EU signals desperation to avoid trade war with Trump, desire to buy American gas



President-elect Donald Trump is still months away from taking office, yet the European Union already appears desperate to cut a deal with him.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, addressed members of the European Council in Budapest, Hungary, Friday, signaling a desire to avoid a trade war with the United States and to switch from Russian to American gas.

When asked how she intends to negotiate with Trump on trade, Leyen answered, "I think first of all: Engage. Very important what we have started yesterday."

Leyen was referencing her phone call with Trump Thursday, where she apparently congratulated him on his landslide electoral victory. The German politician noted on X that they discussed defense, Ukraine, trade, and energy.

"Secondly, discuss about common interests. And there are common interests that we have," continued Leyen. "Then go into negotiations."

'They are going to have to pay a big price.'

Leyen said that liquid natural gas was among the common interests she briefly discussed with Trump this week, noting that Europe still gets "a lot of LNG via Russia, from Russia."

According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, in the first half of 2024, Europe sourced 48% of its LNG imports from U.S., 16% from Russia, 11% from Algeria, 10% from Qatar, and 4% from Nigeria and Norway.

"Why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices?" said Leyen. "It's something where we can get into a discussion, also [where] our trade deficit is concerned."

The U.S. Census Bureau indicated Tuesday that the trade deficit with the EU in September was $23.8 billion, contributing to the year-to-date trade deficit of $173 billion.

Trump indicated in October that the EU would have to "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports, reported Reuters.

"I'll tell you what, the European Union sounds so nice, so lovely, right? All the nice European little countries that get together," said Trump. "They don't take our cars. They don't take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price."

Politico noted that Leyen's maneuver to dodge the steep tariffs of 10% or more that Trump has threatened by promising to buy LNG is largely political theater granted the European Commission is virtually powerless when it comes to dictating European companies' purchases of gas.

"The EU doesn't buy LNG — there's a global LNG market and LNG buyers have their own contract," Laurent Ruseckas, executive director for gas markets at commodities giant S&P Global, told Politico. "It's certainly possible to do a memorandum of understanding to talk about increasing purchases but ultimately in the past that's been a way to put a political wrapper around something that was delivered by the market. And the EU is buying as much LNG currently as the market needs."

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Frenchman who saw through pollsters' failure and media's skew makes fortune betting on Trump



A mystery trader identifying himself only as Thèo secured an estimated $48 million in profits betting that the 45th president would be elected the 47th president.

The trader, a Frenchman with a financial services background who has been dubbed the "Trump whale," reportedly used four anonymous accounts — Theo4, Fredi9999, PrincessCaro and Michieon — on the crypto-based betting site Polymarket to bet on President Donald Trump to win the popular vote as well as most battleground states.

Thèo suspected that establishment pollsters and the mainstream media had overestimated support for Kamala Harris and once again underestimated Trump's support.

Thèo told Visegrád 24 prior to Election Day, "The polls are really different from the predictive odds in the predictive markets. It calculates something totally different. One is calculating what are the intentions of the people to vote. The other are bets made by real people with real money about who they believe the winner will be."

The Frenchman noted in August, he began to realize that "media outlets are making the same mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020 underestimating the Trump vote. Why? Because, again, it's underestimating the shy Trump vote effect."

The Princeton Election Consortium indicated, for example, in November 2016 that Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of beating Trump, projecting her to take 312 electoral votes. FiveThirtyEight, then Nate Silver's polling outfit, suggested that Clinton's had a 71.4% chance of winning. Polls conducted that year by the Washington Post, ABC News, Google Consumer Surveys, Ipsos, YouGov, Fox News, Selzer & Company, and other outfits were similarly way off the mark, all putting Clinton ahead by several points.

Thèo indicated that this time around, the New York Times/Siena College polls and others were making the same mistakes, noting that in one instance, a poll showing Harris ahead by 2 percentage points in North Carolina was actually "un-representative by 9.3 percentage points."

'Don't trust the mainstream media.'

Prior to Election Day, Thèo told a reporter at the Wall Street Journal who had taken an interest in the trader's enormous bets that RealClearPolitics polling averages showed Trump outdoing his swing-state polling numbers in the previous presidential election, which was particularly close.

