Debt spiral looms as Trump tests tariffs to tame rates



Following the market’s reaction to Donald Trump’s recent tariff hikes, many investors remain fixated on short-term stock declines. But I’m less concerned about the immediate drop in equities and more focused on the broader ripple effects — especially given the current state of U.S. fiscal policy.

The Trump administration inherited serious economic challenges from the last four years of Bidenomics, a mess made much worse by unsustainable levels of deficit spending.

A stock market downturn could cut tax revenue significantly. In that case, any interest savings might be wiped out — or worse.

U.S. debt has surpassed 120% of GDP. Deficits now resemble those of a wartime economy. The government’s interest payments exceed defense spending — a major warning sign for any nation. Meanwhile, inflation remains stubbornly high.

The new administration took office facing high interest rates — not historically high, but elevated relative to recent norms, especially given the nearly $37 trillion in national debt — and a strong U.S. dollar. That hinders Trump’s policy options.

Given that context, are tariffs a strategic move to lower interest rates, refinance the debt, and buy the administration some breathing room? If so, can that approach work — and at what cost?

Roughly $7 trillion in U.S. debt is scheduled for refinancing this year. Add a projected $2 trillion deficit, and the government faces an enormous financing challenge.

The administration may be betting that aggressive tariff policy triggers a “flight to safety,” prompting investors to move money out of equities and into long-term government bonds. Greater demand for bonds would push their prices higher and yields lower, since bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

We saw some evidence of this last week when the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4%, though it rebounded above 4% by Monday.

A stock market sell-off could pressure the Federal Reserve to cut short-term interest rates. So far, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has shown no willingness to step in — but that could change.

The strategy carries significant risk. Federal tax revenue depends heavily on both economic growth and stock market performance. If markets continue to tumble, government revenue could shrink, adding further strain to an already fragile fiscal outlook.

Even if yields on the 10-year Treasury dropped by 100 basis points (or 1%), and the government managed to refinance all $9 trillion in scheduled debt, the interest savings would total only about $90 billion.

But that scenario is unlikely. Issuing more Treasury bonds increases supply, which typically pushes yields higher — unless some outside force steps in. And if such intervention is possible, it raises a larger question: why pursue this risky strategy in the first place?

There are also other risks to consider. A stock market downturn could cut tax revenue significantly. In that case, any interest savings might be wiped out — or worse, deficits as a percentage of GDP could grow even larger.

On top of that, a declining market can trigger the “reverse wealth effect.” When portfolios shrink, consumers tend to spend less. Since consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy, that kind of pullback can slow growth. Businesses may also become more cautious, further weakening economic activity.

Luke Gromen of Forest for the Trees recently pointed out that in 2022, a 20% drop in the stock market led to a $400 billion decline in federal tax receipts. If the same happens in 2025, the financial impact would far outweigh any gains from refinancing debt.

In a recent report, Luke Gromen noted that the last three recessions pushed the U.S. deficit higher by 6%, 8%, and 12% of GDP, respectively. In today’s terms, that would mean increases of $1.6 trillion, $2.1 trillion, and $3.2 trillion during a recession.

Yet, Congress has offered no serious plan to cut spending. Any reductions that do happen would likely shrink GDP, which makes solving the problem even more challenging. That leaves the administration with very little room to maneuver.

While the White House denies any intent to trigger a market crash, some economists believe the administration’s aggressive tariff strategy may be designed to lower interest rates by creating financial stress.

If true, it’s a high-risk approach to managing the government’s rising interest burden. The longer it takes to deliver results, the greater the danger it backfires — potentially triggering a debt spiral instead of relief.

Let’s hope for a resolution before those risks materialize.

Time to dismantle the Fed’s debt-based dollar scam



A banking cartel is haunting our society with its ability to create, destroy, and control money — the Federal Reserve. It must be abolished and replaced with a more rational and fair system.

Money is the lifeblood of modern civilization. It enables us to establish contracts, assess the worth of goods and services, and trade efficiently. But what exactly is money, and who creates the U.S. dollar?

Our monetary system is a mechanism for transferring wealth to urban elites who produce nothing.

The first step in understanding money is dispelling the notion that a valuable asset like gold backs it — because it doesn’t.

The dollar is valuable for two reasons. First, it is backed by the “full faith and credit of the U.S. government,” meaning its worth derives from its ability to tax people to pay its debts. Second, the federal government only accepts tax payments in U.S. dollars, creating an inherent demand for the currency.

Despite these factors, the federal government creates very little of our money. The U.S. Treasury prints paper bills and mints coins, but physical cash accounts for only about 10% of our total money supply.

The hidden mechanism of money creation

Most of our money comes from debt — and that’s a problem.

