The House outlook: As brave as a mouse

The House is technically in recess this week as the continuing resolution (CR) to fund several departments and agencies is expected to expire this Friday. Included in the expiration is the Department of Homeland Security, which is the vehicle necessary for funding important border security and immigration enforcement policy provisions.

Such provisions include, but are not limited to, funding for the border wall, defunding of sanctuary cities, asylum reform, and ending chain migration. The president’s request has been limited thus far to providing $5 billion for the border wall.

As reminder, Congress punted the CR two weeks ago under the excuse that legislators didn’t want a “shutdown” to distract from the memorial services for former President George H.W. Bush. Now, House and Senate leadership is scrambling to “avert a shutdown” the weekend before Christmas — as I predicted two weeks ago that they would do.

However, a viral video of President Trump challenging Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., essentially put the ball back in the Democrats’ court last week.

The president announced that he would be proud to “shut the government down” over border security. This is exactly the right sentiment.

If only Republican members of Congress expressed such resolve. Especially since the continuing resolution only deals with 25 percent of all federal spending (excluding interest on the debt) — the rest has either already been appropriated (including Department of Defense funding) or sits on autopilot as part of a mandatory funding stream (e.g. Social Security and Medicare).

The idea that the government will shut down is an absolute farce. It will merely slow down.

Republicans have zero excuses for not demanding $5 billion for border barrier funding. And if Democrats refuse to pony up the votes needed to pass this provision, then they can explain to the American public, as they gather with their families for Christmas, why progressives care more about opening our borders to drug cartel operatives, violent criminal gangs, and human traffickers than they do about ensuring our communities are safe.

And in a sane world, that would be the only argument that the Republican Party would hammer day and night following a “shutdown” on Friday.

Instead, Congress is panicking.

Because when it comes to avoiding a fight over the policy promises they’ve made to their constituents, Speaker Paul Ryan. R-Wisc., and Senator Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have no shortage of excuses and no evidence of a spine.

Indeed, it would appear that outside simply avoiding a shutdown, there is no plan of action whatsoever to ensure $5 billion of wall funding for border security and to make the Democrats own our lawless open borders. This despite high-profile murders of American citizens by criminal illegal aliens: Jared Vargas, Mollie Tibbetts, Ronald Da Silva, and Joshua Wilkerson.

How it likely plays out

The House’s posture largely signals that members are waiting to see what the Senate does regarding the continuing resolution. Instead of leading by drawing a bright red line in the sand, Speaker Paul Ryan, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., seem content to sit back, toss out a few platitudes about supporting border security, and then toss their hands up when the Senate sends them a bill that fails to include the president’s $5 billion border plan.

This is nonsense. And the outgoing GOP majority could easily put the pressure on nine Senate Democrats to provide the 60 votes needed to fund the border barrier. But such pressure would require effort and a deep desire to make good on a commitment to their constituents. And those are two things that long ago ceased to exist in GOP leadership.

Expect the House to pass whatever bill the Senate sends it. And expect that bill to largely fail to meet the bare minimum threshold for beginning the process of securing our border.

The Senate outlook: Criminal justice coal for the American people

The Senate returned yesterday for a cloture vote to begin debate on the First Step Act. I, along with a steady diet of strong commentary and analysis from Conservative Review senior editor Daniel Horowitz, have emphasized the policy failures of this bill. It should not be lost on conservatives that the Senate is staying in session this week not to focus on border security, health care freedom, or reining in the national debt, but rather to debate early release for violent and sexual offenders currently sitting in federal penitentiaries.

Furthermore, a new Congressional Budget Office report shows that one of the alleged positives of the bill — a reduction in spending due to reduced incarceration costs — is outweighed by an estimated increase in welfare expenditures.

Therefore, the bill will actually increase the deficit by roughly $350 million. It turns out that it costs a lot of taxpayer money and requires a lot of big government policies to “improve the behavior” of felons.

The Washington cartel’s interests are simply not the interests of the American people. Our government no longer truly represents the people. And as tribalism intensifies and our culture degenerates, our elected leaders’ failure to even remotely address the core priorities of families and taxpayers is paving a path toward fragmentation and a fraying of our republic’s foundational fabric.

Can’t afford your health insurance because of Obamacare insurance regulations? Oh well.

Can’t find a good doctor any more because Washington mandates have either driven them out or restricted your options? Too bad.

