Ten months ahead of November’s midterms, political and economic crosscurrents are colliding. Which of these conflicting trends prevail will greatly shape the next two years. And possibly even longer.

Midterm elections are always important. Besides gauging the country’s political mood, they have proven integral to maintaining America’s political equilibrium.

For good or ill, incumbent presidents and their party own the economy. The question is: Which economy will Republicans own?

They are the “ebb” to the “flow” of America’s political tide. Historically, every four years a large tide of voters go to the polls and elect a president. Then every two years, the large voter flow ebbs back, and the president’s party suffers accordingly.

This midterm is particularly important to Trump because he has proven susceptible to being baited by his opponents. After 2018, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) returned to the House speakership and unrelentingly harassed Trump over the last two years of his first term. These distractions and obstructions — especially during COVID — were undoubtedly a factor in Trump’s narrow 2020 Electoral College defeat.

Today’s political crosscurrents are pronounced. We know the president’s party historically loses seats. The last two two-term presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, suffered congressional losses averaging 22 House seats and 7.5 Senate seats.

Such losses would hand Democrats control of Congress, giving them a House majority larger than Republicans’ narrow edge and a Senate majority bigger than the GOP’s current six-seat margin. Such outcomes would end Trump’s legislative agenda, and Democrats could set their own. To understand the potential impact, play back the recent funding impasse when Democrats shut the government down for the longest period ever — despite lacking control of either chamber.

While Trump would be able to veto Democratic legislation and Republican numbers would be ample to uphold his vetoes, Democrats would have a formal hand in shaping the political agenda. This could greatly help their 2028 presidential prospects.

Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Current politics are blunting the historical midterm flow, however. Trump is divisive, with just a 43.4% favorable rating; however, his job approval rating of 43.1% is higher than Obama’s (42.4%) at the same point in his second term. Further, Democrats are in abysmal shape with just a 32.5% favorability rating.

The current 2026 political map is also favorable to Republicans. While they have more seats (22 to 13) to protect in the Senate, the toss-up seats are evenly split: Republicans with Maine and North Carolina; Democrats with Georgia and Michigan. Mid-decade House redistricting efforts are also likely to favor Republicans somewhat; if the Supreme Court should allow race to be disregarded in drawing House districts when it rules on the Louisiana case currently before it, then even more redistricting could occur and amount to an even greater Republican advantage.

Today’s economic crosscurrents are equally pronounced. For good or ill, incumbent presidents and their party own the economy. The question is: Which economy will Republicans own?

At the micro level, the growing issue is “affordability.” Nationally, this is an overhang of inflation that surged during Biden’s administration and peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 — a 40-year high.

Locally, affordability played well in New York City (which has been plagued by Democratic policies of rent control and excessive taxation, regulation, and litigation) in 2025’s mayoral race. It also played well in Virginia, where it linked powerfully into the record-long government shutdown. Democrats are therefore seizing on the issue with some success — particularly in the establishment media — and are trying to nationalize it.

At the macro level, the economy is a different story. Despite “expert” predictions that Trump’s tariffs, green agenda rollback, attack on illegal immigration, and reduction in government would combine to wreck the economy, the reverse has occurred. In Trump’s first two full quarters in office, GDP is averaging over 4% growth: up 3.8% in the second quarter and 4.3% in the third. Inflation has also been moderate — 2.7% in November — certainly not the spike experts predicted and a far cry from the previous four years.

MediaProduction via iStock/Getty Images

So politically, depending on your perspective, Republicans look to outperform historically. Their Senate majority looks safe for now, with the chance that Republicans could even gain a seat or two. By contrast, Republicans’ House majority looks vulnerable; this could be offset slightly by current mid-decade redistricting efforts. Yet even just half the average loss of the last two administrations in their second midterms would mean an 11-seat swing and a 226-209 Democratic majority.

Economically, the question is whether the micro or the macro prevails. Can the micro become a national mood outside Democratic areas, or will the macro of strong GDP growth and moderate inflation have time to prevail? Expect political midterm fortunes to respond accordingly.

What is certain is that the midterms will shape the last two years of Trump’s second term. And possibly determine who will run and who will win the presidency in 2028.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.

‘Nations were God’s idea’: Why Christians must support strong borders

Former President Barack Obama may have deported more immigrants than President Trump, but that isn’t stopping the left from accusing supporters of Trump’s immigration policy of being heartless and cruel.

