3 Senate races that could flip the balance of power: 'This is a wake-up call'



With the 2026 primaries fast approaching, there are three U.S. Senate seats onlookers should keep an eye on.

Republicans are currently enjoying a supermajority after sweeping the 2024 elections, controlling the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate.

The freshman senator narrowly won his seat in 2020 by just one point.

After November, Republicans flipped four seats: Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Montana. These victories flipped the Senate and put Republicans in a comfortable 53-seat majority while Democrats fell back to just 47 seats.

Although the GOP has a healthy majority, there are some more potential pick-up opportunities — and losses — for Republicans going into next year's primaries.

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One of the most contentious Senate races will be for Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff's seat in Georgia. Several prominent challengers have emerged in recent months, most notably with Republican Rep. Mike Collins throwing his hat in the race back in July. Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has also been floated as a potential candidate, but she has not formally moved to run for the seat.

The freshman senator narrowly won his seat in 2020 by just one point against Republican incumbent Sen. David Perdue. Given this razor-thin margin, Republicans have set their sights on taking back Ossoff's seat, and early polling suggests it's within reach.

The Cook Political Report currently rates Ossoff's seat as a toss-up, and some polls mirror this rating. In a hypothetical race between Ossoff and Collins, the Democratic incumbent has polled with an average three-point advantage, according to RealClearPolitics. Another recent poll shows Collins trailing Ossoff by just one point, according to findings from TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics.

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Another pick-up opportunity for Republicans emerged in Michigan after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement in January. Several Democratic candidates, like Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, have since launched their own campaign bids, but the future nominee will inevitably have to put up a fight against Republican challengers.

Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is considered the frontrunner among the GOP candidates in the Michigan Senate race. Rogers previously ran and narrowly lost against Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024, but he has since relaunched his Senate campaign with the hopes of flipping the swing-state seat.

Slotkin managed to defeat Rogers by just 0.3% in November, signaling the support behind the Republican challenger. Earlier in the year, Rogers was polling several points ahead of his Democratic counterparts, and Cook Political Report has rated the Senate seat a toss-up.

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Although Republicans are poised to potentially flip some seats, there may be some warning signs in the Midwest.

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa) reportedly will not seek re-election in 2026, leaving a vacancy in the deep-red state. The Cook Political Report has rated the seat as leaning Republican, and the GOP has maintained a prominent presence in Iowa at both the local and national level.

Despite the success Republicans have enjoyed in the Hawkeye State, Democrats have begun to secure their own electoral victories. Most recently, Democrat Catelin Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch for an open state Senate seat, flipping the GOP's supermajority for the first time in three years.

Steve Deace, a native Iowan and host of "The Steve Deace Show" on BlazeTV, told Blaze News that this swing in favor of Democrats is taking place because Iowans are not energized by any Republican candidates they have to choose from.

"There are danger signs, because if it can happen in Woodbury County, Iowa, this can happen anywhere in America," Deace said.

"Our people are just not motivated, by and large, to vote for the Republican Party brand as a brand anymore. So you’ve got to prove to them you’re worth their time and effort for them to show up, and I think that this is a wake-up call for the next midterm."

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If red states can’t deliver DOGE promises, what can they deliver?



The DOGE revolution has identified federal waste, forced Washington politicians to rethink their spending habits, and exposed the decades-long crusade by Democrats to funnel taxpayer money into activism. In a state like North Dakota — a deep-red stronghold — you’d expect Republicans to seize November’s America First mandate and gut bloated budgets.

Think again. Too many unprincipled legislators are choking on the swamp’s fumes, betraying the voters who rejected the status quo. It’s time to call them out.

Politicians care more about re-election and climbing the ladder than they do about your wallet. They’ll dodge tough cuts to keep their seats, leaving taxpayers to foot the bill.

North Dakota’s Legislative Task Force on Government Efficiency — a state-level DOGE — was established by House Bill 1442 to tackle the state’s $20.3 billion 2025-27 budget. The mission: Slash waste, end duplication, and put taxpayers first.

