CNN analyst pours cold water on Democrats' dream of a political takeover in November



Pollsters and prediction markets are prophesying overwhelming Democratic success in the midterm election, which is now seven weeks away. CNN admitted in a recent analysis, however, that those hoping for a blue tidal wave might be left greatly disappointed in November.

Doom and gloom for the GOP

Polymarket presently suggests that Democrats have a 62% chance of taking the U.S. Senate and a 92% chance of taking the House. Kalshi similarly forecasts Democrats taking over the House and Senate.

'It’s going to be close.'

According to the Economist's latest midterm forecast, Democrats have a 93% chance of flipping the House and securing a 238-197 majority, and a 59% chance of taking the Senate.

The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats enjoying an eight-point edge on the generic ballot.

A recent NBC News poll found that while the Democratic Party is viewed more negatively than both President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, 50% of respondents favored Democratic control of Congress.

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Pollster Nate Silver argued on Sunday that the idea of the Senate as a "toss-up" is "misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump."

Blue disappointment?

In light of recent polling, the average price of gasoline sitting at an estimated $4.44 per gallon, and the sense that the midterm vote serves as a referendum on Trump's policies, hope is mounting on the left that a blue wave will wash away the Republican trifecta in Washington.

That hope may, however, be unfounded.

CNN political analyst Ronald Brownstein suggested just over a week ago that Democrats might not be in a position to exploit the president's waning public approval, Americans' economic woes, and growing political discontent.

In addition to noting that many Democratic candidates are not attracting the numbers of voters who disapproved of Trump in 2018 and 2020, Brownstein wrote that despite disenchantment among some voters on the right, few appear willing to turn coat.

"The share of non-MAGA Republicans who say they are still voting for Republicans this fall is about 20 points higher than the portion who approve of Trump’s performance," Brownstein wrote, citing GOP pollster Micah Roberts' analysis of CNBC survey data.

"There are a lot of people who may think, 'I don’t like Trump but ... I don't agree with the policies of the other party and where they would take us,'" said Roberts.

While Republican voters might not cast votes for Democratic candidates, Brownstein noted that the GOP still faces the possibility that disenchanted Republican voters might decide not to vote at all — a big problem given the enthusiasm among likely Democratic voters.

Voter enthusiasm might threaten Republicans' hold on power; however, the GOP's redistricting efforts have placed breakers before any blue wave.

After all, far fewer House seats are competitive now than were in 2018, and 13 House Democrats must now defend districts where Trump netted at least five points more than his share of the national vote, said Brownstein.

The CNN analyst cast greater doubt on Democrats' senatorial ambitions, noting that "of the Republican-held seats Democrats are most seriously contesting, Maine is the only one in a state that supported Harris; North Carolina is the sole other state on the Senate map where Harris even came close. Trump prevailed by double digits in every other state whose Senate seat Democrats are targeting."

Thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court's June ruling in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, the GOP — not similarly hard up for cash like the Democrats — also enjoys a financial advantage Brownstein reckons could be wielded to limit Democratic gains.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson told the New York Post earlier this month that instead of a blue or red wave this November, there will be "30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys."

"It’s just a handful of races, but every one of them will be decided by a few thousand votes. It’s going to be close," added Hudson.

The Cook Political Report projects that the GOP and the Democratic Party are set to win 208 and 205 House seats, respectively, and marked 21 seats as toss-ups.

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GOP civil war over race ignites after Republican posts University of Texas crowd photo



A Republican running for a statewide race in Texas has lit a firestorm on the right after noting the racial demographics of the student section at the University of Texas football game over the weekend.

On Saturday night, the Texas Longhorns hosted the Ohio State Buckeyes for an early-season marquee showdown between two top-five teams. While the Buckeyes led most of the game, the Longhorns stormed back in the fourth quarter and won, 24-23.

'Texans didn’t ask for their state to become a playground for the third world.'

As might be expected, the hometown Texas crowd was ecstatic, and one photo in particular seemed to capture the exuberance of the UT student section.

Only not everyone is celebrating it.

On Sunday morning, Bo French, a Republican running for Texas railroad commissioner, shared the photo of non-white UT students on X and remarked, "Like body-cams exposed criminals, social media is exposing how many Americans have been displaced by foreigners. It’s everywhere and far worse than any of us could imagine."

French was swiftly inundated with condemnation by many other X users, including prominent voices on the right.