Find it increasingly difficult to put food on the table, fill up your gas tank, purchase diapers, or pay your power bill because of green energy mandates, tariffs, and federal central planning in food and agriculture? Tough luck.

Worried about sending your kids to public school or college because of artificially subsidized federal student loans, inflated tuition rates, and pervasive fascist radicalism in the classroom? Stop being such a privileged knuckle-dragging Luddite.

Fearful of your future as our government racks up over $22 trillion in debt — a third of which is held by hostile nations like China — and the likelihood of our economy collapsing under such weight? It’s okay. It’s somebody else’s money, after all.

Agonizing over burying a loved one killed by criminal illegal violence or trafficked opioids because our own government refuses to defend our nation’s sovereignty, secure our border, and enforce our immigration laws? You’re just one egg that has to be cracked to make the progressive dystopian omelet. And besides, you’re probably a racist.

Tom Cotton arrives

For years, the conservative movement has looked to a handful of senators to serve as its voice. Among these are Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, Mike Lee, R-Utah, and Rand Paul, R-Ky. Unfortunately all three have jumped aboard the First Step Act. Cruz announced that recent changes in the bill that would block out some violent offenders from receiving early release was enough to secure his support, assuming adoption of tougher restrictions.

But in a scathing piece in National Review, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., has provided a clear-cut rallying cry for law-and-order conservatives desperate for a champion. The debate over the details of the bill has largely been obfuscated by left-wing spin from the likes of the ACLU, Koch-funded think tanks, and Soros-funded progressive action groups.

Sen. Cotton, in conjunction with Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., has a series of three amendments designed to call the bluff of the First Step Act’s most ardent proponents. The first amendment would shore up the appalling number of loopholes in the bill by excluding a number of violent and sexual offenses eligible for “early release credits” under the bill.

Among the federal offenses eligible for early release:

• Violent bank robberies
• Carjackings resulting in physical injury
• Violent assaults on law enforcement officers
• Sex offenders who coerce children into obscene and illicit activities

Sen. Cotton’s amendment would prevent anyone who has committed such crimes from being eligible for early release. And it would double down by categorically excluding anyone who has committed a violent or sexual offense from being eligible for any of the early release programs.

It’s truly jaw-dropping that no Republican—especially no conservative—advocated to start under that policy paradigm. Thankfully, Sen. Cotton is leading.

Additionally, Sens. Cotton and Kennedy have two other amendments. The second amendment would require notifying victims of these criminals pending their potential early release, giving them recourse through an opportunity for preparing official statements outlining their fears and concerns to wardens. The last amendment would require the Bureau of Prisons to track these felons once they’re released so that data can be acquired on their recidivism rate and the efficacy of these so-called rehabilitation programs.

And in my view, as a new father to baby boy, is that any Republican who fails to vote for all three of these amendments deserves to be primaried. Plain and simple. No matter who you are.

Liberty outlook

Summary: The House is in recess this week pending possible action on the continuing resolution, which expires on Friday. The Senate is spending the majority of its floor time debating the First Step Act, which, without amendments offered by Sen. Tom Cotton, would constitute nothing short of cementing the GOP as a pro-criminal political party. This week’s congressional Liberty Outlook remains: Code red.

Get ready for a lot of Christmas coal from Congress before this lame-duck session ends.

***

The House outlook: Why bother?

The House returned yesterday for yet another week of largely useless and squandered floor time. It’s dealing with government-growing suspension bills that are little more than parochial votes for members looking to score some last-minute “wins” before the end of the 115^th Congress. It’s almost as if the GOP majority neither cares that it lost last month’s elections nor is particularly interested in securing any conservative policy wins before Nancy Pelosi takes the speaker’s gavel.

So it’s a good thing the Republicans didn’t nominate the exact same failed leadership team to lead them as they head into the minority! Oh, wait.

Speaking of failed congressional leadership, Congress did exactly as predicted last week and passed a two-week extension of the continuing resolution, which now expires on Friday, December 21. This effectively punted — again — on having a border security funding fight and has all but guaranteed that there won’t be one. Indeed, the White House went along with this poorly conceived plan, and Republicans and the president now face the argument that they can’t possibly “shut the government down” a few days before Christmas, can they? Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is already shamelessly stating as much.

This comes back to a common theme in this column: The Republican majority simply isn’t a conservative majority, and its legislation, legislative “strategies,” and priorities demonstrate this. A Republican majority and a pro-liberty conservative majority are two different things. That should be clear by now.

