Democrats' losing strategy could push a political realignment



President-elect Donald Trump officially flipped Lake County, California, one month after the November 5 election. Trump's electoral win in Lake County is the latest indication of the landslide victory he enjoyed in the 2024 cycle.

Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote in two decades, even sweeping all seven swing states. The last candidate to win all battlegrounds was former President Ronald Reagan in 1984.

'It could actually be the beginnings of a Reagan-style political realignment if the Democrats don't make adjustments and do so in a hurry.'

Trump also flipped over 50 counties this cycle while Vice President Kamala Harris failed to flip any in her favor. Of those counties that flipped in Trump's favor, roughly half of them had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate this century. Trump also managed to shift every single state toward Republicans. Roughly 300 counties shifted more Democratic, without any actually flipping blue, while over 2,600 shifted more Republican.

"The data suggests that this was more than simply a decisive victory for Donald Trump," Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told Blaze News. "It could actually be the beginnings of a Reagan-style political realignment if the Democrats don't make adjustments and do so in a hurry."

One of Trump's most notable flips was South Texas' Starr County, a predominantly Hispanic border county. This ended one of the longest Democratic voting streaks in history, with the county voting for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1896. Trump also made inroads with Latinos in Florida, enjoying a double-digit swing in Miami-Dade County compared to his results in 2020.

Democratic support slipped across every demographic the party has historically held onto. Even with a black female candidate and a white working-class running mate, voters turned to Trump.

"We are losing, in front of our very eyes, some of the core elements of the Democratic coalition that we have held onto, to varying degrees, since the age of Roosevelt," Foxwell told Blaze News. "We have become a party of inner suburban wine clubs and book clubs. A relatively small, culturally homogeneous group of inner suburban, highly educated, relatively affluent liberals and progressives."

"That, to be sure, is a part of a strong Democratic coalition, but it cannot be the only part," Foxwell continued. "It cannot and it must not be the centerpiece around which we base our national political strategy, and I'm afraid that's what we're at risk of becoming."

Foxwell points out that the downfall of the Democratic Party is largely because it demands a highly stringent form of political and social orthodoxy from its voters that has become incompatible with many moderates. Although Democrats have championed diversity of identity, the party has remained intellectually homogeneous, which is exclusionary by nature.

"Democrats used to be the party of disruption, debate, and change, and now we have become a more intellectually homogeneous party in which we are not necessarily supposed to look alike, but we are certainly expected to think alike," Foxwell said. "When that happens, you become intellectually stagnant, and I honestly believe that this is one of the major reasons why the Democratic Party is losing its natural advantages."

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How Harris lost the election



President-elect Donald Trump secured his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris early Wednesday morning, and exit polling indicates which demographics may be responsible.

Harris failed to drive support among voting groups like women, Latino men, and young voters, despite being historically Democratic, according to a CNN analysis comparing exit polls from the past three election cycles. While Trump was able to mobilize support among unlikely demographics, Harris' inability to secure these key groups likely cost her the election.

While different demographics shifted in Trump's favor, his greatest advantage over Harris may have been one key issue.

Although Democrats have historically secured the female vote, Harris underperformed compared to her predecessors. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the female vote by 13 points in 2016, while President Joe Biden won it by 15 points in 2020. Harris, on the other hand, won the female vote by just 10 points, according to the latest CNN exit polling.

At the same time, Trump regained an edge with male voters that slightly slipped in 2020. Trump won the male vote by 11 points in 2016 but dipped down to just an 8-point advantage in 2020, according to CNN. This time around, Trump won the male vote by 10 points.

Latino men, more specifically, also shifted away from Harris and toward Trump. Clinton won Hispanic men by a staggering 31 points in 2016, and Biden won them by 23 points in 2020, according to CNN. Trump completely reversed this trend in 2024, winning Latino men by 10 points.

Minority voters across the board also swayed in Trump's favor. In 2016, Clinton won by 50 points among minority voters with a college degree and 56 points among minority voters without a college degree, according to CNN. Biden lost some ground in 2020, winning college-educated minority voters by 43 points and non-college-educated minority voters by 46 points. Harris continued this downward trend, winning among college-educated minorities by 35 points and non-college-educated minorities by just 32 points.

