Dems flip final congressional seat 1 month after Election Day



Democratic challenger Adam Gray defeated Republican incumbent Rep. John Duarte in California's 13th congressional district on Tuesday, one month after Election Day.

Gray unseated the freshman GOP lawmaker by just 187 votes, making this rematch a reversal of their 2022 face-off.

California's 13th congressional district was the final congressional race to be called, solidifying the partisan split in the House. Republicans now hold 220 seats while Democrats hold 215.

The Republican majority is expected to be even slimmer at the start of the 119th Congress due to three expected vacancies.

"I'm honored to become the Congressman-elect for California's 13th Congressional District," Gray said in an X post on Tuesday. "The final results confirm this district is ready for independent and accountable leadership that always puts the Valley's people ahead of partisan politics."

"But the work has just begun," Gray continued. "In Washington, I'll work every day to deliver the resources that the Valley needs: clean water, better educational opportunities, stronger infrastructure, and more good-paying jobs. And you can count on me to build bipartisan relationships to accomplish these goals."

Democrats also flipped California's 45th congressional district, with Democratic challenger Derek Tran defeating incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, chipping away at the GOP's already slim majority in the House.

The Republican majority is expected to be even slimmer at the start of the 119th Congress due to three expected vacancies.

Former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida resigned in November amid his bid for attorney general, although he later withdrew. Republican Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida is also set to resign on January 20, Inauguration Day, after being tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as national security adviser in the upcoming administration. Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York was also recruited by Trump to serve as ambassador to the United Nations, although she has not yet confirmed when she will resign.

The two Florida seats are set to be filled via special election on April 1.

If all three seats are simultaneously vacant, Republicans will be operating with a slim majority of 217 while Democrats hold 215 seats. Under these circumstances, Republicans could afford to lose only one single vote from their party.

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3 House races that still have not yet been called



Although it has been over three weeks since Election Day, there are three House races that are still up in the air.

Republicans have secured their slim House majority of 219 seats while the Democrats have won 213 seats. While the GOP is expected to hold onto yet another narrow majority, several Republicans have been tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to serve in the upcoming administration. With potential House vacancies on the horizon, every race remains crucial for Republicans.

While Republicans have secured a majority in the upcoming 119th Congress, the narrow advantage is shrinking.

In California's 13th congressional district, Republican incumbent Rep. John Duarte is hoping to fend off Democratic challenger and former Rep. Adam Gray. The two candidates are currently less than 200 votes apart, with Gray inching ahead of Duarte.

Gray previously represented California's 13th congressional district from 2012 to 2022 when Duarte unseated the Democrat. Duarte defeated the then-incumbent by just 564 votes, making him the first Republican to win the district since 1974.

The district has historically been held by Democrats, and Gray is still within striking distance of Duarte, making this one of the closest House races to date.

Further south in California's 14th congressional district, Republican incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel is falling behind Democratic challenger Derek Tran. Tran has pulled ahead of Steel with an approximate 600-vote margin.

Steel was first elected to represent California's 45th congressional district in 2022. The seat was previously held for three terms by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who has since represented California's 47th congressional district after the state redistricted in 2021.

Although the GOP may have lost its footing in two key California seats, Republican incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks has held a narrow lead in the race for Iowa's 1st congressional district. Miller-Meeks is roughly 800 votes ahead of Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, with just 900 votes estimated to be remaining.

Miller-Meeks was first elected to represent Iowa's 1st congressional district in 2022, defeating Bohannan by nearly seven points. Although the race is much closer this time around, Miller-Meeks still has a shot at holding onto her seat.

While Republicans have secured a majority in the upcoming 119th Congress, the narrow advantage is shrinking.

Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida most recently resigned from Congress after Trump nominated him for attorney general. Gaetz later withdrew from his Cabinet bid but reaffirmed that he had no intentions of returning to Congress, leaving the seat vacant.

Fellow Floridian and Republican Rep. Mike Waltz was also tapped by Trump to serve as national security adviser in the upcoming administration. Waltz has confirmed that he intends to resign the day Trump is inaugurated on January 20.

Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York was also recruited by Trump to serve in the next administration as U.N. ambassador. Although she has not yet indicated when she intends to resign, the GOP is anticipating her vacancy.

With the two Florida seats scheduled for special elections on April 1, House Republicans are bracing themselves for an estimated one-seat majority for the first two months of the 119th Congress.

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Key pickup opportunities for Republicans to secure their House majority



Republicans will likely maintain their slim majority in the House, but several key races have not yet been called.

Republicans are just four seats away from the majority, currently holding 214 seats, while Democrats hold just 203 seats. In order for one party to win the majority, the party must hold at least 218 of the 435 House seats.

Although Democrats are leading 10 of the 18 uncalled races, Republicans are well on their way to maintaining their House majority.

California is the most likely path to victory for the GOP, with Republicans leading in four of the 10 uncalled congressional races. Republican incumbents John Duarte of California's 13th Congressional District, David Valadao of California's 22nd Congressional District, Ken Calvert of California's 41st Congressional District, and Michelle Steel of California's 45th Congressional District are all leading their Democratic challengers.

These four competitive California races would be enough to keep Republicans in the majority.

The GOP has another pickup opportunity in the neighboring state of Arizona. Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani of Arizona's 6th Congressional District is currently leading Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel. Ciscomani's is the only congressional race that has not yet been called in Arizona.

Up north, Republicans are guaranteed another seat in the race for Washington's 4th Congressional District. Unlike most other states, Washington has a ranked-choice system, which allows voters to rank their candidates in preferential order rather than having a two-party primary like most other races. As a result, constituents are voting between two Republican candidates, incumbent Dan Newhouse and challenger Jerrod Sessler.

Newhouse is currently ahead of Sessler, but no matter which way the race pans out, Republicans will have secured the seat.

Similar to Washington, Alaska also adopted the ranked-choice voting system, though notably, Alaska introduced a ballot measure to end ranked-choice voting, which is currently on track to pass in the state.

Of the three Alaskan candidates, Republican challenger Nick Begich is leading Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola and independent candidate John Wayne Howe in the race for Alaska's sole congressional seat.

While the race has not yet been called, Begich is leading Peltola by four points, making the longtime red state a likely layup for the GOP.

Republicans are leading a much tighter race out east in Iowa's 1st Congressional District. Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks is currently ahead of Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by just 0.2% with 99% of the votes counted. Miller-Meeks holds just a 1,200-vote advantage.

Although Democrats are leading 10 of the 18 uncalled races, Republicans are well on their way to maintaining their House majority.

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