To many Americans, Alberta may seem like a distant Canadian province. But the oil-rich western region increasingly resembles a northern version of America’s populist red states — deeply distrustful of liberal federal power, economically tied to energy production, and increasingly willing to challenge the legitimacy of national institutions.

The difference is that Alberta’s growing independence movement is no longer content merely to complain about Ottawa — it wants out.

'Who amongst us thought when we were growing up that one day we'd have the opportunity to create a new country?' Rath said. 'How much fun is this?'

Now, Alberta independence advocates are accusing Conservative Alberta Premier Danielle Smith of blocking a referendum on separation in order to maintain relations with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government in Ottawa.

Pipe dream

Jeff Rath, legal counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Project and one of the leading voices advocating Alberta independence, claims Smith is quietly delaying a provincial referendum on separation in hopes of securing federal support for a pipeline route through neighboring British Columbia.

Rath does not oppose pipelines themselves. In fact, many Alberta separatists increasingly argue that the province’s economic future lies in deeper integration with American energy markets rather than continued dependence on Ottawa and Eastern Canada.

Rath also questioned whether the proposed pipeline is even necessary, arguing that Alberta will soon have substantial additional export capacity through existing and expanding infrastructure connected to U.S. markets.

In his view, Smith is trading away referendum momentum for a politically compromised deal that still leaves Alberta subject to Ottawa’s climate and energy policies.

“She’s literally sold out everybody in Alberta for a completely unnecessary pipeline,” Rath said. Rath told Align that a source close to Smith informed him of what he described as a behind-the-scenes arrangement between the premier and Carney.

Slowing momentum

The dispute highlights growing tensions inside Alberta’s separatist movement, which has increasingly clashed with Smith despite her frequent criticism of Ottawa and the Liberal government. While Smith has positioned herself as a defender of Alberta’s autonomy within Canada, many independence advocates now accuse her of slowing momentum at a moment when they believe public support is surging.

The conflict intensified after Alberta Court of King’s Bench Justice Shaina Leonard questioned the legitimacy of an independence petition signed by more than 300,000 Albertans. Leonard ruled that Elections Alberta may have improperly assessed the petition because some indigenous bands oppose Alberta separation.

Leonard, who was appointed by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has since become a target of separatist frustration over what many in the movement view as judicial interference in a democratic process.

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Referendum on a referendum

But Rath insists that neither the courts nor Smith can prevent Albertans from voting on independence.

The lawyer — who has met several times with members of President Donald Trump’s administration — said he was astonished that Smith is now proposing what critics have described as a referendum on whether to hold a referendum.

Rath argues that Smith already possesses the legal authority to move forward immediately.

When asked by Align whether an independence referendum can proceed despite Leonard’s ruling, Rath replied: “One hundred percent."

Rath pointed to paragraph 76 of Leonard’s decision, which he says explicitly affirms the Alberta government’s authority under the province’s Referendum Act to place the question on the ballot without relying on the Citizen Initiative Act petition process.

“What’s going up to the Court of Appeal is whether or not ... there's a requirement for First Nations consultation or whether it's unconstitutional — not whether the question goes on the ballot at all,” Rath said.

Rath sharply criticized Leonard’s ruling, calling it political rather than legal.

“This is fundamentally a political decision and not a legal decision,” he told Align.

Gathering steam

He also argued that the ruling has backfired by energizing the independence movement rather than slowing it.

“People in Alberta are furious,” Rath said. “Even people that are sitting on the fence are telling me, ‘I was sitting on the fence until I see that all it takes is one liberal justice to tell me that I don't have a right to do something, and I'm done with this.’”

Rath said frustration with Canada’s judiciary is now fueling broader constitutional discussions inside the province, including calls for an elected judiciary similar to the American system.

The controversy, he argued, has transformed Alberta independence from a fringe political idea into a serious constitutional debate.

“This is probably good for another 5%,” Rath said, referring to support for separation.

Once in a generation

Despite the legal battle and political uncertainty, Rath described the movement in optimistic terms, framing Alberta independence as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

“Who amongst us thought when we were growing up that one day we'd have the opportunity to create a new country?” Rath said. “How much fun is this?”

Smith, meanwhile, remains in a politically precarious position. Although she has repeatedly said she opposes Alberta separation and would campaign against it in any referendum, many members of her governing United Conservative Party support giving voters the opportunity to decide the issue directly.

Even many Albertans who oppose separation still support holding a referendum, Rath said.

“100% of those people believe that Albertans are adults and should have the right to be able to answer this question."

Whether Smith can continue balancing Alberta nationalism with her federalist instincts may determine not only the future of her government but also the trajectory of a separatist movement that no longer appears willing to wait patiently for Ottawa to change course.