“Biden also deported over a million people,” BlazeTV host Allie Beth Stuckey says on “Relatable.” “Did you hear about ICE raids under Biden? Did you hear about ICE raids under Obama? Did you hear about kids in cages under any of these administrations, even though that was happening, if you want to call these detention centers cages?”

“Did you hear about all of the lost children who were abandoned and not accounted for under these administrations? Did you hear about the sex trafficking, the human trafficking, the drug and weaponry trafficking that was happening under these administrations?” she asks.

“No, it’s not because it wasn’t happening. It’s because the media is in bed with the Democrats, and they don’t want you to see the Democrats doing things that they are criticizing Donald Trump for,” she adds.

Stuckey calls this a “weaponization of empathy.”

And Democrats weaponize your empathy to make you feel like the well-being of a stranger who lives a world away should be a priority in your own life — but Stuckey couldn’t disagree more.

“Countries are like families, just on a bigger scale. You put the safety and security of your people first. Not because you hate people from other countries, but because you love people in your country. It is not possible for us to equally prioritize all of the interests of everyone in the world and all of their safety and security,” she says.

“I believe we see that principle in Romans 13, that governments were instituted by God to punish the wrongdoer and reward the good,” she continues, adding, “You take care of your people. Nations were God’s idea. Borders were God’s idea. Government, laws, all God’s idea, and they are good.”

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The Federalist Staff’s 2025 Winners And Losers Of The Year

From winners like J.D. Vance and DOGE to losers like Jake Tapper and (also) DOGE, here are The Federalist Staff's picks for 2025.

The courts are running the country — and Trump is letting it happen

One of the most consequential developments of 2025 has received far less scrutiny than it deserves: the steady surrender of executive authority to an unelected judiciary.

President Trump was elected to faithfully execute the laws of the United States, yet his administration increasingly behaves as if federal judges hold final authority over every major policy decision — including those squarely within the president’s constitutional and statutory powers.

Judicial supremacy thrives on abdication. It advances because presidents comply, lawmakers defer, and voters are told this arrangement is normal.

By backing down whenever district courts issue sweeping injunctions, the administration is reinforcing a dangerous precedent: that no executive action is legitimate until the judiciary permits it. That assumption has no basis in the Constitution, but it is rapidly becoming the governing norm.

The problem became unmistakable when federal judges began granting standing to abstract plaintiffs challenging Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to protect ICE agents under attack. Many assumed such cases would collapse on appeal. Instead, the Supreme Court last week declined to lift an injunction blocking the Guard’s deployment in Illinois, signaling that the judiciary now claims authority to second-guess core commander-in-chief decisions.

Over the dissent of Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, and Neil Gorsuch, the court allowed the Seventh Circuit’s decision to stand. That ruling held that violent attacks on ICE agents in Chicago did not amount to a “danger of rebellion” sufficient to justify Guard deployment and did not “significantly impede” the execution of federal immigration law.

That conclusion alone should alarm anyone who still believes in separation of powers.

No individual plaintiff alleged personal injury by a Guardsman. No constitutional rights were violated. The plaintiff was the state of Illinois itself, objecting to a political determination made by the president under statutory authority granted by Congress. Courts are not empowered to adjudicate such abstract disputes over executive judgment.

Even if judges disagree with the president’s assessment of the threat environment, their opinion carries no greater constitutional weight than his. The commander in chief is charged with executing the laws and protecting federal personnel. Courts are not.

If judges can decide who has standing, define the scope of their own authority, and then determine the limits of executive power, constitutional separation of powers collapses entirely. What remains is not judicial review but judicial supremacy.

And that is precisely what we are witnessing.

Courts now routinely insert themselves into immigration enforcement, national security decisions, tariff policy, federal grants, personnel disputes, and even the content of government websites. The unelected, life-tenured branch increasingly functions as a super-legislature and shadow executive, vetoing or mandating policy at will.

Cemile Bingol via iStock/Getty Images

What, then, remains for the people acting through elections?

If judges control immigration, spending, enforcement priorities, and foreign policy, why bother holding congressional or presidential elections at all? The Constitution’s framers never intended courts to serve as the ultimate policymakers. They were designed to be the weakest branch, confined to resolving concrete cases involving actual injuries.

Trump’s defenders often argue that patience and compliance will eventually produce favorable rulings. That belief is not only naïve — it is destructive.

For every narrow win Trump secures on appeal, the so-called institutionalist bloc on the court — Chief Justice John Roberts, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett — uses it to justify adverse outcomes elsewhere. Worse, because lower courts enjoin nearly every significant action, the administration rarely reaches the Supreme Court on clean constitutional grounds. The damage is done long before review occurs.