Recognizing that the races would again be close in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and factoring in the "shy Trump voter effect" — which the mainstream polling outfits apparently neglected to account for — the trader realized the Republican had upwards of a 90% chance of winning the day and a 65% chance of winning the popular vote.

The Frenchman took the addition step of commissioning a major pollster to conduct surveys to measure the "neighbor effect" stateside. Thèo noted that while the shy voter effect undermined the reliability of normal polls, neighbor polls — where respondents are asked which candidates their neighbors would likely support — would provide a better indication of voter preferences.

Thèo told the Journal that the results "were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!"

"Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbor effect," he added.

Bloomberg indicated that Polymarket bets on which candidate would become the 47th president produced almost $3.7 billion in volume this cycle.

Polymarket released a statement Wednesday morning, noting, "Last night, Polymarket proved the wisdom of markets over the polls, the media, and the pundits. Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasted outcomes well ahead of all three, demonstrating the power of high volume, deeply liquid prediction markets like those pioneered by Polymarket."

The company later shared a screenshot of an Oct. 22 Time magazine headline that read, "Don't Trust the Political Prediction Markets," commenting, "Don't trust the mainstream media."

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Markets surge to record highs, dollar jumps following Trump victory



President Donald Trump promised to usher in the "golden age of America" in his victory speech early Wednesday morning. At the open of trading hours later, the Dow gained over 1,320 points (in excess of 3%) while the S&P 500 index increased by 1.9% and the Nasdaq rose by 2.2%.

CNN indicated that this is the first time the Dow has jumped over 1,000 points in a single day since November 2022.

While some analysts suspect the decisiveness of the win may have put some investors at ease, others figure Trump's policy proposals — especially those pertaining to deregulation and taxes — have investors excited.

Michael Block, COO at AgentSmyth, told CNN, "There is this huge perception of [a] business friendly, tax-friendly regime coming into place, especially with them winning the Senate."

'Business animal spirits could be rekindled once again.'

Republicans have secured a majority in the U.S. Senate and are poised to keep the House.

"Assuming the House goes Republican, we expect that a Red Sweep outcome will play out in a similar fashion to the 2016 playbook but to a lesser degree given a more mature economic backdrop and higher equity valuations," Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments told Bloomberg. "Business animal spirits could be rekindled once again from Trump's pro-business approach."

As it became clear Trump was going to win in a landslide, the price of Bitcoin rocketed from south of $70,000 to over $75,000 overnight, zigzagging around $74,400 Wednesday morning. This jump was energized by Trump's embrace of crypto on the campaign trail.

In July, Trump told crypto boosters at a Bitcoin conference in Tennessee that he would make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet."

Not only did the U.S. dollar rise against the euro, the peso, the Japanese yen, and the Chinese yuan in response to Trump's landslide win — the biggest rise since March 2020 — the New York Times indicated that yields on U.S. government bonds also climbed sharply. Treasury 10-year yields reportedly advanced 18 basis points to 4.45%.

While the American market was ostensibly made great again, European stocks took a tumble Wednesday afternoon. CNBC noted that the pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 0.68% by 4 p.m. London time.

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Biden signs 10-year defense pact with Ukraine, greasing its path to NATO membership



President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy struck a deal Thursday in Italy on the sidelines of the G7 summit, committing the United States to deepening "security and defense cooperation [with Ukraine] and collaborating closely with Ukraine's broad network of security partners" for the next ten years.

The White House characterized the pact, which further paves the eastern European nation's way toward membership in NATO, as a "powerful signal of our strong support for Ukraine now and into the future."

At a joint press conference with Zelenskyy, Biden said, "Our goal is to strengthen Ukraine's credible defense and deterrence capabilities for the long term."

While Biden stressed it "makes a lot of sense for Ukraine to be able to take out or combat what is going across that border," he did, however, rule out Ukraine expanding its use of American missiles in Russia.

"In terms of long-range weapons ... we have not changed our position on that," said Biden, who reiterated further that American troops would also not be committed to Ukraine's defense.

Although Biden's potential successor has expressed interest in a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war and in European powers shouldering more of the financial burden for their own defense, Zelenskyy expressed confidence that perceived popular support for Ukraine will translate into continued fidelity to the pact.

