'Fool me once': CNN analyst has bad news for Democrats who believe recent polls



Recent polling generally indicates that congressional Democrats are poised to come out on top in the midterm election. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is not convinced, however — especially considering pollsters' track record.

"We've had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa," Enten told "CNN News Central" talking head John Berman on Wednesday.

'There's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold onto the United States Senate.'

A Marist Poll published on Wednesday showed U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 51%-44% in Michigan. The latest USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 47%-44% in Ohio. According to a Fox News survey conducted from Sept. 24-28, Democrat Josh Turek has a two-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in the U.S. Senate race in Iowa.

"Fool me once, shame on you," continued Enten. "Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question: Could it happen again?"

Enten highlighted how the GOP outperformed September 2024 polls concerning Senate races and the White House by 9 percentage points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 5 points in Michigan. That same September, national polls suggested that Kamala Harris would win a presidential election that she ultimately lost in a landslide.

"I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024," said Enten. "So you look at this, and you go, 'You know what? Maybe we should just hold on a second here because we've seen this dance before' — and it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually cast and counted."

RELATED: CNN analyst pours cold water on Democrats' dream of a political takeover in November

Emily Elconin/Getty Images

Berman insinuated that Trump not being on the ballot this time around might be a factor, but Enten noted that the lesson from the 2018 election — Trump's first midterm election — is that "it's the same exact story."

"The GOP outperformed September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by 6 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 8 points in Michigan," said Enten. "The bottom line is this: Over the last few [election] cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024 — Republicans have outperformed their September polls by at least 5 points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead."

The data analyst suggested further that if Republicans outperform their Midwest polls as they did in 2018 and 2024, then even with Democrats carrying states such as Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, there could end up being a 50/50 split in the U.S. Senate with Vice President JD Vance serving as the tie-breaker.

"So if history holds in terms of the GOP outperforming their September polls, well, there's a very, very strong chance that Republicans hold onto the United States Senate, even if Democrats win in places they don't historically win in, like Texas," said Enten.

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Talarico goes straight to Paxton’s voicemail — and turns it into a campaign ad



James Talarico scored some points with an easy political play: Pick up the phone, "call" Ken Paxton, and publicly challenge him to a debate.

The video quickly went viral, with Talarico urging his Republican opponent to join him on Fox News before Texans head to the polls.

The short clip shows Talarico on the phone, before saying, “Hey Ken, it’s James, I’m calling to invite you to a debate on Fox News. Texans start voting in less than a month, and they deserve to hear from both of us before they do. I’ve accepted four local TV debates, but we haven’t heard from you, and we’re running out of time."

“So if Fox News is where you’ll be most comfortable, I’ll be there because I think it’s that important. Bret Baier can moderate, we can both take questions, and Texans can hear from us directly,” he continued.


“So give me a call back, man. I look forward to hearing from you,” he added.

BlazeTV host Pat Gray wonders if Talarico’s confidence means he’s the “program director at Fox now.”

“We already cleared it with Bret. He’s got on the schedule,” Jeff Fisher laughs.

Executive producer Keith Malinak points out that at least four local stations have agreed to host the debate, but Paxton hasn’t answered the invite — which he calls “completely unacceptable from the Paxton camp.”

“The guy who’s ahead is the one who is begging for debates,” he adds.

The ad, Malinak and Fisher say, has been “effective.”

“It should be addressed,” Fisher says.

The ad was posted days ago, and there’s still been no response from Paxton.

“They actually didn’t return USA Today when they reached out for comment,” Malinak says.

“Does he want to win?” Gray asks.

“I don’t know,” Malinak answers, adding, “Honestly, I don’t believe he does at this point. The evidence points to no.”