Despite full control over the legislative and executive branches, Republicans accomplished very little over the past two years.

They failed to repeal Obamacare. None of their legislative proposals would actually have repealed Obamacare. All their various iterations maintained the federal insurance regulations that have doubled premiums, constrained access to providers, and reduced the overall quality of care.

They failed to reduce the national debt and instead have returned us to the Obama era of $1 trillion annual deficits, which many of these same elected officials once decried.

They failed on border security and immigration enforcement. The border wall (or any barrier) remains unconstructed and without funding. Sanctuary cities have yet to be defunded. Asylum reform legislation is stalled. Chain migration remains the law of the land. And the diversity visa lottery program is intact.

Planned Parenthood remains funded. The Department of Education’s federal footprint has grown. The House passed its version of “criminal justice reform” with the First Step Act. It passed a nearly $1 trillion food stamp and farm welfare bill, and there are no reforms on either the food stamp side or the farm subsidy side of the bill that will make it into final law.

But sure, we got a marginal tax cut bill and some regulations repealed. Meanwhile, judges continue to subvert our sovereignty and enact the progressive agenda through the courts as freedom-hating socialists within the progressive movement grow their influence in the Democrat party.

The Republican majority in the House failed. And the twenty-three suspension bills on the floor this week, coupled with the complete disinterest from many Republican members in trying to make good on any of their broken promises before they lose their majority in a few weeks, suggest that it’s time for the House Freedom Caucus and more conservative elements within the Republican Study Committee to create their own separate identity. This is totally apparent in this week’s scheduled vote on extending the wind energy policy farce to the U.S. territories.

The Offshore Wind for Territories Act of 2018 (H.R. 6665)

Sponsors: Rep. Madeleine Bordallo, D-Guam

Committee of Jurisdiction: House Committee on Natural Resources

What does the bill do? The bill would amend the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to create wind lease energy sale requirements for the U.S. territories. It would start with a feasibility study to be conducted on the viability of wind lease sales to the territories of Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico, the Marianas, and U.S. Virgin Islands. The legislation then presumes that such wind lease sales are indeed feasible, as it directs the administration to conduct no less than one wind lease sale in each territory. Additionally, it would create a new Coral Reef Conservation Fund that would receive 12.5 percent of the royalties brought in by wind lease sales to be used to preserve the reefs under the jurisdiction of the United States.

Should conservatives be concerned? Laughably, yes. Wind energy is heavily subsidized by taxpayers in a cronyism scheme designed to enrich wealthy energy magnates who use taxpayer subsidies to line their pockets. Wind energy simply isn’t viable as a reliable or sustainable form of energy.

Furthermore, this bill expands the policy farce wherein taxpayers subsidize nearly $200 billion of the wind “industry,” the government carries out wind lease sales, a portion of the revenue from those subsidy-backed sales is then redirected to a government fund designed to bolster environmental conservation efforts, and lawmakers get to pretend that they’re somehow bringing in more revenue for the government and saving the environment.

In reality, it’s just a spin cycle of taxpayer dollars propping up an industry that can’t stand on its own.

With floor time being given to this kind of legislation and the GOP avoiding a fight on border security at all costs, perhaps it’d be better for Republicans to just stay home.

The Senate outlook: Stepping back on First Step

 The Senate returned yesterday to another light floor schedule. The only scheduled vote this week is on Justin Muzinich to serve as deputy secretary of the Treasury. There also may be additional debate and a possible vote on legislation to end U.S. support for Saudi Arabia — specifically weapons and arms sales for the ongoing horrific war in Yemen. This is in light of reports about the Saudi regime’s complicity in the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi.

The president used his social media feed to prop up the First Step Act after it appeared that the legislation had stalled thanks to reservations from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. And Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, has now suggested that the First Step Act may be included in the continuing resolution.

So, in summary, the GOP will push to ensure that criminals are released into our communities on a government funding bill, but are outright terrified to stop them from coming into our country in the first place.

This is an great example of why so many Americans hate their own government. Instead of fighting to secure our border and protect the citizens who put them in power — after promising to do just that — these gutless politicians look to release some of the drug traffickers responsible for the deaths of nearly 30,000 Americans last year from opioids pushed into our communities from Mexican drug cartels.

