says.

Trump was able to get all those votes in 2016 and most of them in 2020.

Glenn Beck doesn’t think this is too far-fetched.

“20% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say they will vote for Trump,” Glenn explains.

“I think the people who voted for Haley will end up voting for Trump just because the alternative is Hillary Clinton. Everything that we said Hillary Clinton would do, they’re doing. In fact, on steroids,” he adds.

To hear more, watch the clip below.


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Trump defeats Haley in Michigan Republican presidential primary



Former President Donald Trump's winning streak continued as he won the Michigan Republican presidential primary on Tuesday.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who has failed to defeat Trump in any of the Republican presidential nominating contests so far, remained in the race even after losing her home state to Trump last week. She has said that she has "no interest in a third-party candidacy."

As Trump continues to rack up wins, he appears to be poised to easily clinch the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

"Another MASSIVE win! Congratulations President Trump on tonight's victory in Michigan. Another step closer to MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. (P.S. Nikki, it's time to DROP OUT!)," GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas tweeted.

"Congratulations to President Trump for a decisive win in the Michigan primary. I'm hoping that sooner rather than later the Republican presidential primary will end so we can unite with President Trump as our nominee. He is the candidate who will defeat Joe Biden in the Fall and will get America back on track quickly. It is clear to me that the Republican Party faithful are behind President Trump in all corners of the country. It's time to move on to the general election," Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina stated in a post on X.

Ryan Binkley, a little-known candidate who failed to gain traction during the GOP nominating contest, announced on Tuesday that he was suspending his campaign and backing Trump. "Today, I am suspending my campaign for the Presidency of the United States of America and offering my endorsement and unwavering support for President Trump," Binkley noted in social media posts.

On the other side of the political aisle, President Joe Biden easily won in the Michigan Democratic presidential primary.

Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who, according to the results so far, performed worse than the "uncommitted" option, tweeted. "If you resent me for the audacity to challenge Joe Biden, at least you'll appreciate how relatively strong I'm making him look among primary voters!"

— (@)

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Warmonger Nikki Haley Loses in Her Own State | 2/26/24
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Warmonger Nikki Haley Loses in Her Own State | 2/26/24

Republican voters utterly humiliate Nikki Haley in Nevada primary: 'There will be more to come'



Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley lost to no one in particular by a landslide in Nevada's Republican primary this week.

While the non-binding contest Tuesday does not award any of the state's 26 Republican delegates — which are alternatively awarded in Thursday's GOP caucus — the humiliating result nevertheless served as another bleak omen for Haley, who maintains the race is "far from over" despite trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls by well over 50 points.

Trump was not on the Republican primary ballot, as he was instead focusing on winning the Nevada GOP's caucus later this week, where Haley is not competing. The Republican front-runner's absence left Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and handful of relative unknowns to duke it out among themselves for the largely symbolic prize.

Haley ultimately secured 30.8% of the vote. "None of these candidates" secured over twice as many votes, receiving 62.9%. Pence came in a distant third place with 4% of the vote.

Among the Nevadans to reject Haley and the other named candidates was Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), who indicated he would opt for "none of these candidates."

Washoe County Republican Party Chair Bruce Parks, a champion of the Thursday caucus, reportedly told voters to do likewise.

"They basically told us they don't care about us," Parks said after Haley's defeat. "By marking 'none of these candidates,' we respond in kind — we don’t care about you either."

Nevada GOP Chairman Michael McDonald intimated Haley's alleged contempt for Nevada voters was "reciprocated" Tuesday night.

McDonald told the Las Vegas Review-Journal, "I think the Republican voters spoke, and there will be more to come Thursday night."

The Nevada GOP chairman also shared a post on X from KTNV-TV's Steve Sebelius indicating that "not since the Democratic gubernatorial primary of 2014 has a candidate suffered such a humiliating defeat to None of These Candidates. But at least that one was close!"

Not since the Democratic gubernatorial primary of 2014 has a candidate suffered such a humiliating defeat to None of These Candidates. But at least that one was close!
— (@)

Despite her candidate losing to nobody in particular, Haley spokesman Olivia Perez-Cubas said the campaign is "full steam ahead in South Carolina and beyond," reported the Associated Press.

