With the 2026 primaries fast approaching, there are three U.S. Senate seats onlookers should keep an eye on.
Republicans are currently enjoying a supermajority after sweeping the 2024 elections, controlling the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate.
The freshman senator narrowly won his seat in 2020 by just one point.
After November, Republicans flipped four seats: Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Montana. These victories flipped the Senate and put Republicans in a comfortable 53-seat majority while Democrats fell back to just 47 seats.
Although the GOP has a healthy majority, there are some more potential pick-up opportunities — and losses — for Republicans going into next year's primaries.
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One of the most contentious Senate races will be for Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff's seat in Georgia. Several prominent challengers have emerged in recent months, most notably with Republican Rep. Mike Collins throwing his hat in the race back in July. Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has also been floated as a potential candidate, but she has not formally moved to run for the seat.
The freshman senator narrowly won his seat in 2020 by just one point against Republican incumbent Sen. David Perdue. Given this razor-thin margin, Republicans have set their sights on taking back Ossoff's seat, and early polling suggests it's within reach.
The Cook Political Report currently rates Ossoff's seat as a toss-up, and some polls mirror this rating. In a hypothetical race between Ossoff and Collins, the Democratic incumbent has polled with an average three-point advantage, according to RealClearPolitics. Another recent poll shows Collins trailing Ossoff by just one point, according to findings from TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics.
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Another pick-up opportunity for Republicans emerged in Michigan after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement in January. Several Democratic candidates, like Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, have since launched their own campaign bids, but the future nominee will inevitably have to put up a fight against Republican challengers.
Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is considered the frontrunner among the GOP candidates in the Michigan Senate race. Rogers previously ran and narrowly lost against Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, but he has since relaunched his Senate campaign with the hopes of flipping the swing-state seat.
Slotkin managed to defeat Rogers by just 0.3% in November, signaling the support behind the Republican challenger. Earlier in the year, Rogers was polling several points ahead of his Democratic counterparts, and Cook Political Report has rated the Senate seat a toss-up.
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Although Republicans are poised to potentially flip some seats, there may be some warning signs in the Midwest.
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa) reportedly will not seek re-election in 2026, leaving a vacancy in the deep-red state. The Cook Political Report has rated the seat as leaning Republican, and the GOP has maintained a prominent presence in Iowa at both the local and national level.
Despite the success Republicans have enjoyed in the Hawkeye State, Democrats have begun to secure their own electoral victories. Most recently, Democrat Catelin Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch for an open state Senate seat, flipping the GOP's supermajority for the first time in three years.
Steve Deace, a native Iowan and host of "The Steve Deace Show" on BlazeTV, told Blaze News that this swing in favor of Democrats is taking place because Iowans are not energized by any Republican candidates they have to choose from.
"There are danger signs, because if it can happen in Woodbury County, Iowa, this can happen anywhere in America," Deace said.
"Our people are just not motivated, by and large, to vote for the Republican Party brand as a brand anymore. So you’ve got to prove to them you’re worth their time and effort for them to show up, and I think that this is a wake-up call for the next midterm."
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Texas House Democrats appear desperate to spin their imminent return to the Lone Star State as a victory march. It's clear, however, that their weeks-long effort to thwart the will of the people and to prevent Republicans from passing new congressional lines was in vain.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) stressed to Blaze Media co-founder Glenn Beck on Wednesday that Republicans will ultimately prevail.
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Texas Democrats fled to Illinois and other blue states earlier this month to block the passage of a redistricting plan that would help the GOP gain five more congressional pickup opportunities ahead of the midterm elections.
Following the Democrat lawmakers' departure, Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows (R) signed arrest warrants for the absentee legislators, Abbott ordered their arrests by the Texas Department of Public Safety, and the FBI agreed to collaborate on the hunt.
Meanwhile, Attorney General Ken Paxton opened investigations into a George Soros-funded political action committee and a group organized by failed gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke, which are both suspected of helping fund the Democrats' abrupt exit.
Paxton also readied a court request to remove the absentee legislators from office.
In the face of significant heat from Texas and the prospect of a chilly winter in exile, the absentee legislators have reportedly decided to return.
Trying to save face, Texas House Democrats said in a release that they have "killed this corrupt special session on behalf of Texas families — exactly what we said we'd do when we left the state."
Gov. Abbott announced on Tuesday, however, that he will immediately call another special session to get the matter resolved — much simpler after the Texas Senate voted 19-2 on Tuesday to pass the new congressional lines.
Abbott suggested to Beck that Democrats realized after his Tuesday announcement of another special session that "they were going to have to take up permanent residency in Illinois or California or wherever."
'There's so many things wrong with that.'
"So the word on the street and the word in the news is that they are coming back, and they will be part of the special session that begins either on Friday of this week or Saturday of this week," said the governor. "But again, we'll see when and if they show up."
