Are gas prices about to drop? What the UAE leaving OPEC means.



If you think this is just another oil headline, think again. This one hits your wallet directly, every time you start your car.

The United Arab Emirates, one of the most powerful players inside OPEC, is walking away from the cartel. That’s a huge change to the system that has controlled oil prices and, by extension, what Americans pay at the pump for more than half a century.

The UAE’s departure exposes long-standing tensions inside the group. Some countries have followed production limits; others have ignored them.

And for drivers already dealing with high gas prices, this matters more than anything coming out of Washington right now.

Market mover

For decades, OPEC has operated as a coordinated force, adjusting production to influence global oil prices. Less supply meant higher prices. More supply meant relief, but only when it suited the producers. It was never a true free market; it was controlled output designed to protect revenue.

Now one of the few countries that actually had the power to move markets is stepping away.

The UAE isn’t just another member. It is one of the rare producers with real spare capacity, the ability to quickly increase output and stabilize supply during disruptions. Alongside Saudi Arabia, it helped anchor OPEC’s influence. Take that away, and the cartel doesn’t just weaken; it loses control of the narrative.

So why should the average driver care?

Because this could be one of the first real signs that global oil pricing is shifting away from centralized control and back toward competition. And when competition increases, prices tend to come down.

Dire Strait?

But don’t expect that relief overnight.

Here’s the reality drivers are dealing with right now. Gas prices in the U.S. are already elevated, sitting above $4 per gallon in many areas. That’s not just about oil supply; it’s about geopolitics. Tensions tied to Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical oil shipping routes in the world, are driving volatility and keeping prices high.

That’s the immediate pressure on your fuel bill, not the UAE’s decision — at least not yet.

The UAE exit is a medium-term shift. It means the country is no longer bound by OPEC production quotas. It can pump more oil if it chooses, and it has made it clear it wants to expand output significantly. More oil supply should push prices lower, but only if that supply actually reaches the market.

Mehmet Yaren Bozgun/Anadolu/Getty Image

And that’s the catch drivers need to understand.

Volatile for a while

Oil prices don’t drop just because more production is possible. They drop when that oil is flowing freely, refined, and distributed. If geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt shipping lanes or production, the added supply won’t fully offset the pressure.

That’s why, in the short term, volatility is still the story.

So let’s answer the question every driver is asking: Will this lower gas prices? And when?

In the next one to two weeks, probably not. Prices will continue to react to global tensions more than anything else. But within two to six weeks, that’s when things could start to change. That’s typically how long it takes for shifts in crude oil prices to filter down to what you pay at the pump. If the UAE ramps up production and tensions ease even slightly, drivers could start seeing prices move down by late May into June.

We’re not talking about a sudden return to cheap gas, but a drop of 20 to 50 cents per gallon is realistic if conditions line up. For families commuting daily, running businesses, or planning summer travel, that kind of relief will help. And yes, this ties directly into the broader automotive landscape.

High fuel prices don’t just affect what you pay at the pump. They influence what people buy. When gas spikes, consumers start rethinking vehicle choices, holding off on larger SUVs, reconsidering trucks, or delaying purchases altogether. Automakers feel that shift immediately, especially as they try to balance EV investments with ongoing demand for gas-powered vehicles.

When prices ease, even slightly, it stabilizes that decision-making. It gives consumers more flexibility and helps normalize the market. That’s why this OPEC fracture isn’t just an energy story; it’s an automotive story.

RELATED: GM slams brakes on electric trucks as reality crashes the EV party

Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Priming the pump

Looking farther out, the bigger implication is what happens to OPEC itself.

The UAE’s departure exposes long-standing tensions inside the group. Some countries have followed production limits; others have ignored them. That imbalance has been building for years, and now it’s starting to break apart. When a cartel loses discipline, it loses its ability to control prices.

That’s good for drivers, but it comes with a trade-off.

Less coordination means more volatility. Prices could swing more sharply in response to global events. That’s not ideal for consumers or automakers trying to plan ahead, but it does reduce the ability of a centralized group to keep prices artificially elevated.

There’s also a strategic shift happening behind the scenes. The UAE wants flexibility, not restrictions. The country is investing in expanding production capacity and positioning itself to produce more oil, not less, in the years ahead. That aligns more with a competitive market than a controlled one.

For the United States, that could quietly become a win. More global supply, less cartel control, and increased competition all point toward lower energy costs over time. But again, timing is everything, and right now, geopolitical instability is still the dominant force.

So here’s the bottom line for drivers. The UAE just weakened one of the most powerful forces controlling global oil prices. That opens the door to lower gas prices and more competition. But in the short term, the same geopolitical risks that pushed prices higher are still in play.

If tensions ease and supply increases, you could see relief at the pump within weeks. If not, expect more of the same volatility that’s been hitting your wallet every time you fill up. Either way, this isn’t just another oil story. It’s a shift that will play out on American roads, in dealership showrooms, and, most importantly, at the pump.