For fiscal conservatives, it looked like a dream come true. But after its first meeting July 30, conservatives are sounding the alarm. This committee is packed with spendaholics who will keep the gravy train rolling for as long as they can.

If we want real cuts, we need to stop coddling politicians and start fighting in Republican primaries.

Some get it; some don’t

Credit where it’s due: the leadership is solid. Chairman Rep. Nathan Toman (R-Mandan) is a budget hawk. Vice Chairman Sen. Chuck Walen (R-New Town) has a good record with his conservative base. Both men understand that North Dakota’s budget bloat calls for a chainsaw, not a Band-Aid.

But their grit is drowned out by a committee built to fail — thanks to GOP leaders afraid of losing votes by cutting unnecessary funds. Legislative Management appointed Senate Minority Leader Kathy Hogan (D-Fargo), a Democrat who has never met a spending bill she didn’t love, especially in human services and health care. Her role is to protect the status quo, not shrink it.

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Then there are Republican Reps. Glenn Bosch and Robin Weisz — appropriations loyalists who rubber-stamped 99% of the state budget. They are not reformers. Expecting them to cut waste is like asking a fox to guard the henhouse.

State problem, national roots

This isn’t just North Dakota’s mess — it’s politics everywhere. Red-state Republicans talk tough about fiscal discipline but crumble when the time comes to act. Why? Cutting spending risks votes, dries up PAC money for re-election, and alienates lobbyists.

It’s why North Dakota GOP leaders play nice with Hogan. It’s why Bosch and Weisz keep the spending spigot open. And it’s why our $36.2 trillion national debt keeps climbing.

Politicians care more about re-election and climbing the ladder than they do about your wallet. They’ll dodge tough cuts to keep their seats, leaving taxpayers to foot the bill.

The only fix: Primaries

The DOGE is a great idea. But across red states, task forces like North Dakota's stall when Republicans fear backlash more than they fear waste. Without legislators willing to fight, this will become another powerless committee generating reports nobody reads.

The fix? Get serious in Republican primaries.

In North Dakota, Citizens Alliance is backing challengers to big spenders like Bosch, Weisz, and their allies. In Pennsylvania, the group has added more than 55,000 GOP voters — 250 per day — because primaries are the contact sport that scares RINOs straight. In Idaho, Citizens Alliance helped oust Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Winder in 2024 and backs more than 40 lawmakers with proven conservative records.

North Dakota needs that same fire if it wants the state task force on government efficiency to roar instead of roll over. Republicans who dodge the DOGE mandate aren’t just failing — they’re betraying voters who demanded lasting reform. If they can’t bring a bulldozer to budget bloat, they don’t belong in leadership.

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Pennsylvania Election Officials Have Never Worked So Hard To Hide The Work They’re Not Doing

[rebelmouse-proxy-image https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-7-9-24-at-11.15 AM-1200x675.jpg crop_info="%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-7-9-24-at-11.15%5Cu202fAM-1200x675.jpg%22%7D" expand=1]It's time for the Pennsylvania secretary of state to realize that election administration requires more than empty talking points.

Dissatisfaction in the Democratic and GOP ranks? Some voters reject Trump and Biden in New Mexico presidential primaries



While President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are each already the presumptive 2024 presidential nominees for their respective political parties, some voters are still rejecting them in presidential primaries.

While results are still rolling in, according to the results so far in the New Mexico Republican presidential primary, more than 10% of voters cast their ballot for someone other than Trump. While Trump has earned more than 69,000 votes, more than 7,000 voted for former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, and more than 2,000 voted uncommitted.

'New Mexico has a closed primary.'

Haley, who dropped out earlier this year, has said that she will vote for Trump. Trump, who has repeatedly referred to Haley as "Birdbrain" in the past, described her as a "very capable person" last month after she publicly said that she planned to vote for him.

