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CNN analyst: Public opinion has shifted amid shutdown — but not for the party you'd expect



Nearing the one-month mark, the government shutdown has caused increased anxiety as Republicans stand fast against Democrat demands. However, new polling shows some surprising shifts in public opinion.

Explaining the results of new polls from AP-NORC and Quinnipiac, CNN data analyst Harry Enten demonstrated that Republicans have little to no reason to "give in" in this battle in the Senate.

'This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on a generic ballot at this point in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years.'

To begin, Enten showed that the Republican brand in general gained two points in popularity: "That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped."

Approval for congressional Republicans has also increased by five points since the shutdown began, according to Enten's analysis.

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Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

"You might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand — but in fact, it hasn’t."

Enten demonstrated that the shutdown has not only significantly rallied the Republican base — it has also done well with independents.

"Something could rally the base but alienate those in the middle — or something could rally those in the middle but alienate the base. But the truth is, we’re not seeing that. What we’re seeing is that the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents, and it’s also gotten better among Republicans as well."

Enten also showed that Democrats are in a "considerably worse" position ahead of the 2026 midterms. While still ahead of Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are up only three points now, compared to +11 points at this point in 2017, a year before the 2018 midterms.

"This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on a generic ballot at this point in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years."

"So again, what’s the electoral reason that Republicans would give in at this point?" Enten repeated.

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Election analyst just noticed something about the NH primary no one else caught



Despite her hopes to win the New Hampshire primary, Nikki Haley has found herself in Donald Trump’s shadow once again.

It’s speculated that many of Haley’s supporters are who Dave Rubin calls “crossover people,” or voters who typically consider themselves liberals but are now voting Republican because of various issues they’re seeing among the Democratic Party — perhaps most notably the likelihood that Joe Biden will be the party’s nominee.

Unsurprisingly, many longtime conservatives have accused Nikki Haley of being a RINO, which likely explains her popularity among those crossover voters.

Political analyst David Chalian has confirmed that this likely is true by looking at the data from the New Hampshire primary.

“In these exit poll results, you see a Mars and Venus universe for Haley and Trump coalitions,” Chalian told CNN’s Jake Tapper.

“Among Trump voters, 70% of them, according to our exit polls, are registered Republicans,” while “27% of his voters are registered undeclared or independents.”

In stark contrast, “among Haley voters, 70% are registered undeclared,” and “only 27% are registered Republicans.”

“It’s a complete reversal!” exclaims Chalian.

However, the data gets even more interesting.

“We also see this when asking people, ‘Did Joe Biden legitimately win the 2020 election?’... Among Trump voters, 80% say no,” compared to the “83% of Haley voters” who claim “Joe Biden was the legitimate winner in 2020.”

“It's just worth noting who those crossover people went to,” says Dave, “and you can either then say, ‘Okay, that means that they're not really Republicans and they'll never vote for a Republican,’ or you could say, ‘Oh, these are people who could potentially vote for a Republican like Nikki; they just will not vote for Trump.”’


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