US Negotiating With ‘NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE REGIME,’ Trump Says, But Will Strike Energy Infrastructure Without a Deal

President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Monday that his administration is negotiating with "A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME" in Iran but that he is prepared to destroy the Islamic Republic's oil, gas, and electrical infrastructure if it does not reach a ceasefire deal with the United States soon.

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I saw the sky light up over Dubai. The real shock came next.



Two weeks ago, I was caught in Dubai for a layover when the war suddenly became very real. While driving back from a pleasant sunset walk along Dubai Creek, my Uber driver suddenly yelled, “Brother, look at the sky!” Peering through the windshield, we watched as the UAE air defense system lit up the sky orange as it intercepted multiple drones, one of which we would later learn struck near the U.S. consulate in Dubai, causing a fire; fortunately, it was quickly extinguished, and there were no fatalities.

To say that war in the Middle East has become a state of normality would be a profound and unfortunate understatement. As drones and missiles fly overhead, the majority of which are intercepted, people go about their day as if nothing has changed. In Dubai, I had the privilege of witnessing an exceptional demonstration of resilience, an unwillingness to give in to fear as the very clear and present danger grows with each passing day.

The resilience I saw in Dubai, where life continued amid ongoing attacks, now faces an even greater test as the global energy supply chain is under strain.

Operation Epic Fury is ongoing and will have long-lasting impacts that will reverberate not only across the region but also worldwide. Iran is one of the world's largest producers of crude oil and has some of the largest known reserves. Decades of sanctions have left the country with a very limited customer base for its oil, with the majority of it going to China at heavily discounted prices.

For this reason, with the possibility of regime change in Iran, China stands to lose a significant portion of its discounted oil supply, especially when combined with the shift in political direction in Venezuela, another vital source of heavily discounted seaborne imports for the Chinese Communist Party.

Additionally, as the Strait of Hormuz is not effectively closed, a halt of up to a fifth of the global oil and liquified natural gas supply, which comes from the other major regional suppliers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, is now beginning to take its toll on energy prices across the world.

Dire Strait

Serving as the bridge between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important strategic chokepoints in the world. With an astounding 20% of global petroleum liquid products flowing through the Strait, it plays a vital role in both the global economy and the economies of the Gulf states.

For example, of the total oil that moves through the Strait, 38% is sourced from Saudi Arabia, a nation where 53.4% of the government’s revenue came from oil in 2025. Furthermore Qatar exports all of its 9.3 billion cubic feet per day of liquid natural gas through the Strait, accounting for most of the LNG transiting through it.

These nations are heavily dependent on revenues earned from oil and gas exports, which is why Iran is targeting both the Strait and the Gulf nations’ energy supply chains. Unable to strike the U.S. mainland, Iran is attacking the Gulf states that support the ongoing U.S. military presence in the region.

The impact from closing the Strait will not be limited to the region. With a substantial amount of exports destined for Asia, upwards of 83% in 2024, including China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Taiwan, the cost of energy in these countries is at risk of rising, which, given the sizable amount of manufacturing that takes place there, could lead to price rises for multiple sectors.

For this reason, China is pressuring Iran to allow for tankers to pass through and to continue shipments, given that China has not yet fully diversified its seaborne oil supply chain away from Iran. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even if not by blockade but simply by shippers unwilling to take the risk of asset loss and rising insurance costs, will remain a global market issue rather than a regional challenge.

The lack of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility that the Houthis in Yemen begin impeding transit through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea in solidarity with Iran will lead to higher costs for everything shipped from the region and manufactured in East Asia.

Attacking energy infrastructure

Part of Iran’s strategy involves a willingness to openly attack any Gulf state with a connection to the U.S., with new attacks expanding to include Azerbaijan and reaching as far as Cyprus. Iran is doing so with a particular focus on energy infrastructure, recognizing the importance of the energy sector to the regional economy.

Multiple attacks have taken place targeting infrastructure in Qatar — impacting up to 17% of its LNG export capacity, the UAE, whose Shah gas field was struck, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia — which is putting pressure on a vital part of these countries’ economies.

