Here’s Why Transgender Identities Are Finally In Freefall
The generational cohort changes in trans and queer identification have been sudden and dramatic.A new study from the University of Buckingham's Centre for Heterodox Social Science suggests that gender ideology is falling out of favor and the sex-change regime's supply of potential young victims might be drying up.
Citing data from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression's annual campus surveys of undergraduate students — FIRE polled over 60,000 this year — and several institution-level surveys of young Americans, study author Dr. Eric Kaufmann indicated that "the share of young people not identifying as male or female (typically ticking the non-binary or questioning options) has declined substantially since its 2022-23 peak."
'The fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend.'
One of the institutional-level student surveys Kaufmann looked at, the survey conducted annually at the Boston-area Andover Phillips Academy, showed a drop from over 9% of all respondents identifying as "non-binary" in 2023 to 3% total this year.
FIRE survey data and Brown University student survey data similarly showed declines in the share of self-identified "non-binary" respondents — from 6.8% to 3.6% of the total in the first case, and a drop from roughly 5% to 2.6% in the second case.
While the homosexual cohort has remained relatively stable, in the 3-5% range, Andover Phillips data indicated that there has been a rebound in the share of students who identify as straight.
This rebound was similarly reflected in the FIRE data — which indicates that straightness dropped from 80% in 2020 to 68% in 2023, but now sits around 77% — as well as in the General Social Survey's findings, which reportedly indicated that straightness fell from 95% in 2010 to 71% in 2022, then rose to 81% last year.
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Meanwhile, the category of self-identified bisexuals, which increased from 10% to 17% between 2020 and 2023, has dropped to 12%, according to the Andover Phillips data.
The category for "queer and other" sexual identities, which had jumped from 7% in 2020 to 17% in 2023, has since fallen to 12% of the total.
FIRE data indicates that the "queer and other" sexuality category has fallen from 15% in 2023 to 8%.
Kaufmann suggested that "it appears that trans and queer are going out of fashion among young people, especially in elite settings," and that the freshman 2028 cohort "was less likely than older students in 2025 to identify as BTQ+."
"To the extent that the youngest represent the leading edge of new trends, this suggests that trans, bisexual and queer identities are declining in popularity with each new cohort," Kaufmann added.
The professor indicated that the decline in non-straight identification "does not appear to be the result of a shift to the right, the return of religion, or a rejection of woke culture war attitudes."
Kaufmann suggested on X that "the fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend. It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role."
Gender ideologues appear to be everywhere losing their battle against common sense and the well-being of young Americans.
For instance, a recent Gallup poll indicated that 66% of American adults think people should be required to list their real sex on government documents and that 69% believe medical transvestites should play on sports teams with members of their own sex.
Pew Research Center polling shows that a majority of Americans now support bans on child sex-change procedures — bans of the kind now in effect in a majority of U.S. states.
This rebuke of the sex-change regime, which is also taking a beating from the Trump administration, appears to be pan-generational. Data published by the Public Religion Research Institute in May indicates that support for so-called "gender-affirming care" has also plummeted among younger Americans. For instance, 66% of young men ages 18-29 think that sex-change interventions, including puberty blockers and hormone therapy, should be illegal in most or all cases.
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In response to to a recent Supreme Court case, last week Fr. James Martin posted on X that so-called “conversion therapy” should be banned.
That’s not compassion. That’s censorship dressed up as virtue. And as a Catholic priest, he should know better.
When a young man says, 'I want help living chastely,' telling him his request is unrealistic and maybe even illegal — that’s cruelty.
This case, Chiles v. Salazar, isn’t forcing anyone to change. It’s about the freedom of young people, their parents, and counselors to even talk about faith, identity, and healing.
Early this summer, my Ruth Institute colleague Fr. Paul Sullins and I submitted an amicus brief to the court concerning the Chiles case. Fr. Sullins is a former sociology professor at Catholic University of America. I am a former economics professor at Yale University. In our brief, we summarized research on sexual orientation and on change therapy.
Fr. James Martin’s core argument actually comes at the end of his post, where he says:
“Like it or not, understand it or not, this is how God made them. Accepting the way God made them is part of the 'respect, compassion and sensitivity' that the Catechism calls for.”
Notice that he treats the “born this way” idea as something so obvious that it doesn’t even need to be defended. However, this is factually incorrect.