The Crisis In The Strait Of Hormuz Is Worse Because Of Dems’ Disastrous Energy Policy

'If your energy supplies depend on a foreign choke point, that's a national security issue.'

The Biden administration resumes oil and gas leases on federal land but in a reduced capacity and with steeper fees



This past Friday, the Biden administration announced that it would resume granting lease sales for the drilling of oil and natural gas on federal lands.

However, as the Washington Examiner reported, the Biden administration intends to drastically decrease the amount of federal land available for drilling and plans to increase the royalty it charges companies to produce oil on federal lands.

In a recently released press release, the Department of the Interior said that it will make 144,000 acres of federal lands available for drilling. This is an 80% reduction in acreage that was originally designated for natural gas production. The department will also begin charging companies drilling royalties of 18.75% instead of 12.5%.

The release said, “The [Bureau of Land Management] will issue final environmental assessments and sale notices of upcoming oil and gas leases that reflect this strategic approach.”

“The lease sales will incorporate many of the recommendations in the Department’s report,” the release continued. “Including ensuring Tribal consultation and broad community input, reliance of the best available science including analysis of GHG emissions, and a first-ever increase in the royalty rate for new competitive leases to 18.75 percent, to ensure fair return for the American taxpayers and on par with rates charged by states and private landowners.”

It continued, “The BLM assessed potentially available and eligible acreage in Alabama, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming. It began analyzing 646 parcels on roughly 733,000 acres that had been previously nominated for leasing by energy companies. As a result of robust environmental review, engagement with Tribes and communities, and prioritizing the American people’s broad interests in public lands, the final sale notices will offer approximately 173 parcels on roughly 144,000 acres, an 80 percent reduction from the acreage originally nominated.”

This move by the Department of the Interior comes as the Biden administration begins to acknowledge the importance of increasing domestic energy production amid soaring energy prices.

Secretary of the Interior, Deb Haaland, called the department’s new plan an overdue “reset’ of the leasing program.

She said, “For too long, the federal oil and gas leasing programs have prioritized the wants of extractive industries above local communities, the natural environment, the impact on our air and water, the needs of Tribal Nations, and, moreover, other uses of our shared public lands.”'

In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western nations issued thoroughgoing sanctions on the Russian economy. The U.S. was quick to stop importing Russian oil, and since the Biden administration ended American energy independence, American energy prices drastically rose as there was suddenly less oil being imported.

Energy Sec. Granholm begs for companies to increase oil production after Biden admin denied that it would help gas prices



The Biden administration appeared to put out conflicting messages on gas prices when U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm begged oil companies to increase production in order to ease the price at the pump.

The statement came after several administration members denied that increasing domestic production was possible or that it would have any effect on gas prices.

“Right now, we need oil and gas production to rise to meet current demand,” Granholm told hundreds of energy executives at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas.

"That means you producing more right now, where and if you can," Granholm said to them. "In this moment of crisis, we need more supply."

She specifically tied the dire need to increase oil production in order to help American families struggling with the high price of gas.

"We have to responsibly increase short term supply where we can right now to stabilize the market and to minimize harm to American families," Granholm said.

That contrasted with a statement from President Joe Biden on Tuesday where he said gas prices were solely the fault of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"They're going to go up," he said to reporters about future gas prices. "Can't do much right now. Russia is responsible."

Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh made similar claims about Biden shutting down the Keystone Pipeline from Canada when he first entered office.

"Keystone has absolutely nothing to do with the current supply and demand in energy markets," Singh claimed on "Morning Joe" on MSNBC Wednesday.

"Keystone is a pipeline, it’s not an oil field. It doesn’t produce additional oil," he added. "Even if we drilled as much as we could, the price of oil is still set globally by the demand and supply conditions."

The same sentiment was also expressed by White House Director of the National Economic Council Brian Deese on CNBC.

"There is no amount of domestic production that we can do when we're dealing with a volatile global commodity where the price is set globally, there is no amount of domestic production we can do to reduce or eliminate our vulnerability as a country to that volatility," said Deese.

"The only way to do that is to the energy intensity of the economy overall, which means shifting to cleaner sources of energy," he added.

Granholm was previously criticized in November when she responded with laughter to a question about how she plans to increase oil production.

Here's Granholm's statement to the media:

Gas prices and fuel costs will likely rise after Russian oil ban, Biden warnswww.youtube.com

Biden is getting torched on social media for begging dictators to produce more oil after criticizing US oil production



President Joe Biden is seeking to solve the oil crisis in the U.S. by begging foreign dictators and despots to increase their territories'' oil production and many on social media are torching him for it.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that they would not be seeking to increase domestic oil production and instead insisted that the crisis meant they should depend more on renewable sources.

“It’s a reminder that real energy security comes from reducing our dependence on fossil fuels,” Psaki claimed. “The only way to protect U.S. over the long term is to become energy independent."

Oil prices have been skyrocketing since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Many in the U.S. are calling for the Biden administration to stop all oil imports from Russia while it continues to attack Ukrainian sovereignty.