Consider the clearest example of all: the power of the purse.

Congress passed a budget reconciliation bill explicitly defunding Planned Parenthood. The bill cleared both chambers and was signed into law. Under the Constitution, appropriations decisions belong exclusively to Congress.

Yet multiple federal judges have enjoined that provision, effectively ordering the executive branch to continue sending taxpayer dollars to abortion providers in defiance of enacted law. Courts have not merely interpreted the statute; they have overridden it.

That raises an unavoidable question: Does the president have a duty to enforce the laws of Congress — or to obey judicial demands that contradict them?

Continuing to fund Planned Parenthood after Congress prohibited it is not neutrality. It is executive acquiescence to judicial nullification of legislative power.

The same pattern appears elsewhere.

Security clearances fall squarely within executive authority, yet the first Muslim federal judge recently attempted to block the president from denying clearance to a politically connected lawyer. Immigration, long recognized as a sovereign prerogative, has been transformed by courts into a maze of invented rights for noncitizens — including a supposed First Amendment right to remain in the country while promoting Hamas.

States fare no better. When West Virginia sought to ban artificial dyes from its food supply, an Obama-appointed federal judge intervened. When states enact laws complementing federal immigration enforcement, courts strike them down. But sanctuary laws that obstruct federal authority often receive judicial protection.

Heads, illegal aliens win. Tails, the people lose.

Moor Studio via iStock/Getty Images

What we are witnessing is adverse possession — squatter’s rights — of constitutional power. As Congress passes fewer laws and the executive hesitates to assert its authority, courts eagerly fill the vacuum. In 2025, Congress enacted fewer laws than in any year since at least 1989. Meanwhile, judges effectively “passed” nationwide policies affecting millions of Americans.

This did not happen overnight. Judicial supremacy thrives on abdication. It advances because presidents comply, lawmakers defer, and voters are told this arrangement is normal.

It is not.

Trump cannot comply his way out of this crisis. No president can. A system in which courts claim final authority over every function of government is incompatible with republican self-rule.

The Constitution does not enforce itself. Separation of powers exists only if each branch is willing to defend its role.

Right now, the presidency is failing that test.

Leftist radicals doxx ICE agents with ‘WANTED’ flyers in Pennsylvania

A Pennsylvania resident returned from grocery shopping to discover a “WANTED” flyer affixed to the resident's vehicle.

The flyer, provided to Blaze News, features photographs of four Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and reads, “WANTED: ICE AGENTS TERRORIZING WORKING PEOPLE.”

'ICE is focusing on the worst first through targeted enforcement. However, it is also a crime to live in this country illegally.'

It urged State College residents to share information about the federal officials, directing them to send details to a Proton Mail email address “if you see these ICE agents or have information about them.”

The flyer claimed that federal immigration officials “kidnapped 24 immigrant workers in State College [on] August 19.”

“THEY ARE ENEMIES OF WORKING PEOPLE AND ARE NOT WELCOME ANYWHERE IN OUR COMMUNITY,” it read. “SHARE WIDELY TO DEFEND IMMIGRANT WORKERS! DRIVE ICE OUT OF CENTRE COUNTY!”

It was unclear who created the flyer.

Image source: Anonymous tip

The Department of Homeland Security has reported a drastic uptick in assaults against ICE agents amid the rise of far-left activists attempting to doxx federal authorities.

The flyer’s mention of the August arrests appeared to refer to Enforcement and Removal Operations' “targeted enforcement operation in Bellefonte,” according to a press release from ICE.

The agency noted that a suspected MS-13 gang member was among the 24 arrested as well as another individual with several criminal convictions, including for assault. Another seven individuals had final orders of removal, the agency reported.

Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images

“ICE is focusing on the worst first through targeted enforcement. However, it is also a crime to live in this country illegally,” ERO Philadelphia Field Office Director Brian McShane stated about the arrests. “Knowing this, ICE has been empowered to vigorously search out, arrest, and remove anyone violating federal immigration law.”

During a press conference following news of the arrests, several immigrant rights groups claimed that many of those arrested were traveling to work at a construction site when they were detained.

The DHS did not respond to requests for comment.

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The Great Replacement isn’t a theory. It’s the plan.