Outgoing Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) replied, "This is the Republican nominee for statewide office. Are other Republican elected officials going to condemn the intolerance and racism, or look the other way while it becomes normalized. This is how great political parties self-destruct. Sad."

Texas state Rep. Lacey Hull said, "Please delete this. This post breaks my heart. I see college kids cheering on their football team. I see Texans."

Former Trump Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin commented, "This is gross. Touch grass."

Democrat U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico joined in, calling French's post "blatant racism" and adding, "Racism has no place in Texas."

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While accusations of racism abounded, French also has plenty of supporters who argue that native-born Americans have been unfairly edged out of public universities like UT-Austin by foreign-born students.

BlazeTV host Auron MacIntyre quipped, "The Texas GOP is furious that Bo noticed these cowards are selling the state to foreign interests and replacing the population with Indians."

BlazeTV host John Doyle called French a "patriot," slammed Republicans for echoing Democrat talking points about "racism," and suggested that the GOP cannot survive without directly appealing to white voters:

As a matter of simple arithmetic, the Party will be destroyed when it ceases to win elections because it cannot get the votes to win. 85% of all votes cast for the Republican Party come from white Americans. Since the historic American electorate has been overwhelmingly white, it squares that the people most interested in the conservation of America would be white.

"Texans didn’t ask for their state to become a playground for the third world," he added.

According to Kalshi, on Sunday, Democrat candidate Jon Rosenthal briefly overtook French in the betting odds for the Texas railroad commissioner race, but within a couple of hours, French had retaken the lead.

French does not appear to be backing down from his comments.

By Sunday afternoon, he tweeted: "Generations of Texans have invested billions of dollars into UT. Today it is filled with foreign nationals and Leftists who boo Ted Cruz. John Cornyn says we should accept decline. The voters I talk to want to return our institutions to serving the interests of citizens."

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One year after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Steve Deace says the void remains: 'Felt like losing a brother'



A year after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, BlazeTV host Steve Deace is still struggling to process the loss of his friend — and the spiritual warfare that's begun escalating in his absence.

“It is still hard to believe that Charlie is gone. I still can’t believe that this really happened,” Deace says. “It’s still kind of surreal to me. Despite how many tears I’ve shed over the last year, more than I can count, more often than I can count.”

“Felt like losing a little brother to me. Just one that was more talented and better looking. But the other reason I’ve shed so many tears over the last year for this, and I mean there have been moments where I have just sobbed, it’s because I didn’t just lose a friend and a brother,” he continues.

“I understand [what] the church in our country lost with Charlie as well,” he adds, “It is, folks, it’s a gaping void that may never be filled.”


And this “dysfunction” plaguing the Republican Party, Deace explains, is happening “because Charlie’s not here.”

“And I’ve talked about this before, how much behind the scenes Charlie was keeping at bay, holding at bay,” he says.

“And a lot of the instigation and impetus for what we’ve seen, which is the stuff out of church history books, out of the Bible, just open spiritual warfare breaking out into the natural world, into the seeing realm, the trigger for a lot of it was his assassination,” he continues.

“If you were here,” he adds, addressing his old friend, “this would not be happening at the rate that it is, if at all. And I think it’s further confirmation of the apostolic calling on Charlie’s life, his martyring, and its aftermath.”

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'Relieved of command': Republican candidate tells lying Democrats where to go



One Republican congressional candidate has told Democrats where to go after they failed to support working American families.

Laurie Buckhout didn’t mince words as she left a stark message on the stage at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas Thursday: Every Democrat who voted to raise taxes on working families has to go.

‘This November, every Democrat who voted to raise taxes on working families deserves … to be relieved of command.’

Buckhout, who is running for the 1st Congressional District of North Carolina, is not an incumbent looking to maintain her seat in the House. She’s fighting against the current elected Democrat, whom she nicknamed “Do-Nothing Don Davis.”

That nickname isn’t completely accurate, even in Buckhout's estimation. Davis did something, all right, she said, but it was in opposition to the American people.

When the Working Families Tax Cuts Act was up for a vote in July 2025 as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Davis and the rest of the Democrats attempted to block it. They were unsuccessful.

But it hasn't sat well with Buckhout that Davis and other Democrats have tried to "take credit" for certain aspects of the bill nevertheless.

She claimed in her speech:

Democrats clearly have a playbook in Washington — block it in D.C., and then take credit for it back home. Vote no, then show up with the ribbon-cutting. In the Army, if you fail to keep your promises and not stand by your people, you get relieved of command. So this November, every Democrat who voted to raise taxes on working families deserves exactly that — to be relieved of command.