Liberty outlook

Summary: Both chambers remain in session this week. The House continues to waste its precious final few weeks under GOP control. The Senate continues to debate nominees, vote on punishing Saudi Arabia for the Khashoggi murder, and possibly put the First Step Act on the floor. And it looks increasingly likely that there may not be a border wall fight at all. Therefore, this week’s congressional Liberty Outlook remains: Code red.

The House outlook

The House is back in session for the first full week of the post-election lame-duck session. As I’ve discussed previously, there are many looming legislative items during the lame duck that pose significant danger to our economic vitality, our security, and most importantly, our ability to live freely. Among these are a nearly $1 trillion food and farm welfare bill conference report (75 percent of which is food stamp spending), the continuing resolution to fund the Department of Homeland Security, and a potential vote in the Senate on jailbreak legislation encapsulated in the Soros- and Koch-supported First Step Act.

For the House, most of this week will revolve around still more votes on renaming post offices and passing useless or marginally harmful bipartisan bills on the suspension calendar. Behind closed doors, GOP leadership will spend much of its remaining time in power trying to figure out how not to “shut down” the government in the DHS funding bill prior to the Hanukkah and Christmas holidays.

This is because GOP leadership, as well as many of the rank-and-file members, simply have no vision or appetite to fight for the policies they purport to support while on the campaign trail. They only care about being re-elected and fear “rocking the boat” more than anything else.

Their cowardice is why the Democrats easily took back the House just a few weeks ago. Their cowardice is why we have a national debt of nearly $22 trillion, why Obamacare remains the law of the land, and why they passed a mediocre tax cut instead of using the levers of power to build the wall, defund sanctuary cities, and reform our broken asylum system.

And their rush, immediately after the election, to reward the very same failed leadership team signals that most members have learned nothing.

Conservatives should pay close attention over the next few weeks and months. Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., is about to put on a clinic on how to use your majority to advance your agenda. And as we’ve seen before, she is not above sacrificing her majority if it means securing a long-term progressive policy win.

In many ways, it’s hard not to admire soon-to-be Speaker Pelosi. She rammed Obamacare through against the opposition of the American people without hesitation, suffered a historic electoral defeat, and has come back into power eight years later regretting nothing. If only conservatives had leaders even half as bold.

Floor focus

There are many bills coming to the floor this week. Of particular interest is a bill by Rep. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., that would create a new interagency initiative in Washington to “prevent violence, stabilize conflict-affected areas, and address the long-term causes of violence and fragility” overseas.

The Global Fragility and Violence Reduction Act of 2018 (H.R. 5273)

Sponsors: Rep. Eliot Engel, D-NY., Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, and Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas

Committee of Jurisdiction: House Committee on Foreign Affairs

What does the bill do? The bill would create a new interagency initiative that would evaluate “at risk” countries under a newly devised criteria to justify spending vast amounts of unspecified American tax dollars on foreign aid and nation-building exercises under the fundamentally flawed notion that such taxpayer pilfering can stop violence overseas, stabilize other nations, and eliminate poverty. 

Should conservatives be concerned? Yes. And not just because of the fundamentally flawed philosophy behind the legislation. Despite decades of failed consensus policies that have emanated from the bipartisan foreign policy establishment, this legislation, which will pass overwhelmingly on the floor or unanimously by voice vote, will be used to justify increased foreign aid to nations that hate the United States or resent our involvement.

It is the brainchild of individuals who lack the ability to think creatively about the problems we face. They also believe hardworking Americans should be forced by the power of their own government to transfer their money to nations and peoples who hate them.

This is what your Republican leadership has deemed worthy of floor time for their final hours of majority control. Is it any wonder they were thrown out?

The Senate outlook: Playing the Left’s game

The Senate came back into session yesterday to begin a series of votes on presidential nominees, including two judicial nominees — one for the eastern district of North Carolina and one to serve on the Eight Circuit. Additionally, there will be a vote on Kathleen Kraninger to serve as the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

Since the inception of the CFPB, following the passage of Dodd-Frank, conservatives and the GOP have repeatedly called for the full removal of the rogue agency. Legislation has been introduced in both chambers to accomplish this.

The CFPB ostensibly issues regulations on financial institutions such as banks, credit services, and payday lenders for consumer transparency. In reality, it harms the very consumers it claims to protect by restricting information from consumers, arbitrarily regulating industries it deems “risky,” and disproportionately targeting smaller community banks with its regulatory reach.