Trump gleefully mocked the former ambassador, writing, "A bad night for Nikki Haley. Losing by almost 30 points in Nevada to 'None of These Candidates.' Watch, she'll soon claim Victory!"

Haley noted on X Tuesday night, "Even on our worst days, we are blessed to live in America."

Ahead of the embarrassing vote, Haley's campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, pre-emptively suggested the presidential nomination process in the state was "rigged," reported The Hill.

"In terms of Nevada, we have not spent a dime nor an ounce of energy on Nevada," said Ankney. "We made the decision early on that we were not going to pay $55,000 to a Trump entity ... to participate in a process that was rigged for Trump."

"So Nevada is not and has never been our focus. Truly not sure what the Trump team is out to there, but they seem pretty spun up about it. But we are focused on South Carolina," added Ankney.

The South Carolina GOP primary will be held on Feb. 24.

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Trump defeats Haley in New Hampshire Republican presidential primary



Former President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, defeating Nikki Haley, who previously served as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. during a portion of Trump's White House tenure.

While New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu had endorsed Haley, polls had been indicating that Trump had a lead heading into the Granite State contest.

Undeclared voters could also vote in the primary. "An undeclared voter may vote in a state primary or a presidential primary," according to the New Hampshire secretary of state website. "You will be required to choose either a Democratic or Republican ballot when you go to vote."

Trump's New Hampshire victory came after he won the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses last week.

After Vivek Ramaswamy placed fourth in Iowa, he swiftly dropped out and endorsed Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who placed a distant second behind Trump in Iowa, announced on Sunday that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing the former president. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who dropped out after barely earning any votes in the Hawkeye State, has expressed support for Haley.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who launched then later dropped his own presidential bid last year, recently endorsed Trump. Haley appointed Scott to the U.S. Senate more than a decade ago while she was serving as South Carolina governor.

There was also an unsanctioned Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday.

"January 23rd is a non-binding presidential preference event and is meaningless and the NHDP and presidential candidates should take all steps possible not to participate," Minyon Moore and James Roosevelt Jr., co-chairs of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, declared in a letter earlier this month to New Hampshire Democratic Party chair Raymond Buckley. "No delegates or alternates shall be apportioned based on the results of the January 23, 2024 event."

While President Joe Biden did not appear on the Democratic presidential primary ballot in New Hampshire, voters could write him in.

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IOWA RECAP: Does ANY candidate have a chance at beating Trump?|
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IOWA RECAP: Does ANY candidate have a chance at beating Trump?|

WSJ editorial board suggests DeSantis drop out to allow for 'one on one' Trump vs. Haley showdown



The Wall Street Journal editorial board has opined that if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis believes former President Donald Trump cannot win the 2024 presidential contest, he should drop out of the GOP primary so that former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley can face off against Trump.

"Mr. DeSantis faces no clear path to the nomination. He's well behind Ms. Haley in New Hampshire and South Carolina. If he believes, as he says, that Mr. Trump can't win in November, he should leave the race and give Ms. Haley a chance to take on Mr. Trump one on one," the WSJ editorial board wrote.

Trump trounced other GOP presidential hopefuls during the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses on Monday while DeSantis came in a distant second place and Haley came in third.

Vivek Ramaswamy, who swiftly dropped out and endorsed Trump after a poor showing in Iowa, spoke at a Trump rally on Tuesday.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who beat Trump and others during the 2016 GOP Iowa presidential caucus, announced that he thinks the "race is over" and that he is "proud to endorse" Trump. "I look forward to supporting him enthusiastically," Cruz said.

Polls indicate that Trump is the frontrunner in next week's New Hampshire GOP presidential primary, with Haley, who has been endorsed by New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, trailing in second place.

"Ms. Haley has pursued a strategy of appealing to Republicans who either don't like Mr. Trump or are open to someone else, and that helped her finish a close third in Iowa," the Journal's editorial board wrote. "She has a chance to make a race of it in New Hampshire on Jan. 23, which is why Mr. Trump is attacking her so aggressively on TV."

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