If Iran is allowed to continue to inflict severe damage on the energy infrastructure of the Gulf states, while depleting their defensive stockpiles with a steady flow of drones and ballistic missile attacks, they will be placed into an even more vulnerable position both economically and militarily.

China’s reliance on Iranian oil

RELATED: The only Iran plan that doesn’t end with a 20-year hangover

Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

China imports almost all of the oil Iran exports, over 80% of it. The strategy is simple: Purchase oil from a heavily sanctioned country with few or no other customers, and enjoy a significant discount. The same strategy was implemented with Venezuela, though not to the same extent as with Iran, in terms of the volume of oil purchased.

The combination of Iranian and Venezuelan seaborne oil imports regularly accounts for 17% of China’s seaborne imports; 13.4% from Iran and 4% to 4.5%. If the war continues to escalate, or perhaps if Kharg Island’s energy infrastructure, which processes 90% of Iran’s oil for export, is attacked or occupied, China could potentially lose close to 20% of its seaborne imports. If the war leads to a regime change in Iran more favorable toward the West, or Iran’s ability to export discounted oil to China is impacted by either military action or the lifting of sanctions, it will be forced to aggressively diversify its seaborne oil imports.

What it means

I am fortunate to be concluding this piece from the comfort of my home in Arizona after an evacuation flight to San Francisco, a commuter flight to Los Angeles, and a final long drive home. Operation Epic Fury has effectively disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, unleashed waves of attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, and driven sharp increases in worldwide energy prices.

China stands to lose up to 20% of its discounted seaborne oil imports from Iran and Venezuela, while Asian economies face higher manufacturing costs that will be passed on to global consumers. The resilience I saw in Dubai, where life continued amid ongoing attacks, now faces an even greater test as the global energy supply chain is under strain. With escalation showing no signs of abating, volatility in oil, LNG, and gasoline prices has become the new normal, underscoring how deeply interconnected our world’s energy security truly is.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.

Senate Republicans Introduce Bill Boosting Defense Cooperation Between Abraham Accords Members

Sens. Ted Budd (R., N.C.) and Joni Ernst (R., Iowa) introduced legislation on Thursday that would significantly boost defense cooperation between signatories of the historic Abraham Accords agreement as the Islamic Republic lashes out at its Arab neighbors, according to a copy of the bill shared with the Washington Free Beacon.

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No Surprise: America Needs Our Allies More Than Ever

The world’s attention is fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s determination to cripple the global economy, and Donald Trump’s attempts to break the energy blockade. But, as Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s White House visit this week demonstrates, the wheel of history continues its relentless turn in other strategically vital parts of the world too.

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Indiana University’s Muslim Philanthropy Gave Fundraising Advice to ‘Sham Charity’ Bankrolling Hamas

An Islamic think tank at Indiana University has hosted multiple fundraising training events for a Turkish nonprofit that the Trump administration says is a "sham charity" secretly bankrolling the terrorist group Hamas.

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Oil could hit $200 per barrel if these conditions are met in Middle East: Citi



Brent crude, the primary global benchmark for oil prices, rose higher than $120 per barrel in early summer 2022, largely on account of the fallout from the war in Ukraine and increased demand in countries reopening after suffering through years of self-imposed COVID restrictions.

At the time, this generated a great deal of excitement and consternation, especially when U.S. gas prices soared to a record high of roughly $5 a gallon.

Americans may soon long for the days of $120 per barrel.

'Consumers continue to feel the sting of rising oil, gasoline, and diesel costs as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.'

Analysts at Citi said in a note on Wednesday that Brent crude — which recently saw an intraday high of nearly $120 a barrel and is presently trading over 65% above its level at the beginning of the year — could hit $200 a barrel if Tehran executes "broad energy infrastructure attacks" or keeps the Strait of Hormuz blocked until June, Investing.com reported.

Iran appears keen to satisfy both of these conditions.

Following the initial joint U.S. and Israel strikes on Feb. 28, Iran targeted energy facilities in its backyard, prompting various companies to wind down their production and shutter their facilities.