The Great Replacement theory is a conjecture popularized by French writer Renaud Camus in his 2011 book, “Le Grand Remplacement,” claiming that globalist elites are deliberately orchestrating mass immigration of non-white people into Western countries to demographically replace and ultimately disempower or even eradicate white European populations.

It’s often branded as a far-right conspiracy theory, but just look at the evidence:

Mass illegal immigration is orchestrated or deliberately enabled under progressive administrations, despite polls indicating that most citizens want less immigration.

Skyrocketing housing costs, student debt, stagnant wages, and taxes make it nearly impossible for young white/middle-class natives to afford children, while many immigrant households (legal and illegal) get access to welfare, EITC, child tax credits, Medicaid, and housing aid that effectively subsidize higher fertility or larger families.

Politicians, corporate media, and advertising openly celebrate that the country is becoming “majority-minority,” cheering it as a moral and cultural improvement.

Anyone who complains about the speed or scale of immigration (even mildly) gets instantly branded “racist,” “white supremacist,” or “xenophobic,” faces censorship, bans, and job cancellation, and is shut out of respectable discourse.

So it’s not just a theory. It’s a scheme that’s very much in action right now.

“Demographic replacement of the American stock is the plan in order to manipulate elections in the democracy,” says Auron MacIntyre, BlazeTV host of “The Auron MacIntyre Show.”

He plays a clip from White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller telling Sean Hannity the same thing.

“The Biden administration, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, devised a scheme to fly illegal aliens into the country and then to escort them en masse across the border by the millions and to give them something known as parole, which gives them a work permit, which gives them a Social Security number, which gives them access to the voting booth,” Miller declared. “This was the plan all along.”

To its core, the plan is deeply undemocratic, MacIntyre explains. “The whole idea of the democracy is that it represents the beliefs and will of the people and that the popular sovereignty is supposed to guide the politicians,” he says.

“So if instead of the popular sovereignty guiding the politicians, the politicians [via immigration] can create and manufacture popular sovereignty in their favor, then they can control the entire system.”

And that’s exactly what the Democrat Party wants, he says — to secure all future elections by turning the nation into a blue blob of welfare-dependents who will reliably vote Democrat to keep their benefits.

“[The Great Replacement theory] is not a conspiracy theory. This is not some weird internet idea. This is the plan of the Democratic Party. This is what they want. This is their political strategy,” MacIntyre reiterates.

The masses of immigrants from Afghanistan, Somalia, and Venezuela — they’re “here for a reason,” he insists. “They’re here to replace you.”

“You address this, or the country drowns.”

To hear Auron’s in-depth breakdown of the Great Replacement theory, watch the video above.

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Making a list and checking it twice: ICE’s year-end roundup of the most heinous illegal alien invaders

Over the past 11 months, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and other federal agencies have worked to put away numerous murderers, pedophiles, rapists, gang members, drug traffickers, and terrorists.

The Department of Homeland Security listed over a dozen of the “worst of the worst” criminal illegal aliens who were arrested by federal law enforcement agents in 2025 in a press release exclusively obtained by Blaze News.

The department stated that 70% of ICE’s arrests were illegal aliens who were either convicted of or charged with a crime in the United States.

'Americans can be proud of DHS law enforcement who worked around the clock this year to remove the worst of the worst from American neighborhoods.'

The DHS year-end roundup highlighted ICE New Orleans’ arrest of Olvin Rodriguez-Inestroza, a Honduran national with active warrants for 394 counts of pornography involving juveniles and two counts of sexual abuse of an animal.

In July, the then-22-year-old pleaded guilty to distribution of child pornography after investigators found hundreds of disturbing photos and videos on his phone, including some involving toddlers.

Olvin Rodriguez-Inestroza. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Federal agents also arrested Diego Barron-Esquivel, a Mexican national who was sentenced to 20 years in prison for violently assaulting and strangling an ICE officer in February in Wichita, Kansas. Barron-Esquivel was accused of consistently harassing his former spouse, and he was previously arrested on multiple counts of domestic battery, protection order violations, aggravated robbery, felony theft, and other offenses.

Diego Barron-Esquivel. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Jaan Shah Safi, an Afghan national, entered the country under former President Joe Biden’s “Operation Allies Welcome” in 2021. He was previously arrested for allegedly providing support to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-Khorasan, also referred to as ISIS-K. According to the DHS, Safi provided weapons to his father, who is a commander of an Afghan militia group. The DHS announced in early December that ICE agents arrested Safi in Waynesboro, Virginia, after his Temporary Protected Status application was terminated.