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Exclusive: Texas Dem Talarico Caught In Lie On Trans Insanity

Unearthed footage exclusively obtained by The Federalist rips off the mask of Talarico’s phony 'moderating' position on trans issues.
Mitch McConnell’s Peace Sign Moment Just Dropped
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Mitch McConnell’s Peace Sign Moment Just Dropped

Democrat accused of wishing 'botched abortion' on woman, roughing up staffer, using 'fa**ot' as campaign spirals



Former tribal court judge Mary Peltola was voted out of Congress in 2024. Now, in an attempt to revive her political career, she is trying to unseat incumbent Sen. Daniel Sullivan (R) to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate.

Although Peltola has long enjoyed an edge over Sullivan in the polls, her campaign now appears to be spiraling.

'Mary Peltola’s closest aides describe a routine history of physical violence, explosive anger, and utter disdain for Alaskans.'

Weeks after senior campaign staffer Anton McParland abruptly left Peltola's team, the New York Times shed an unflattering light on some of the skeletons in the Democrat candidate's closet.

According to allegations from multiple former aides and text messages viewed by the Times, Peltola was allegedly a fan of using the words "faggot" and "retarded" in communications with her staff. In a text message earlier this year, she allegedly said of a commercial fisheries executive who posted a selfie with her, "F**k that retard."

While the Democrat's campaign denied that she used the word "faggot," it acknowledged that Peltola used the word "retarded" and said that she regretted doing so.

Given that both terms have re-entered the popular vernacular — even on the left — Peltola's alleged word choice is the least scandalous revelation in the report.

Former aides have characterized Peltola as something of an ill-tempered tyrant, accusing the Democrat candidate — who had the second-highest staff turnover rate in the U.S. House during her final year in office — of "angry and profane outbursts"; a tendency to jump up and down and stomp her feet when dissatisfied; allegedly shoving an aide; and supposedly cultivating a workplace so toxic that some staffers found themselves losing weight or in therapy.

RELATED: Iowa is flashing a giant red warning light for November

Jabin Botsford/Washington Post/Getty Images

Far more damning than the accounts of Peltola having her staffers feed her daughter's pet chameleon is the 2024 text message viewed by the Times in which the Democrat apparently said of a woman on the board of a Planned Parenthood chapter, "I hope she dies of a botched abortion."

Although Peltola is a pro-abortion Democrat, the 53-year-old was reportedly critical of Planned Parenthood in her final year in Congress in light of strategy differences regarding a defense bill that included pro-life policies.

The Peltola campaign has gone into damage control after the New York Times' report, painting her as a victim and insinuating that her allegedly abusive behavior was the result of grief.

Alaskans for Mary campaign spokesperson Harry Child said in a statement, "Mary suddenly and tragically lost both her mother and her husband in the span of a few months in 2023. At the time of their passing, Mary was parenting kids through their own grief, serving full-time in the U.S. House of Representatives thousands of miles from home, and running a competitive re-election campaign — all while shouldering the enormous burden of grief."

"Like any person who has gone through multiple personal tragedies in the span of a few months, Mary sometimes struggled to deal with her grief," continued Child. "But she treats her staff with respect and care, and she maintains close positive relationships with her staff spanning her nearly 30 years in public service. Exaggerating and outright lying about moments from the hardest period of her life, and falsely presenting them as a pattern of behavior, is wrong."

Peltola's campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Blaze News.

Alex Latcham, the executive director of the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, said in a statement obtained by Blaze News, "Mary Peltola’s closest aides describe a routine history of physical violence, explosive anger, and utter disdain for Alaskans, which makes her entirely unfit for the U.S. Senate."

"Peltola’s deeply offensive and disturbing comments do not represent the Alaska way, and she must publicly apologize to her staff and the people of Alaska."

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Report: Abdul El-Sayed Cheered On An Oppressive Islamist Regime’s Assault On The Press

The far-left candidate for Michigan Senate attacked Trump this week for 'interfering with the freedom of the press.'

Sour Patch: Abdul El-Sayed Is Weird About His Beard

Abdul El-Sayed gets really defensive when you mention his height. The Democrat from Michigan is 5-foot-8 (at most) in thick-soled shoes. He'd be one of the shortest men to serve in the U.S. Senate since the Spanish-American War. We haven't had a sub-5'8" president since William McKinley, who was elected in 1896 and born before the California Gold Rush.