RELATED: Trump blasts allies over reluctance to join Iran conflict: 'WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!'

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Qatar's state-run QatarEnergy, for instance, shut down its LNG production complex following Iranian drone strikes at two of its facilities. OilPrice.com recently noted that even if the hostilities in the region ended immediately, it could take several weeks to restart production.

On Wednesday, Tehran issued a warning via state media to several Middle Eastern oil facilities — the Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex in Saudi Arabia; the Al Hosn Gas Field in the United Arab Emirates; and the Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex, Mesaieed Holding Company, and Ras Laffan Refinery in Qatar — notifying them of imminent strikes "in the coming hours," Reuters reported.

"These centers have become direct and legitimate targets and will be targeted ⁠in the coming hours," the warning said. "Therefore, all citizens, residents, and employees are requested to immediately leave these areas and move to a safe distance without ⁠any delay."

The warning, which was followed by a jump in the per-barrel price of Brent crude, came in the wake of airstrikes against the South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reserve which is shared by Iran and Qatar.

A source confirmed to the Jerusalem Post that several energy facilities in South Pars and the Iranian city of Asaluyeh were struck by the Israeli Air Force on Wednesday. Two senior Israeli officials told Axios that the attack was coordinated with and approved by the Trump administration.

Amid the attacks and threat of attacks on energy infrastructure, analysts at Citi wrote, "Brent prices will rally as the conflict continues over the coming days, to $110-120/bbl," adding that could be the "price or market event which drives the U.S. to end its military operation" or alternatively drives global powers to "forcefully reopen the Strait."

President Donald Trump has implored the international community to aid the U.S. in reopening the strait, emphasizing that China and other nations are far more reliant than America on the supply flowing down the strait.

According to Reuters, China received 1.6 billion barrels of crude oil over the past 14 months via the Strait of Hormuz; the rest of Asia collectively received 1.6 billion barrels; India received 1 billion barrels; Japan and South Korea each received 800 million barrels; the U.S. and Europe each received around 200 million barrels; and the rest of the world received a combined 300 million barrels.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that Vice President JD Vance and other administration officials plan to meet at the American Petroleum Institute on Thursday to meet with oil executives.

"We look forward to convening key officials — including Vice President Vance, Energy Secretary [Chris] Wright, bipartisan leaders in Congress, and governors — to discuss the role of American oil and natural gas in supporting reliable energy supply amid global volatility," Andrea Woods, a spokeswoman for the institute, told Bloomberg. "Our industry is focused on providing insight into market dynamics and strengthening American energy leadership and resilience for the long term."

The price-tracking service GasBuddy noted that as of Monday, the national average price of gasoline was up 80 cents per gallon from a month ago and 66.1 cents higher than a year ago.

"Consumers continue to feel the sting of rising oil, gasoline, and diesel costs as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, pushing gasoline prices to their highest levels in years while diesel could soon approach the $5-per-gallon mark nationally," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

"Until we see a meaningful resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist," De Haan continued. "At the same time, seasonal forces are beginning to intensify as several regions complete the transition to summer gasoline, creating a double headwind that could continue driving pump prices higher in the weeks ahead."

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'We Can Do That on Five Minutes' Notice': Trump Says Striking Iranian Oil Infrastructure On Kharg Island Is On the Table

President Donald Trump said Monday that he is open to destroying Iran’s multibillion-dollar oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, a central export hub the United States hit with a wave of strikes last week.

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'Die in your rage': Islamist attacks and murder plots are quickly adding up



Islamic terrorism may be undergoing a resurgence in the U.S., energized in part by the latest conflict in the Middle East.

According to a U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security terror threat assessment report published last year, there were over 50 jihadist cases in 30 states between April 2021 and June 2025, including vehicle ramming attacks and efforts to provide material support to ISIS.

Last year, for instance, started off with the slaughter of 14 Americans and the grievous injury of scores of additional victims in New Orleans by Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a radical whom the FBI revealed had pledged allegiance to ISIS.

'This isn’t a religion that just stands when people talk about the blessed name of the prophet.'

