Last week, Democrats flipped a formerly red county blue in a special election in Texas Senate District 9, which covers part of Fort Worth and the neighboring suburbs of Keller and North Richland Hills. Taylor Rehmet, a young machinist with no political experience, beat Republican Leigh Wambsganss by more than 14 points.

Political commentator Bill King flagged the scale of the shift. He noted that Republican Kelly Hancock won the seat by 20 points in 2022 and that Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in the district by 17 points in 2024. A loss like this should worry Republicans heading into the midterms later this year.

In Texas and other red states, Republicans need to meet voters where they live.

So, what happened?

Some Republicans blame turnout. They argue the county hasn’t turned left; Democrats simply showed up and Republicans stayed home. On that theory, the result reflects motivation, not the district’s real preferences.

That explanation doesn’t hold.

A Republican candidate has the same opportunity to motivate voters as a Democrat. In a district with a large conservative majority, the Republican should enjoy a built-in advantage. She needs only a fraction of her base to turn out. The Democrat needs near-perfect performance from his side.

King also argues the result fits a broader trend. He says the numbers match polling over the last year and signal growing negativity toward Texas’ Republican leadership. Low turnout didn’t create the result so much as reveal it.

Rehmet’s win still doesn’t guarantee Democrats will take over Texas. But it does show a tactic that keeps working: Democrats run as generic moderates, keep the party label in the background, and dare Republicans to make the race about cultural signaling instead of daily life.

As writer Bill Scher noted in Washington Monthly, Rehmet didn’t “wrap himself in a Democratic flag.” Much like his counterparts in Virginia and New Jersey, he leaned on military service and blue-collar credibility. That presentation persuaded enough voters.

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That strategy works in the short term. It doesn’t last.

If and when he’s seated, Rehmet will vote as a Democrat. He will support open borders, softer law enforcement, higher spending, expanded abortion access, and the full suite of progressive social priorities. At best, he will block conservative reforms. At worst, he will push the same policies that Texans have seen wreck other places.

Voters in Tarrant County will learn the hard way what “affordability” talk usually delivers under Democratic rule: higher taxes, fewer opportunities, rising crime, and sanctimonious lectures about “reproductive rights,” all while public services strain under the load.

So, what does this election signal?

More Democrats will copy the Rehmet template. They will present themselves as normal, moderate, and practical. They will try to bait Republicans into fighting on secondary culture-war terrain instead of hammering a concrete agenda on costs, housing, and public safety. Wambsganss fell into that trap.

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In Texas and other red states, Republicans need to meet voters where they live. Prices keep climbing, and housing tops the list. I live in this part of the state and see the pressure every day.

Massive in-migration from other states (particularly California and Illinois), along with continued inflows from abroad (especially from South Asia), has driven up prices and changed the character of communities fast. Many newcomers are decent people. The economic effect still hits hard: higher rents, higher home prices, heavier traffic, and more strain on schools, roads, and emergency services. Property taxes keep rising to cover it.

Republicans should say that plainly, then offer an agenda that meets the moment. They should outline feasible steps to lower costs, expand housing supply where it makes sense, reduce regulatory friction, and protect public safety.

They should also draw the contrast without flailing: Democratic governance has turned too many prosperous places into expensive, dysfunctional messes. Texans don’t need to import that model.

Voters in red states also need to stop falling for the same performance. Democrats haven’t changed. They’ve changed the packaging.

They will do to the Lone Star State what they did to the Golden State. They will do to Dallas-Forth Worth what their allies have done to New York City. Texans should treat this moment as a warning, not a fluke: Stay alert, see through the ruse, and vote like it matters — because it does.