The post Sour Patch: Abdul El-Sayed Is Weird About His Beard appeared first on .

Watch Pollster's Face as He Realizes How Much Worse It Just Got for Dems
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Watch Pollster's Face as He Realizes How Much Worse It Just Got for Dems

CNN analyst pours cold water on Democrats' dream of a political takeover in November



Pollsters and prediction markets are prophesying overwhelming Democratic success in the midterm election, which is now seven weeks away. CNN admitted in a recent analysis, however, that those hoping for a blue tidal wave might be left greatly disappointed in November.

Doom and gloom for the GOP

Polymarket presently suggests that Democrats have a 62% chance of taking the U.S. Senate and a 92% chance of taking the House. Kalshi similarly forecasts Democrats taking over the House and Senate.

'It’s going to be close.'

According to the Economist's latest midterm forecast, Democrats have a 93% chance of flipping the House and securing a 238-197 majority, and a 59% chance of taking the Senate.

The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats enjoying an eight-point edge on the generic ballot.

A recent NBC News poll found that while the Democratic Party is viewed more negatively than both President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, 50% of respondents favored Democratic control of Congress.

RELATED: The cost of living is coming for Congress

The Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service/Getty Images

Pollster Nate Silver argued on Sunday that the idea of the Senate as a "toss-up" is "misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump."

Blue disappointment?

In light of recent polling, the average price of gasoline sitting at an estimated $4.44 per gallon, and the sense that the midterm vote serves as a referendum on Trump's policies, hope is mounting on the left that a blue wave will wash away the Republican trifecta in Washington.

That hope may, however, be unfounded.

CNN political analyst Ronald Brownstein suggested just over a week ago that Democrats might not be in a position to exploit the president's waning public approval, Americans' economic woes, and growing political discontent.

In addition to noting that many Democratic candidates are not attracting the numbers of voters who disapproved of Trump in 2018 and 2020, Brownstein wrote that despite disenchantment among some voters on the right, few appear willing to turn coat.

"The share of non-MAGA Republicans who say they are still voting for Republicans this fall is about 20 points higher than the portion who approve of Trump’s performance," Brownstein wrote, citing GOP pollster Micah Roberts' analysis of CNBC survey data.

"There are a lot of people who may think, 'I don’t like Trump but ... I don't agree with the policies of the other party and where they would take us,'" said Roberts.

While Republican voters might not cast votes for Democratic candidates, Brownstein noted that the GOP still faces the possibility that disenchanted Republican voters might decide not to vote at all — a big problem given the enthusiasm among likely Democratic voters.

Voter enthusiasm might threaten Republicans' hold on power; however, the GOP's redistricting efforts have placed breakers before any blue wave.

After all, far fewer House seats are competitive now than were in 2018, and 13 House Democrats must now defend districts where Trump netted at least five points more than his share of the national vote, said Brownstein.

The CNN analyst cast greater doubt on Democrats' senatorial ambitions, noting that "of the Republican-held seats Democrats are most seriously contesting, Maine is the only one in a state that supported Harris; North Carolina is the sole other state on the Senate map where Harris even came close. Trump prevailed by double digits in every other state whose Senate seat Democrats are targeting."

Thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court's June ruling in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, the GOP — not similarly hard up for cash like the Democrats — also enjoys a financial advantage Brownstein reckons could be wielded to limit Democratic gains.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson told the New York Post earlier this month that instead of a blue or red wave this November, there will be "30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys."

"It’s just a handful of races, but every one of them will be decided by a few thousand votes. It’s going to be close," added Hudson.

The Cook Political Report projects that the GOP and the Democratic Party are set to win 208 and 205 House seats, respectively, and marked 21 seats as toss-ups.

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Democrats Aim To Win Rural Voters By Lying About ‘Moderation’

Democrats in general, and the Democratic Socialists of America in particular, are paying a lot more attention to rural America.