Republicans take back Alaska's House seat, solidifying the GOP's slim majority



Republican candidate Nick Begich has officially unseated incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska's sole House seat on Wednesday, boosting the GOP's narrow majority in the chamber.

Begich won with 51.3% of the vote, while Peltola brought in 48.7% of the vote. Peltola first flipped the seat in 2022 after Alaska introduced ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot rather than choose between the Democratic and Republican candidates who won their respective primaries.

'The path ahead will not be built by one person or three people working for all of Alaska but by all Alaskans working together to build a future that works for all of us.'

Going into the 2024 election, there were two Republican candidates up against the Democratic incumbent: Begich and Nancy Dahlstrom. Republicans were concerned that two GOP candidates would split the vote as they did in 2022, so Dahlstrom dropped out in August to avoid becoming a spoiler candidate.

"The Ranked Choice Voting tabulation has been completed and has confirmed our win beyond any residual doubt," Begich said in a Wednesday post on X. "I am truly honored to have earned your trust and support."

"Alaska's potential is unmatched, but much work remains for Alaskans to fully realize that potential," Begich continued. "I am committed to fighting for our jobs and economy, protecting our unique way of life, and ensuring that our voices are heard loud and clear in Washington."

Republicans now hold 219 seats, while Democrats hold 213. Although Republicans have the advantage, their margin has been narrowed due to President-elect Donald Trump's recent nominations that have included three Republican congressmen.

"The path ahead will not be built by one person or three people working for all of Alaska but by all Alaskans working together to build a future that works for all of us," Peltola said in a Wednesday post on X.

"Nick, I'm rooting for you," Peltola continued. "Please don't forget when DC people keep telling you that you are one of three, you are actually one of more than seven hundred thousand Alaskans who are ready to fight for our state, myself included."

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Key pickup opportunities for Republicans to secure their House majority



Republicans will likely maintain their slim majority in the House, but several key races have not yet been called.

Republicans are just four seats away from the majority, currently holding 214 seats, while Democrats hold just 203 seats. In order for one party to win the majority, the party must hold at least 218 of the 435 House seats.

Although Democrats are leading 10 of the 18 uncalled races, Republicans are well on their way to maintaining their House majority.

California is the most likely path to victory for the GOP, with Republicans leading in four of the 10 uncalled congressional races. Republican incumbents John Duarte of California's 13th Congressional District, David Valadao of California's 22nd Congressional District, Ken Calvert of California's 41st Congressional District, and Michelle Steel of California's 45th Congressional District are all leading their Democratic challengers.

These four competitive California races would be enough to keep Republicans in the majority.

The GOP has another pickup opportunity in the neighboring state of Arizona. Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani of Arizona's 6th Congressional District is currently leading Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel. Ciscomani's is the only congressional race that has not yet been called in Arizona.

Up north, Republicans are guaranteed another seat in the race for Washington's 4th Congressional District. Unlike most other states, Washington has a ranked-choice system, which allows voters to rank their candidates in preferential order rather than having a two-party primary like most other races. As a result, constituents are voting between two Republican candidates, incumbent Dan Newhouse and challenger Jerrod Sessler.

Newhouse is currently ahead of Sessler, but no matter which way the race pans out, Republicans will have secured the seat.

Similar to Washington, Alaska also adopted the ranked-choice voting system, though notably, Alaska introduced a ballot measure to end ranked-choice voting, which is currently on track to pass in the state.

Of the three Alaskan candidates, Republican challenger Nick Begich is leading Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola and independent candidate John Wayne Howe in the race for Alaska's sole congressional seat.

While the race has not yet been called, Begich is leading Peltola by four points, making the longtime red state a likely layup for the GOP.

Republicans are leading a much tighter race out east in Iowa's 1st Congressional District. Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks is currently ahead of Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by just 0.2% with 99% of the votes counted. Miller-Meeks holds just a 1,200-vote advantage.

Although Democrats are leading 10 of the 18 uncalled races, Republicans are well on their way to maintaining their House majority.

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5 key House seats Republicans are likely to flip



While the Republicans' majority is increasingly narrow, there are currently five competitive blue seats that may help the GOP hold onto the House.

The seats of Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola of Alaska, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Jared Golden of Maine have all been ranked as toss-ups by Cook Political Report.

Alongside these toss-up ratings, polling also suggests these seats are within Republicans' reach going into November.

In 2022, Peltola is the first Democratic candidate to have been elected to Alaska's sole congressional seat in more than half a century after the state adopted a ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank their preferred candidates rather than a typical two-party primary system. As a result, Republican candidates Nick Begich and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin split the GOP vote, allowing Peltola to flip the seat blue for the first time since 1970.

Despite the ranked-choice system, Peltola is facing a challenge from just one Republican candidate, Nick Begich, after Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out to consolidate the GOP vote. Combined with Alaska's reliably red voting history, recent polls from the National Republican Congressional Committee put Peltola at an electoral disadvantage.

Peltola is also featured on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "frontline members" list consisting of the most competitive blue seats.

Peltola's fellow frontliner, Caraveo, is also at risk of losing re-election to her Republican challenger. While one September poll puts the Colorado Democrat at a narrow three-point edge, a recent poll from early October puts her in a dead heat with Republican challenger Gabe Evans. Colorado's 8th Congressional District is also perfectly split between Republicans and Democrats, according to Cook Political Report.

Caraveo won her seat in 2022 against Republican candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer by less than 1%.

Since Slotkin opted to run for Senate, Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel and Republican challenger Tom Barrett have gone head to head for the seat. Slotkin flipped the longtime red seat blue in 2022, making the +2 Republican district a potential layup. Polling is also trending in Republicans' favor, with Barrett ahead of Hertel by four to six points.

Slotkin secured her seat in Michigan's 7th Congressional District in 2022 by 5.4%.

Perez, who is also featured on the DCCC's list of vulnerable front-liners, is set to face off against Republican candidate Joe Kent for the second time. Although Perez managed to flip the seat in 2022, she is currently polling dead even against Kent in the +5 Republican district, which may reinstate a red streak in Washington's third congressional district.

Perez, who has refrained from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, defeated Kent in 2022 by less than 1% after former Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler retired.

Golden, who has served Maine's congressional district for three consecutive terms, is also facing a tight race against Republican candidate Austin Theriault. Despite being a +6 Republican district, Golden won his seat by a 1% margin in 2018 and just over 6% in 2020 and 2022.

Despite his historical electoral advantage, a recent poll shows Golden at a three-point deficit against Theriault.

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