Trump also gained ground among young voters. In 2016, Clinton won among voters aged 18 to 29 by 19 points, while in 2020, Biden won among the same age range by 24 points, according to CNN. This time around, Trump shrunk the Democratic advantage among young voters, with Harris winning by just 13 points.

While different demographics shifted in Trump's favor, his greatest advantage over Harris may have been one key issue.

In 2024, roughly two-thirds of voters said the economy was poor, and nearly half of voters said they are doing worse now than they were four years ago, according to CNN. This sentiment inevitably gave Trump an advantage over Harris, who has served alongside Biden during these last four years.

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Florida’s Puerto Rican County Swings Dramatically For Trump Despite Democrats’ ‘Garbage’ Smears

[rebelmouse-proxy-image https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot-2024-11-05-at-10.28.56 PM-1200x675.png crop_info="%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Screenshot-2024-11-05-at-10.28.56%5Cu202fPM-1200x675.png%22%7D" expand=1]The Osceola County results indicate that Democrats' 'racism' pearl-clutching and broken policies don't work for nonwhite voters anymore.

Crucial demographics may hold the key to a Trump victory as race tightens



Key voting blocs that have voted reliably blue are underperforming compared to previous election cycles, which could send warning signs to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. At the same time, increased turnout from some reliably red demographics could give former President Donald Trump the edge he needs.

One of the most glaring disadvantages for Democrats going into the election is the comparatively low turnout from urban voters. At this point in the race, there is a 12.8-point deficit in urban voter turnout across battlegrounds compared to 2020. Rural voter turnout is comparatively higher, with just a 3.9-point difference.

This could be particularly harmful for Democrats this election cycle, given that the majority of urban voters are Democratic and a majority of rural voters are Republican.

Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.

"Regardless of how we slice and dice the demographics, rural voters are going to be very supportive of the former president," Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told Blaze News. "Urban voters won't vote in lockstep, but they will be disproportionately in support of Kamala Harris, so that demographic turnout is going to matter."

There is also a partisan divide between male and female voters, as men tend to lean more Republican while women lean more Democratic. Although women vote in greater numbers than men do, they are underperforming this election cycle, which could throw a wrench into Harris' chances.

"It's not just a 'get out the vote rally.' It's a 'you've got to vote because of X, Y, and Z," McHenry told Blaze News. "There's definitely a bit more urgency than what we would normally see from Democrats at this stage of the race."

Women voters dipped down by 7.9 points across swing states compared to 2020, while men dipped down by seven points. Even though more women have voted than men, their deficit combined with slipping male support could put Harris' campaign in jeopardy.

Declines in black and Hispanic votes could also put Harris in trouble. Compared to 2020, there is a 10.1-point turnout deficit among black voters in battlegrounds and an 11.7-point decline among Latino voters. Given that both Hispanic and black voters have overwhelmingly voted for Democrats in the past, this decline could threaten Harris' campaign.

Harris has certainly taken notice of this trend. Over the past month, her campaign has released a tailored "opportunity agenda" for both black and Hispanic men.

"The idea that there's this sort of opportunity agenda targeted at specific demographics, and the fact that Kamala Harris has drafted Barack Obama to turn out black males and essentially extending her reach to get people to turn out, shows that they're definitely concerned about getting the traditional Democratic base out to the polls," McHenry told Blaze News.

Although early voter turnout looks rosy for the Trump camp, the race is still too close to call.

"Like most poker players would say, just give me one of the hands, and I'll beat you with that," McHenry told Blaze News. "Honestly, it really is so close that it's hard to say."

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ROOKE: Media Hit On Trump Accidentally Confirms Harris Has Major Election Problem Brewing

Harris is losing critical demographics

Harris 'terrified' as she falls out of favor with crucial voting bloc



Vice President Kamala Harris is facing another electoral dip among Latino voters, despite being a historically reliable voter demographic for Democrats.

Former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Harris by 11 points among Latino voters at 49% while the Democratic nominee trails at just 38%, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from Monday. While Trump has made inroads with the demographic, this slip in support is cause for alarm for the Harris camp.

Latinos have consistently voted in favor of Democratic presidential candidates. In 2020, President Joe Biden secured 65% of the Hispanic vote while Trump pulled 32% support. Similarly, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won 66% of the Hispanic vote with 28% supporting Trump in 2016.

