Trump’s Iran week: The hidden wins you didn’t hear about



The daily news cycle around President Trump moves at a pace that buries accomplishments most presidents would tout for weeks. Several developments in late February fit that pattern. The headlines fixated on Iran, but other wins piled up in the background.

On February 22, CNBC reported that the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99%, its lowest level since 2022. A year earlier, the rate sat at 6.89%. That drop matters because mortgage rates drive affordability. When rates fall, more families can buy a home, refinance, or move without swallowing a punishing monthly payment. Home ownership still anchors the American dream for millions of households, and lower rates expand access.

In Trump Time, one week can carry the weight of a season.

The news barely lingered there.

Last week, Trump delivered his State of the Union address and used it to draw a bright line between two governing priorities. He framed the choice in plain language: “The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” Republicans applauded. Democrats looked unsure how to respond, caught between the demands of their activist base and the public’s expectation that government first serve citizens.

A CNN poll afterward reported that 54% of respondents supported the president’s priorities and 64% reacted positively to the address. Trump notched another measurable win in a week already packed with news.

On Thursday, another development landed. Netflix dropped its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery. That retreat looked like a setback for a streaming giant that critics often associate with a “woke” programming agenda. It also reopened the field for Paramount and Skydance to pursue a deal involving Warner Bros. Discovery.

If corporate maneuvering eventually places CNN under new ownership more sympathetic to Trump, the political and media implications could prove significant. Even the possibility signals a shift in leverage and influence.

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Democrats, meanwhile, appeared to watch one of their own tactics rebound.

For years, many on the left and in legacy media downplayed Jeffrey Epstein’s world, treated the story as politically inconvenient, or framed it as tabloid excess. When Democrats and their allies tried to turn Epstein-related scrutiny into a weapon against Trump, the blowback reached prominent Democrats as well.

Reports circulated about possible testimony and renewed scrutiny for figures long treated as untouchable. Bill Clinton again faced questions about his proximity to Epstein and Epstein’s network. And, once again, the former president insisted: “I know what I did and, more importantly, what I didn’t do. I saw nothing, and I did nothing wrong.”

Then Iran swallowed the rest of the news.

As reports surfaced about a rare gathering of Iran’s senior leadership, Trump authorized a combined strike with Israel that killed more than 40 prominent Iranian figures. Iran has served as a major sponsor of terrorism for decades and has threatened the United States and Israel openly, with chants of “Death to America” and repeated vows to destroy Israel. The regime’s proxies and partners have fueled violence across the region and beyond.

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Trump framed the strikes as a turning point and spoke directly to the Iranian people afterward. He argued that past presidents refused to do what he did and urged Iranians to seize the moment. His message carried a theme he returns to often: American strength, applied decisively, can change the calculus abroad and open space for change at home in hostile regimes.

Democrats struggled to land on a coherent response. Many want to condemn the Iranian regime. Many also want to attack Trump for acting against it. That tension keeps surfacing in real time, especially when Trump moves quickly and forces the opposition to choose between moral clarity and partisan reflex.

Trump’s week ended with a dramatic shift in the U.S. posture toward Iran and the broader Middle East. At the same time, the mortgage story, the polling bump, and the corporate shake-ups showed how much else moved beneath the Iran headlines.

In Trump Time, one week can carry the weight of a season.

How the 30-year mortgage helped create a permanent housing bubble



You won’t hear many people object to President Trump’s executive order to ban corporate purchases of residential homes. The idea sounds like common sense. But it targets a minor symptom while leaving the real disease untouched — and in some respects, it risks making that disease worse.

Institutional home-buying already peaked during the COVID-era bubble and has receded since then. In most markets, corporate ownership represents a small share of total inventory. Even at its height, it never explained why housing costs exploded for everyone else. High prices created the opportunity for institutional buyers, not the other way around.

The goal should not be cheaper debt. It should be cheaper homes.

Government policy inflated the housing market. Institutional buyers simply responded.