Furthermore, the agency is funded almost entirely by the transfer of earnings within the Federal Reserve System and sits outside the congressional appropriations process. It is therefore almost entirely immune to congressional oversight, since Congress doesn’t have even the basic Article I power of the purse over this agency. Because of this fact, current Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh declared the agency’s very structure unconstitutional when he sat on the D.C. Court of Appeals.

This structure was intentional on the part of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of the agency’s primary proponents, and other progressive statists in the Obama administration who wanted to create an agency capable of regulating specific markets without the inconvenience that comes from oversight of democratically elected members of Congress.

After former Director Richard Cordray resigned for his failed bid to be the next governor of Ohio, the president appointed Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney to oversee CFPB’s operations on an interim basis. Progressives cried foul as Mulvaney began tying the hands of the unaccountable bureaucrats running the CFPB.

Some right-leaning outlets have praised Kraninger as the reformer needed to bring the agency to heel. That may very well be true. But reform is not what the CFPB needs. It needs termination. The United States Senate, ostensibly guided by the “visionary” leadership of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., should refuse to appoint anyone to an agency that is self-evidently unconstitutional.

Instead, Senate Republicans are content to play the same tired Washington game. Progressives create a new unconstitutional agency or program. Conservatives lambast it and promise to eliminate it. And within a relatively short amount of time, repeal turns to “replace” or “reform,” and progressivism marches on unimpeded.

The solution is to stop playing the game altogether. If the agency’s removal cannot be accomplished in the short term, then Congress should refuse to appoint anyone to lead this rogue agency. Legislators should begin to dry up CFPB’s funding through the appropriations process. They should change the statute to put the CFPB’s budget under appropriations control and then shut down the bureaucrats working there by freezing their pay, limiting their ability to hire new people, and inflicting severe morale issues so that these people either quit or are forced to undo the regulatory damage they’ve inflicted.

Instead, Senate Republicans will simply nominate someone on Team Red to run this rogue agency in a slightly more acceptable manner and call it a victory, while the agency continues to target entire industries for destruction in the name of “consumer protection.”

Liberty outlook

Summary: Both chambers are back in session this week. The House is wasting its precious final few weeks under GOP control to rename post offices, pass meaningless or harmful suspension bills, and avoid “shutting down” the government over funding border security provisions. The Senate is actively working to cement a rogue and unconstitutional agency while working behind the scenes to bring the First Step Act to the floor. Therefore, this week’s congressional Liberty Outlook is: Code red.

The House outlook

The House is in recess through the Thanksgiving holiday and will return on Tuesday, November 27, to begin what is expected to be a brutal lame-duck session for conservatives.

On the legislative agenda is a final conference report on the nearly $1 trillion food and farm welfare bill, an expiring continuing resolution that funds the Department of Homeland Security, State Department, and other agencies, and a potential battle over the FIRST STEP Act, a soft-on-crime jailbreak bill destined to put more criminals on our streets in the name of “bipartisanship.”

It’s critical that Republicans secure a policy victory on border security and immigration reform during the lame-duck session as part of the debate on DHS funding. At a minimum, there must be substantive wins on securing border wall funding, defunding sanctuary cities, and reforming the broken asylum process.

But this must not come at the expense of a “compromise” amnesty for DACA recipients. If the parameters of the debate are set on those terms, conservatives will lose. The end result will be a full path to citizenship for the DACA population — despite that population being riddled with criminals — and toothless border security that aims to placate the Republican electorate without resolving the underlying problem.

Instead, House Republicans should refuse to pass — or even debate passage — of a conference report for the tone-deaf FIRST STEP Act, should the Senate pass its version, unless and until all border security policy demands are met. This sets the stage for a potential win-win on both policy and messaging.

If the tradeoff for passage of the FIRST STEP Act (and the release of drug traffickers into our communities) is linked with full wall funding, defunding of sanctuary cities, and asylum reform, then progressives and the misguided Koch-funded conservatives working hand in hand with them on passing jailbreak will be put into a terrible position. They will be forced to deal with the fact that the opioid epidemic that killed some 30,000 Americans last year is actually a border issue. This will link that crisis to immigration in the minds of the American people and will force the Soros-Koch coalition pushing the FIRST STEP Act into the untenable position of defending the release of individuals who have trafficked the same fentanyl-laced drugs that have caused tens of thousands of American families to bury their kin.