"She needs to stop targeting specific groups and instead say, 'I'm going to be the president for all Americans,'" Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told Blaze News.

"She's got enough leaks in her boat now that she just needs a new boat," McHenry continued.

This trend could prove particularly consequential for the 2024 presidential race in swing states with substantial Hispanic populations. Roughly a third of the population in Arizona and Nevada is Latino, two states that have become increasingly tight for the presidential hopefuls.

In Arizona, Trump is currently an average of 1.8 points ahead of Harris, which is a slimmer margin compared to a 4.2 point lead in July after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Trump is also holding a 0.9 point advantage in Nevada, which Harris has managed to narrow from four points in late July.

"This puts Nevada in jeopardy, and it puts Arizona in jeopardy for sure, but it also puts Georgia and North Carolina in jeopardy," McHenry told Blaze News. "It's not a gigantic share of the population, but it may be enough, especially in the case of Georgia, where there was an 11,000 vote margin last time. At this point, she could lose that in almost any demographic."

The Democratic nominee is still trying to recoup her losses. Harris' campaign released a list of policy proposals Tuesday that she said would "deliver real changes for Latino men and their families" just a week after unveiling her "opportunity agenda" for black men.

Similar to last week's pitch, Harris is offering up no-interest, fully forgivable small-business loans for Hispanics, down-payment assistance for first-time Hispanic homebuyers, and a $6,000 child tax credit for Latino families.

"She's got 55 plans to increase the deficit, but what is she really trying to do?" McHenry told Blaze News. "There's no real sense of an overarching goal. There's no real sense of leadership when you're cherry-picking the groups you're talking to."

Harris is attempting to regain ground she has lost in light of her extremely unpopular track record. The majority of Hispanic voters, 55%, said they disapprove of her job as vice president while just 35% said they approved, according to the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

Hispanics also prefer Trump over Harris to handle issues that are most important to them. Among Hispanics, Trump outperformed Harris 58% to 34% on the economy and 54% to 38% on immigration, according to the poll. The majority, 56%, said Trump would provide strong leadership while just 38% said the same for Harris.

"I just think that the Biden-Harris administration's record on the economy is forcing a lot of people to vote based on their pocketbooks rather than social issues, especially the Hispanic voter," McHenry told Blaze News.

"She's terrified that she's going to lose," McHenry continued. "She's not going to lose Hispanic voters overall, but she's terrified she's going to lose too much of the Hispanic vote."

The Harris campaign did not respond to a request for comment from Blaze News.

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NEW polling reveals the working class is abandoning Harris for Trump — here’s why



As Election Day draws dangerously nearer, everyone is keeping a close watch on the polling for both candidates. According to Blaze Media senior editor for politics Christopher Bedford, Trump is polling at record numbers among demographics that typically skew Democrat — like black and Hispanic voters. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is losing working-class voters, as the VP’s efforts have been hyper-concentrated on securing the suburban women vote, which is why Harris has been focusing primarily on the issue of “unfettered access to [abortion].”

Jill Savage from “Blaze News Tonight” and Blaze News editor in chief Matthew Peterson join Bedford to discuss the new polling results.

“If Trump didn't have mean tweets, which he's always had ... would he get that much more percentage of, say, white women and therefore win?” Peterson asks Bedford.

“Donald Trump is not your typical Republican. A typical Republican who may not be alienating white women at the same level also wouldn't be polling at historic levels for black voters that we’ve not seen since Richard Nixon’s literal first run [in 1960]. ... You wouldn’t see Hispanic voters changing the same way,” says Bedford.

However, Democrats have also contributed to driving the black and Hispanic demographics toward the GOP.

“The Democrats becoming a racial party that put African Americans first and put illegal immigration on a pedestal — those two things were very alienating to a lot of Hispanic voters,” “working class voters,” as well as “black men,” Bedford explains.

“Their whole demographics-as-destiny plan kind of backfired,” he adds.

The fact that Trump can “walk into an Hispanic bar” or “walk into a black neighborhood” and feels “comfortable in his skin” has done more to secure these minorities' votes than the GOP’s “fancy outreach efforts,” Bedford tells Savage and Peterson.

However, there’s something the GOP needs to be very careful about if they want Trump’s success to continue.

To hear Bedford’s warning for Republicans, watch the clip above.

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