CNN pollster says blue wall is collapsing as independents turn against Harris, toward Trump



CNN poll analyst Harry Enten unearthed more data that showed the election could be swinging decisively toward former President Donald Trump just weeks before Election Day.

'This is the type of movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of the electorate.'

Enten found that independent voters were slipping away from Vice President Kamala Harris just as the Democrat was looking to shore up support.

“What do we know about independents, right? Center of the electorate. You go last time around, Joe Biden won these voters by 11 points," Enten explained. "You look at September of 2024, a month ago, Kamala Harris was up five points among independents. You look now, though, look at this. She’s only up by two points among a key bloc, center of the electorate, down nine points from where Biden was at the end of the 2020 campaign."

He went on to say the case against Kamala worsens when the focus centers on the battleground states.

"What is going on in those key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the Great Lakes, that blue wall, right?” Enten continued.

“Joe Biden, last time around, won ’em by five points over Donald Trump. Look at where we are today," he said. "This is the type of movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of the electorate, up by a point. Now, of course, that’s well within any margin of error, right? But again, it‘s the movement. It’s the trend."

Enten then pointed out that in the presidential elections since 1952, the candidates who won independents went on to win the election 15 times, while those who lost independents won the presidency only three times.

While not decisive, the trend of independents turning toward Trump is a very bad sign for Democrats.

Video of Enten's analysis from CNN can be viewed at his social media account.

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CNN pollster warns Democrats against popping champagne over Harris polling: 'Donald Trump is very much in this race'



While many Democrats are celebrating a surge in support for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, CNN's polling analyst Harry Enten warns them that former President Donald Trump is likely to gain support based on historical trends.

Enten made the case for the race tightening up on CNN Tuesday.

While Harris is ahead in three swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — Enten pointed out that polling underestimated Trump's favorability in those states by 9% on average in 2016 and by 5% in 2020.

"The bottom line is this: If you have an idea, if you're a Kamala Harris fan and you wanna rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win."

Enten then pointed to polling that showed enthusiasm for Biden's re-election campaign had actually dropped slightly after Harris seized the nomination, while enthusiasm for Trump had actually increased in the same period.

"The bottom line here is yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we're not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost-certain-to-vote," he explained.

Finally, Enten argued that Trump is more popular generally at this point in the 2024 campaign than he was at the same point in 2020 and at the same point in 2016.

Enten posted video of the segment to his X account.

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