During COVID, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates toward zero. Mortgage rates fell below 3%. At the same time, the Fed bought roughly $2.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and HUD expanded “affordable homeownership” programs that widened the pool of subsidized buyers. Those policies produced predictable results.

When the government offers 2.5% interest for 30 years — often paired with minimal down payments backed by the FHA — buyers flood the market. Sellers respond by raising prices. The bubble becomes a feature, not a bug.

Institutional buyers entered that environment because it looked like easy money. Higher home prices also pushed rents up, so developers built more homes for long-term rental. Both trends flowed from the same source: a government-shaped market that made housing unaffordable, then subsidized the unaffordability.

Trump now seems focused on the symptom — corporate buyers — while ignoring the machinery that inflated the market in the first place.

He has spent months fighting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to bring rates back down toward zero. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve still holds about $2.1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. Trump has also announced a plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase another $200 billion in MBS. The stated goal is to lower mortgage rates.

But the goal should not be cheaper debt. It should be cheaper homes.

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Artificially lowering rates props up prices and slows correction. Prices in many markets have begun to soften. That correction should continue. Policies designed to suppress rates will keep prices elevated and risk inflating the next bubble.

That brings us back to corporate home-buying. Even at the COVID peak, institutional buyers — defined as entities owning at least 100 single-family homes — owned about 3.1% of the housing stock. That number has since fallen to around 1%. Investors see the market turning, and they have started backing away.

So Trump’s corporate-purchase ban arrives late, targets a relatively small share of the market, and risks becoming cosmetic cover for policies that keep the bubble inflated.

If Trump wants to drive prices down and permanently realign housing with median incomes, he has to reverse the policies that inflated the bubble. That means attacking the structure, not the headline.

Get government out of the mortgage market. Trump’s next Federal Reserve chair must commit to unwinding the Fed’s mortgage-backed securities portfolio. That $2.1 trillion cushion keeps mortgage rates lower than the market would otherwise set. Those artificially low rates inflate home prices.

End universal “homeownership for everyone” policy. The federal government keeps subsidizing buyers who are not ready to buy. Those programs inject cash into housing demand that would not exist in a real market. The goal should align prices with income, not chase a utopian dream of universal ownership. After decades of subsidies, deductions, and federal credit support, the home ownership rate still sits around the mid-60% range.

Stop chasing near-zero interest rates. A 30-year loan at 2% sounds appealing until you realize what it does to prices. Cheap money bids up homes across the board. Buyers pay the price forever even as politicians brag about the “deal.” Trump should let the market set rates. Recent rate cuts have not restored normal home buying either. Sales remain weak because prices remain too high.

End the 30-year fixed mortgage. Instead of floating longer loans — 50 years? Madness! — the country should move in the opposite direction. Before the New Deal era, short-term mortgages, often three to seven years, dominated the market. Federal policy transformed that structure.

Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the National Housing Act of 1934, establishing the Federal Housing Authority. The FHA insured long-term, fully amortizing mortgages with fixed rates, low down payments, and standardized payment schedules. That system moved the market away from short-term balloon loans and laid the foundation for longer terms.

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Congress eventually authorized the 30-year mortgage in 1954. VA loans under the GI Bill and the expansion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac later built a secondary market that made long-term fixed-rate loans attractive to lenders.

Government insurance, guarantees, and liquidity support made 30-year fixed mortgages feasible, which is why they represent 80%-90% of U.S. mortgages today. Without those interventions, lenders would not carry that risk.

The larger point remains simple: Sellers can’t charge prices buyers can’t pay. Prices explode only when government subsidies and government-backed long-term debt expand what buyers can “afford” on paper.

Unwind the subsidies. Unwind the guarantees. Unwind the cheap-money machinery. Let incomes, not federal policy, set the ceiling.

Housing should function like other consumer markets, not be engineered by Washington. Prices should reflect what people earn.

That’s the fix. Everything else treats symptoms and pretends to solve the problem.