This will inevitably cause the FIRST STEP Act to be watered down and pared back, will give conservatives the advantage they need in pushing back on the bipartisan soft-on-crime agenda, increase the likelihood that actual border security provisions will be enacted, and most importantly, divorce a potential DACA amnesty from the border security debate.

The “leadership” race

As is typical in Washington, the status quo reigns. Sitting Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who has served as part of the feckless GOP leadership team since 2009, was elected by the Republican conference to be the incoming minority leader. In a closed-ballot election, McCarthy defeated conservative challenger Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, 159-43.

This is obviously discouraging, but it should not be surprising. Jordan’s bid was a long shot from the beginning. Nevertheless, he received almost double the number of votes that then-Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., secured in his effort to oust former Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, as leader of the GOP following the party’s 2006 electoral loss.

The path forward is clear: The House Freedom Caucus must declare its independence from the Republican Party. This is the only way to begin the long and necessary process to both regain the trust of the public and start winning hearts and minds over to liberty, free markets, and empowering civil society instead of government bureaucracy.

This doesn’t mean working against GOP leadership and aiding the hardline progressive radicals in a likely Pelosi-led House. But it does mean separating from a stagnant, inertia-laden GOP that lacks both vision and competence.

It means the House Freedom Caucus should lay out its own policy agenda, set its own messaging, and define the legislative battle lines on its own terms. The HFC not only maintained most of its membership, but picked up several members in the election. It therefore already has a greater influence in a diminished Republican conference.

The same cannot be said for the liberal Tuesday Group wing of the GOP conference. This group was decimated on November 6. This faction was the primary obstacle to actually repealing Obamacare, constantly pressed for amnesty for the DACA population, and worked alongside Democrats to increase our debt and deficit.

Indeed, Rep. Tom MacArthur, R-N.J., was the main culprit in crafting an Obamacare “compromise” bill last year that maintained the cost-driving insurance regulations responsible for doubled premiums and diminished access to care. He lost. Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., was a leading agitator for a path to citizenship for the DACA population. He lost. Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., was the champion of a massive big-government, poverty-inducing carbon tax bill that would have Washington regulating our light switches. He lost. And Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif., repeatedly attempted to sneak amnesty provisions into defense bills during his tenure in Congress, while also pressing for massive taxpayer funding of pet infrastructure projects. He also lost.

May none of these statists ever run for anything ever again. Now it’s time for an intact and empowered Freedom Caucus to take charge.

The Senate outlook

The Senate is also in recess this week and is expected to return on Monday, November 26. It looks like the GOP will pick up a net of two seats in the Senate, which will help Republicans confirm judges without the necessity of votes from liberals like Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska.

However, the Senate’s policy agenda will remain aligned against the interests of conservatives. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has yet to show an interest in serving as a bulwark against the radical progressive excesses of a Nancy Pelosi-led House. The first test of whether or not the Senate will work with House conservatives to secure policy wins will be the FIRST STEP Act.

The GOP-led Senate must provide the leverage that House conservatives will need to extract border and immigration policy wins. This means holding up passage the FIRST STEP Act unless and until Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., agrees to provide the votes for a strong DHS funding bill.

FIRST STEP Act (S. 3649)

Sponsors: Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa and Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.

Committee of Jurisdiction: Senate Committee on the Judiciary

What does the bill do? The bill would provide a number of “sentencing reform” measures alongside re-entry provisions for prisoners. Among these measures is providing judges (many of whom are left-leaning) discretion to ignore mandatory minimums to release “non-violent” first-time drug offenders. It would spend nearly $400 million in new funding on “job training and education programs” for rehabilitation. It would fix the so-called “crack cocaine disparity” that punished crack cocaine offenders more harshly than powder cocaine offenders by essentially releasing up to 2,600 felons back onto the streets. And it would also provide retroactive early-release credits for prisoners by altering how the Bureau of Prisons calculates “good time served.”

Should conservatives be concerned? In a hair-on-fire way. While being touted as something that saves money due to the alleged reduction of incarceration costs, the bill allocates nearly $400 million in new spending for job training and education programs. It’s important to remember that most federal prisoners are violent offenders who pose a danger to society. That’s why they’re there in the first place.

The bill would provide early release for up to 2,000 inmates each year, while providing a litany of exceptions to eligibility for early release. However, because these exceptions are written explicitly into the law, there are critical loopholes that proponents refuse to discuss. These loopholes would allow early-release credits to be given to people who have been convicted of assaulting law enforcement officers, those convicted of possessing weapons during a drug bust so long as they didn’t discharge it, and illegal aliens convicted of drug trafficking unless they had previously been deported for committing felonies.

