On the evening of March 25, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, experienced what many described as a political “stunner.” In a heavily Republican district — the 36th — Democrats pulled off an unexpected upset in a special state Senate election.

Josh Parsons, the Republican chairman of the Lancaster County Commission, lost by 482 votes to James Malone, the Democratic mayor of East Petersburg. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a reliably partisan Democrat, quickly congratulated Malone and praised the victory as a blow to “the extremism coming from D.C.” There’s little doubt Malone will vote in lockstep with Shapiro’s agenda.

The reality on the ground often looks very different from the national mood captured in polling data.

This result didn’t happen in a swing district. Lancaster County gave Donald Trump a 15-point margin in 2020 and has consistently voted Republican since before the Civil War. Since moving here more than 30 years ago, I’ve watched every state senator and nearly every county official win as a Republican. The same goes for our congressional representation.

Parsons’ predecessor, state Sen. Ryan Aument, regularly defeated Democrats by more than 2 to 1. In last week’s election, Libertarian candidate Zachary Moore claimed 480 votes — most of which likely would have gone to Parsons. But even with those votes, it’s unclear whether Parsons would have pulled off a win. And even if he had, a narrow victory would still fall far short of the GOP’s long-standing dominance in this district.

Democrats won in Lancaster County by mobilizing their strongest voting blocs — including a near-monopoly on college-educated white women and virtually all black women. Their state party also benefited from a flood of money provided by the usual group of culturally radical plutocrats.

Only 29% of registered voters in Lancaster County turned out last Tuesday. But Democrats ensured their supporters showed up.

I’ll be blunt: I find the happy talk on Fox News tiresome — the claims that Democrats are in decline and doomed to lose every major race outside deep-blue states until the end of time. If I were a betting man, I’d back the Democrats in any race where the parties are supposedly even.

Republicans may face another uphill battle in the upcoming Wisconsin Supreme Court race on April 1. That contest features Susan Crawford, a very progressive district judge from Dane County, against Brad Schimel, a conservative Milwaukee-area judge.

Despite Republican hopes, Crawford’s left-wing record draws major financial support from donors like Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, George Soros, and the usual crowd from Wall Street and Hollywood. So far, Democrats have raised more than double what Schimel has. Crawford has also built an army of volunteer campaigners from her left-wing base.

Many prominent GOP figures remain overly confident about their party’s electoral chances, but they often misread the data. They place too much stock in the Democratic Party’s low national poll numbers, failing to grasp that these figures don’t necessarily predict outcomes in specific races.

Democrats consistently energize their base by championing progressive cultural positions and railing against phony “fascism” and fictitious “Nazis.” This rhetoric motivates activists, who eagerly contribute time and money to causes they view as morally urgent. While outlets like the Washington Examiner lament “the toxicity” of Democratic rhetoric, voters on the left often find this language empowering. Just because conservatives recoil at inflammatory attacks from lawmakers like Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) doesn’t mean their base does.

The Democratic Party may hold just 29% approval nationally, but it maintains powerful institutional support, including public-sector unions and deep-pocketed donors. When government bureaucrats or teachers’ unions believe Donald Trump, Elon Musk, or other fiscal conservatives threaten their funding, they spring into action to protect their interests. These permanent-state allies don’t need high approval ratings — they need motivation, and they have it.

Low polling numbers alone won’t stop Democrats from flipping deeply red districts if they outspend Republicans by large margins and mobilize zealous volunteers. The reality on the ground often looks very different from the national mood captured in polling data.

In my own reliably Republican district, the national unpopularity of Democrats didn’t stop a surprise upset. What should have been a GOP lock turned into a “stunner” — and a warning.