RELATED: Night 2 Republican Midterm Convention

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Buckhout concluded with a call to action:

I'm a soldier. I'm a businesswoman who made payroll. I'm a fighter who keeps her word. And the road to holding this majority runs through districts like mine. So stand with me. Fight with me. Let's retire every Democrat who voted against your paycheck, and let's finish the job.

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Stu's Midterm Market WARNING as GOP Faces Troubling Numbers
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Stu's Midterm Market WARNING as GOP Faces Troubling Numbers

Ready for prime time: GOP makes play to keep 2 toss-up seats red



Michigan congressional candidate Mike Bouchard has been given a prime-time speaking slot at the 2026 Republican midterm convention Wednesday, a sign that the Republican Party is making moves to keep control of Congress come January.

For the appearance, Bouchard has been paired with former NFL placekicker Jay Feely, who is running for Congress in Arizona, which voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 but went blue in 2016 and 2020.

'Mike’s prime-time speaking spot reflects what Republicans nationally already recognize: Michigan’s 10th District ... could help determine control of the House.'

Bouchard and Feely are among just a handful of not-yet-elected candidates lined up to speak at the Dallas convention Wednesday, and their scheduled time slot of between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. Central Time suggests that the party wants the nation to see their faces and hear their message.

Trump has already endorsed both men.

Bouchard, 32, is a Michigan Army National Guard captain who is gunning to represent Michigan's 10th Congressional District. Rep. John James (R-Mich.) has held the seat for the past four years.

Like the state of Michigan, the 10th District is about as purple as it gets. Rep. James, who is now running for governor, snuck past his Democratic opponent in 2022 by just 1,600 votes.

RELATED: An insider look at one of the toughest congressional races in the country

SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

All polling suggests another tight race in 2026. On August 25, the Cook Political Report shifted the race for the 10th Congressional District from lean Republican to a toss-up, and Kalshi currently has Democrat Christina Hines as the clear betting favorite.

"Mike’s prime-time speaking spot reflects what Republicans nationally already recognize: Michigan’s 10th District is one of the most competitive congressional races in the country and could help determine control of the House. The race was recently moved from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, and both parties understand the stakes," Jon Shiner, Bouchard's communications director, told Blaze News.

"Mike’s background and service make him uniquely qualified to fight for Americans and the voters of this district. His message tonight will be of lowering costs, securing our communities, bringing manufacturing jobs home, and defeating the Democrats’ increasingly socialist agenda."

Feely, 50, is also hoping to keep a decidedly purple district red. Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) has represented the 1st Congressional District of Arizona for the past two terms, but he won in 2022 by less than 1% of the vote.

Kalshi is similarly bearish on Feely's chances.

The GOP will need to hold onto every seat it can in November to maintain control after the midterms. Republicans currently enjoy just a four-seat majority in the House, 218 to 214, and generic congressional polling shows Democrats with a clear edge.

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The Stay-At-Home Parent Debate Is GDP First Vs. America First​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Conservatives have to make the American dream possible again, and letting moms and dads raise their own kids is a good place to start.

Republican arrested for allegedly telling campaign manager to PLANT DRUGS on primary opponent



The Republican Party of Missouri is calling on a state candidate to step down after he was arrested for allegedly trying to plant drugs on an opponent.

37-year-old Thomas Christopher Ross was arrested on Wednesday on a federal charge of conspiring to distribute a controlled substance.

Ross allegedly told the manager that he could anonymously tip off the police about the drugs planted in Secker's car.

Ross had allegedly told his campaign manager to plant cocaine and Adderall in the car or purse of his primary opponent, Louise Secker, who is also a Republican.

Ross defeated Secker in the Republican primary for Missouri House District 161, representing Joplin, but his campaign manager contacted police about the alleged drug plot.

Police say they tested a bag of cocaine and an Adderall pill that the unidentified campaign manager brought to them, and they confirmed both to be real.

The informant also provided police with text messages allegedly from Ross detailing the planting plot as far back as May, according to the complaint.

"I was hoping we could make it happen before THIS Thursday...which would be extreme egg on the face," read part of a May 31 text attributed to Ross by prosecutors.

Police contacted the Federal Bureau of Investigation, which provided a covert recorder so that the manager could obtain audio evidence from a July 31 meeting with Ross.

Ross allegedly told the manager that he could anonymously tip off the police about the drugs planted in Secker's car.