The rate cliff is real — and Washington created it



It’s never been more unaffordable to buy and finance a home in America. And yet, government officials seem confused about the cause, chasing “solutions” that will only make things worse. They want more building, lower rates, and more subsidies. But none of that fixes the core problem.

We don’t have a shortage of homes. We have an affordability crisis driven by government intervention — one that’s inflated yet another asset bubble. Housing, like education and health care, has been hijacked by easy money, fake pricing signals, and federal subsidies designed to mask structural rot.

You can’t paper over decades of distortion with another round of Fed intervention.

The solution isn’t more easy money. It’s pulling the plug on government policies that distort markets. Enough with near-zero interest rates. Enough with the Federal Reserve buying mortgage-backed securities. Enough with Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA inflating demand that the market can’t sustain.

Cause and effect

Remember the late ’90s? Mortgage rates sat between 7% and 8%. Nobody panicked or complained much about the cost of living. People bought homes. Prices were reasonable. Inflation was low because deficits were shrinking and money wasn’t being printed into oblivion.

Then came the dot-com crash, George W. Bush’s post-9/11 spending spree, and the Clinton-era “affordable housing” schemes coming due. The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s footprint expanded. The Fed, under Chairman Alan Greenspan, dropped rates to near zero — the same path Trump wants now — and we inflated the first major housing bubble of the 21st century.

From 2001 to 2006, Washington juiced the market at every turn. M2 money supply growth topped 10% and stayed above 8% into 2003. The Fed funds rate plummeted from 6.25% to 1%, where it stayed for a full year. Real rates were negative for two and a half years.

No surprise what followed: Real estate loans at commercial banks surged at a compound annual rate of 12.26%. Cheap money and inflated supply pushed prices through the roof. The result was a bubble built not on demand but distortion.

Then came the collapse.

And what did Washington do? Bailouts for big banks. Bailouts for Fannie and Freddie. Dodd-Frank. Obamacare. Trillions in new debt. The Fed held rates near zero for six more years, planting the seeds for the next wave of asset inflation — especially in housing.

Then came COVID.

The government printed $7 trillion and subsidized nearly everything. Rates dropped back near zero. The Fed bought trillions more in mortgage-backed securities. Freddie, Fannie, and the FHA expanded their subsidies even further. By 2021, we had the biggest housing bubble in American history.

Welcome to the rate cliff

Now, we’ve hit the wall. The Fed had to raise rates to fight inflation. That created a generational rate cliff. Sellers don’t want to give up their 2% and 3% mortgages. Buyers can’t afford homes at today’s prices — prices that are still artificially high thanks to 15 years of easy money and government meddling.

And yet, housing starts have held up decently. The problem isn’t inventory — it’s liquidity and affordability.

In June, existing home sales dropped to their slowest pace since 2009. But it’s not because no one’s selling. Redfin reports 500,000 more sellers than buyers — a 33.7% gap, the widest since 2005. Total inventory rose to 1.53 million units, up nearly 16% from last year. Vacancies have spiked 28% since the second quarter of 2022. New home supply has ballooned to 9.8 months.

RELATED: Government broke the housing market — only this will fix it

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In a real free market, prices would drop sharply. But when government, either directly or indirectly, backs 90% of the U.S. mortgage market, that’s not how it works. Subsidized mortgages and distorted demand keep prices frozen — even as sales crater.

Sellers want prices buyers can’t afford. According to the Atlanta Fed, a household now needs $124,150 in “qualified income” to afford the median home. But the median household income is just $79,223.

Lowering interest rates again won’t fix this. It’ll just stoke inflation and feed the next bubble. And with the Treasury dumping trillions in debt onto the market, 10-year yields — and therefore 30-year mortgage rates — aren’t coming down anytime soon.

Absent a 2008-level crash, housing prices aren’t dropping meaningfully. We’re stuck.

You want lower rates? Cut spending

If you want rates to fall, slash spending and debt. That’s how you bring prices down. You can’t paper over decades of distortion with another round of Fed intervention.