In 2019, a massive study of the human genome clearly showed there is no “gay gene.” The genetic contribution to self-identification as “gay” is roughly the same as a genetic contribution to other complex behavioral systems, such as the tendency to alcoholism or other kinds of addictions.
Even before 2019, studies of identical twins cast serious doubt on the claim that people are born gay. These studies examine the concordance between twins. If it were really true that "gay is the new black," then concordance between twins should be 100%. The actual number is closer to 30%.
As a matter of fact, even the American Psychological Association admits:
There is no consensus among scientists about the exact reasons that an individual develops a heterosexual, bisexual, gay, or lesbian orientation. Although much research has examined the possible genetic, hormonal, developmental, social, and cultural influences on sexual orientation, no findings have emerged that permit scientists to conclude that sexual orientation is determined by any particular factor or factors. Many think that nature and nurture both play complex roles; most people experience little or no sense of choice about their sexual orientation.
The APA is correct when it says that many possible factors contribute to the development of persistent same-sex attraction or a gay identity. A set of contributing factors is not at all the same as one cause, as if one and only one thing were in play. The Ruth Institute’s report “Refuting the Top 5 Gay Myths” explains this in more detail. You can obtain this report at no charge by subscribing to our newsletter.
For now, let us state plainly: The claim that “this is how God made them” is bad science. It is certainly bad theology, as Fr. Martin ought to know. God doesn’t make anybody gay.
And God certainly doesn’t put anybody in the “wrong body.” That idea is physical nonsense and metaphysical nonsense. Your body is you!
Fr. Martin says there’s “no evidence” that counseling like this helps. No evidence? Seriously? That’s simply false.
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Our own research at the Ruth Institute shows that talk therapy — not shock therapy or any other aversive techniques, but the talk therapy that is really at stake in this case — has helped many people find peace and stability in the face of unwanted same-sex attraction.
And the so-called “evidence” used to ban therapy that helps people reduce their feelings of unwanted same-sex attraction? There are a lot of problems with those studies, which we cover thoroughly in our amicus brief.
The most important objection is that these studies do not take account of pre-counseling distress. We found evidence that the people who are the most distressed and the most suicidal are also the most likely to seek therapy. If you correlate “lifetime suicide attempts” with “did you ever go for therapy,” some of the people were suicidal before they ever went to a counselor. It is not correct to blame the counseling for something that happened before the counseling took place!
Fr. Sullins found that taking account of the before and after basically obliterated the results of one of the most commonly cited studies that supposedly shows that “conversion therapy causes suicide.”
Besides, the claim that there is “no evidence” is a recklessly strong one. What about all the people who have Left Pride Behind, some with the help of therapy, some without? Each one of them counters the claim that “no one can change” and “therapy never works.” Even a single counter-example is enough to disprove these strong claims. And at the Ruth Institute, we’ve got a lot of cases! Don’t their stories deserve to be heard? These are real people whose stories are being systematically silenced in the public square.
I’ve listened to many of these stories. My friends who have Left Pride Behind consistently tell me that what they needed was people to walk with them, in genuine compassion.
Fr. Martin says, “It’s not a Christian value to do harm.” I agree.
But denying someone the freedom to live by his or her faith is harm.
When a young man says, “I want help living chastely,” telling him his request is unrealistic and maybe even illegal — that’s cruelty. My friends tell me how much they valued their friends and family members who stood by them as they struggled with temptation or with relapses or with discouragement. They cherish those friends as true brothers and sisters in Christ
Christian love always points to truth. The Ruth Institute stands for the freedom to heal — the freedom to live your faith fully, even when it’s unpopular or challenging.
The Supreme Court is being asked to decide whether the state can control what you’re allowed to say in the privacy of a counseling room. Let us hope the justices opt for freedom of speech and religion. That’s something every Catholic — including priests — should defend.
I invite Fr. Martin, and anyone who shares his views, to look again at the gospel and the science. Jesus never banned the truth — because truth sets us free.
Bari Weiss made history this week as the first openly LGBTQ journalist to lead a major network newsroom. Paramount announced Monday that Weiss, the former New York Times opinion writer who founded the Free Press, would serve as editor in chief of CBS News. Alas, the landmark achievement was largely ignored by media outlets and LGBTQ activist groups that purport to celebrate diversity and inclusion.
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