"If you can pull it off...pull it off," Ross allegedly told him.

Ross won the primary by fewer than 35 votes and would face Democrat candidate Aaron Metzger in the general election, if he resists calls to step down from the campaign.

He was booked into the Joplin Municipal Jail but has not made a plea yet in the case.

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Missouri Republican Party Chairman Peter Kinder called on Ross to drop out.

He added that the "people of Southwest Missouri deserve nothing less than leadership they can trust."

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You didn’t build that, Mr. Obama



Barack Obama once delivered the line Republicans never let him forget: “You didn’t build that.”

Today, the Democratic Party could say something similar to him. Barack Obama didn’t build Barack Obama alone.

The transformation Obama promised in 2008 is still under way, and he is content to let others finish it.

The talent, intelligence, and ambition were his. But the stage belonged to the Democratic Party. Its donors supplied the money, its convention supplied the audience, and its voters supplied the office that transformed a little-known Illinois politician into a global figure.

Now the institution that helped build Obama is struggling to decide what it believes.

Obama turned 65 this month. He is four years younger than Donald Trump was when Trump descended the escalator and began remaking the Republican Party.

Whatever one thinks of Trump, the Republican Party did not build him. He arrived with his own fortune, celebrity, audience, and brand, then captured the party despite the resistance of much of its establishment.

Obama’s path was nearly the reverse. In 2000, he couldn’t even obtain a floor credential at the Democratic National Convention. Four years later, Democrats put him behind the convention lectern. Four years after that, he was their nominee for president.

The Democratic Party didn’t merely nominate Barack Obama. It introduced him to America.

For more than a decade, opposition to Trump supplied Democrats with something resembling a governing philosophy. Rage generated money, turnout, and unity.

But rage is fuel, not a destination. And Democrats are discovering that when Trump is removed from the sentence, they have difficulty completing it.

The party’s ascendant left has now captured Michigan’s Democratic Senate nomination through Abdul El-Sayed, backed by Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Hasan Piker. After El-Sayed’s victory, Obama called him for what the candidate described as a “really warm” conversation.

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Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

That call raises a question Obama has so far avoided: Does the party’s left represent an unruly faction, or is it becoming the party’s center of gravity?

Democrats talk endlessly about the virtues of a big tent. But a big tent without a center pole is just a tarp.

Obama remains the one Democrat with enough stature to supply that center.

He has not disappeared. He endorses candidates, gives speeches, and meets privately with lawmakers. Those appearances may help individual candidates. They do not provide direction for a party that increasingly seems unsure where it wants to go.

Obama once possessed the power to name a destination. “Hope and change” invited millions of Americans to imagine a country beyond the politics they knew.

Where is he asking his party to go now?

He could tell Democrats what liberalism must preserve, what progressivism must not replace, and what conduct the party will not tolerate.

Unless, of course, the ascendant left is the destination.

What are Democrats for when they are not against Donald Trump?

Endorsing candidates spends celebrity. Leadership spends political capital.

Democrats describe Trump as an existential threat who may destroy American democracy. Yet Obama confines himself largely to endorsements, private conversations, and measured speeches.

Either the danger is as grave as Democrats insist, in which case Obama’s restraint is difficult to defend, or the rhetoric is exaggerated, in which case his restraint helps expose it.

And if the party’s left threatens traditional liberalism, why won’t he confront it? If it represents the party’s future, why won’t he say so?

His warm reception of El-Sayed suggests a third possibility: The transformation Obama promised in 2008 is still under way, and he is content to let others finish it.

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Sarah Rice/Getty Images

Perhaps Obama believes his duty is done. Perhaps the party has moved somewhere he does not wish to follow. Perhaps he wants influence without ownership of the consequences.

Or perhaps the Democratic Party was always more useful to Barack Obama than Barack Obama intended to remain useful to the Democratic Party.

He once reminded successful Americans that they had benefited from institutions they did not create.

He was right about at least one American.

The Democratic Party helped build Barack Obama. Now the Democratic Party needs rebuilding.

Kennedy pointed to the moon. Reagan pointed to a certain wall he wanted torn down. Trump descended an escalator pointing toward a wall he wanted built.

Where is Barack Obama pointing the Democratic Party?

FACT CHECK: James Fishback Is Historically 'Influential Loser'

James Fishback hosted a "victory night" party on Tuesday to celebrate his winning performance in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary. Alas, things didn't pan out as he expected.

The post FACT CHECK: James Fishback Is Historically 'Influential Loser' appeared first on .