Live by Fed money printing, die by Fed money printing.

Government broke the housing market — only this will fix it



If you’re frustrated with being unable to buy a home today, you’re not alone. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, homeownership affordability has been near an all-time low since 2023. The deadly combination of both home prices and interest rates skyrocketing broke the housing market, but simply lowering interest rates today won’t fix it.

To understand why, it’s important to know what caused this housing affordability crisis. Over the last several years, the federal government spent trillions of dollars it didn’t have in the world’s largest-ever borrowing binge. The money came from the Federal Reserve, which created those trillions of dollars out of nothing, depressing interest rates.

The real solution is not to manipulate rates lower and spawn further inflation, but to get government out of the way so interest rates can come down naturally.

The predictable result was a rapid devaluation of the dollar, manifesting as 40-year-high inflation, followed by the fastest rise in interest rates in just as long to cool off the inflation.

Rates aren’t the problem

Not only did home prices become stratospherically high relative to incomes, but financing costs became prohibitively expensive. Consequently, during the four years of the Biden administration, the monthly mortgage payment doubled on a median-priced home.

For the housing market, this was a one-two punch that cratered affordability and consigned millions of Americans to renting for the foreseeable future.

The Fed’s artificially low interest rates helped cause the problem in the first place. Home prices rose not only because the dollar lost value (taking more dollars to buy the same home), but also because lower interest rates meant potential home buyers could borrow more and bid up the price of homes.

What’s most important to someone when considering buying a home is not the home’s price but the monthly mortgage payment. While the payment is clearly dependent on the whole price, interest rates are also a major factor. When those rates fell below 3%, people were willing to spend much more on the same home because the monthly payment didn’t change much.

As the months passed, however, and the bidding wars continued, prices just kept rising. Once interest rates returned to more normal levels, everything fell apart as monthly mortgage payments exploded. It now takes over two-thirds of the median household’s take-home pay to afford a median-priced home.

Historically, when interest rates rise, home prices fall, but that didn’t happen this time. So many people locked in home loans at interest rates below 4% — or even below 3% — that they can’t sell their homes today, because doing so would mean losing that interest rate and getting a new mortgage at 7%, 8%, or 9%.

The only way to make the math work is if homeowners sell at a huge premium, giving a massive down payment on their next home, minimizing the amount borrowed at a higher rate, and therefore preventing their monthly payment from skyrocketing. The large and fast increases in interest rates pushed home prices even higher instead of lower.

Get government out of the way

The temptation today is for the Fed to simply lower the federal funds rate (its benchmark interest rate), under the assumption that such a move will push down interest rates throughout the economy, including mortgages. Sadly, instead of fixing the broken housing market, it would likely have the opposite effect.

Last autumn, in a move that could only be described as blatant election interference, the federal funds rate was reduced when there was no empirical justification for doing so. But the move buoyed stock prices. Market participants saw through the charade and realized the artificially low rates would ultimately lead to more inflation, which prompted private market interest rates to rise.

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Lenders don’t like inflation because it reduces the value of the money being repaid in the future. To compensate, creditors demand a higher rate of return. That’s why the yield on Treasury debt at the end of last year jumped 100 basis points after the federal funds rate fell 100 basis points, demonstrating the Sisyphean nature of the problem.

Additionally, interest rates and home prices have recoupled. If interest rates fall one or even two percentage points, that will again prompt potential home buyers to borrow more, thereby bidding up home prices again. Unless rates drop substantially more, existing homeowners will remain trapped by the golden handcuffs of their 2% or 3% interest rates.

The real solution is not to manipulate rates lower and spawn further inflation, but to get government out of the way so those rates can come down naturally. If the government spent much less, then there would be less demand for borrowed money. Reducing demand in turn reduces the price, and the price for borrowed money is the interest rate.

Profligate government spending broke the housing market. Only fiscal restraint at the federal level will fix the problem.

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