Jaan Shah Safi. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

ICE captured Gerson Emir Cuadra Soto, an MS-13 gang member from Honduras who is believed to have illegally entered the U.S. in 2022 after he allegedly bribed his way out of jail in his home country. He is wanted in Honduras for a quadruple homicide and is an alleged member of an assassination squad. Federal immigration agents caught up to Cuadra Soto in Grand Island, Nebraska, on December 8.

Gerson Emir Cuadra Soto. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Jose Alfredo Uzeta, a Mexican national, was accused of performing dental procedures without a license. He was convicted of dentistry act violation and indecent assault in Harris County, Texas.

Jose Alfredo Uzeta. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Rafael Alberto Cadena-Sosa, from Mexico, was accused of running a sex trafficking operation in Miami, Florida, with his family. ICE Los Angeles arrested Cadena-Sosa in San Pedro, California, in December. According to the Department of Justice, he and his family approached females, some as young as 14, in Mexico to lure them into the U.S. under false promises of work opportunities. Once in the U.S., they allegedly imposed a smuggling debt and used threats and violence to force the females into engaging in prostitution 12 hours a day, six days a week.

Rafael Alberto Cadena-Sosa. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

ICE agents also rounded up Antonio Israel Lazo-Quintanilla, from El Salvador, who is a confirmed gang member of the 18th Street Gang, which is designated a foreign terrorist organization. He is wanted in his home country for aggravated homicide, extortion, drug possession, and other felonies. Federal agents nabbed Lazo-Quintanilla in March.

Antonio Israel Lazo-Quintanilla. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Walter Leonel Perez Rodriguez, from El Salvador, was convicted of sexual assault of a child under 17 years old. His criminal history also includes multiple DUIs, child fondling, and illegal re-entering of the U.S. During his November arrest, the convicted pedophile allegedly assaulted an ICE officer with a metal coffee cup, resulting in a laceration that required 13 stitches.

Walter Leonel Perez Rodriguez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

ICE agents arrested Thao Van Cao, a Vietnamese national who is a member of the Asian Cheap Boy criminal gang. His lengthy rap sheet includes 25 convictions for crimes such as flight to avoid prosecution, possession of a controlled substance, second-degree robbery, cruelty toward the elderly, arson, and theft.

Thao Van Cao. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Aldrin Guerrero-Munoz was picked up by federal immigration agents in October. The criminal illegal alien was previously sentenced to 32 years in prison for the intentional murder of his 3-month-old son.

Aldrin Guerrero-Munoz. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

ICE apprehended Jung Choi, a 53-year-old from South Korea. She was sentenced to 11 years in prison for voluntary manslaughter after she and her male companion were accused of murdering his wife.

Jung Choi. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Jonatan Monzon-Olivares, a Guatemalan national, was taken off the street in August. He had been arrested 38 times with 15 convictions for crimes including sexual assault, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, possession of stolen property, and obstructing justice.

Jonatan Monzon-Olivares. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Federal agents nabbed Alejandro Lima-Ramirez, who was previously arrested two dozen times in California and Oregon. He has 16 convictions, including for drug trafficking, robbery, fraud, and carrying a concealed weapon.

Alejandro Lima-Ramirez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

In August, ICE agents apprehended Michael Kabiona, from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He was sentenced to 12 years in prison after he was found guilty in 2015 of repeatedly raping his stepdaughter, starting when she was 9 years old.

Michael Kabiona. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Pedro Luis Ortiz-Mendez and Jose Vicente Ortiz-Mendez, brothers from Mexico, were also arrested by federal immigration agents in August. The two men are wanted in their home country for multiple murders.

Pedro Luis Ortiz-Mendez and Jose Vicente Ortiz-Mendez. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

Lastly, the DHS highlighted this year’s arrest of Yehia Elham Badawi, an Egyptian national with a lengthy criminal record, including robbery, aggravated assault, and reckless endangerment, among other violent felonies. His convictions stem from a 1994 shoot-out that seriously injured a Philadelphia police officer.

Yehia Elham Badawi. Image source: Department of Homeland Security

“Americans can be proud of DHS law enforcement who worked around the clock this year to remove the worst of the worst from American neighborhoods. Our law enforcement has put their lives on the line to arrest murderers, pedophiles, rapists, gang members, and terrorists,” said DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin.

McLaughlin stated that under the leadership of President Donald Trump and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, "criminals are not welcome in the U.S. If you come to our country and break our laws, we will find you, arrest you, and deport you.”

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