Modern money is almost entirely created through lending. Every non-cash dollar must eventually be repaid to a private bank with interest. In other words, most U.S. money is simply a collection of IOUs owed to private financial institutions.

Commercial banks operate under a system called “fractional reserve banking.” They are private businesses that only hold a small amount of cash reserves and issue loans often exceeding 900% of their small cash reserves. When a bank issues a loan and deposits it into a borrower’s account, new “money” is created out of thin air.

An unelected financial cabal

Over 100 years ago, a group of powerful financiers met on Jekyll Island, off the coast of Georgia, to draft a plan that would give them — rather than Congress — control over America’s monetary system. The result was the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, which created the Federal Reserve — a private banking cartel disguised as a government agency.

The Federal Reserve is not part of the U.S. government. It is a privately held bank consortium, accountable only to its shareholders. The Federal Reserve’s transactions have never been fully audited, and its decisions require no approval from any government official. Congress has outsourced its constitutional control of the American money supply to some of the wealthiest people in the world, arguably the greatest financial crime in the history of this country.

When the federal government spends more than it collects in taxes, it borrows the difference. It issues Treasury bills to borrow money from investors or the Social Security trust fund. In some cases, it issues Treasury bills directly to the Federal Reserve. The Fed then creates money by adding numbers to an account without tangible backing. This process leaves the government — and ultimately taxpayers — responsible for repaying the Federal Reserve with interest.

Leveraging their monopoly on money creation, private banks earn vast sums from interest on loans that far exceed what they hold in reserves. U.S. banks currently have $3.3 trillion in reserves yet carry $12.5 trillion in outstanding loans. Borrowers pay real interest on imaginary money, funneling nearly half a trillion dollars annually into bankers’ pockets.

This is why skyscrapers bear the names of banks. Bankers get rich on money that doesn’t belong to them. Our monetary system transfers wealth to urban elites who produce nothing. The interest they collect is a one-way street paved with gold.

The Fed and inflation

Since the Federal Reserve’s creation, the federal government has continuously eroded the U.S. dollar through reckless borrowing. We have now accumulated $38 trillion in debt, and inflation has soared to over 3,000% since 1913, eroding the purchasing power of ordinary Americans.

The tidal wave of newly created “magic money” inflates the total money supply, devaluing existing dollars and making everyday goods more expensive. The Federal Reserve’s shareholders profit because they collect interest on government-issued debt, while bureaucrats, lobbyists, and corporations tied to federal spending rake in the cash. The rest of us, however, pay for their legerdemain through higher taxes and the devaluation of our wealth.

In the last two years alone, the wealth of the bottom 50% of Americans grew by just $1.5 trillion, while the wealth of the top 1% gained $11.8 trillion. Empowered by its control over money, the wealthiest elite has consolidated ownership of media conglomerates, major industries, and political influence. Elites have rigged the system, ensuring that the magical goose laying their golden eggs is never threatened by ordinary people.

Boom-bust — a banker’s best friend

Massive government borrowing coincides with colossal money creation, triggering economic booms. Speculative bubbles form in stocks and real estate, but these booms always lead to busts.

When debt-laden consumers default on loans, the money supply shrinks, and the economy grinds to a halt. Bankers and politicians, armed with insider knowledge, navigate these cycles with ease — profiting from the economy’s expansion and collapse. Meanwhile, the average American suffers job losses, foreclosures, and financial ruin.

We do not elect the elites who control this system. We are simply the drones who ultimately pay for it through higher taxes, inflation, and economic instability. The top 0.1% in America now controls as much wealth as the bottom 90%.

As Thomas Jefferson wrote in 1816, “The banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.” He foresaw the threat posed by private banks controlling the nation’s currency, predicting they would “deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

It is time to end this system of financial serfdom. The power to issue money should be returned to the people where it rightfully belongs.

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How your wallet is paying for the government’s spending binge



The Treasury Department has released the receipts for federal spending in fiscal year 2024, revealing staggering numbers. While the $1.8 trillion deficit may seem less alarming than a $2.3 trillion shortfall, the Treasury accounted for an extra $500 billion in deficits in the opening days of fiscal year 2025 to achieve that figure. Regardless, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Treasury Department can escape the impact of these numbers. We have now reached a point where permanent stagflation seems unavoidable.

The Treasury Department’s final tab for fiscal 2024 shows a $1.83 trillion deficit, setting a near record aside from the unusual pandemic years of 2020-2021. This means the government borrowed $5 billion per day — the equivalent of the FBI’s entire annual budget a generation ago. In the third quarter of this calendar year (the final quarter of fiscal 2024), the deficit equaled 6.3% of GDP, a level only surpassed during World War II and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Republicans have failed to convey to the public that the government spending they rely on comes at a painful cost.