According to the results being reported so far, Biden earned more than 95,000 votes in the New Mexico Democratic presidential primary, while more than 11,000 voted uncommitted, and more than 7,000 voted for Marianne Williamson.

"New Mexico has a closed primary, so only those registered in a major political party may participate in the primary election," according to sos.nm.gov.

Biden and Trump are slated to debate later this month for the first time during the 2024 election cycle. The event, which will be moderated by CNN's Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, will take place in Georgia.

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Biden notches lackluster victory in Kentucky Democratic presidential primary



While President Joe Biden has already been the presumptive 2024 Democratic presidential nominee for more than two months, the incumbent clinched fewer than three quarters of the vote in the Kentucky Democratic presidential primary.

Based on the results reported so far, while Biden earned over 131,000 votes, more than 32,000 people voted uncommitted while more than 11,000 voted for Marianne Williamson, and more than 8,000 voted for Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who is no longer running.

Kentucky has been a reliably red state in presidential contests for two decades.

"Kentucky conducts closed primaries. Under Kentucky law, all persons who want to vote in the Democratic Party's or Republican Party's Primary Election must have changed their party affiliation by December 31 of the year prior to the next Primary Election," according to vrsws.sos.ky.gov.

Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, earned the bulk of the vote in the Kentucky Republican presidential primary.

But while the results currently indicate that Trump earned more than 214,000 votes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley — who dropped out of the primary earlier this year — earned more than 16,000 votes while more than 8,000 people voted uncommitted, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other former GOP presidential primary candidates also received some votes.

Kentucky has been a reliably red state in presidential contests for two decades, going the Republican candidate in every election from 2000 through 2020.

Incumbent GOP Rep. Thomas Massie, who has been in office for more than a decade, easily won his primary in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District.

"Tonight's victory is a referendum on thousands of independent votes I have cast in Washington DC on behalf of Kentucky's 4th District," he said in a statement. "I look forward to continuing our fight for personal liberty, economic freedom, fiscal responsibility, and Constitutionally limited government."

Massie had joined GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia in advocating to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson from the speakership, but the effort ultimately failed as many Republicans and Democrats voted to table Greene's motion to vacate.

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Larry Hogan, Jim Justice win Republican US Senate primaries



Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, an outspoken critic of former President Donald Trump, easily won Maryland's Republican U.S. Senate primary on Tuesday while current West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice easily won the Republican U.S. Senate primary in his state.

Hogan has never voted for Trump. In 2016, he wrote in his father, Larry Hogan Sr. Then, in 2020, he wrote in the late President Ronald Reagan. And during this cycle, Hogan has said that he will not vote for Trump or President Joe Biden.

Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland is not seeking re-election. Hogan, who served as governor from early 2015 through early 2023, is aiming to fill that seat.

'Big Jim will be a Great UNITED STATES SENATOR, and has my Complete & Total Endorsement.'

Justice has served as West Virginia governor since early 2017. He was elected as a Democrat in 2016 but announced in 2017 that he was switching his registration to Republican.

The Democrat-turned-Republican governor defeated U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney of West Virginia and others in the Senate primary.

Trump had endorsed Justice last year, declaring in a post on Truth Social, "Big Jim will be a Great UNITED STATES SENATOR, and has my Complete & Total Endorsement."

Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia is not seeking re-election, so Justice will be aiming to win that seat.

While Trump is the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the primary more than two months ago, has been earning thousands of votes in Republican presidential primaries.

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Trump’s Super Tuesday Triumph Is ‘Ultimate Revenge’ For Hounded Former President

[rebelmouse-proxy-image https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Screenshot-2024-03-06-at-6.45.11 AM-1200x675.png crop_info="%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Screenshot-2024-03-06-at-6.45.11%5Cu202fAM-1200x675.png%22%7D" expand=1]Trump gobbled up victory after victory, including in Colorado where Democrats are licking their fresh wounds from Monday’s high court ruling.

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