Conservatives believe in protecting civil society and empowering it, as opposed to expanding the size and scope of government. This does not mean, however, a softening on criminals and drug traffickers who inflict chaos and violence in our neighborhoods and communities. Indeed, such an approach is anathema to conservatism, which believes in the rule of law as essential to protecting the law-abiding and putting the interests of victims ahead of their criminal victimizers.

The American Revolution changed the world because it understood that our rights come from God and that government is only necessary to ensure that the rule of law is established to protect these rights from man’s infringement. Aside from big-government tyranny, criminals and foreign forces pose the most direct threat to the rights of the American people.

The push for the FIRST STEP Act shows that many so-called conservative organizations have not only forgotten this truth, but also may no longer be interested in remembering it.

Liberty outlook

Summary: Both chambers are out this week for the Thanksgiving break. Republicans didn’t learn from their failures that led to the loss of the House on November 6 and put Kevin McCarthy in charge of the conference. This is a bad but not unexpected outcome. Fortunately, with both chambers in recess, no immediate harm can come from Washington at a time when we gather with our families in thankfulness for the many blessings that God and His gift of liberty have bestowed upon us. Therefore, this week’s congressional Liberty Outlook is: Code green.

The House outlook

It’s Election Day, and the House of Representatives remains in recess until next week. Which House races should conservatives be watching closely today?

The latest Cook Political Report shows bad news for the GOP: Eight races have shifted in favor of Democrats over the past week, including the district currently held by Rep. Scott Perry, R-Penn., who is one of the stronger members of the House Freedom Caucus.

Key races

Member: Dave Brat, R-Va.

First Elected: 2014 (Virginia special election)

Liberty Score: 97%

Policy Strengths: Dave Brat is an economics professor. When he defeated then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., in a special election in 2014, he sent shock waves around the political world. He is exceptionally strong on immigration policy and spending, and he has been a leader in creative solutions to balance the budget. He has also historically had very strong conservative staffers, many of whom have gone on to advance liberty in other Hill offices and outside groups.

Race Outlook: The current Cook Political Rating is “toss-up.” The last round of public polling has Rep. Brat up two points over his challenger.

Member: Scott Perry, R-Penn.

First Elected: 2012

Liberty Score: 89%

Policy Strengths: Scott Perry is a former brigadier general in the Pennsylvania National Guard. He has been a strong behind-the-scenes force for the Freedom Caucus since its inception. He is easily the best member of the Pennsylvania congressional delegation and is exceptionally strong on defense, spending, immigration, and energy issues.

Race Outlook: The current Cook Political Rating has moved this race from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” The final round of polling has Rep. Perry up two points over his challenger.

Member: Ted Budd, R-N.C.

First Elected: 2016

Liberty Score: 95%

Policy Strengths: A gun store owner by trade, Ted Budd has been one of conservatism’s bright stars in recent years. He has great instincts, has hired solid conservative staff, and does what few other members do: lives out his conservative principles. He is a strong opponent of cronyism and a leader on energy issues and the Second Amendment.

Race Outlook: The current Cook Political Rating has this race listed as “toss-up.” The last round of public polling had Rep. Budd up three points.

Member: George Holding, R-N.C.

First Elected: 2012

Liberty Score: 80%

Policy Strengths: One of the key features of George Holding’s tenure in Congress is that he has actually become more conservative the longer he’s been in office. This is a rare trend, only achieved in recent memory by a handful of conservative lions like former Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Texas. He is strong on immigration and regulatory issues.

Race Outlook: The current Cook Political Rating has this race listed as “lean Republican.” The last round of public polling has Rep. Holding up nine points.

Candidate: Chip Roy, R-Texas

First Elected: N/A

Liberty Score: N/A

Policy Strengths: A former federal prosecutor, chief of staff to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, leader in the conservative movement, and cancer survivor, Chip possesses what few other members or candidates possess: a true north compass combined with a backbone to fight for liberty. If he wins, expect him to be an immediate leader on reducing the debt, securing the border, and fighting for health care freedom.

Race Outlook: This race will all come down to turnout in the hyper-conservative Texas Hill country, which still maintains a vibrant Tea Party movement. Part of the district is in progressive Travis County, which contains Austin. Available public polling has had Chip Roy up consistently, and the Cook Political Rating has this race listed as “likely Republican.”