Despite relatively low unemployment and the absence of a world war, the government took in a record $4.918 trillion in revenue but still amassed a mammoth deficit. This gap is poised to grow in the new fiscal year, meaning that when a recession officially hits, the deficit could become colossal. Although the government collected $479 billion more in revenue than last year, it increased the deficit by spending an additional $617 billion. Imagine what the deficit might look like if revenue starts to decline.

In the past, we shrugged off such news, dismissing it as mere red ink on a spreadsheet. But that was when annual interest on the debt cost only $200 billion. Now, we’re on track to spend a record $1.133 trillion — or nearly a quarter of our tax revenue — just on interest. Debt interest is now more costly than every government expense except Social Security, contributing to the crippling inflation consumers face. We’re no longer mortgaging our grandchildren’s future; we’re destroying our own.

To cover this interest, the government must sell a record number of treasury bonds each month. With countries reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and buying gold instead, treasury yields are rising unnaturally. Despite a drop in the federal funds rate, rising spending and the resulting debt service push yields higher. This shift has caused gold and treasury yields to surge simultaneously — a rare occurrence, as they typically move inversely. It’s also why the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed nearly a full percent since the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points. T. Rowe Price forecasts that the 10-year Treasury yield could hit 5% over the next six months, approaching levels seen in late 2007 on the eve of the Great Recession.

When yields go up, debt servicing costs increase further, and the Fed has to print even more money to cover both the rollover debt and rapidly accumulating new debt — rising faster this year than last. Under this baseline scenario, inflation is bound to worsen. The global money supply now stands at $89.7 trillion, up by $22 trillion since COVID. After shrinking in 2022-2023, M2 is now expanding rapidly and is currently 38% higher than pre-COVID levels. Consumers are already struggling with high prices, and every market indicator signals a new round of even higher costs.

Consumers have exhausted their resources ahead of an impending financial collapse, spending $2.3 trillion in excess savings over the past three years to cope with the cost of living. Currently, cumulative excess savings are negative $216 billion, with U.S. credit card debt and interest rates at record highs.

Even without the threat of hyperinflation, these economic indicators always precede a crash. The unprecedented rallies in gold and silver are clear warnings, signaling grave danger. They indicate that the Federal Reserve, in its attempts to curb recession and inflation while printing money recklessly, has lost control, leaving us to face the consequences of both.

Republicans have failed to convey to the public that the government spending they rely on comes at a painful cost. It’s not just the $103,700 in debt that each American is responsible for in some distant future. It’s the additional tens of thousands they will pay each year to maintain their parents’ standard of living for the rest of their lives — and that’s assuming things don’t get worse.

Explained: Why the Fed lowering interest rates might be a BAD sign ...



When Glenn Beck first heard the news that the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by half a point, which is the first time it’s been lowered since 2020, his first thought was “this is election interference by the Fed.”

His second thought was that the last time the Fed did this, it didn’t lead to a positive outcome.

Recovering investment banker Carol Roth joins the show to break down the details.

“What’s really going on here, Carol?” Glenn asks.

“First of all, Glenn, I just want you to know that I am unburdened by what has been, and now the market is in terms of interest rates because we are in a rate-cutting environment,” says Roth, taking a jab at Kamala Harris.

“I think the important thing to remember is that when we talk about rate heights, rate cuts — anything the Fed’s doing — we have to keep it in context, and the backdrop is that we came out of 15 years of what's called ZIRP — zero interest rate policy — where the interest rates were at or near zero,” she continues, adding that in addition, the Fed put “$9 trillion plus on its balance sheet.”

According to Roth, there’s the potential for both good and bad with this lowered interest rate.

Starting with the potential bad, Roth says, “when you are saying that the economy is doing amazing” and then follow with “a very large cut,” it can “send a signal to say things are not going so well.”

However, “after 15 years of zero interest rate policy, it does make sense for us to get back to what's considered a neutral rate,” she says.

“Is this an inflationary move?” asks Glenn.

“So that’s the question,” says Roth. “If you think about what the neutral rate is, which is theoretical — we don't know the number — but basically it's the dividing line between policy that is restrictive and policy that is accommodative, and what we're trying to do is have the Fed have no influence in either direction. I believe that we are still in that restrictive area.”

“I don’t think that will cause inflation,” she says.

“I wouldn't be spending a dime right now on hiring, building — anything. Not a dime until I see what happens at the election,” says Glenn, adding that if Harris gets elected, he’s “battening down the hatches,” but if Trump wins, he’d be “willing to invest.”

To hear Roth’s thoughts, watch the clip above.

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