The perennial threat of violence by adherents of Islamist ideology do not appear to be letting up — and if the rash of attacks and attempted attacks that have already occurred this month are any indication, the reverse might be true.

New York

A pair of Pennsylvania residents with alleged ties to radical Islam — Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi — were arrested on March 7 after two homemade improvised explosive devices were ignited near anti-Islam protesters outside Gracie Mansion in New York City.

"This was an alleged ISIS-inspired act of terrorism that could have killed American citizens," Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a statement.

RELATED: 'So pathetic': Virginia governor nailed with backlash over response to possible terror attack at Old Dominion

Department of Justice

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche noted, "These men allegedly sought to inflict mass casualties in service to ISIS with the hope of exceeding the carnage of the Boston Marathon bombing."

An FBI examination of the explosive devices revealed that "they were each approximately the size of a mason jar; that they each had an attached fuse; and that they each had nuts and bolts attached to the exterior, surrounded by duct tape," according to the criminal complaint.

The first device contained "TATP, a highly volatile explosive that is colloquially known as the 'Mother of Satan' and extremely sensitive to impact, friction, and heat. TATP has been used in multiple terrorist attacks over the last decade," the DOJ press release said.

According to the complaint, Balat allegedly told police after his arrest, "This isn’t a religion that just stands when people talk about the blessed name of the prophet. ... We take action! We take action!"

After arriving at the precinct, Balat allegedly requested a piece of paper and wrote, "All praise is due to Allah lord of all worlds! I pledge my allegiance to the Islamic State. Die in your rage yu [sic] kuffar!"

Kuffar or kafir is a derogatory Arabic term for a non-Muslim, an alternate to "infidel," used by radicals including Muhammad Masood — a Pakistani doctor who worked for the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, New York, and pleaded guilty in 2022 to attempting to provide ISIS with material support.

Virginia

On Thursday, an American who pleaded guilty in 2016 to similarly attempting to provide material support to ISIS opened fire on ROTC students in a classroom at Virginia's Old Dominion University.

'The unit is responsible for launching hundreds of rockets.'

Before heroic students subdued Mohamed Bailor Jalloh and "rendered him no longer alive," the 36-year-old shooter killed Lt. Col. Brandon Shah, a professor of military science at Old Dominion's Army Reserve Officers' Training Corps.

Dominique Evans, an FBI special agent, said that "prior to him conducting this act of terrorism, he shouted ... or stated 'Allahu akbar.'"

Authorities said that Jalloh admitted in 2016 to carrying out an attack similar to the Fort Hood massacre where Nidal Malik Hasan, a U.S. citizen whose radicalization to violent Islamist extremism was reportedly clear to his superiors and peers, murdered 12 U.S. service members and one Pentagon civilian employee.

Michigan

Just hours later on March 12, a Lebanese native rammed a vehicle into Temple Israel, a Detroit-area Reform synagogue with a preschool and religious education school on-site. Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, the suspect who reportedly killed himself when confronted by security personnel, appears at the very least to have been associated with Islamic terrorists.

Officials have confirmed that Ghazali, who was granted U.S. citizenship in February 2016, lost family members — including two brothers, Qassem and Ibrahim — in the recent Israeli military strikes in Lebanon.

The Israel Defense Forces alleged in a statement on Sunday that Ibrahim Ghazali was a Hezbollah commander "responsible for managing weapons operations within a specialized branch of the Badr Unit. The unit is responsible for launching hundreds of rockets toward Israeli civilians throughout the war."

Hassan Qazwini, the leader of the Islamic Institute of America in Dearborn Heights, told the New York Times that Ghazali attended a service at his center for the first time earlier this month.

Dearborn appears to have incubated a great many other Islamic radicals over the years.

'There were indicators.'

On Oct. 31, 2025, for instance, the FBI arrested a pair of Dearborn residents, Mohmed Ali and Majed Mahmoud, for allegedly planning to carry out a terrorist attack on behalf of ISIS. Ayob Nasser was later arrested and charged in connection with the alleged plot.