Abbott noted that regardless of whether the Democratic legislators show up to work, "these congressional district maps — they're going to pass as well as the other items on the agenda. They are going to pass."
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When asked about whether Republicans have enough votes in the state House to pass the maps, the governor noted that all that is needed is a majority, and the GOP controls nearly two-thirds of the chamber.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) indirectly threatened Abbott in a Monday letter to President Donald Trump, noting that if Texas Republicans do not surrender on this issue, he "will be forced to lead an effort to redraw the maps in California to offset the rigging of maps in red states."
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When asked to respond to Newsom, Abbott said, "Oh, my God," then broke out into laughter.
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"There's so many things wrong with that," said the governor. "In Texas, for us to redraw congressional lines and make sure that people in Texas are going to have the ability to vote for the Republican candidate of their choice in these congressional seats, all it requires is for the governor to call a special session on it and for a majority of the Texas House and Senate to vote on it."
Abbott noted that for redistricting California, Democrats must alternatively "go through this complex constitutional process."
In addition to suggesting Newsom's threat is easier said than done, Abbott noted it's virtually meaningless given how gerrymandered California — like Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts — is in the first place.
"[Newsom] is kind of like someone who shows up to a gunfight but forgot to bring the bullets because he doesn't have any bullets to shoot in this fight," said Abbott. "Whereas Texas has plenty of bullets to shoot — to make sure that we will maintain a congressional district in Texas that's going to be more Republican, more representative of the values and votes in our state."
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The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which has traditionally backed Democrat politicians, is increasingly directing its support toward Republicans ahead of next year's midterm elections.
For the first time in nearly 30 years, the Teamsters, representing 1.3 million members, did not endorse the Democratic Party's presidential candidate last year.
'Our members are working people whose interests cut across party lines.'
President Sean O'Brien claimed the union's decision not to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris was due to her failure to answer all of his members' questions during a roundtable discussion and her alleged arrogant remark that she would win "with you or without you," referring to the union.
Leading up to Harris' failed race against President Donald Trump last year, O'Brien openly declared that the Democratic Party had abandoned working-class Americans.
"I'll be honest with you, I'm a Democrat, but they have f**ked us over for the last 40 years," he remarked at the time.
While the union did not endorse either presidential candidate, O'Brien spoke last year at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
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Following the presidential race, the Teamsters have continued to place more financial support behind Republican candidates, Politico reported.
The Teamsters' political action committee — Democrat, Republican, Independent Voter Education — reportedly donated $112,000 to Republicans, including $5,000 to the National Republican Congressional Committee and $50,000 to the Republican Attorneys General Association.
When asked for comment, Teamsters spokesperson Kara Deniz directed Blaze News to her previous statements made to Politico.
"Our members are working people whose interests cut across party lines," Deniz told the outlet. "And there's no value in living in a bubble … where you only talk to certain people to the exclusion of others."
Republican candidates who received Teamster contributions included Reps. Rob Bresnahan (Pa.), Mike Kelly (Pa.), Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.), and Chris Smith (N.J.). The Teamsters also donated to several Republican senators, including Deb Fischer (Neb.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Jon Husted (Ohio), and Dave McCormick (Pa.).
NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella told Politico, "Hardworking men and women across the country are rallying behind Republicans up and down the ballot because we fight for their jobs, their families, and their future."
"Democrats have abandoned them for their deeply out-of-touch, radical policies. We're bringing these voters home, and they will be key in growing our House majority," Marinella said.
While the Teamsters' contributions to Republicans have significantly increased, the union still gives more donations to Democrats. The DRIVE PAC reportedly dished out $200,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association and $100,000 to the Democratic Governors Association during the second quarter.
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Repeating a strategy from their 2021 playbook, scores of Texas House Democrats fled the Lone Star State on Sunday — a decision they may come to regret.
The last time that they abandoned their posts en masse, Texas House Democrats were attempting to prevent the passage of legislation that would improve election integrity. This time around, the legislators are desperately trying to block a redistricting plan that would help the GOP gain five more congressional pickup opportunities ahead of the midterm elections.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) indicated that unless the "derelict Democrat House members" returned to Texas and showed up when the House reconvened at 3:00 p.m. on Monday, they would be removed from office.
Abbott noted further that the absentee legislators could face felony charges if they sought and/or took money to avoid the vote and pay down their $500-per-day fine for breaking the quorum.
Now that the deadline has passed and Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows (R) announced Monday afternoon that a "quorum is not present," Abbott quickly made clear that there would be real consequences.
The eponymous host of BlazeTV's "Sara Gonzales Unfiltered" told Blaze News, "Governor Abbott must hold these lawless Democrats accountable. Our leadership cannot allow Democrats to dictate the direction of the state when the Texans voted for a clear Republican majority."