"If the people are with us, any leader will be with us in this struggle for freedom," said Zelenskyy.

As the pact is only between the Biden and Zelenskyy administrations and will not be ratified by Congress, the next president could tear up the pact upon securing the White House.

The agreement comes just days after the Biden administration lifted a long-standing ban on arming a controversial Ukrainian brigade founded and shaped by neo-Nazis and midway through a year in which Congress appropriated $61 billion for military and economic aide to Ukraine — $14 billion of which was for advanced weapon systems and defense equipment and $13.7 billion of which is so that Kiev can buy American defense systems.

Biden has also committed to help 'develop Ukraine's capabilities to counter Russian and any other propaganda and disinformation.'

The agreement also comes in the wake of the European parliamentary elections, in which several right-leaning parties critical of the EU's approach to the Russian war against Ukraine made significant gains and amid waning interest among eastern European countries such as Slovakia to continue supporting Kiev's defensive campaign.

Although apparently happy to defer much of the cost to the U.S., wealthy powers at the G7 committed to a $50 billion loan to Ukraine backed by confiscated Russian assets.

The pact states in its preamble that "the security of Ukraine is integral to the security of the Euro-Atlantic region," and it is necessary to "preserve and promote Ukraine’s sovereignty, democracy, and capacity to deter and respond to current and future external threats."

In addition to advancing "trade and investment ties," the pact will build on the existing security partnerships facilitated under the Strategic Defense Framework between the Pentagon and Ukraine's defense ministry in 2021.

This means more help with military training; increased industrial cooperation; continued joint planning "to confront threats"; help with the procurement of squadrons of modern fighter aircraft; and material and logistical assistance with the defense of Ukraine's sovereignty and borders.

Biden has also committed to help "develop Ukraine's capabilities to counter Russian and any other propaganda and disinformation." This assistance would ostensibly be extra to what the Biden administration is already shelling out to help Ukrainian outfits target individuals and entities believed to be unsympathetic or antipathetic.

Blaze News recently reported that the Biden State Department is funding a Ukrainian NGO that has compiled a list of American politicians, activists, and media outlets — including Blaze Media — who have allegedly shared "Russian disinformation" or made "anti-Ukrainian statements."

The pact links a "just end to the war" to Ukraine's maintenance of its internationally recognized borders and territorial waters; reaffirms "Ukraine's future is in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)"; and emphasizes the importance of using sanctions and export controls against Russia, which some critics say have pushed the Slavic nation further into the arms of communist China and have proven costly for Europe.

'NATO expansion has not improved American security.'

To execute this pact, the White House indicated the Biden administration will look to Congress to continue funding Ukraine "over the long term."

There are apparently 15 other countries with similar security pacts with Ukraine, including Germany, Britain, and France.

The response to the agreement has so far been mixed.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) suggested on X that Biden was "risking another US forever war."

"By supporting Ukraine's NATO membership, he commits future US servicemembers to Ukraine's conflicts," continued Paul. "It's time to put America 1st, seek diplomatic solutions, and protect our people and economy."

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) noted that "NATO expansion has not improved American security."

— (@)

Others emphasized the importance of helping Ukraine see its way through to victory.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated Thursday, "The outcome of Ukraine’s fight will set the trajectory for global security for decades. We must continue to stand up to Putin's aggression and atrocities. Let me be clear: Ukraine matters to the United States and to the entire world."

The State Department said the pact was "a historic show of support for Ukraine’s long-term security that furthers commitments made under the G7 Joint Declaration of Support to Ukraine in July 2023 and the President’s approval of the Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act this spring."

Zelenskyy suggested earlier this year that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the outset of the invasion, although the BBC indicated U.S. intelligence suggests the number is far higher. As of April, the BBC's Russian unit indicated over 50,000 Russian soldiers had been slain. Between the two countries, there have been hundreds of thousands more combatants injured in the fighting.

For two points of contrast: Pentagon data indicates that between Oct. 7, 2011, and Dec. 31, 2014, 2,354 American service members died during Operation Enduring Freedom, and 20,149 were wounded in action. Between March 2003 and August 2010, 4,431 American service members died in Operation Iraqi Freedom, and 31,994 were injured.

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