Disclosure: I have served as a policy adviser for Chip Roy’s campaign.

Candidate: Ron Wright, R-Texas

First Elected: N/A

Liberty Score: N/A

Policy Strengths: Endorsed by the fiscal hawks of the Club for Growth, Ron Wright has campaigned on reducing the national debt, securing the border, and growing the economy by limiting government and the regulatory state. He spent 30 years working in the private sector before serving as a Capitol Hill aide for retiring Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas. He has most recently served as Tarrant County tax assessor.

Race Outlook: The current Cook Political Rating has this race listed as “likely Republican.”

Separate from these half-dozen key races today, there are GOP members who are surely heading for defeat, including Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and Rep. Kevin Yoder, R-Kansas. Both of these members have shown incredible weakness with regard to spending, health care, and immigration issues, arguably the lynchpin issues of the conservative base.

Rep. Coffman has been one of the main agitators for amnesty within the progressive Tuesday Group caucus for years. And Rep. Kevin Yoder worked this past year to insert language into the Homeland Security appropriations bill that undermined the administration’s efforts to properly define “credible fear” for asylum purposes.

While these losses will mean Democrat pickups, conservatives should console themselves with the reminder that neither of these members actually advanced liberty and often worked against it. Good riddance.

The Senate outlook

The Senate is expected to remain in GOP hands after today’s election returns, but anything could happen. There are three key races for conservatives to watch:

Member: Ted Cruz, R-Texas

First Elected: 2012

Liberty Score: 88%

Policy Strengths: Since his rise to prominence in 2012, Senator Cruz has been a conservative leader memorable for his various fights to defund Obamacare, stop the Gang of 8 amnesty bill, and prevent the Schumer gun-grabbing bill, as well as for his frequent battles with GOP leadership. Following the 2016 presidential race, he shifted away from his firebrand persona, and his voting record, unfortunately, shows it. Nevertheless, he still remains a policy leader on protecting the Second Amendment, border security, and repealing Obamacare.

Race Outlook: The latest Cook Political Rating has this race listed as “toss-up.” Sen. Cruz has much working against him despite being in deep red Texas. Many establishment Republicans have never liked his Tea Party brand. More hard-line Trump supporters still resent his denouncement of the president at the GOP convention. And movement conservatives have been disappointed in his voting record and lack of fight in recent years. The last round of polls shows this race tightening and Senator Cruz up an average six points over his challenger, Rep. Robert “I’m Irish but Pretend Not to Be” O’Rourke, R-Texas.

Candidate: Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn.

First Elected: 2002 (House of Representatives)

Liberty Score: 80%

Policy Strengths: Having served 16 years in Congress, Rep. Blackburn has built a brand that is strong on immigration, energy policy, and telecommunications issues. She has long been a champion of keeping the government’s hands off the internet and for securing the southern border. Her election to the Senate would immediately improve the conservative makeup of the body.

Race Outlook: The latest Cook Political Rating has this race listed as “toss-up.” Despite running against a popular Blue Dog Democrat former governor, Rep. Blackburn maintained an average five-point lead in the last round of polls.

Candidate: Matt Rosendale, R-Mont.

First Elected: N/A

Liberty Score: N/A

Policy Strengths: Matt Rosendale is one of the few Republicans, aside from Chip Roy, who has successfully articulated that Obamacare’s onerous insurance mandates are the reason that premiums have doubled. He has advocated for repealing these federal regulations and advancing health care freedom despite many Republicans foolishly claiming that they will “protect” these destructive pre-existing conditions regulations that have made insurance unaffordable and diminished overall quality of care.

Race Outlook: The Cook Political Rating has this race listed as “toss-up.” Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., has long been a popular figure in the conservative state despite routinely voting with progressive leaders like Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. The last round of public polls has Sen. Tester up an average 4.5 points.

Liberty outlook

Summary: Both chambers are in recess until next week. Today is Election Day, and it’s vital that conservatives protect their own as a progressive wave approaches to wipe out a Republican majority that has largely failed to live up to its promises for the past eight years. All indications suggest that the House is likely to flip to Democrat control and that the GOP is likely to retain control of the Senate, with possible pick-ups. But such indicators have been wrong before, and anything can happen. Therefore, this week’s congressional Liberty Outlook is: Code yellow.

Go vote like your republic depends on it. It does.