On November 12, Joe Rogan made a comment on an episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience” that gained significant national attention. Referencing the sadistic celebrations of left-wingers after the death of Charlie Kirk, Rogan asked, “Where are we right now on the scale of one to civil war? ... I thought we were like four or five. But after the Charlie Kirk thing, I'm like, ‘Oh, we might be like seven.’ This might be like step seven on the way to a bona fide civil war."

Glenn Beck says Rogan’s words ring true. We are indeed inching closer to civil war, but just how close are we?

On this episode of “The Glenn Beck Program,” Glenn breaks down the nine steps of civil war and explains exactly where America is.

Step 1: Loss of civic trust

“Every civil conflict begins when people stop believing that the system is fair,” says Glenn, calling America “so far past the doorway” on this one.

Recent Gallup and Pew polls reveal that faith in Congress, media, judicial courts, the FBI, and government are “at record lows.” The most recent report from the Edelman Trust Barometer classifies the United States as “severely polarized.” Republicans at large distrust federal elections, while Democrats at large distrust the Supreme Court.

“Americans are really united on one thing, and that is the other side is corrupt,” says Glenn.

Step 2: Polarization hardens into identity

“Political disagreement is normal; identity conflict is fatal. But that's what Marxists push – identity politics,” says Glenn. “This is when politics stop being about policy and start being about who you are as a person.”

The more people adopt the oppressed vs. oppressor mindset, the more society fragments into “incompatible tribes.” Now “opponents aren't wrong anymore; the opponent is dangerous,” says Glenn.

Sadly, “We’re neck deep in this.” The fact that the Public Religion Research Institute found that nearly a quarter of the population believes political violence may be necessary to save the country proves it.

Step 3: Breakdown of the gatekeepers

“The gatekeepers are kind of like the referees of society. It's the media, political parties, churches, civic leaders. When they fail, extremism fills the vacuum,” says Glenn.

When you consider how the media has turned into “team coaches,” how tech platforms made rage its most lucrative commodity, how universities became Marxist indoctrination mills, and how churches have been utterly “useless,” it’s clear the nation has moved beyond step three.

Step 4: Parallel information realities

“Civil wars don't require different opinions; they require different realities,” says Glenn.

Conservatism and progressivism are undoubtedly rooted in antithetical worldviews. One sees gender as immutable; the other sees it as a social construct. One believes experimenting on children is evil; the other calls it “care.” One says crime rates are surging in blue cities; the other blames spikes in violence on poverty, guns, and systemic inequities. One sees secure borders as a critical protection for citizens; the other calls it inhumane and xenophobic.

Then social media platforms capitalize on this divide by curating “customized political universes” that only cement the partisan factions. Dialogue, not to mention resolution, becomes impossible, as the paradigms of each camp are so radically opposed, they can no longer co-exist.

“Step four is complete,” says Glenn.

Step 5: Loss of natural rule of law

Glenn calls step five “the pivot point.” It’s the moment when civil war starts to look not just possible but promising. Once people at large begin believing that “the law is no longer neutral,” “the republic stands on borrowed time.”

Based on recent polling, America has ticked this box. A YouGov poll found that “67% of Americans believe the judicial system is used for political purposes.”

Glenn lists several examples that explain the loss of faith in the country’s justice system: “January 6 defendants given years in prison. 2020 rioters were released. High-profile political figures prosecuted or shielded based on party. FBI whistleblowers alleging pressure to inflate domestic extremism numbers. States like Texas directly defying federal directives on border enforcement and now leading the way with the federal government.”

Step 6: Normalization of political violence

“This is where violence stops shocking the system,” says Glenn. He points to Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones, who was elected after it came out that in 2022, he sent text messages fantasizing about Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert getting “two bullets to the head” and expressing hope that his wife would have to “watch her own child die in her arms.”

Couple that with the dismissal of 2020 BLM rioters and the widespread celebrations of political violence, and it’s clear: We’re beyond step six.

Step 7: The rise of militias and parallel forces

This happens “when a state loses its monopoly on force” and political factions “start forming their own police forces,” says Glenn.

We’re seeing the beginnings of this with the organized groups that target ICE, but we haven’t moved past step seven quite yet, he says, confirming that Rogan’s estimation was dead on.

Step 8: The trigger event

“Civil wars don't begin with a plan; they begin with a spark,” says Glenn. “We're not here yet either, but the conditions are right.”

A “disputed election,” a “political assassination or a major attack,” a “Supreme Court decision that ignites mass unrest,” a “financial crisis or dollar crisis,” or a violent “state federal standoff” are all things that could light the match, he warns.

“Nothing is ignited yet, but the room is soaked in gasoline.”

Step 9: The point of no return

Once “police, military, or federal agencies split,” the war is on, says Glenn.

While this hasn’t happened yet, we can certainly hear foreboding rumblings. In New York City, police officers are leaving the force or relocating after socialist and defund-the-police advocate Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor. Glenn also points to the “tension between the state National Guard and the federal directives.”

“States openly defying federal rules on immigration, drug laws, sanctuary policies, whistleblower claims of internal politicization — all of these things are in play,” says Glenn.

He pulls it all together with a stark verdict on where America stands: “Steps one through four: completed. Step five: happening. Step six: happening. Step seven: beginning. Step eight: just waiting for it. And step nine: avoidable only if step eight never happens.”

“I'm not telling you for doom purposes. This is diagnosis,” says Glenn.

“The nation that refuses to look and wake up and stop calling their neighbors enemies is the nation that fails.”

To hear more of Glenn’s analysis, watch the video above.

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