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"Governor Abbott and Speaker of the House Dustin Burrows face what may be the most defining moment of their careers today," continued Gonzales. "Vacate the seats, issue arrest warrants, and charge those soliciting donations to evade fines with felonies. Set a precedent that this can never happen again."
"It is imperative that Texas leads on this," added the BlazeTV host.
Blaze Media co-founder Glenn Beck noted that he hopes, "if a court approves it, that Governor Abbott replaces every one of them."
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When making his threat on Sunday, Abbott referred to an August 2021 advisory opinion from Attorney General Ken Paxton, which states that "through a quo warranto action, a district court may determine that a legislator has forfeited his or her office due to abandonment and can remove the legislator from office, thereby creating a vacancy."
While uncertain about the speediness and workability of the removal proposal, Paxton appeared confident on Monday that state Republicans would ultimately prevail with the help of Abbott's resolve, Democrat arrests, and time.
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"Now that they've let them out of the state, it's going to take a little longer," Paxton told Benny Johnson, "but I am very optimistic if the governor — and I believe the governor will have resolve — if keeps calling them back, it's going to be a challenge for all 51 of them to stay out of the state for the rest of their lives."
After the Monday deadline, Paxton stated, "Instead of showing up to work and doing the jobs they were elected to do, House Democrat members have fled the state in a cowardly desertion of their responsibilities as elected officials. These jet-setting runaways abandoned Texas, abdicated their duties in the House, and sacrificed their constituents for a publicity stunt."
"I am prepared to do everything in my power to hold them accountable because these liberal lawmakers are not above the law," continued Paxton. "It's imperative that they be swiftly arrested, punished, and face the full force of the law for turning their backs on the people of Texas."
The Texas House passed a motion Monday to issue arrest warrants for the Democrats who abandoned their posts.
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House Democrats who broke quorum can be dragged into the state legislature thanks to a 2021 Texas Supreme Court ruling.
After the House issued warrants to compel members back to the chamber, Abbott announced that he had ordered the Texas Department of Public Safety to "locate, arrest, and return to the House chamber any member who has abandoned their duty to Texans."
"This order will remain in effect until all missing Democrat House members are accounted for and brought to the Texas Capitol," added the governor.
Aaron Reitz, a Republican candidate for Texas attorney general and former Trump Department of Justice official, told Blaze News, "Governor Abbott has made clear what needs to happen. Democrats should return to work and accept that Texas will have these maps — whether the Left likes it or not. Their resistance is futile."
Reitz took aim at the Democrat legislators' rhetoric surrounding their collective abdication of duty, noting, "Democrats are accusing Republicans of anti-democratic behavior to distract from their own. This isn’t a power-grab — these new districts more accurately reflect the political preferences and geographic realities of Texas voters and comply with current court rulings."
"The real issue for Democrats is that these maps ruin their plan to seize a House majority in 2026," continued Reitz. "That’s why they’re resorting to political stunts instead of doing their jobs."
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As the 2026 midterms loom, some career Republican politicians are facing primary challenges for their long-held positions. Lindsey Graham, who has represented South Carolina in the Senate for four terms, is facing an increasingly crowded field of challengers as he seeks re-election for a fifth term.
Paul Dans, who is known as the architect of the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, will reportedly be announcing his bid for Graham's Senate seat later this week. While Trump has publicly distanced himself from the 1,000-page policy proposal for the new administration, critics and supporters alike have noted that there is a good degree of overlap between Project 2025 and his own "Agenda 47."
'If you look at where the chokepoint is, it’s the United States Senate. That’s the headwaters of the swamp.'
Any Republican primary challenge to oust Graham will likely be a steep uphill battle. Trump gave Graham his blessing in a July 9 Truth Social post wishing him a happy birthday, featuring an image of the two of them on the golf course: "I hope everyone in the Great State of South Carolina will help LINDSEY have a BIG WIN in his Re-Election bid next year."
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Graham has faced his share of criticism from Republicans. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has even called Graham "the ideological twin of Liz Cheney" in the past, showing his frustration with Trump's support for Graham.
“What we’ve done with Project 2025 is really change the game in terms of closing the door on the progressive era,” Dans said in an AP interview. ”If you look at where the chokepoint is, it’s the United States Senate. That’s the headwaters of the swamp.”
"It's time to show [Graham] the door," he added in the interview.
Alongside Dans, former South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer announced his campaign for Graham's Senate seat earlier this month as well as Mark Lynch, who was the first to announce his challenge in February. Both are challenging the incumbent in his primary. Democrat Annie Andrews has also announced her campaign for the seat.
Dans will reportedly be announcing his campaign bid on Wednesday at a prayer breakfast and kickoff event at a Charleston venue.
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