The trio — each of whom has been charged with conspiring to provide material support to ISIS as well as with having firearms that would be used to commit an act of terrorism on behalf of the jihadist terrorist organization — allegedly scouted the nearby city of Ferndale for possible targets.

Texas

In the early hours of March 1, a suspect armed with a pistol and a rifle opened fire outside Buford's Backyard Beer Garden in Austin, killing two individuals and wounding 14 others.

The man whom authorities identified as the shooter, 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne, shot at patrons outside the bar through the window of an SUV. He then parked the vehicle nearby and opened fire with a rifle on unsuspecting pedestrians.

Police intercepted the gunman, then permanently neutralized the threat.

Photo (center): Austin Police Department; Photo (background): FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images

The FBI indicated that "there were indicators ... on the subject and in his vehicle that indicate potential nexus to terrorism," and a law enforcement official told CNN that the dead suspect was wearing a shirt with an Iranian flag design on it as well as a hoodie emblazoned with the text, "Property of Allah."

A Quran was reportedly also recovered from Diagne's vehicle.

Diagne entered the U.S. from Senegal on a B-2 tourist visa in March 2000 and was naturalized in April 2013, seven years after his marriage to an American citizen. Over 97% of the Senegalese population identify as Muslim.

There was another incident earlier this month in the Lone Star State that had all of the markings of another potential tragedy.

Kyle Najm Chris, a 39-year-old Iraqi native who also goes by Muhi Mohanan Najm, entered Zwink Elementary School in Spring, Texas, through an unsecured door on March 10, allegedly armed with a holstered firearm and a taser and wearing military attire, reported KHOU-TV.

The Klein Independent School District said in a statement that when confronted by an employee and asked for identification, Chris — who became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2022 and reportedly has no affiliation with either the school or the district — allegedly declined to identify himself. Staff contacted the school's armed campus guard, and Chris, barred from entering deeper into the school on account of its "secure vestibule" system, left without incident.

Chris has been arrested and charged with felony possession of a prohibited weapon. He allegedly told authorities that he was a security guard, but court records reviewed by KRIV-TV show that the Iraqi native is currently unemployed and holds neither a security license nor a peace officer certification.

A neighbor told KTRK-TV that Chris is a veteran and suggested that this might be a misunderstanding.

Europe

In recent days, there have been multiple potential Islamist terrorist attacks in other Western nations.

On March 8, an IED was placed outside the U.S. embassy in Oslo, Norway. The blast caused minor damage and resulted in no injuries, reported the BBC.

Three brothers, all Norwegian citizens in their 20s with links to Iraq, were arrested in connection with the attack. Their mother was later arrested on suspicion of involvement with the attack. Frode Larsen, head of the Oslo police investigation unit, said that the bombing — which is being treated as a likely terrorism attack — may have been linked to the conflict unfolding in the Middle East, reported CBS News.

On March 9, an explosion went off outside the main doors of a synagogue in the Belgian city of Liège on March 9. The blast reportedly inflicted only minor damage and resulted in no injuries. Nevertheless, a group calling itself the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right reportedly claimed responsibility for the Liège bombing.

French police reportedly stopped a pair of Moroccan-Italian nationals last week whom they suspect were plotting a "lethal and anti-Semitic" attack. The suspects were found to be in the possession of a semi-automatic weapon, a bottle of hydrochloric acid, and an ISIS flag.

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Profiles in Terror

For those who need reminding, the late 1970s were a truly awful stretch for the United States of America: from stagflation at home to the Soviet Union and friends on the march in Afghanistan, Africa, and Central America, to the Khomeini revolution in Iran. David Frum's account of the period, How We Got Here, should be required reading for anyone under 40 now complaining that Ronald Reagan's conservatism didn't amount to a hill of beans in staving off national disaster. We were, as they say, thisclose.

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The False Choice Between Deterring China and Defeating Iran

As the Iranian regime bottles up the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump pulls out all the stops to protect energy shipments and mitigate the damage to the global economy, doubts and fears about the latest stage of the war with Iran are growing. One increasingly common argument is that further operations against Iran weaken the effort to deter China from military aggression, so Trump should declare victory pronto and go home.

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