Republicans and other critics of the administration criticized him on social media for seeking increased production from questionable foreign sources while seeking to shut down domestic producers of oil.

"It is wrong for the Biden Administration to beg for oil from Venezuela & legitimize Maduro’s communist regime during an official visit. The U.S. should hold Maduro accountable while increasing domestic energy production so we won’t need to rely on hostile regimes for energy," responded Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

"Apparently Biden thinks producing more of our own oil in America is bad for the climate but somehow producing more oil in #Venezuela is not," tweeted Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

"Gas is up 13% in just the past week. What will it take for Joe Biden to increase oil production in America?" replied Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).

"Gas wouldn’t be this expensive if Joe Biden opened up America’s oil pipelines," tweeted Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). "Anyone telling you otherwise is lying."

"Biden should be turning to AMERICAN energy producers for more oil and gas—not dictators in Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia," tweeted Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.).

"Joe Biden would rather get oil from socialists in Venezuela than from American workers in Texas," added Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas.)

"At this point, the Biden administration is actively considering incentivizing both Iranian oil and Venezuelan oil, but has thus far shown no interest in incentivizing *checks notes* American oil. Up is down. Down is up," said Newsweek opinion editor Josh Hammer.

While the administration is now blaming oil companies for the high price of gas and claiming their policies have not reduced production, Biden previously said that it would be necessary to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy.

Also on Monday, the stock market continued to collapse over fears due to inflation and the continuing invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Here's more about the rising gas prices:

Gas Tops $4 A Gallon As Fighting Between In Ukraine Continueswww.youtube.com

White House nixes idea of upping domestic oil production amid energy crisis



The White House on Sunday outright rejected the possibility of increasing domestic oil production to combat the ongoing energy crisis.

At the time of this reporting, crude oil prices have risen as high as $130 per barrel.

What are the details?

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Sunday argued against the idea of increasing domestic oil production.

“It’s a reminder that real energy security comes from reducing our dependence on fossil fuels,” Psaki said and then hit out at those pushing to increase domestic output.

She continued, "[D]omestic production has not insulated us from the price volatility of fossil fuels or the whims of those who control them, such as President Putin. Americans know that.”

She added that the only way to avoid spiking oil prices was to become dependent on other sources of energy, including wind and solar panels.

“The only way to protect U.S. over the long term is to become energy independent,” she insisted.

What else?

Last week, Psaki said that calls to enhance domestic oil production are a "misdiagnosis."

"The way that the president, President Biden, has approached sanctions is we want to take every step to maximize the impact and the consequences on President Putin while minimizing the impact on the American people and the global community," Psaki said.

She added that calls to lift restrictions on oil drilling on federal land and demands to reopen the Keystone Pipeline were nothing more than a "misdiagnosis" of a solution.

"The Keystone Pipeline was not processing oil through the system. That does not solve any problems," she insisted. "That's a misdiagnosis or maybe a misdiagnosis of what needs to happen. I would also note that on oil leases, what this actually justifies in President Biden's view is the fact that we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, on oil in general ... and we need to look at other ways of having energy in our country and others."

'That is hilarious': Energy Sec. Granholm laughs when asked what her plan is to boost US oil production



Americans have been feeling pain at the pump due to higher gas prices, but when Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm was asked what her plan is to boost U.S. oil production, she laughed at the question.

"That is hilarious. Would that I had the magic wand on this. As you know, of course, oil is a global market. It is controlled by a cartel. That cartel is called OPEC," she said, noting that OPEC on Thursday chose not to boost production further than what had already been planned.

Rather than ramping up output, OPEC+ is just planning to "rollover its August program to gradually increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day each month," according to CNBC.

Bloomberg's Tom Keene pressed the issue further by asking, "What is the Biden plan to jumpstart energy production across America?"

Granholm responded by discussing the need to transition toward clean energy, but acknowledged that this is "obviously a longer-term strategy."

"The Biden plan is to diversify and to make sure that we move in a direction of clean energy where we're not reliant upon cartels and we're not reliant upon geopolitical adversaries who may be creating chokepoints for our ability and our people to be able to access energy," she said.

Biden Is Looking at Possible SPR Release: Granholm www.youtube.com

Some Americans have attributed blame to the Biden administration for rising fuel costs.

While speaking to another interviewer on the same Bloomberg program, Granholm said, "We can't just produce oil for the United States. It is on a global market."

"There are 23 million acres of public lands — that includes offshore and onshore — where there are leases ... that are not being used right now by oil and gas companies," Granholm said.

"It is not the president's doing that is causing the oil and gas companies right now to decide to slow down," she claimed.

CNBC reported:

Asked by CNBC about the U.S.'s relationship with Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of OPEC, after the output decision, Granholm said: "In some places, we have strong relationships and in some places we wish our allies would move a little faster."

"The message is we need to increase supply at this moment so that people will not be hurt during the winter months," she told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick on Friday at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland.