Cook Political Report shifted New York Republican Rep. Mike Lawler's race from "toss up" to "lean Republican" on Friday, despite Democrats' efforts to recoup their losses from the 2022 midterm cycle.

Lawler won his seat in New York's 17th Congressional District, a +3 Democrat district, by fewer than 2,000 votes, unseating Democratic incumbent Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. Lawler and Republican Reps. Brandon Williams, Anthony D'Esposito, and Marc Molinaro all flipped their seats in the 2022 midterms.

The New York races may be particularly consequential given the Republicans' narrowing majority in the House.

Of the four New York Republican incumbents, Lawler's odds of re-election are the strongest. Molinaro's and D'Esposito's seats are both ranked "toss up," while Williams' seat is rated "lean Democrat." The latest polls show the freshman congressman with a slim advantage over Democratic challenger Mondaire Jones.

Jones formerly served New York's 17th Congressional District from 2021 to 2023 before running for New York's 10th Congressional District after a new congressional map was drawn in 2022.

"Mondaire Jones has spent the better part of the past two years trying to rewrite history, and no one is buying it," Savannah Viar, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement. "The momentum is on the side of common-sense leader Mike Lawler, who will be re-elected in November."

The New York races may be particularly consequential given the Republicans' narrowing majority in the House. Of the 435 seats, three are vacant, while Republicans currently hold 220 seats and Democrats hold 212.

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